Upstream Petroleum and Resources Working Group Report to COAG Energy Council on Unconventional Reserves, Resources, Production, Forecasts and Drilling Rates Canberra, November 2014 Contents Introduction Key points Australian Unconventional Gas Reserves/Resources Scope and assumptions Definitions SPE PRMS Rate decline in unconventional wells Resource potential by jurisdiction General references Summaries: Queensland New South Wales Victoria Tasmania South Australia Western Australia Northern Territory Offshore areas 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 18 21 23 24 28 31 33 Introduction This report updates the 2013 report produced for the former Standing Council on Energy and Resources (SCER; now COAG Energy Council). The significant changes from the 2013 report are: Increase in Queensland’s 2P reserves from 35 435 PJ to 41 124 PJ, Decrease in New South Wales’ 2C resources from 7443 PJ to 4128 PJ, Northern Territory now reporting 257 276 PJ of prospective resources. In addition, some operators are now releasing more information on well production performance, but these are still limited to the average maximum rates and still do not provide the detailed well performance to fully assess deliverability risks. Page 2 of 33 Key points Current booked coal seam gas (CSG) reserves exceed current liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract requirements Current Queensland CSG reserves allocated to LNG projects total 28.8 Tcf (30 600 PJ) while contracted volumes total 24.3 Tcf (25 700 PJ) of gas. Arrow Energy has an additional 9.9 Tcf (10 500 PJ) of currently uncommitted gas. In addition, Santos has secured access to an additional 1.3 Tcf (1350 PJ) of conventional gas from the Cooper Basin and over 2 Tcf (2200 PJ) third party CSG supply agreements. Current drilling rates meet estimated required drilling rates for CSG wells Current drilling rates are similar to projected required drilling rates so should be sustainable in the longer term (see Figure 2.4). There is a risk of shortfall in rate of gas supply due to production capacity that is dependent on actual well production rates. The data required to estimate the magnitude of the risk is not currently available to Geoscience Australia The contracted gas volumes and projected drilling rates set a critical period from late 2015 through early 2019 where the required production rate per well will be at a maximum of between 400 000 and 500 000 cubic feet per day per well (if only gas resources allocated to the projects are considered) (Table 2.4). It is not clear to Geoscience Australia that production will be able to be sustained at this level for that duration and we do not currently have access to the data required to assess the risk. It is unlikely that other sources of unconventional gas will be able to supply any shortfall in production rate before 2020 The most mature source of unconventional gas that may be developed in the medium term is in the Cooper Basin. It is not anticipated that significant volumes of this gas will become available before 2020 and so will not be available to meet any shortfall in gas demand during the critical period for the CSG LNG projects. The future of coal seam gas resource development in New South Wales is not clear but it is unlikely that production could be ramped up in time to contribute to the current gas contracts. It is likely that any shortfall in production rate will be met firstly by transfer of gas between LNG projects including incorporation of Arrow’s gas reserves and secondly by diversion of conventional gas production from the Cooper Basin Page 3 of 33 Australian Unconventional Gas Reserves/Resources COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) The following table is used to sum the reserves and resources presented in the sections on each jurisdiction. This summation is not strictly correct for reasons discussed below but does give an indication of overall resource potential. PRODUCTION: 283 PJ in 2013 RESERVES 1P: 284 PJ RESERVES 2P: 43 743 PJ RESERVES 3P: 3 919 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 5 933 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 14 897 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 17 015 PJ UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate: 45 000 PJ PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 980 729 PJ PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate: 268 000 PJ UNRECOVERABLE NOTE: Not all jurisdictions have reported volumes for each category so totals may not be indicative of the distribution of resources across each category Table 1.1: Australian unconventional resources Scope and assumptions This report covers potential for tight oil and gas, shale oil and gas and CSG sourced from publicly available data published by operating companies, States authorities and other reporting bodies. Resource data is not available for many prospective basins and formations, so the following estimates of unconventional resources are likely to understate the potential. To become reserves, however, these resources will need a commercially viable gas price, suitable infrastructure and a market. It is probable that the majority of the resources, if proven to exist, will not be produced for decades. Unconventional resource potential from other resources such as oil shale, coal gasification or offshore methane hydrates has not been considered. Definitions A useful summary of the types and setting of unconventional resources can be found in Chapter 1 of ACOLA Report 6 “Securing Australia’s Future – Engineering energy: unconventional gas production” (see link in Reference) and in the “Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in South Australia” (see link in Reference) which also includes a brief description of the Society of Petroleum Engineers Petroleum Resources Management System (SPE PRMS) resource reporting system in Chapter 1. Page 4 of 33 The following definitions have been adopted in listing the prospective formations in each jurisdiction: Inactive – The formation may contain a resource but there is no current activity Preliminary exploration – The formation is being actively explored Under assessment – The formation is being tested for its ability to produce commercially Producing – The formation is currently producing SPE PRMS The Society of Petroleum Engineers has published the Petroleum Resources Management System (SPE PRMS) to standardise the reporting of petroleum reserves and resource volumes. The reporting