Climate Change: Affecting an African Way of Life
Nicholas Geyer
GEOG 412
1. Introduction
In the summer of 2010, the FIFA World Cup was played in South Africa. Not only did
this mark the nineteenth play of the greatest soccer tournament in the world, but it also marked
the first time that the World Cup was ever held in an African country. South Africa used the
ample opportunity provided by FIFA to highlight the issues concerning both South Africa and
the entire African continent. Some of these messages were presented through commercials and
stories of war in Darfur, economic strife in the slums of Cape Town, and agricultural struggles
that are associated with an African lifestyle. From these alarming messages, it is evident that a
difficult balance of low economic development, poor health infrastructure, and increasing
population pressure fuel the African way of life. So where does something like climate change
fit in for Africa?
The African continent is already starting to feel the effects of global climate change.
Current and future changes in temperature, precipitation, and other major climate phenomena
provide the scenario for clear and possible dangers toward one of humanity’s most vulnerable
populations. By taking a look at what the global climate models (GCMs), trending conditions,
and population vulnerabilities are indicating about climate change in Africa, we can draw the
conclusion that Africa is a land in dire need of assistance as we enter into the age of “Global
Warming.”
2. Conflict (Figures and tables are at the end of the paper)
In Africa, there are more than 700 million inhabitants. (Marston, 2010) In figure 1, the
population density is shown to be the densest along both the coastline areas and the major
waterways of Africa, which includes both the Nile River and Lake Victoria. The major
population centers are typically filled with urban sprawl and industrialization, marked by
overcrowding, poor resource management, and feeble infrastructure. For these reasons, civil war
is a constant problem in many African countries. It has become a way of life, as many people
rebel against the oppression of their governments, or neighboring nations. Reasons for this can
include ethnic conflicts or geopolitical boundaries, but in fact many conflicts are started over
resource scarcity. By looking at conflicts caused by scarcity and examining the future climate,
we can see how political conflicts are predicted to worsen via climate change.
The first instance is in central Africa. Since 1997, the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC) has engaged in armed conflict, which has crippled the area and directly affected nearly
two-thirds of the population. Present estimates show nearly 200,000 women have been raped by
military personnel since 1997 (Ouellette, 2010). Although this conflict was started between
Rwanda and the DRC, many of the issues are prolonged and heightened as a result of resource
scarcity. In the DRC, the government controls nearly all resources in the area, especially water.
The climate observes mass amounts of rainfall, which often leads to flooding of the Congo River
and its tributaries. This mixes with contaminants and dirt leaving the population with low
supplies of clean water and serious health problems. Future climate predictions state that central
Africa will become increasingly wetter, as opposed to any other region. Consequently, the
increased rainfall should create less clean water, thereby heightening social tensions associated
with water (Ouellette, 2010). In effect, the scarcity of water will fuel even more conflict
throughout the region, prolonging and worsening the problem.
Another region rattled by conflict is eastern Africa. In this region, Lake Victoria and the
tributary rivers provide irrigation, fishing, and navigation to support the regional economy.
Simply put, whoever controls the water controls the regional economy, which often ends in many
confrontations between countries. Examples include the historical water conflicts between
Kenya and Uganda, where these countries fought for territory along Lake Victoria (Kieta, 2010).
Recent trends show, that eastern Africa is experiencing a drying climate as air patterns shift.
This increases drought and water scarcity in the region, and, thus, promotes political tensions
(Kieta, 2010). As for the future, our GCMs predict that eastern Africa will become drier over the
next century (Davidson, 2010). Clearly, this poses a serious threat to the political stability of the
region. The ability to make major waterways navigable and economically efficient will become
necessary. As can be seen, the climate will dry in eastern Africa, so it is to be expected that
conflicts should rise over water scarcity (Kieta, 2010).
3. Economy and Food
Aside from geopolitical and scarcity based conflicts, Africa is a land that is starved from
its exportation based economy. The infrastructure constructed during colonial and post-colonial
habitation only allows most countries to mine and export raw minerals. Most of the wealth
remains with foreign investors, while very little wealth remains with the African population. This
means many Africans rely heavily on subsistence farming and agriculture to provide food and
money for their families (Marston, 2010). As a result, Africa has high poverty and hunger rates.
