Första nationella konferensen i transportforskning, 18-19 oktober 2012, Stockholm
Evaluating urban form and location effects on cycling based on Danish micro-data.
Thomas Sick Nielsen1; Anton Stahl Olafsson; Trine Agervig Carstensen; Hans Skov-Petersen
1
Technical University of Denmark; Department of Transport; Bygningstorvet 116 B; DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby
Email: thnie@transport.dtu.dk ; Tel: +45256547
Extended abstract
The paper analyses the environmental correlates of cycling based on Danish transportation and urban form
micro-data. Established walkability factors such as density, connectivity and diversity are related to cycling,
but access to retail concentrations/centers, public transportation level-of-service, as well a competition
between walking and cycling depending on environmental features can be added Attractive conditions for
using public transportation or walking relate to less cycling. Highly relevant in the context of cycling
promotion the results points to some opposite effects of urban form on the probability of cycling and
distance cycled. A high probability of cycling generally imply short distances to cover and less cycling –
leading to non-uniform, non-monotonous relations between environmental indicators such as walkability
and aggregate cycling.
Promoting cycling can be seen as a potential means to reduce congestion and increase the sustainability of
transportation, but also as a means to increase physical activity and public health. Consequently the factors
conditioning cycling have received increasing attention in public policy as well as in research.
The urban environment is one of the factors conditioning transportation need and choices and this has
been the focus of numerous studies, often taking a congestion management or sustainability perspective
on personal transportation. Promoting physical activity in the form of cycling and walking also relate to the
urban environment, and the concept of ‘walkability’ has been added to research and practice to describe
the degree to which the urban environment support active modes of travel.
There is, however, still limited research on what is known about the interaction between land use,
destinations, infrastructure and the willingness to cycle (McNeil, 2011). Cycling as travel mode or activity
may be placed somewhere in between ‘street life’ which is highly sensitive to environmental qualities, and
a more utility oriented mode of travel moving between origins and destinations. Following Forsyth and
Krizek (2011) it can be argued that there is a distinctive view from the bicycle, a difference from the walking
mode together with which cycling is often classified and analyzed – warranting further research into the
factors preconditioning cycling. Additionally recommendations for research have pointed to a need for
elaboration of the associations between the built environment and different forms of physical activity
(Handy, 2005) – something which this article aim to contribute to by focusing on cycling.
The aim of the paper is to analyze the urban form and location factors that precondition and explain cycling
in Denmark. Important questions related to this, and of particular interest from a cycling promotion and
urban planning perspective, is the significance of urban form and location factors and which trade-offs
between cycling and other transport provisions that appear from the results.
The paper is based on a detailed micro-level representation of urban form and location, including
neighbourhood level as well as regional location aspects. A sample selection model of the probability of
cycling and distance cycled is presented. Model results include a testing of the robustness of urban form
correlates of cycling to model specifications including control variables with more or less assumed
endogenity towards cycling outcomes.
The model results points to a high probability of cycling being related to flat terrain, short distance to a
retail concentration, population density, network connectivity within a 1,5 km ‘personal’ neighbourhood.
Transit access and level-of-service measured as the availability of a train station within 1000 meter and the
number of daily bus and train departures within 500 meter from the dwelling both contribute to lower
probabilities of cycling indicating that public transportation to some degree is a competing alternative.
Retail jobs per resident within a very convenient 500 meter walking range indicating main street and
central area locations, as well as network connectivity within the 500 meter range also contribute to lower
probabilities of cycling – indicating that walking is also a competing alternative towards the bicycle.
A long cycling distance per day is related to short distance to a large retail concentration, low population
density, and low network connectivity within walking range. Additionally the sample selection model
results indicate that when the probability of cycling increase – the daily cycling distance decrease – most
likely because the convenience of cycling as travel mode rely on short distances.
The correlations between cycling and urban form and location factors are generally robust and sample
selection model specifications with and without control for mode access (bicycle; car ownership; and public
transport travel pass) in addition to other demographic and socio-economic variables produced only
marginal changes to the set of statistically significant variables or their parameter estimates. The only
exceptions were the urban form variable: number of retail jobs pr. resident within walking range which
turned insignificant when the respondents access to a bicycle is included in the set of control variables This
indicate that people living in very central locations more often do not possess a bicycle which again may be
a combined effect of the convenience associated with walking, higher risk of bicycle theft (or more parking
troubles), or of course transport/residence related preferences. Additionally the parameter estimate for
the effect of population density upon cycling distance changed significantly as a result of including mode
access variables in the analysis – suggesting the strongest effect of density when controlling for mode
access. Although direct inclusion of residential self selection issues in the analysis has not been possible
based on the available data, this result indicate that the inclusion of preferences will not necessarily lessen
the effect of urban form and location aspects on cycling.
From a cycling promotion for sustainable transportation or public health perspective – the results points to
important tradeoffs between factors related to the probability of cycling and the daily distanced cycled. The
effects of urban form and location aspects does not point in the same direction for both – leading to a
question of the desirable cycling outcome if cycling is to be promoted through spatial planning and policies.