matrix lists reserves and resources by chance of commerciality in the vertical direction and technical uncertainty in the horizontal direction. PRODUCTION COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) It should be noted that only petroleum that is developed or is part of a current development project can be booked as reserves and petroleum that has been demonstrated to exist through exploration and testing can be booked as a contingent resource; the remainder should be booked as a prospective resource. There is a possibility that a contingent resource or a prospective resource may never become recoverable due to cost or the limitations of technology. A prospective resource may not exist at all as the assumptions or correlations used to predict its existence may found to be invalid. RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Table 1.2: PRMS matrix Resource estimates range from estimates of the number of methane molecules in all the rocks in a basin, through estimates of the volume that could be produced without consideration of technical factors and economics to the amount likely to be produced given current technology and commercial considerations. It is important to consider the nature of these different types of estimates when looking at resources in the PRMS matrix. Geoscience Australia’s view of the relationship between these types of estimate is summarised below. Page 5 of 33 The published literature indicates that, for shale gas wells at least, only the volume accessed by the fracturing process (the “stimulated rock volume”) contributes to production. Within this volume the recovery can be as high as 70% of the petroleum initially in place (PIIP in the PRMS matrix above). This stimulated rock volume does not, however, connect with all of the petroleum-bearing rock as the fractures are not evenly spaced and new fractures generated too close to current fractures or natural fracture networks may follow the pre-existing fractures. This means that, even with a recovery as high as 70%, the overall production may only recover about 30% of the petroleum initially in place in the developed area. In addition, not all of the petroleum-bearing rock has properties that are suitable for commercial development. The rock layers may become too thin or not contain sufficient petroleum to support commercial operations or the rock properties may vary so a suitable fracture network cannot be established. This may further reduce overall recovery so that the recoverable portion of the resource is of the order of 5 to 10% of the petroleum initially in place. As a result, when a prospective formation is explored and developed the assessed petroleum volumes associated with the formation can decrease markedly as the resource estimates mature from petroleum in place and prospective resource to contingent resources, reserves and production. It is probable that this sort of relationship between initial in place volumes and reserves and production holds for other types of unconventional resources. A description of the definitions used in the system is on the SPE website (see link in Reference). A non-technical guideline and the full guideline, including sections on estimation of different types of unconventional resource are also available (see links in Reference). Rate decline in unconventional wells Conventional gas wells in good quality reservoirs typically sustain high rates of production over many years. This is due to the high degree of connectivity in the reservoir; the well is connected to a substantial portion of the gas in place and can produce gas from distant parts of the petroleum bearing rock. Unlike conventional gas wells, both shale gas wells and coal seam gas wells are only connected to the coal or rock immediately surrounding the well bore or adjacent to any natural or induced fracture network that may be present. This results in a production profile that is characterised by an initial period of high production followed by a steep decline in production rate and a long production “tail” that may last for a decade or more. This is caused by initial rapid depletion of the gas in the fractures followed by slower desorption of gas from the organic material in the shale or coal as reservoir pressure is lowered during production. This is shown in the production performance for Beach Energy’s Halifax 1 shale gas well in the Cooper Basin. Page 6 of 33 4.50 million cubic feet per day 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Month Halifax 1 production rate (million cubic feet per day) Source: Beach Energy press releases Figure 1.1: Halifax 1 gas production While not directly comparable, coal seam gas wells follow a similar production profile to shale gas wells after an initial period of dewatering. This is illustrated in the figures below: Source: Moore, T. A., Coalbed methane: A review Figure 1.2: Coal seam gas well decline Page 7 of 33 Figures B and C show wells where the gas production has reached a peak and is now declining; to 60 per cent of peak after one year in Figure B (from the Bowen Basin) and to 30 per cent of peak after four years in Figure C. While the overall production profile is usually similar, the timing of peak and decline has been observed to vary markedly, even within a small area of the same resource. This is discussed further in the section on Queensland resources. Resource potential by jurisdiction The body of the report presents data on unconventional resources in each onshore jurisdiction. The unconventional resource potential section includes listing of the basins and formations that are currently thought to be prospective, including the type(s) of resource thought to be present and the current exploration and development status of the formation. The reserves/resources section is a compilation of the reserves and resources, which are listed according to Geoscience Australia’s best estimate of where they should be placed in the SPE PRMS matrix. The totals are a summation of each of the categories of reserve or resource but it should be noted that this is not strictly statistically correct except for 2P/2C/Best Estimate categories and will underestimate 1P/1C/Low Estimate reserves and resources and overestimate 3P/3C/High Estimate reserves and resources. This is due to the probabilistic nature of the estimates. For this reason, only the 2P/2C/Best Estimate reserves and resources summation should be regarded as a reliable estimate of potential. The production/forecasts section forecast has been prepared from published contracted gas volumes for LNG in Queensland. The unconventional resource drilling activity section tabulates drilling activity. The commentary section includes Geoscience Australia’s observations on the status of unconventional resources in the jurisdiction and any caveats that should be applied in interpreting the data. General references ACOLA Report 6 Securing Australia’s Future – Engineering energy: unconventional gas Production http://www.acola.org.au/PDF/SAF06FINAL/Final%20Report%20Engineering%20Energy%20June%202013. pdf Beach Energy http://www.beachenergy.com.au/irm/archive/asx-announcements3.aspx DMITRE South Australia http://www.petroleum.dmitre.