These are poised to worsen as the climate changes over the next century. If we take a look at
three different regions of Africa, we can see how economic and climate changes will go hand in
hand.
3a. Western Africa
In western Africa, farming is highly dependent on the yearly rainfall. Recently, a rise in
Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along western Africa has caused a decrease in
precipitation in the region. This results in an observed drying of the Sahel region and an
expanding Saharan desert, through a process known as desertification. Observations show that
the arid climate and winds are causing an increase in dust from the desert. The increasing dust is
linked to additional decreases in annual rainfall totals across the entire region (Speers, 2010).
Using the IPCC directed A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, global climate models project regional
precipitation will decrease on the order of 20 to 50 percent by the mid to late century (Hoy,
2010). The precipitation decrease should cause the Sahara to continue its creep past the Sahel
region into the heavily populated coastal region. Desertification will deplete a lot of the
farmable terrain, which will hinder the agricultural output of the region (Hoy, 2010 &
Washington, 2010). An example crop output expectation is seen is seen in figure 2. As seen,
nearly all of western Africa’s crop output, with the exception of the cowpea is expected to drop
at least 5% by 2030. In addition, tables 1 and 2 give a sense of the coupling trends between
agricultural economies and poverty rates in western Africa. Most notably, the trend shows that
any western African country that has an agricultural economy also displays a high poverty index
(Washington, 2010). Thus, as the climate changes over western Africa, the decline in
agricultural output will increase the poverty indices and rates of the region (Washington, 2010).
3b. Eastern and Northeastern Africa
Like western Africa, eastern Africa also relies heavily on agriculture. Nearly all of the
region’s population requires rainfall to irrigate their lands, thus making the yearly rains that
much more important. Recently, however, the rains of eastern Africa have become less intense
and not as frequent. As a result, in present-day eastern Africa, nearly 23 million people in seven
east African countries are being fed by aid agencies due to decimated crops (Kieta, 2010). From
1994 till 2003, the average agricultural capacity of the region decreased about 3 kg per person
per year, which marks the effect of a long term drought experienced in the area due to low
moisture (Byers, 2010). Even in northeastern Africa, low soil moisture and low precipitation
have allowed the Sahara Desert to increase in size and diminish irrigable land (Ide, 2010). These
problems are caused by rising regional temperatures and shifting air flow patterns. During the
last 25 years, Indian Ocean SSTs along the eastern African region experienced an increase of .6
o
C. During that same time frame, the onshore surface air temperatures increased only .5 oC.
The uneven warming is causing eastern Africa’s air patterns to shift. Normally, a pattern of
warm moist air from the Indian Ocean is transported onshore. This is the fuel responsible for
most of the regional precipitation. This pattern is interrupted and reversed when offshore
temperatures are higher than onshore temperatures. This causes the moist air to remain over the
Indian Ocean, while dry air funnels into the region, creating droughts (Kieta, 2010). A visible
example of the current pattern is seen in figure 3. Eastern Africa’s moisture transport observed a
precipitation decrease of 100 mm on land and an increase of 100 mm on the ocean (Byers, 2010).
Our current GCMs observe that the added energy of a warming Indian Ocean could possibly
reduce the flow of moisture onshore, which can bring dry air down over the African continent,
therefore reducing rainfall further (Davidson, 2010). Looking toward the future, the models
predict eastern African rainfall changes through 2050 to be at a high degree of uncertainty. This
makes climate prediction very difficult to foresee for the local economy, but the consensus
between models is that 60 to 90 percent of all crop seasons until 2060 are going to be considered
drought seasons (Kieta, 2010 & Davidson, 2010).
