A new environment strategy for the Macedon Ranges Fact Sheet - Climate Change Climate Change refers to changes in climate such as temperature, extreme weather events and rainfall, caused by an increase in the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is where warmth is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere due to gases absorbing and re-emitting heat. These greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. According to the 2013 State of the Environment report, Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise: between 1989–90 and 2010–11, total emissions increased by 12%. The report emphasises that emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reduced if we are to minimise the severity and impacts of climate change. However, the report also states that addressing climate change is ‘proving to be a difficult global challenge … especially because [it] is hard to visualise; it happens slowly, almost imperceptibly; and impacts may have long lead times’ (Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Victoria, 2013, p.34, available at https://www.ces.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Part-AChapter-1.pdf) Climatic changes in Victoria and the Macedon Ranges The 2014 State of the Climate report notes that data and analysis from both the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO show ongoing warming of the atmosphere and oceans in the Australian region. The report also notes that ‘warming has seen Australia experiencing more warm weather and extreme heat, and fewer cool extremes’ and that there ‘has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of Australia’ (Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organisation (CSIRO), 2014, p.3, available at http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/State-ofthe-Climate/2014-SoC-Report). Some key findings of the 2013 State of the Environment report regarding climate trends in Victoria are listed below (Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Victoria, 2013, p.36, available at https://www.ces.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Part-A-Chapter-1.pdf): Average temperatures in Victoria have risen by approximately 0.8°C since the 1950s. The severity, duration and frequency of heatwaves have increased. Between 1997 and 2009, Victoria experienced a record-breaking 13-year drought, the longest period of rainfall deficits on record. Over the past two decades, there has been a large decline in autumn rainfall, a small decline in winter and spring rainfall, a small increase in summer rainfall, and reduced frequency of wet years. Victoria experienced its highest summer rainfall on record in 2010-11. The record rainfall led to major flooding that affected a third of Victoria. What changes are likely in the Macedon Ranges? The likely changes to climate in the Macedon Ranges Shire have been summarised in the 2012 Macedon Ranges Climate Change Adaptation Report: Northern Macedon Ranges Southern Macedon Ranges Temperature (°C) Average +0.9 Range 0.6 to 1.2 Average +0.8 Range 0.6 to 1.1 Rainfall (%) Annual -4 -9 to +1 -4 Charlton Spring -7 -15 to +1 -7 Summer -1 -2 Autumn Winter Rainfall intensity -1 -4 +1.1 -2 -4 +0.9 -8 to +5 -11 to +1 -7.7 to 15.2 Charlton Charlton Southern coastal NSW Number of rainy days (%) Potential evaporation (%) -5 -11 to +10 -9 to +6 -14 to +2 -7.2 to 15.9 -17 to -1 -8 to no change -17 to no change -10 to +7 -6 -17 to -1 Charlton +3 +1 to +5 Northern Loddon Mallee Relative humidity (%) -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 to -0.1 Solar radiation (%) +0.7 +0.9 +0.2 to +1.7 Northern Loddon Mallee Northern Loddon Mallee Frosts (no.) 26 No change to +5 -1.5 to 0.1 No change to +1.6 29 to 22 2 20 to 1 Northern Loddon Mallee Hot Days (no.) Over 30° Over 35° Over 40° 52 14 2 50 to 57 13 to 16 1 to 2 34 11 2 33 to 37 10 to 13 2 to 2 Ouyen Ouyen Ouyen +2 Future Macedon Ranges climate will be similar to Ouyen Charlton Charlton (Macedon Ranges Shire Council (2012), Climate Change Adaptation Report, available at website: http://www.mrsc.vic.gov.au/Waste_Environment/Climate_Change), Possible impacts of climatic changes Translating these predicted changes into potential impacts is an inexact science. According to the Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2013, climate change is likely to impact on almost all aspects of life, including: • • • • • • • • • • Land use planning and the built environment Water (e.g. water supply and quality, impacts on sewerage and drainage systems, etc) Government buildings and built assets Business and industry (e.g. nature-based tourism). Agriculture, fisheries and forestry Biodiversity Waterways (e.g. impacts during droughts or flooding) Health and human services (e.g. increased demand for health services) Communities and culture (e.g. damage and loss of community infrastructure) Emergency management. (State of Victoria, 2013, available at http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/284044/4493_DSE_Climate_Change_Adaptation_Plan_ WEB.pdf) Addressing climate change in the shire Minimising climate change We can aim to lessen the extent of climate change by adopting actions that reduce resource use and greenhouse emissions, without decreasing the quality of services. These “mitigation” actions include reducing energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency, and reducing reliance on coal-fired power. Council does not have a current plan for mitigating climate change, such as a Greenhouse Action Plan. However, the following projects aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions are either underway or planned for 2015-2016: Commencing a staged changeover of old technology streetlights to energy efficient LEDs Including some energy efficient measures in the design of new Council buildings and major works, for example the new Gisborne Early Years Centre and the extension to the offices at Gisborne A feasibility study for installing solar panels on some key Council buildings. A comprehensive energy audit of the Kyneton Toyota Sports and Aquatic Centre, the Gisborne Aquatic Centre, and eight other council leisure facilities Adopting the default practice of changing over any lights within council buildings to more energy efficient lamps as they become due for replacement. Having a good understanding of greenhouse emissions and their sources will help Council make good decisions about minimising the impacts of its operations on climate change. Council’s (indicative) profile of greenhouse gas emissions at March 2015 is shown below. Of the total 7,087 tonnes of emissions, almost half are from electricity consumption from buildings, a quarter from electricity consumption by streetlights, 9 percent from mains gas, and the remainder from a mix of fuels used in Council’s fleet and operational vehicles. A more complete profile, based on data from 2014–2015, will be provided in the draft new environment strategy. (indicative) greenhouse emissions profile (tonnes CO2e) for Macedon Ranges Shire Council (March 2015) 1,248 electricity at buildings 630 3,513 electricity for streetlights mains gas 1,696 fuel for fleet (combined) Adapting to climate change Climate change adaptation involves taking actions to avoid, manage or reduce the impacts of a hotter, drier and more extreme climate, and to take advantage of opportunities that the changes may present. Council’s Climate Change Adaptation Report 2012 outlines a number of potential impacts of climate change on Council’s operations, and how these might affect service provision to the community. For example, an increased number of hot days, heatwaves and extreme events may impact recreation facilities, vulnerable people in the community, and volunteers. Council can plan for and make decisions about the way we manage these facilities and systems to minimise impacts on the community during climate change events. Where to from here? Council is keen to capture your interest and ideas in climate change to inform the development of a new environment strategy for the Shire. You are invited to complete a survey at the following link mrsc.vic.gov.au/yoursay. Your responses will be considered alongside responses from other community members and stakeholders, to help shape strategic directions for future work in addressing climate change. If you would like further information about the development of the new environment strategy, please contact Silvana on 5421 9659 or spredebon@mrsc.vic.gov.au.