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/179621/Roadmap_Unconventional _Gas_Projects_SA_12-12-12_web.pdf Drill, Baby, Drill http://www.postcarbon.org/reports/DBD-report-FINAL.pdf EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/ Moore, T. A., Coalbed methane: A review, International Journal of Coal Geology 101 (2012) 36– 81 SPE Guidelines for Application of the Petroleum Resources Management System http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf Page 8 of 33 SPE Petroleum Resources Management System http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Petroleum_Resources_Management_System_2007.pdf SPE Petroleum Resources Management System Guide for Non-Technical Users http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_guide_non_tech.pdf RFC Ambrian Australian Unconventional Oil & Gas http://www.armourenergy.com.au/assets/downloads/investment_research/2013/09-2013_rfcambrian_australian-unconventional_oil_and_gas_report_.pdf Page 9 of 33 Queensland Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Laura Basin Dalrymple Sandstone Maryborough Basin Maryborough Formation Tiaro Coal Measures Burrum Coal Measures Clarence-Moreton Basin Walloon Coal Measures Surat Basin Walloon Coal Measures Bowen Basin Black Alley Shale Tinowon Formation Moranbah Coal Measures Baralaba Coal Measures Fort Cooper Coal Measures Rangal Coal Measures Bandanna Formation Eromanga Basin Winton Formation Toolebuc Formation Birkhead Formation Westbourne Formation Poolowanna Formation Cooper Basin Toolachee Formation Roseneath Shale Epsilon Formation Murteree Shale Patchawarra Formation Galilee Basin Betts Creek Beds Aramac Coal Measures Bandanna Formation Lake Galilee Sandstone Adavale Basin Log Creek Formation Lissoy Sandstone Cooladdi Dolomite Georgina Basin Arrinthrunga Formation Inca Shale Thorntonia Limestone Beetle Creek Formation Georgina Limestone Mount Isa Superbasin Lawn Hill Shale Termite Range Formation Riversleigh Siltstone Styx Basin Tight gas Shale gas CSG Status Inactive Inactive Inactive Preliminary exploration Under assessment Producing Preliminary exploration Under assessment Producing Producing Under assessment Under assessment Producing * Inactive Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Inactive Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Preliminary exploration Inactive Preliminary exploration Page 10 of 33 Styx Coal Measures Ipswich Basin Tivoli Formation *Unconventional oil and gas potential Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Table 2.1: Queensland unconventional resource potential COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: PRODUCTION: 264.3 PJ (2012-13)* RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P: 41 124 PJ* RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 164 000 PJ** PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Source: *Queensland production and reserves statistics as at 31/12/2013, Queensland’s petroleum exploration, development and potential 2012-13,**ACOLA Report 6 Securing Australia’s Future – Engineering energy: unconventional gas production (Bowen and Clarence-Moreton shale gas), EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment (Maryborough shale gas), Independent Expert’s Report for Armour Energy Limited (Mount Isa Superbasin) Table 2.2: Queensland unconventional resources Coal seam gas reserves have increased markedly from 2007 as drilling accelerated to prove up reserves for the LNG projects as shown in the graph below (1 Tcf is approximately equal to 1000 PJ). Sustained drilling in the last three years has not seen significant changes in reserves, except for the QGCLNG project, which booked about 3 Tcf additional gas reserves in 2013 through its drilling program (Figure 2.1). Page 11 of 33 14.000 12.000 Reserves (Tcf) 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 1/1/2005 1/1/2007 GLNG 1/1/2009 QGCLNG 1/1/2011 APLNG 1/1/2013 Arrow Figure 2.1: Queensland reserves growth in coal seam gas for LNG projects Production/Forecasts: The current total annual gas production for the State was about 320 PJ in 2013 (41 PJ of conventional gas and 280 PJ of coal seam gas, the equivalent of about 6 MT/a LNG). In contrast, the forecast gas demand to supply the CSG LNG projects will be about 25 MT/a or almost 1400 PJ/a for a total of 18.5 Tcf (19 400 PJ) of gas. This is shown by contract in the graph below, compiled from published LNG export volumes. A portion of the QCLNG gas (top light blue bars) may be sourced internationally. Page 12 of 33 Contracted volumes 30 Contracted volumes (MT/a) 25 20 15 10 5 0 GLNG GLNG APLNG APLNG APLNG QGCLNG QGCLNG Figure 2.2: Contracted volumes by year for Queensland coal seam gas for LNG projects Unconventional resource drilling activity: High. Drilling activity has been high, in preparation for LNG exports. The number of wells drilled per month and the cumulative total of coal seam gas wells are shown in the graph below. Page 13 of 33 140 6000 120 5000 100 4000 80 3000 60 2000 40 Cumulative number of wells Number of wells per month Queensland CSG drilling activity 1000 20 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Cumulative wells Completed wells Abandoned wells Figure 2.3: Well drilling rates and cumulative coal seam methane wells drilled In order to sustain the high rate of production required for the LNG projects, an equally high rate of drilling will be required. The graph below shows the projected drilling for the LNG projects, based on published data. This by far exceeds all other petroleum related activity in the State. Queensland CSG drilling activity 16000 Cumulative number of wells 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Year Cumulative wells Projected drilling Figure 2.4: Historic and proposed cumulative coal seam methane wells Page 14 of 33 Commentary: Coal seam methane reserves booked by the three CSG LNG projects along with contracted LNG volumes are tabulated below. The current reserves appear to be sufficient to cover the current contracts. Project Reserves Tcf (PJ) APLNG* 12.6 (13 382) GLNG# 6.4 (6780) QCLNG@ 12.4 (13 200) Arrow 9.9 (10 500) Table 2.3: Coal seam gas resources and LNG contracted volumes Contracted volume Tcf (PJ) 8.6 (9116) 7.2 (7600) 8.5 (9000) - *: 2P value, see http://www.originenergy.com.au/news/files/asx_investor_site_tour_presentation.pdf #: 2P + 2C value. See http://www.santos.com/library/2014_09_15_%20CLSA%20presentation.pdf@: Resource estimates from Queensland Department, contract information from http://www.qgc.com.au/media/239458/bg_fsheet_2013_lng_v2.pdf @: http://www.qgc.com.au/media/239458/bg_fsheet_2013_lng_v2.pdf The current reserves for GLNG project may not be adequate to fulfil the contracts. Over 2 Tcf (2200 PJ) third party gas supplies have been arranged (Table 2.4). Supplier Santos portfolio ‘Horizon’ Origin Origin Other suppliers Meridian JV Combabula/ Spring Gully Quantity 750 PJ 365 PJ 194 PJ1 TJ/day Starts Delivery point Term Price basis 2015 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 15 years 10 years 5 years 7 years 21 months 20 years Wallumbilla Wallumbilla Wallumbilla Oil-linked Oil-linked Oil-linked 85 PJ 445 PJ2 140 100 50-1001 10-15 60-100 20-65 Wallumbilla GLNG GTP Oil-linked Oil-linked3 355 PJ4 30-50 2015 30 years Fairview Oil-linked Table 2.4: Third party gas supplies arrangement for GLNG project 1 100 PJ firm volume over 5 years. Origin has the option to supply additional volumes of up to 94 PJ during the same period. 2 Source: WestSide Corporation Target Statement of 16 May 2014. Excludes additional gas production by the Meridian Joint Venture beyond 65 TJ/day. Volumes subject to Meridian field production performance and implementation of expansion plans. 3 Oil-linked from 2016. 4 Santos share 2P reserves in the APLNG-operated Combabula, Spring Gully and Ramyard fields at the end of 2013. The CSG LNG projects have also published projected drilling programs and these can be combined with the contracted LNG volumes to estimate a required average production rate per well. These are tabulated for the three projects below in millions of cubic feet per well per day. Page 15 of 33 QUARTER 2014 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2016 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2017 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2018 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2019 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2020 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2021 1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 4Q 2022 1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q GLNG 0.115 0.217 0.412 0.393 0.421 0.403 0.429 0.411 0.435 0.418 0.440 0.425 0.444 0.430 0.416 0.404 0.434 0.421 0.410 0.398 0.388 0.378 0.368 0.359 0.351 0.342 0.335 0.327 0.320 0.313 0.306 0.300 APLNG 0.390 0.371 0.433 0.411 0.634 0.605 0.578 0.553 0.531 0.510 0.491 0.473 0.457 0.441 0.427 0.414 0.401 0.389 0.378 0.367 0.357 0.348 0.338 0.328 0.319 0.311 0.302 0.295 0.288 0.281 QCLNG 0.290 0.275 0.262 0.250 0.565 0.536 0.510 0.486 0.465 0.445 0.427 0.410 0.395 0.380 0.367 0.355 0.343 0.332 0.322 0.312 0.303 0.295 0.287 0.279 0.272 0.265 0.258 0.252 0.246 0.241 0.235 0.230 0.225 0.220 0.216 0.211 TOTAL 0.132 0.125 0.119 0.113 0.284 0.298 0.453 0.433 0.451 0.433 0.501 0.483 0.476 0.461 0.456 0.442 0.438 0.426 0.415 0.404 0.405 0.395 0.386 0.378 0.370 0.362 0.355 0.348 0.341 0.334 0.328 0.322 0.316 0.311 0.306 0.301 Table 2.5: CSG production rates needed to fulfil LNG contracted volumes (mmscf/well per day) The table shows that for the period 3Q 2015 to 1Q 2019, the production rate will need to be maintained at between 400 000 and 500 000 cubic feet per day per well across all three projects. Within each project the required peak rate can be even higher. The risk associated with this may explain the recent gas sharing agreement between the CSG LNG projects and the connection of the Arrow resources. While the projected drilling rate appears to be sustainable, based on drilling rates to date, the estimation of required wells is only valid for a given productivity per well; that is, if the peak production per well is less than anticipated or the production rate per well declines more rapidly to a lower production “tail” with time, more wells will be required to meet the contracted volumes. The actual well productivity is only known after dewatering has been completed and it is unlikely that this has occurred for the majority of coal seam gas wells for the LNG projects. Limited data on well rates is available in the public domain suggests “peak 7day average gas rate” of 650 000 cubic feet per day per well with a median rate of 550 000 cubic feet per day per well in the Berwyndale South Walloon Coal Measures accumulation. The longer term sustained production rate is not known. Recently, Origin presented that for wells that have been online for more than six months, the observed maximum average well production rates were 2.1 TJ/d per well (equivalent to 2 mmscf/d per well) for the Talinga project and 1.1 TJ/d (about 1 mmscf/d per well) for the Spring Gully project, higher than its expectation of 1.2 TJ/d per well on average of its Phase 1 drilling Page 16 of 33 operation (see link below). These production rates appear to meet the required rates for the contracted demand (Table 2.5). For GLNG project, Santos stated that the performance of Fairview wells continues to exceed expectations with average optimum gas capacity of 2.2 TJ/day per well. Roma wells are on line and are dewatering, supporting individual well capacity of 0.5 TJ/day; Roma 02- 04-01 well are producing over 1 TJ/day. All this information is still limited to the average peak production rates per well. No longer term sustained production rates are available to us. So, no definitive statement can be made about the likely long term rate from coal seam gas production in Queensland although it seems likely that additional sources of gas may be required to meet contract commitment. If required, the most probable source of this gas outside the area of coal seam gas development would be the conventional resources in the Cooper Basin. This was indicated in the Santos Annual Report 2012 which stated GAS SUPPLY BUILD CONTINUES To execute the most efficient gas supply for the project, gas will be sourced from the dedicated