3c. Southern Africa
In southern Africa, a booming population, poor agricultural technologies and overhunting
have decimated the landscape. These, in addition to an increasingly more arid landscape, are
leading to desertification and the extension of the Kalahari Desert (Mayfield, 2010). Figure 4
displays the current desertification vulnerability in southern Africa. The landscape is shown to be
extremely arid along the western coast, indicating higher vulnerability, and wetter along the
eastern coast indicating lower vulnerability (Mayfield, 2010). As in eastern and western Africa,
this is significant because the southern African population relies heavily on agriculture and wood
harvesting to live. The threat of desertification is enhanced by the recent trend in more droughts
throughout the region. In figure 5, the drought frequency is seen to be moderate to high in
southern Africa. Recent trends have also noted the region’s climate becoming more dry and arid
(Geyer, 2010 & Dunlap, 2010). Southern Africa’s temperature trend observed an increase of .5
o
C over the last century. The minimum temperatures at night also increased over the last 100
years making the diurnal temperature variations lower (Dunlap, 2010). This decrease in diurnal
variation indicates that the climate will continue to become more arid, thus providing the
opportunity for a greater chance of additional desertification. Furthermore, our current GCMs
are projecting an increase in the warmth and aridity of the landscape. In the future, temperatures
are projected to increase by an average of 3.4 oC throughout the 21st century. The highest
temperature increase is predicted to be during winter (Sustich, 2010). This would induce lower
seasonal variability and help raise the risk for a warmer year-round climate.
In addition, the precipitation in this region is also expected to decline. As seen in table 3,
the seasonal variability for southern Africa is predicted to drop significantly in the winter
(Sustich, 2010). This is problematic because the rainy season occurs during the winter when the
intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moves south. In effect, a warmer winter will inhibit the
ITCZ from reaching as far south as it normally should, providing the opportunity for the climate
to become even more arid and dry. (Sustich, 2010) This will diminish the irrigable land and
cause a significant strain on the food supply for southern Africa.
4. Diseases
Disease is the third major vulnerability for the people of Africa. Health security and
infrastructure are at the core of the issues surrounding HIV/AIDS and water-borne illnesses. The
issues concerning disease have gotten so problematic that many people have no idea that they
have contracted the illnesses until there is nothing else doctors can do. Poor education and a lack
of contraceptives and vaccines hinder the opportunities to cure the population of easily curable
and preventable diseases. By taking a look at both the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the water-borne
illness vulnerabilities in both central and southern Africa, we can see that climate change will
affect the spread of these illnesses.
4a. HIV/AIDS
HIV/AIDS is perhaps the worst biological epidemic on the African continent. As seen in
figure 6, the whole continent shares one commonality: high positive prevalence of the virus.
Another important detail is that the highest prevalence also occurs along the coastlines, where
the population is the greatest. Two regions display the highest vulnerability for this virus from
climate change: southern and central Africa. First, HIV/AIDS is most prevalent in southern
Africa, where nearly 20 to 30% of the entire population is HIV positive (Mayfield, 2010). As
previously stated, the climate of southern Africa is predicted to experience increasing
desertification. The effects of this climate change will force many people to move from the
farmlands toward the major cities of southern Africa. As a consequence, the population is
predicted to experience a higher opportunity to exposure to HIV/AIDS (Mayfield, 2010). In
addition, the ability to prevent and treat the virus is very poor in the area. The population is in
need of being educated about the disease as well as having the availability to use contraception.
Without the proper education and contraception, this predicted population boom sets the stage
for an increased risk of exposure to the disease. With a large part of the population infected, the
middle-aged population should be thinned, leaving many more youth and elderly to support the
economy and agriculture of the region (Mayfield, 2010).
In a similar set of circumstances, central Africa also has a high vulnerability for
HIV/AIDS. According to a 2003 report, the rate of HIV/AIDS infection in adults in central
Africa is around 4-5% of the total population. Estimates show that nearly 100,000 deaths have
been caused by HIV/AIDS in central Africa, while nearly 1.1 million people are carrying the
virus (Ouellette, 2010). Like southern Africa, the population suffers from a complete lack of
education about the disease and its prevention; however, the spread of the disease is primarily
contributed to the ongoing conflict and poor medical infrastructure. Civil conflicts throughout
the DRC are famous because of the combatants’ raping of women, which increases the spread of
HIV/AIDS (Ouellette, 2010). With the current expectations of increasing resource scarcity and
civil conflicts over the next century, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is expected to rise in central Africa.
