Does the Technology Exist? Understanding the Provision of Energy Efficiency and the Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Regulations By Rasha Ahmed Assistant Professor Department of Economics Trinity College Hartford, CT Phone: 860 297 2446 Fax: 860 297 2163 Rasha.Ahmed@trincoll.edu And Mark Stater Associate Professor Department of Economics Trinity College Hartford, CT Phone: 860 297 2462 Fax: 860 297 2163 Mark.Stater@trincoll.edu Abstract: Global energy demand has been increasing by about 2% per year for the past 35 years and is expected to increase at that rate if no significant change in energy use takes place. The resulting environmental threats of increased carbon emissions and global warming have focused attention on alternative policies to reduce energy consumption. Policy makers are considering polices to improve the energy efficiency of different consumer products including household appliances, automobiles and light bulbs. The Department of Energy (DOE) has imposed minimum efficiency standards to increase the energy efficiency of household appliances and has adopted various programs to promote production of green and smart appliances. Similarly, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard on automobiles aims at improving the fuel economy of new automobiles. Despite the importance of energy efficiency regulation, in many cases these regulations were slow to emerge. One reason is the concern that the technology does not exist to improve the energy efficiency of products without significantly sacrificing other product quality attributes. In 2008 the CAFE standard increased by 40% to 35mpg for passenger cars after a long period of 20 years where the standard was set at 27.5 mpg. Previous attempts to raise CAFE have been strongly opposed by the automobile industry claiming that higher standards will require significant tradeoffs in terms of automobile power and weight. The objective of this paper is to understand the tradeoffs involved in the provision of energy efficiency in consumer products. This in turn will help us analyze the effectiveness of alternative energy efficiency regulations. Specifically we ask 1) under what conditions is the combination of the product energy efficiency and quality provided by firms inefficient, 2) do firms underprovide energy efficiency conditional on the quality of the product, 3) do energy efficiency regulation always imply a sacrifice in other quality attributes and 4) how effective are alternative energy efficiency regulations? To understand the provision of energy efficiency we build a theoretical model that accounts for the technological tradeoff between energy efficiency and other quality attributes that producers face. Knittel (2012) estimates this tradeoff and shows that a “fuel economy/ weight/ engine power production possibilities frontier” exists. Thus, the choice of energy efficiency will depend on consumer preferences over product attributes as well as the technological tradeoff. The paper builds a model of quality choice where a monopoly firm choses the product attributes of different models that it offers. There are two groups of consumers that differ in their willingness to pay for (or intensity of use of) the product, referred to as the high and the low group. Both groups value the service they get from the product which is determined by the energy efficiency and the product quality. The firm produces two product models, one for each group. The model is similar to models in Fischer (2005) and Ferrara (2007), which model the choice of a single product attribute. However, in this paper we generalize by considering multiple product attributes with a tradeoff between energy efficiency and product quality. The results suggest that when the energy price is lower than the true energy cost, the monopoly will underprovide energy efficiency to each group. In addition, information problems that do not allow the firm to identify the consumer type will lead to further distortion in the energy efficiency/quality choice to the low willingness-to-pay group. The firm produces a green model for the high willingness-to-pay group only if the energy price is high enough. Interestingly enough the monopolist may produce a product with an energy efficiency/ quality combination that is below the technological frontier. This will depend on the number of consumers in each group and on their willingness to pay. The results suggest that improvements in energy efficiency may not result in sacrificing product quality. Thus the technology to improve energy efficiency may exist but not be fully utilized.1 References: Fischer, Carolyn (2005). “On the Importance of the Supply Side in Demand-Side Management,” Energy Economics, 27(1): 165-180. Ferrara, Ida (2007). "Automobile quality choice under pollution control regulation," Environmental & Resource Economics, 38(3): 353-372. Knittel, C. R. Forthcoming. “Automobiles on Steroids: Product Attribute Trade-Offs and 1 The authors are still working on analyzing the efficiency of alternative policies including an energy tax and a CAFE type standard. Technological Progress in the Automobile Sector.” American Economic Review JEL Codes: Q40, Q48, Q58