CSG fields, underground storage, supply from Santos’ portfolio and third parties. In 2012, 143 wells were drilled in the project’s CSG acreage, with the gas produced supplied to domestic gas contracts and the remainder injected into underground storage. A further 200 to 300 wells are planned to be drilled each year from 2013 to 2015. Additional gas supply agreements for a total of 595 PJ were signed with third parties in 2012 for gas supply to the GLNG project, adding to the 750 petajoules that Santos has agreed to supply, primarily from the Cooper Basin. References: Armour Energy http://www.armourenergy.com.au/investors/investment-research (7-August-2013) Changes in Completion Strategy Unlocks Massive Jurassic Coalbed Methane Resource Base in the Surat Basin, Australia, R.L. Johnson, SPE, S. Scott and M. Herrington, Queensland Gas Co. Ltd., SPE 101109 Independent Expert’s Report for Armour Energy Limited http://www.empireenergy.com/pdf/McArthur%20Basin%20Armour%20Co%20Ltd%20Ind.%20Geo's%20R eport.pdf Origin APLNG Operational Review and Asset Visit (May 2014) http://www.originenergy.com.au/news/files/asx_investor_site_tour_presentation.pdf BG Group’s LNG business: http://www.qgc.com.au/media/239458/bg_fsheet_2013_lng_v2.pdf Queensland’s petroleum exploration, development and potential 2012-13 http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/coal-pdf/queenslands-petroleum-2014.pdf Queensland’s unconventional petroleum potential http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/coal-pdf/qld-unconventional-2014.pdf Queensland’s coal seam gas overview http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/coal-pdf/csg-update-2014.pdf Queensland production and reserves statistics http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/mining/production-reserves-statistics.htm Santos Annual Report 2012 http://www.santos.com/Archive/NewsDetail.aspx?p=121&id=1367 Santos GLNG contracted resources and well production rates http://www.santos.com/library/2014_09_15_%20CLSA%20presentation.pdf (pages 113-14) Page 17 of 33 New South Wales Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Tight gas Clarence-Moreton Basin Walloon Coal Measures Ipswich Coal Measures Nymboida Coal Measures Surat Basin Walloon Coal Measures Gunnedah Basin Black Jack Formation Maules Creek Formation Sydney Basin Narrabeen Group Bulgo Sandstone Colo Vale Sandstone Illawarra Coal Measures Wittingham Coal Measures Newcastle Coal Measures Tomago Coal Measures Greta Coal Measures Shoalhaven Group Clyde Coal Measures Gloucester Basin Gloucester Coal Measures Ashford Basin Ashford Coal Measures Shale gas CSG Status Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Inactive Producing Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Table 3.1: New South Wales unconventional resource potential COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: PRODUCTION: 3 PJ in 2013 RESERVES 1P: 284 PJ RESERVES 2P: 2 619 PJ RESERVES 3P: 3 919 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 527 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 4 128 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 3 757 PJ UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 14 401 PJ PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Source: NSW Department of Resources and Energy, July 2014 (CSG in the Sydney, Gunnedah, and Clarence-Moreton Basins); APPEA 2013 production statistics Table 3.2: New South Wales unconventional resources Page 18 of 33 Production/Forecasts: The only unconventional gas produced in NSW is from AGL’s Camden Gas Project, which produces about 5 per cent of the State’s gas supply, averaging approximately 6 PJ per annum. NSW currently consumes approximately 160 PJ per annum of natural gas (Santos Ltd 2013). No significant increases in production are forecast in the short term but applications have been submitted to the NSW Department of Planning for AGL’s Gloucester Gas Project and Santos’s Narrabri Gas Project. The Gloucester Gas project proposes to produce up to 30 PJ per annum for 30 years, and the Narrabri Gas project proposes to produce up to 73 PJ per annum for 25 years. For now it is uncertain as to when these projects will finalise the approval process and begin producing. EXPECTED ANNUAL NORTHWEST NSW CSG PRODUCTION Source: The Allen Consulting Group (2011) Figure 3.1: Proposed gas production from the Narrabri Coal Seam Gas project Unconventional resource drilling activity: Currently low. Number of Unconventional Petroleum Wells Drilled in NSW 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: NSW Department of Resources and Energy, July 2014 Figure 3.2: Drilling activity in New South Wales Page 19 of 33 Commentary: In addition to the CSG resources identified to date, conventional and tight gas resources may also be present, either in sandstones associated with the coal seams or independent of them. A number of gas accumulations have been discovered in the Sydney Basin but these typically produce gas at a rapidly declining rate from vertical wells, indicating tight reservoirs or limited reservoir extent. Current drilling technology may make further investigation of these discoveries viable. References: APPEA Petroleum Production Statistics 2013 http://www.appea.com.au/?attachment_id=5432 Cadman, S. J. and Pain, L., (1998) Bowen and Surat Basins, Clarence-Moreton Basin, Sydney Basin, Gunnedah Basin and other minor onshore basins, Queensland, NSW and NT. Australian Petroleum Accumulations Report 11, Bureau of Resource Sciences, Canberra Inaugural Report to the Standing Council on Energy and Resources (SCER), NSW Department of Resources and Energy, August 2013 The Allen Consulting Group, The economic impacts of developing coal seam gas operations in Northwest NSW, Report to Santos, December 2011 http://www.allenconsult.com.au/resources/acgeconomicimpactcoalseam2011.pdf Santos Ltd (2013) Inquiry into downstream gas supply and availability in NSW, Santos submission to NSW Legislative Assembly, State and Regional Development Committee, 21st June 2013, http://www.santos.com/library/Inquiry_into_downstream_gas_supply_and_availability_ Santos_submission.pdf Page 20 of 33 Victoria Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Tight gas Shale gas CSG Gippsland Basin Lakes Entrance Formation * Strzelecki Formation * Otway Basin Pretty Hill Formation Sawpit Shale Casterton Formation * *Unconventional oil and gas potential **Activities suspended due to current State moratorium on fracture stimulation. Status Inactive Under