Terms of Reference for Evaluation of National Poultry
Development Program
1. Background
Poultry development was initiated in the late 1970s, however, the program could not
bring in any major impact until recently. Since 2005 the Department of Livestock
(DoL) took major steps under the “Strategy of Mass Egg and Chicken Production”.
After nearly 3 decades from its first development plan Bhutan achieved 100% egg
and 56 % chicken import substitution in 2012 (DoL, 2012). The domestic egg
production and chicken production in 2012 reached 57Mand 909 MT respectively.
The contribution of the poultry sector to the GDP reached Nu. 224 Million in 2010
(DoL, 2010).
Currently poultry sector is one of the few commodity producer cooperatives where
farmers’ federation has been formed in Bhutan (DAMC, n.d). This increase in poultry
and egg production has opened up opportunities for small and micro poultry
enterprises. It is apparent as a result the income and therefore living standard of
poultry producing farmers have improved, although no assessments have occurred.
However, the poultry industry is not without challenges. Some of the major
challenges/ constraints encountered in the Poultry Sector are:
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

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High dependency on import for “parent stock” for poultry inputs
In-efficient/poorly organized marketing system leading to high egg and
chicken price
Highly erratic commercial feed supply and volatile feed prices
Slow private sector growth in input production (especially hatching eggs) and
heavy dependency on government farms.
High production cost of eggs and chicken in Bhutan (due to feed, labor costs,
less farm mechanization etc)
Recently, there has been a steady rise in egg prices indicating either decrease in
production or manipulation in the market. This has created shortage in egg supply in
the market as well as made egg expensive for families with modest level of income.
This has direct impact on food security and for families in providing balanced diet to
their household members especially children.
Therefore, recognizing the eminent threat the rising prices would cause for families
in providing adequate nutrition for the children and old, it is important that the
program be evaluated and issue redressed at the earliest.
2. Purpose
Compared to the past, Poultry farming is emerging as a very lucrative business for
many farmers all over the country. However, there are several challenges too.
Therefore, it would be useful to know the achievements, identify factors contributing
to the success as well as factors that caused recent hiccup. Such an evaluation of
the program would help to see if the program (as a development model) can be
adapted for other commodities like dairy, pork, chevon and fish products. The
findings on the impact in the context of investment, improving livelihoods etc. would
be very useful.
Such an evaluation of process, achievements and some of the constraints coupled
with farmers/entrepreneurs views will provide valuable insight to the policy makers in
framing evidence based policy and strategies in future. This evaluation is expected
to lead to policy development that guidesintervention for sustainable livestock
development.
3. Objective
The main objectivesof this evaluation are to assess the achievement of this program
at the outcome level in terms of incremental production over the years, import
substitution, poverty alleviation and improving living standard, and above all
contribution to food security. In addition, this study will also identify the issues and
challenges faced recently in the poultry industry that has led to surge in egg prices
and accordingly recommend mitigation measures to minimize such sudden egg
availability and prices in future.
4. Evaluation Questions
Based on the above mentioned purpose and objective of the evaluation, the study
will answer the following evaluation questions:
1. What are the achievement levels (outcomes and outputs) of the national
poultry development program against the set targets?
2. What type of strategy/ development model did DoL implement, to lead to
the current state of the poultry sector development in Bhutan?
3. How effective and efficient was the National Poultry Development Program
in improving national food security, import substitution and social wellbeing
of the people of Bhutan?
4. How sustainable are the strategies and interventions DoLimplemented
under the NPDP?
5. What (if any) are the barriers and opportunities faced at all levels of
hierarchy (HQ, Dzongkhags, Central Agencies, Cooperatives and
individual farmers) in the implementation of the programme?
6. What future steps both at central and local level will be needed to keep the
momentum and make poultry products available and affordable?
a. What should DoL do in order to make NPDC contribute towards the
larger objective of food self-sufficiency and national food security?
5. Scope of Evaluation
The outcome evaluation shall cover the overall state of National Poultry
Development Program (since 2005 through to 2014) and provide insights for
evidence based policy development in future.
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
Figure 1 Theory of Change aka RBM model
6. Methodology
The evaluation must provide evidence‐based information that is credible, reliable and
useful. The evaluation methodology shall involve mixed method of quantitative and
qualitative methods. Since this programme has a direct bearing on the lives and
livelihoods of the whole population, particularly in achieving food security and raising
living standard of the poultry farmers, a participatory approach along with
inductive/deductive approach would be preferred. Quantitative data shall be
collected through field surveys and secondary data, while the qualitative data shall
be collected through interviews of key informants and focus group discussions.
However, the actual method shall be determined by the evaluation design matrix to
be prepared by the evaluation team.
Sources of information:
1. Poultry development 10th plan , Tshewang Tashi-DoL
2. 11th FYP DoL,T Tashi DoL
3. Achievements by national poultry development centre, Sarpang by T Tashi
4. Poultry development report for Tsirang- By T Tashi
5. Poultry Stimulus document-By T Tashi
6. Poultry development strategy- By T Tashi
7. Turkey farming in Bhutan-T Tashi
8. Tsirang & Sarpang Cooperative meeting resolution- T Tashi
9. Chicken import substitution and sustainable production plan
10. Poultry Sector in Bhutan
11. Cost of egg production
12. Feed import analysis
7. Management team
The Policy and Planning Division, MoAF in collaboration with Research and
Evaluation Division, GNH Commission and Department of Livestock, MoAF shall
form the management team. The management team shall coordinate the overall
evaluation activities. The evaluation team shall report any matter concerning
evaluation activities to the management team.
8. Reference Group
A reference group shall be formed to provide technical advice to the evaluation team
to ensure the quality and standard of the evaluation process. The reference group
shall be comprised of officials from PPD/MoAF, RED/GNHC, DoL/MoAF, Program
Director, National Poultry Development Program, and DLOs of Tsirang and Sarpang
Dzongkhags.
9. Evaluation Team
A national consultant shall be hired to form the evaluation team.The consultant shall
have prior experience in evaluating similar projects.
The consultant must present the following qualifications:

