Divestment Review Group: Evidence to Inform the Fossil Fuel Review
Dependency of contemporary society on fossil fuels
Contemporary society is dependent on fossil fuels in two ways: (a) through its use as an
energy source; and (b) through its use as a feedstock for many critical products, such as
agricultural fertilisers, iron and steel and plastics.
(A) Use of fossil fuels for energy use
Access to cheap, readily available energy underpins modern society. In 2012, over 80% of
global primary energy needs came from burning fossil fuels. Despite the substantial growth
in other sources of energy (nuclear, renewables, biofuels) over the past 40 years, the
proportion of global energy supply from fossil fuels has not changed markedly. In 1971,
fossil fuels supplied ~87% of total energy supply; by 2012, they still comprised ~82% despite
a near doubling of energy supplied to 13,371 million tonnes oil equivalent.
Source: IEA, 2014: Key World Energy Statistics
(B) Use of fossil fuels for non-energy products
Non-energy use of fossil fuels can be broadly categorised into uses for the chemical
industry; the metal industry; and other uses such as solvents (including paints), lubricants,
asphalt/bitumen (for road and roofing) and waxes (including detergents, paper coating,
food production).
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Commodity chemicals that are primarily made from fossil fuels include ethylene, propylene,
benzene, toluene, xylenes and methanol. These are the starting materials for manufacturing
many polymers made by the chemicals industry, which includes all categories of plastics
(including the largest product by volume, polyethylene) and other, more complex organic
chemicals used by society. Other derivatives include synthetic rubber, dyes and pigments,
resins, carbon black and explosives.
Natural gas is the primary constituent of ammonia, which is the most important nitrogenous
material produced. It is used directly as a fertiliser, to which conservative estimates of
global agricultural yield increases of 30-50%1 have been attributed, as well as for paper
pulping; nitric acid and nitrates manufacture; explosives; refrigerants; and as a feedstock for
organic compounds such as urea.
The production of iron and steel depends on fossil fuels both for its energy needs and as a
component (metallurgical coke) within the process of converting iron ore to iron. Coke is
also used in other metallurgical processes such as the manufacture of cast iron, ferroalloys,
lead, zinc and in kilns to make lime and magnesium2.
Timescales over which dependence on fossil fuels can be reduced
The primary focus of government policies for reducing society’s dependence of fossil fuels
has been on reducing their combustion for energy use, since fossil fuel combustion is the
single largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy Makers
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report shows that emissions pathways that are “more likely than
not” to limit global temperature change to less than 2°C require global emissions to fall by
between 25 and 55% by 2050 compared with 2010 levels. And: “In most scenarios, the share
of low-carbon electricity supply (renewable, nuclear and fossil fuel with CCS) increases from
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See for example: https://www.agronomy.org/publications/aj/abstracts/97/1/0001
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For explanation of other uses of fossil fuels, see IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gases, 2006:
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html
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its current share of 30% to more than 80% by 2050, with fossil fuel generation without CCS
phased out almost entirely by 2100.”
Delaying mitigation to 2030 substantially increases the challenges of limiting warming over
the 21st Century to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Specifically, the IPCC Summary
for Policy Makers3 reports that: “Mitigation policy could devalue fossil fuel assets and
reduce revenues for fossil fuel exporters, but differences between regions and fuels exist
[high confidence]. Most mitigation scenarios are associated with reduced revenues from
coal and oil trade for major exporters [high confidence]. The availability of CCS [Carbon
Capture and Storage technology] would reduce the adverse effects of mitigation on the
value of fossil fuel assets [medium confidence].” In other words, we can assume that use of
fossil fuels for energy generation will be phased out by 2100, unless effective carbon
capture technologies are implemented.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has explored feasible policy and technology choices
to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The implications for use of certain types of fossil fuel
are profound: the difference between their “sustainable energy system” [equating to a 2°C
warming] and the “current trajectory” [equating to a 6°C warming] is that in the current
trajectory, oil remains the most important primary energy carrier, while in the sustainable
energy system, oil demand is reduced by 30% by 20504. In this sustainable energy scenario,
fossil fuel use decreases, but its share of primary energy supply remains above 40%,
reflecting its particularly important role in industry, transport and electricity generation.
The UK and Scotland have both legislated – in their respective Climate Change Acts5 - to
deliver at least an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Various policy and
technical scenarios exist to deliver these emission targets, but all require radical
restructuring of our production and supply of energy and our use of land. In particular, a low
carbon electricity supply by 2030 underpins many of these scenarios (meaning electricity
generation only comes from nuclear, renewables or fossil fuel generation with operational
carbon capture technologies). By 2050, unabated fossil fuels use for energy generation can
only be allowed in niche activities (e.g. heavy goods vehicles) if the emissions targets are to
be met.
Andy Kerr
November 2014
IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Summary for Policy Makers: http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPM.pdf
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4
Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, IEA:
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives_ES.pdf
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http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/climatechangeact
https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reducing-the-uk-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-80-by-2050
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