assessment** Inactive Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Table 4.1: Victorian unconventional resource potential PRODUCTION COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 403 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 755 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 1 212 PJ UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 452 PJ* PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Source: Lakes Oil, includes Wombat, Trifon, Gangell and North Seaspray tight gas except for *Wombat only Table 4.2: Victorian unconventional resources Production/Forecasts: None. Unconventional resource drilling activity: nil. Commentary: The difficulties of developing the tight gas resource in proximity to ample supplies of conventional gas offshore have been compounded by the recent moratorium on fracture stimulation which will be required to prove the commercial viability of these reservoirs. This has provided little incentive to explore further in the region. Page 21 of 33 References: Lakes Oil website http://www.lakesoil.com.au/index.php/reports-and-announcements/category/announcements-2010 10-August-2010 http://www.lakesoil.com.au/index.php/reports-and-announcements/category/announcements-2009 1-July-2009 Page 22 of 33 Tasmania Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Tight gas Shale gas CSG Tasmania Basin Woody Island Formation *+ *+ *Unconventional oil and gas potential + nature of resources yet to be determined Status Inactive Table 5.1: Tasmanian unconventional resource potential Reserves/Resources: None. Production/Forecasts: None. Unconventional resource drilling activity: None. Commentary: While there is prospectivity for both conventional and unconventional resources in Tasmania, there have been no discoveries and limited exploration undertaken to date. References: The Tasmania Basin – Gondwanan Petroleum system http://www.mrt.tas.gov.au/mrtdoc/tasxplor/download/02_4832/Tasmaniax.pdf Page 23 of 33 South Australia Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Tight gas Shale gas CSG Status Eromanga Basin Winton Formation Inactive** Cooper Basin Toolachee Formation Under assessment*** Roseneath Shale Under assessment*** Epsilon Formation Under assessment*** Murteree Shale Under assessment*** Patchawarra Formation Under assessment*** Warburton Basin Pando Formation Inactive Dullingari Group Inactive Kalladeina Formation Inactive Mooracoochie Volvcanics * Inactive Pedirka Basin Purni Formation Inactive Simpson Basin Peera Peera Formation Inactive Officer Basin Observatory Hill Formation * Inactive Ouldburra Formation Inactive Narana Formation Inactive Dee Dee Mudstone Inactive Arckaringa Basin Mount Toondina Formation Preliminary exploration Stuart Range Formation * Preliminary exploration Otway Basin Pretty Hill Formation Inactive Sawpit Shale Preliminary exploration Casterton Formation * Preliminary exploration *Unconventional oil and gas potential **Preliminary exploration showed coal thickness and gas content currently below commercial thresholds ***Minor production Table 6.1: South Australian unconventional resource potential The nature of these resource plays is fully described in Chapters 2 and 4 of the “Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in South Australia”. Page 24 of 33 PRODUCTION COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 1 725 PJ* CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 5 395 PJ** CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 6 807 PJ* UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate: 45 000 PJ*** PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 118 000 PJ* PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate: 268 000 PJ*** UNRECOVERABLE Source: *Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects, pages 91-2, Santos Cooper Basin Unconventional Gas Opportunities and Commercialisation, page 6, includes PGA Prospective Resource Best Estimate, ** As for * plus Beach Energy, *** As for * plus Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects, page 108 Table 6.2: South Australian unconventional resources Production/Forecasts: Minor production from recent shale gas exportation wells. Santos plan “material commercial shale production and reserve bookings by 2015/16 underpinning Cooper development beyond 2020” suggesting larger scale production by the end of the decade (Santos Cooper Basin Unconventional Gas Opportunities and Commercialisation). The challenges associated with accelerating shale gas production are described at pages 158 and 159 of the Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in South Australia (see link below). Beach Energy, Drillsearch and Senex are also actively exploring the REM and Patchawarra resource while Beach Energy and Strike Energy are assessing coal seam gas potential in the southern Cooper Basin. Beach booked 2P+2C unconventional resources of 362 mmbbloe in the Cooper Basin, equivalent to 2.168 Tcf of gas. For PRLs 33 to 48 and ATP 855 along, net 1.6 Tcf 2C resources was booked for Beach Energy (see the link below). Contingent unconventional gas resources totalling more than 5 Tcf have been identified in the South Australian Cooper Basin by the Cooper Basin Joint Venture (operated by Santos), Beach Energy and Senex Energy, approaching the total sales gas production from the Basin to date. Cooper Energy is investigating the shale gas potential of the Otway Basin. There is no production forecast associated with this activity. Unconventional resource drilling activity: Moderate. Explorers have accelerated appraisal of Cooper Basin unconventional plays since the first exploration well to test these plays was drilled in 2010 (Table 1). Following on from 13 vertical Page 25 of 33 wells to test unconventional gas plays in 2012, 13 wells were drilled during 2013 (Table 6.2). In December 2012, Beach Energy spudded Holdfast, the first dedicated horizontal well to test shale gas deliverability in the State. Fracture stimulation and flow testing programs have also gathered pace. Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 No. of Wells Drilled 2 2 13 13 Source: Department of State Development, South Australia Table 6.2. Number of wells targeting natural gas in unconventional reservoirs, SA. In 2013, Santos drilled Moomba 192, Moomba 194 and Roswell 2 horizontal wells targeting deep unconventional gas plays in the Moomba Field and Van der Waals 1 and Langmuir 1 in the Nappamerri Trough. Santos announced in December 2013 that the Moomba 194 vertical shale gas well, adjacent to Moomba 191, flowed gas at an average rate of 3 mmscf/d. The well appraised the gas potential in various unconventional and shale plays, five standard fracture stimulation stages were run to test the Patchawarra deep coal, Patchawarra tight sand, upper Patchawarra hybrid shale, as well as the Murteree shale and Epsilon hybrid shale zones. Moomba 195 horizontal well is expected to test the Murteree Shale. Beach Energy continued to explore Nappamerri Trough shale gas and basin centred gas plays in PEL 218; a total of ten vertical and two horizontal exploration wells have been drilled, eight of these have been fracture stimulated and four flow tested. The first horizontal well to test Cooper Basin shale gas deliverability, Holdfast 2, spudded in December 2012 and on 22 January 2013, the vertical section was completed and the well was deviated towards the horizontal section through the Murteree Shale target. Senex drilled 6 exploration, 4 appraisal and 4 development wells in Cooper Basin Permits. Senex also acquired 2140 km2 3D from the Dundinna, Cordillo and Lignum seismic surveys. Burruna 2 oil discovery was their outstanding success in 2013 with flows in excess of 3600 barrels of oil per day (BOPD). Production rates are expected to be restricted to 800 BOPD. Successful fracture stimulation of Senex unconventional gas wells in 2013 include favourable results with Hornet 1 flowing at 2.2 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) and Kingston Rule 1 flowing at 1.2 mmscfd. Senex also fracture stimulated Paning 2 deep coal exploration well. The Toolachee coal successfully demonstrated the ability to flow gas at 90 000 standard cubic feet per day on a four day production test. PEL 96 in the southern Cooper Basin was granted to Strike Energy in May 2009 and exploration for moderate to deep Permian coals commenced in 2010 with the drilling of Forge 1. In November 2013 Le Chiffre 1 was drilled and encountered 105 m of Permian coal of which 86 m was cored and recovered. The well is currently cased for future fracture stimulation. Mid December 2013, Klebb 1 was spudded and plans for extensive wireline logging to be acquired. Strike plan for the well to be cased and suspended for future production testing. Commentary: Over 700 fracture stimulations have been undertaken in the Cooper Basin since production commenced in 1969. Some of these stimulations were in tight sandstones in the REM and Patchawarra Formation sequence that contain the shale gas and coal seam gas resources. Page 26 of 33 Better than expected well performance suggests that these wells have been producing from the unconventional reservoirs adjacent to the tight sands. The potential from these reservoirs is very large. Morton (1998) has estimated that the Cooper Basin source rocks have the potential to have generated between 4 027 and 8 055 Tcf of gas although only a small portion of that could reasonably be regarded as a resource. With regard to the timing of production, it is unlikely that substantial volumes of gas from this resource will be available to the East coast gas market in the short term. References: Beach Energy, FY14 Full Year Results Roadshow in September 2014 http://www.beachenergy.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/358179282719/FY14FullYearResultsRoadshowSeptember2014 Morton, J.G.G., 1998. Undiscovered petroleum resources. In: Gravestock, D.I., Hibburt, J.E. and Drexel, J.F. (eds) The Petroleum Geology of South Australia, Volume 4: Cooper Basin. South Australian Department of Primary Industries and Resources. Report Book 203-09 Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in South Australia http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/petroleum/prospectivity/basin_and_province_information/unconventional_gas /unconventional_gas_interest_group/roadmap_for_unconventional_gas_projects_in_sa Santos Annual Report 2012 http://www.santos.com/Archive/NewsDetail.aspx?p=121&id=1367 Santos Cooper Basin Unconventional Gas Opportunities and Commercialisation http://www.santos.com/library/121112_EABU_Cooper_Basin_Unconventional_Gas_Opportunities_and_ Commercialisation.pdf http://www.santos.com/library/121112_EABU_Cooper_Basin_Unconventional_Gas_Opportunities_and_ Commercialisation.pdf Page 27 of 33 Western Australia Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Tight gas Northern Perth Basin Yarragadee Formation Kockatea Shale Dongara/Wagina Sandstone Carynginia Formation Irwin River Coal Measures High Cliff Sandstone Southern Perth Basin Sue Coal Measures Canning Basin Laurel Formation Goldwyer Formation Bonaparte Basin Milligans Formation “Bonaparte Formation” *Unconventional oil and gas potential Shale gas CSG * Status Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Under assessment Inactive * Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Table 7.1: Western Australian unconventional resource potential PRODUCTION COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 3 275 PJ* CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 4 599 PJ* CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 5 898 PJ* UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 427 000 PJ** PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Source:* Norwest Energy, Transerv,,AWE ** Norwest Energy, EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment, AWT data in ACOLA Report 6 Securing Australia’s Future – Engineering energy Table 7.2: Western Australian unconventional resources Production/Forecasts: None Page 28 of 33 Unconventional resource drilling activity: Moderate. Since 2005 towards end 2013, 15 exploration wells have been drilled to search for shale and tight gas resources in Western Australia. Seven of these involved hydraulic fracturing to test the capacity of the reservoir to generate commercial gas flows. Commentary: WA is considered to hold significant shale and tight gas resources in the Kimberley, East Pilbara and Midwest regions. DMPWA has shown that the state potentially contains an estimated 280 trillion cubic feet in place resources of shale and tight gas. Of this, approximately 235 trillion cubic feet are in the Canning Basin (Kimberley and East Pilbara regions) and 45 trillion cubic feet are in the northern Perth basin (Midwest region). The Canning Basin is recognised as having great potential, if only for the vast size of the basin. Prospective formations have great areal extent although the extent of unconventional resources within them is currently unknown. Resource estimates assessing the whole of a formation across the basin should, therefore, be suitably discounted for this uncertainty. Due to the remoteness of the basin, transport and infrastructure will also be a significant issue in any unconventional resource development. The Northern Perth Basin, however, is however better placed near infrastructure and pipelines and is more likely to see unconventional gas reach market first. If exploration in Western Australia proves successful, significant commercial production is anticipated to be five to 10 years away. References: Arrowsmith http://www.norwestenergy.com.au/assets/files/ASX%20Announcements/2013/2013%2008%2002%20EP 413%20DM%20Contingent%20Resource%20Estimate.pdf AWE 2014FY Results http://www.awexplore.