DRAFT Risk estimation and evaluation guide
You can estimate the risk from your hazards (table 1) and find out what you need to do to control the risk (table
4). Guidance on the likelihood of hazardous event (table 2) and consequence (table 3) are also included.
Consequence
Table 1: risk estimation.
Medium
Low
Very low
Very low
Very low
Catastrophic
Major
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
Very unlikely
High
Medium
Low
Low
Very low
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Low
Very high
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Unlikely
Fairly likely
Likely
Likelihood of hazardous event
Very High
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very likely
Table 2: Likelihood guidance.
Categories for
likelihood
Typical
occurrence
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Fairly likely
Likely
Very likely
There is a 1 in
million chance of
the hazardous
event happening.
There is a 1 in a
100,000 chance
of the hazardous
event happening.
There is a 1 in a
10,000 chance
the hazardous
event happening.
There is a 1 in a
1000 chance of
the hazardous
event
happening.
There is a 1 in a
100 chance of the
hazardous event
happening.
A few people
exposed to the
hazard
occasionally
Some people
exposed to the
hazard
occasionally
or
A few people
exposed some of
the time
Some of the
people exposed
to the hazard
some of the time
Risk_estimation_evaluation _guides_last updated January 2016
Many people
exposed to the
hazard some of
the time
or
Some people
exposed most
of the time
Typically
Many people
exposed to the
hazard most of
the time
Table 3: consequences guidance
Impact category
Harm to health
Insignificant
No significant
harm to health
Minor
Nuisance and
irritation;
temporary illheath leading to
discomfort
Moderate
dermatitis;
asthma; workrelated upper
limb disorders
Short term
sickness
absence
Major
Catastrophic
Ill- health leading to Acute fatal
permanent minor diseases; severe
disability. Partial
life shortening
hearing lost;
diseases;
permanent
Long term sickness substantial
absence
disability.
Ill health retirement
Injury
Other impacts
Minor injuries not Minor injuries
Worker
requiring first aid requiring first aid. incapacitated or
absent from
Superficial
work for up to 3
injuries, minor
days.
cuts and bruises;
eye irritation from Lacerations;
dust.
minor burns;
sprains
None
Warning letters
Civil claims for
from enforcement moderate
bodies or legal
amounts
action unlikely.
Local press
Claims unlikely
coverage
Worker
incapacitated or
absent from work
for more than 7+
days.
Fatal injuries.
Amputations.
Multiple injuries;
serious burns; loss
Lacerations; burns; of sight;
concussion;
major fractures.
serious sprains;
minor fractures.
Loss of
consciousness
caused by head
injury or asphyxia.
HSE investigation HSE investigation
leading to fees for leading to fees for
intervention
intervention.
Corporate
Improvement notice manslaughter or
high profile H&S
Prosecutions for
prosecution –
Unlikely to be
Some impact on minor offences
Crown court.
result in adverse staff morale.
leading to fines in Substantial fines,
press coverage Increased
magistrate’s court. imprisonment,
dissatisfaction,
Damage minor
reduced
Civil claims for
High profile civil
and causes no
cooperation and major amounts
claim (e.g. stress)
significant
productivity
or large arising
disruption
Part of building lost from major
RAE score
or temporary
incidents.
Cost of rectifying threatened
disruption to work
low
National press
Significant costs
coverage
Little or no impact
needed to remedy
on staff morale
Long term
Impact RAE score disruption to
RAE score
business.
unaffected
e.g.whole building
lost or activity
Risk_estimation_evaluation _guides_last updated January 2016
prevented by
damage,
contamination or
prohibition notice.
Major cost impact
to remedy.
Major impact on
staff morale.
Widespread
discontent. Poor
industrial relations.
Tribunals and
disputes. Failure to
recruit and retain
key staff.
Significant impact
on RAE score
Table 4. A simple risk-based control plan (risk evaluation).
Risk level
Guidance on necessary action and time scale
Very low
No further action. These risks are considered acceptable. Ensure controls are maintained
and reviewed regularly.
Low
No additional controls required unless they can implemented at very low cost, time and
effort. Actions to reduce risks are low priority. Ensure controls are maintained and reviewed
regularly or if there is a significant change.
Medium
Consider whether risks can be lowered, but the costs of additional risk reduction should be
taken into account. Risk reduction measures to be implemented in a defined time period.
Ensure controls are maintained and reviewed regularly or if there is a significant change.
High
Substantial efforts to reduce the risk. Risk reduction measures to be implemented urgently
within a defined time period. It may be necessary to suspend or restrict the activity.
Considerable resources might have to be allocated to additional controls. Maintain existing
controls rigorously.
Very high
Stop activity and take immediate action. Unacceptable risk and substantial risk control
improvements are necessary to reduce the risk. Work should be halted until risk controls are
implemented that reduce the risk so it is no longer very high. If it is not possible, work should
remain prohibited.
Risk_estimation_evaluation _guides_last updated January 2016