Central Region Inter Agency Emergency Preparedness Risk Profile
(Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Ghazni)
July - 2014
Joint level: The first step of ERP is to assess the risks which all or part of a country's population face and which might impede, challenge or affect a humanitarian organization's capacity to
provide assistance.
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
1. Broad
Category
1.A
Risk
Description
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
Significant increase in Conflict (UNHCR to lead the collection of information)
Conflict
(inter
communal
or govt-AoG)
3
2
6
Indicator: A significant increase in the population that cannot access essential services
Source: UNHCR/UNICEF/WHO
Threshold: 10% increase
Monitored by: HCT
Previous
caseloads
Eight
basic
health
unit
(Clinics)
remained
closed)/
(UNICEF/
WHO/DoP
H
Education
facilities
closed: 19
education
facilities
remained
closed
(UNICEF/
DoPH)
Anticipated
caseloads
eight
health
facilities
and
19
clinics may
remain
closed
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
1.B
1.C
Risk
Description
Conflict
(inter
communal
or govt-AoG)
Conflict
(inter
communal
or govt-AoG)
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
4
1
04
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
Indicator: A significant increase in population that cannot be operationally assessed by
agencies
N/A
N/A
792
civilians
killed,
1663
civilians
injured in
2013
July- Dec
2014:
300 killed;
600
civilians
injured.
Source: UNHCR/IRC/IOM/UNICEF/ANDMA/PDMC
Threshold: 10% increase
4
4
16
Monitored by: HCT
Indicator: A significant increase in civilian casualties
Source: UNHCR/ICRC/AIHRC/UNAMA
Threshold: 15% increase
Monitored by: UNAMA human rights
Jan- June
2014: 240
civilians
killed; 591
civilians
injured.
(UNAMA
HRU)
1.D
1.E
Conflict(inte
r communal
or govt-AoG)
Conflict
(inter
communal
or govt-AoG)
3
4
12
Indicator: A significant increase in Human Rights violations
Source: UNHCR/ICRC/UNICEF/NGO/AIHRC/UNAMA
N/A
Threshold: 25% increase
Monitored by: UNAMA human rights
Indicator: A significant increase in internal displacement/ cross boarder displacements in
any one district or province
4
4
16
Source: UNHCR/ICRC/UNICEF/NGO/AIHRC/UNAMA
Threshold: 10% increase
Monitored by: UNHCR/IOM
. Jan-June
2014:
29058
cross
boarder
families
registered
as
JuneDecember
2014:
35,000
cross
boarder
displaced
families.
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
Risk
Description
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
displaced
(UNHCR/I
RC/ANDM
A
500 new
IDP’s from
JuneDeceber
397
families/3
242
individual
s
displaced
in 2013
Jan-June
214 169
families/1
162
individual
s
registered
as IDP
(UNHCR)
2.Broad
Category
2.A
Significant increase in attacks (direct & indirect)on humanitarian actors
Aid agencies
(staff and
assets) are
attacked
3
1
3
Indicator:
- A significant increase in attacks on humanitarian agencies compares to last year
same period.
- Criminal incidents against NGOs doubled this year compare to last year same period.
- Crime, abduction, and intimidation remain regular occurrences
Source: INSO/UNDSS
Threshold: Attacks on the compound or offices and staff of humanitarian agencies (as a
means of intimidation rather than harm).
Monitored by: HCT
Previous
caseloads
Three
incidents,
one
abduction
, one IED
and one
intimidati
on
recorded
in 2013.
Anticipated
caseloads
Three
incidents
direct
attack on
NGO office
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
Risk
Description
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
JanuaryJune
2014, two
incidents
one
abducatio
n and one
assasinati
on
of
national
NGO staff
recorded
(UNDSS,IN
SO)
3.Broad
Category
3.A
4.Broad
Category
Drastic deterioration in economic food access and population movement (FSAC/WFP to lead collecting information)
Rapid
increase of
price of
staple foods
(wheat,
wheat flour,
rice)
3
2
(Rationale: Moderate
impact on the overall
population during JulDec 2014, likely owing
to other sources of
income and food(more
labor work
opportunities in
summer and autumn,
other non-staple crop
harvests and
livestock).
(Rationale: Low
likelihood for rapid
price inflation during
Jul-Dec 2014 due to
expected same or
better wheat harvests,
stable or slightly
decreased price of
wheat, and
maintained smooth
supply of wheat and
wheat flour from
Pakistan and
Kazakhstan).
Disease (WHO to lead collecting information)
6
Indicator: Increased price of basic staple foods (wheat, wheat flour, rice)
Source: WFP Monthly Market Price Monitoring Bulletins
Threshold: ≥5% food price increase in one-month comparison; or ≥10% food price
increase in one-year, two-year or five-year -average comparisons.
