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RISK V PROBABILITY I have seen so much fudged nonsense about risk now from NIWA -and MfE-related circles that the only remedy I can see is to continue to have input for an independent well-qualified statistician who is strongminded enough to insist that remote and speculative projections be distinguished from solid statistical evidence. (I have yet to find anyone in NIWA who understands that risk is not about the probability distribution for the further shoreline. That probability distribution is what it is whether people are risk lovers or risk averse. Risk is about attitude to loss and gain. A risk neutral person will be indifferent about tossing a coin to win or lose a dollar. A risk averse person would choose not to toss the coin. The probability distribution for the outcome from tossing the coin is what it is, either way. The same is true for the future position of the shoreline. The statistician on the panel was right to point this out (albeit much more tersely). Too many scientists don’t seem to want to take it on board. They seem to want to adjust the probability distribution for tossing the coin for risk–arbitrarily.) B Wilkinson 12-02-15