Probability Webquest

Read about probability at the following website:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/ks2bitesize/maths/data/probability/read1.shtml

Then complete the quiz and print out your work when you receive 100%.

Read about probability at this website and answer the questions at the end:
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

Play probability pond at this link and complete the three activities:
http://www.pearsonschool.com/live/images/custom/envisionmath_ca/games/pon
d.html
o Describing Chances: Only do more/less/evenly likely
o Finding Probability: Only do Four kinds of firefly
o Showing probability

Complete the Flipping Coin interactive activity at this website and complete the
corresponding worksheet: http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/

Complete ball picking activity and corresponding worksheet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/ks2bitesize/maths/flash/probability.swf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/teachers/ks2_activities/maths/probability.shtml

Complete the Monty Hall activity and worksheet at:
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

Play all of the games at the Probability Fair at this website and answer the
questions: http://www.mrnussbaum.com/probfair/index.html
Coin Toss Exploration
Questions
1. Experiment with the Coin Toss activity. Input the number of tosses, run the application
and record the ratio of heads to total number of tosses on this chart. Run the application
at least three separate times (the more the better though) for each specified amount of
tosses.
10 tosses
Fraction
Decimal
500 tosses
Fraction
Decimal
1000 tosses
Fraction
Decimal
Trial 1
Trial 2
Trial 3
Average
X
X
X
This chart represents the experimental probability of getting a head when flipping a coin.
2. What is the theoretical probability of the coin landing on heads? What is the theoretical
probability of the coin landing on tails? Write this probability as a fraction, a decimal,
and in a ratio form and explain your answer.
3. Which number of tosses (5, 500, or 1000) has the ratio that is the most similar to the
theoretical probability ratio? Which number of tosses has the ratio that is the most
different from the theoretical probability ratio? Why do you think this is?
Ball Picking Activity
1. What is the theoretical probability of picking each color?
Yellow:
Red:
Blue:
2. How many of each color do you expect to pull after 12 drawings?
Yellow:
Red:
Blue:
3. Record how many times each color is picked during your experiment:
Yellow:
Red:
Blue:
4. What is the experimental probability of picking each color?
Yellow:
Red:
5. Are the numbers what you expected? Explain.
Blue:
Monty Hall, Three Doors
Exploration Questions
The game simulates a well-known game show situation that used to happen on the
Monty Hall game show. A player is given the choice of three doors. Behind one door
is the Grand Prize (a car and a cruise); behind the other two doors, booby prizes
(pigs). The player picks a door, and the host peeks behind the doors and opens one
of the rest of the doors. There is a booby prize behind the open door. The host offers
the player either to stay with the door that was chosen at the beginning, or to switch
to the remaining closed door.
Try to predict what is better: to switch doors or to stay with the original choice.
What are the chances of winning in either case? Play the game at least 10 times and
see if the experiment confirms your prediction.
Prediction:
Monty Hall Tally Table
Action Taken
# of games played # of games won
Experimental Probability
of winning
Games Stayed
.
.
.
Games Switched .
.
.
Use the following formula for experimental probability:
Experimental probability =
(Number of games won) / (Total number of games played)
Was your prediction accurate?
Probability Fair
Number Board Game:
1.What is the probability in ratio form that your number will be chosen after a
spin?
2.What is the probability of it landing on a black square?
a. Red square?
b. Green square?
c. On a white square?
d. On a number greater than 20?
Conduct 10 trials and record each outcome.
e.g. Sample Space:
{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,………36}
Trials
Guess
Probability in Words
Probability ratio
Outcome
1
29
Probable
1/36
36
Shell Game:
3.What are the chances of you picking a shell worth 1 point?
4.What is the probability of you picking a shell worth 10 points?
Conduct this experiment 10 times and record each outcome.
Tally how many times you follow the marble accurately.
e.g.
Losses
Probability Ratio:
IIII IIII III
11/17
Wins
Probability Ratio:
IIII II
6/17
Losses
Probability Ratio:
Wins
Probability Ratio:
Plinko:
5.Was the outcome of this game what you expected?
6. Do you consider this game to have a high probability of winning or low
probability of winning?
Duck Pluck:
7. What is the probability that you choose the winning duck?
8. Do you think this game is fair?
9. Out of the 4 games which one did you like best? Why?
10. Which one did you like the least? Why?