4b. Water-Borne Illnesses
In America and the industrialized nations, the population sometimes takes for granted the
cleanliness of our water. In Africa, the inability to clean their water provides the foundations for
a plagues of serious illnesses that kill millions of people every year. Two of the main illnesses
are malaria and cholera. Malaria is primarily carried by mosquitos, humans, and other pests. It
is transmitted to someone through fluid exchange such as being bitten by a mosquito (Ouellette,
2010). In central Africa, the heavy rains induced by the passing of the ITCZ cause the Congo
and its tributaries to flood on a regular basis. This leaves behind many small pools of stagnant
water where many bacteria can grow in the warm climate as well as providing a place for
mosquitos to lay their eggs. In table 4, we see how the precipitation and temperature of the
region will trend over the next century. The climate of the region will not only grow warmer, but
also may grow increasingly wetter (Hardos, 2010). As a result, the likelihood of stagnant pools
throughout the region will increase. This provides the opportunity for an increase in the mosquito
population, and thus the opportunity for increased infection of the human population in the
future.
In southern Africa, cholera has recently been gripping the region in an epidemic. Cholera
is a bacterium transferred through drinking contaminated water. From 2008 to 2009, countries
like Mozambique, Angola, and Zimbabwe reported over 80,000 cases of cholera. The
population noted that the lack of sanitary food, transportation, and health care all contributed to
contracting the disease. (Cholera, 2010) In particular, southern Africa lacks the methods of
water filtration and treatment. The population is forced to drink water from wells and small
lakes that are infested with pollutants and bacteria like cholera. The predicted droughts
throughout the area will dry these small lakes and watering holes. (Sustich, 2010) This, in turn,
will force both humans and almost all animal life to focus in on the remaining water supply. As
a result, it is expected that the likelihood of water contamination is to rise. (Mayfield, 2010)
Consequently, cholera and other water-borne illnesses will continue to become an ever-growing
issue as southern Africa continues to dry over the next century.
5. Conclusion
In conclusion, Africa is an extremely vulnerable continent with what appears to be a grim
future. The predicted increases in temperatures across the continent coupled with a decrease in
precipitation across the northern and southern portions of Africa as well as increased
precipitation over central Africa will fuel droughts and the expansion of both the Kalahari and
Saharan deserts. This, in turn, will cause resource scarcity in each region. The conflicts started
by oppressive governments and civil unrest set a stage, where even the smallest decline in
resources will intensify the conflicts. The already prevalent problems of malnutrition, hunger,
and economic downturn of nearly every region of Africa will continue to increase as farmable
land decreases. This will also force people into cities where the opportunity to contract diseases
like HIV/AIDS becomes a real possibility. In addition, the future enhancement of droughts
coupled with poor infrastructure and water treatment will produce higher rates of water-borne
illnesses like cholera and malaria.
Clearly, as the world becomes more globalized, we must focus on the most important part
to our world: everyone. Africa plays an extremely crucial part in our economies and livelihoods,
even if people do not explicitly see this. A fall in the continent by means of climate change will
not only affect the African population, but the world as a whole. Climate change is going to
affect us all in some way. Do we want Africa to fall from grace?
6. Works Cited
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Cholera in southern Africa could be linked to Zimbabwe, says UN health agency. (n.d.).
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7. Figures and Tables
Figure 1. Population density map of Africa without national boundaries. In people per
square kilometer. (Colombia, 2010)
Table 1. This is a table of the structure of production in western African countries from 2003.
The values are given in percent. (Washington, 2010)
Table 2. This is a table of the poverty incidence of western African countries from 2003.
The values are given in percent. (Washington, 2010)
Figure 2. Probabilistic projections of production impacts in 2030 from climate change
expressed as a percentage of 1998 to 2002 average yields. (Washington, 2010)
Figure 3. Canonical correlations link increasing oceanic precipitation with moisture
transport disruptions. (Byers, 2010)
Figure 4. Desertification vulnerability to Southern Africa. White represents dry conditions.
(Mayfield, 2010)
Figure 5. Drought frequency in Africa. Black, gray and white represent high, moderate, and low
frequency, respectively. (Mayfield, 2010)
Table 3. The predicted precipitation response during each season in southern Africa. (Sustich,
2010)
Figure 6. A map of Africa depicting the climates suitable for malaria growth and stability.
(Malaria, 2010)
Table 4. Precipitation and temperature trends in Gabon. Both 20th and 21st century data and
predictions. (Hardos, 2010)