Experience in livestock development and program evaluation, with
demonstrated monitoring and evaluation skills. In particular, the consultant
should be familiar overall agricultural development, food security situation,
livestock development with particular focus on poultry development.

Previous experience with results‐based monitoring and evaluation
methodologies;

Highly
knowledgeable
of
participatory
monitoring
and
evaluation
processes, and experience in program evaluations;

Ability and experience to lead multi-disciplinary teams, and deliver quality
reports within the given time.

Writing and communication will be in English, and must be excellent in
English and communication skills.
10. Evaluation Timeframe
The total duration of the evaluation will be according to the following plan:
Activity
Timing
Completion Date
Inception report (Preparation 10 days
and endorsement by PPD &
DoL)
Field survey, interviews, desk 40 days
reviews.
April 2, 2015
De-briefing of the initial findings 1 day
of the evaluation
May 13, 2015
Submission of the draft report
8 days
May 21, 2015
Final Report
1 day
May 25, 2015
May 12, 2015
11. Deliverables
Deliverable
Content
Inception
Report
Evaluation design matrix Within 10 days of
and work plan.
the award of the
contract.
Data collection instruments
(eg. questionnaires).
De-briefing
Initial
findings
Timing
of
Responsibilities
Evaluator submits to
PPD/MoAF.
Field mission will
commence only upon
endorsement of the
inception report by
PPD, MoAF.
the Within 3 days of Management
team
evaluation.
the
end
of
evaluation
mission
Draft Final Full report with annexes
Within 8 days of
Report
the presentation
The evaluation report must of initial findings
include a chapter providing
a set of conclusions,
recommendations
and
lessons.
Final Report Upon
incorporating Within 1 week of
feedback and comments receiving
from
the
management comments
on
team, relevant stakeholders draft final report
and reference group.
and stakeholders.
Sent
to
PPD/MoAFand
management team.
Sent to PPD/MoAF
12. Payment Modalities and Specifications
%
40 %
20%
40%
Milestone
Upon submission of Inception Report and endorsement by PPD/MoAF
Following submission and approval of the 1st draft evaluation report
Following submission and approval of the final evaluation report by
PPD/Management Team.
13. Application and Selection process
For the application process till the selection process, the Procurement Rules and
Regulations, 2009 will be used.