Monitored by: FSAC
Previous
caseloads
Anticipated
caseload
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
4.A
5.Broad
Category
Risk
Description
Epidemics/
Outbreaks
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
3
3
9
(Rationale: raised it
to 3 since the
outbreaks are
expected due to
massive influx of
unvaccinated
children from cross
boarder NWA to
Paktika and Khost))
(Rationale:
outbreaks are
happening around
the year hence the
likelihood is high)
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
Indicator:
- # of outbreaks identified & confirmed
- Prevalence and incidence of disease marked
- Case fatality rate identified
Source: DEWS
Threshold: Case fatality rate for the disease exceeds international standards
Monitored by: Health cluster, WHO
Anticipated
caseload
Jan-July
2014: no
epidemics
reported,
only one
case of
Pakistani
child
displaced
from cross
boarder
confirmed
July-Dec
2014
Three
measles
outbreak
and eight
polio cases
expected
Previous
seasonal
caseloads
Jan-June
2014, 162
families
were
affected
(IOM,
ANDMA,
IRC) PIN
NGO data
is pending
at
this
time
Anticipated
caseload
Natural Disasters1
5.D
Flood
3
4
12
Indicator: Disaster affected people cannot meet their basic needs (food, water, shelter)
without international assistance
Source: PDMC, NDMC, OCHA, IOM, PIN operational aid agencies, media, etc.
With Ongoing
monsoon season
incidents of
floods might rise
1
Previous
caseloads
IOM RAF Data 2013; OCHA Incident Matrix 2013 and 2014.
Threshold: Small (<100 families) response within the province); medium (100-3,000
families) regional response; large (>3,000 families): national level response. (The numeric
thresholds are recommended by the SOP Task Force guidelines, while govt. is still
reviewing them, July 2014).
Monitored by: OCHA and N/PDMC
July-Dec
2014: 600
families
affected
from
Floods
South East region Risk Profile: July-December 2014
Risk No.
5.F
Risk
Description
Extreme/
harsh winter
Impact
Likelihood
Serious (Impact
(1/2/3/4/5)
(1/2/3/4/5)
x Likelihood)
3
9
3
With massive
influx of cross
boarder
displaced families
impact might
high for Jun-Dec
2014
Status Increased
Status No Changed
Triggers for stepping up preparedness
Indicator: Significant decrease in the average temperature and/or longevity of the
average winter
Source: PDMC, NDMC, OCHA, IOM, operational aid agencies, media, etc.
Threshold: Small (<100 families) response within the province); medium (100-3,000
families) regional response; large (>3,000 families): national level response. (The numeric
thresholds are recommended by the SOP Task Force guidelines, while govt. is still
reviewing them, July 2014).
Monitored by: OCHA and N/PDMC
Status Decreased
Jan- June
2014:
150
affected
families
(IOM)
July-Dec
2014: 1200
families
affected
from
extreme
winter
Impact
Negligible (1)
Likelihood
Very unlikely (1)
Minimal impact on the overall population and existing beneficiaries. Humanitarian actors are still able to
The event has a remote chance of arising — up to a
carry out their programmes, with almost no delays/losses. National response capabilities and those of
20% chance within the current year — and/or has
in-country stakeholders are high. Minimal impact on staff and assets.
occurred very infrequently, if ever, in the past.
Minor (2)
Unlikely (2)
Seriousne
ss
The seriousness
rating is the
Minor impact on the overall population and existing beneficiaries. Humanitarian actors are still able to
The event has a low chance of arising — between a
multiplication of
carry out their programmes, though with some delays/losses. National response capabilities and those
20% and 40% chance within the current year — or has
the impact risk
of in-country stakeholders are fairly high. Minor impact on staff and assets.
occurred a couple of times in the past.
ranking with the
Moderate (3)
Moderately likely (3)
Moderate impact on the overall population and existing beneficiaries. Programme delivery may be
The event has a possible chance of arising — between
hampered. Additional resources and activities within on-going programmes will be required to attend to
a 40% and 60% chance within the current year — or
system disruptions and heightened humanitarian needs. National response capabilities and those of in-
has occurred a few times in the past.
Drought
May
2000
2,580,000
Drought
July 2006
1,900,000
Drought
January
2011
1,750,000
Floods
13
January
2006
300,000
Drought
October
2008
280,000
Average Score:
Floods
July 1978
271,684
8-14
Floods
January
1972
250,000
Epidemic
January
2002
200,000
Extreme
Temperature
5
January
2008
170,684
Floods
June
1988
161,000
likelihood risk
Low
Average Score:
country stakeholders are medium. Some impact on staff and assets.
Severe (4)
Likely (4)
Severe impact on the overall population and existing beneficiaries. Programme delivery will significantly
The event has a probable chance of arising — between
be hampered. Substantial additional and activities within on-going programmes will be required to
a 60% and 80% chance within the current year — or
attend heightened humanitarian needs. National response capabilities and those of in-country
has occurred several times in the past.
1–7
Medium
High
stakeholders are low. Considerable impact on staff and assets
Critical (5)
For reference: The Centre for Research of
Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the
University of Brussels, the ten largest-scale
natural disasters that occurred in
Afghanistan
Disaster
Date
Number
Typology
of
People
Affected
Very Likely (5)
Major impact on the overall population and existing beneficiaries. Programmes and humanitarian
The event has a significant chance of arising — over
activities could be blocked. The event may require a massive humanitarian response. National response
80% chance within the current year — or has occurred
capabilities and those of in-country stakeholders are extremely low. Critical impact on staff and assets.
frequently in the past.
Average Score:
15-25
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster
Database, UniversitéCatholique de Louvain - Brussels –
Belgium,http://www.emdat.be/result-country-profile
[Accesses on 22 June 2014]