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/3270 DMP, 2014 Natural Gas from Shale and Tight Rocks http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/documents/Natural_Gas_from_Shale_and_Tight_Rocks__An_overview_of_Western_Australia_regulatory_framework.pdf EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/ Warro http://www.transerv.com.au/images/stories/2012-11-05_Warro_Final_Commitment.pdf Western Australian Atlas of Petroleum Fields, Vol. 1, Onshore Perth Basin, Owad-Jones, D. and Ellis, G., 2000 Western Australia Atlas of Petroleum Fields, Volume 2, Part 1, Onshore Canning Basin, Jonasson, K.E., 2001 Western Australia Atlas of Petroleum Fields, Volume 2, Part 2, Onshore Carnarvon Basin, Ellis, G.K. and Jonasson, K.E., 2001 Whicher Range Development Concept http://www.whicherenergy.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60:developmentconcept&catid=37:ep408&Itemid=69 Page 29 of 33 Northern Territory Unconventional resource potential: Basin/Formation Onshore Bonaparte Basin Milligans Formation “Bonaparte Formation” Georgina Basin Arthur Creek Formation Thorntonia Limestone Chabalowe Formation McArthur Basin/Beetaloo Sub-basin Kyalla Formation Velkerri Formation Barney Creek Formation Coxco Dolostone Bessie Creek Sandstone Moroak Sandstone Mount Isa Superbasin Lawn Hill Shale Riversleigh Siltstone Amadeus Basin Pacoota Sandstone Horn Valley Siltstone Stairway Sandstone Eromanga Basin Toolebuc Formation Oodnadatta Formation Tight gas Shale gas Inactive Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Inactive Pedirka Basin Peera Peera Formation Purni Formation Ngalia Basin Mount Eclipse Sandstone Wiso Basin Montejinni Limestone CSG Status Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Preliminary exploration Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Inactive Table 8.1: Northern Territory unconventional resource potential Page 30 of 33 PRODUCTION COMMERCIAL UNDISCOVERED PIIP SUB-COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED PIIP TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY-IN-PLACE (PIIP) Reserves/Resources: RESERVES 1P RESERVES 2P RESERVES 3P CONTINGENT RESOURCES 1C: 3.2 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 2C: 19.6 PJ CONTINGENT RESOURCES 3C: 61.1 PJ UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Low Estimate PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Best Estimate: 257 276 PJ PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES High Estimate UNRECOVERABLE Source: Munson (2014) Table 8.2: Northern Territory unconventional resources Production/Forecasts: None Unconventional resource drilling activity: The number of wells drilled for unconventional resource exploration since 2011 are shown in Table 8.3 and Figure 8.1. Year No. of Wells Drilled 2 2011 5 2012 10 2013 Table 8.3: Number of unconventional wells drilled since 2011 Number of Unconventional Gas Wells Drilled per Year 12 10 Wells drilled 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 0 2011 2012 2013 Figure 8.1: Number of Unconventional Gas Wells Drilled per Year Page 31 of 33 Commentary: The rapid uptake of acreage in the Northern Territory is an indication of the interest in the prospectivity of the basins in this region. There have been widespread indications of petroleum during petroleum and stratigraphic drilling, and mineral exploration over many years. Some operating companies are currently following up these indications, notably PetroFrontier previously and now Statoil in the Georgina Basin, and Armour Energy in the Glyde Sub‐basin of the McArthur Basin. Santos, Origin Energy and Sasol, and Pangaea Resources are actively investigating shale plays in the Beetaloo Sub-basin. In the Amadeus Basin, tight gas resources were identified during exploration drilling in the 1960s and 1980s, most notably in the Ooraminna and Dingo tight gas discoveries and follow up work by Central Petroleum has confirmed their potential. A recent agreement will see production from the Dingo accumulation by 2015. Beach Energy has commenced drilling wells for unconventional targets within the Onshore Bonaparte Basin. Basins in the Northern Territory, such as the McArthur Basin (including the Beetaloo Sub-basin) host some of the oldest potentially recoverable unconventional gas resources in the world. Recent seismic data has demonstrated the undercover continuity of the McArthur Basin over more than 20 per cent of the Northern Territory. At this stage there is no production from the unconventional gas resources in the Northern Territory. Unconventional gas exploration is still at its early stage. References: Armour Energy http://www.armourenergy.com.au/investors/investment-research 7-August-2013 Energy NT 2013 http://www.nt.gov.au/d/core/Content/File/commodities/2013_EnergyNT.pdf Independent Expert’s Report for Armour Energy Limited http://www.empireenergy.com/pdf/McArthur%20Basin%20Armour%20Co%20Ltd%20In d.%20Geo's%20Report.pdf Magellan signs long-term gas supply deal for Dingo field http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/09/magellan-signs-long-term-gas-supply-deal-fordingo-field.html Munson TJ, 2014. Petroleum geology and potential of the onshore Northern Territory, 2014. Northern Territory Geological Survey, Report 22. Page 32 of 33 Offshore areas Unconventional resource potential: None Reserves/Resources: None Production/Forecasts: None Unconventional resource drilling activity: None Commentary: While unconventional resources undoubtedly exist in offshore jurisdictions, the current cost of recovery is likely to be prohibitive, even where significant liquids recovery is possible. It is unlikely that changes in price or technology will change this situation in the foreseeable future. Page 33 of 33