10/04/2013 @ 10:00 a.m.
TS Karen Update. TS Karen is still battling some wind shear and dry air at this time. The environmental
window for TS Karen, to strengthen to a hurricane is starting to close. Some strengthening is expected
over the next 24 hours based on what we see right now…but the environment is less conducive for rapid
significant development.
A Hurricane Watch is still in effect along the coast. That will be re-evaluated this afternoon by NWS
forecasters and may be replaced with a Tropical Storm Watch if current trends hold and no
strengthening is seen or forecasted. The timing of the cold front moving in from the NW will complicate
exactly where TS Karen makes landfall and how strong it will be at landfall. Expect additional shifts in the
track.
Potential Impacts:
Heavy Rainfall: 2 to 4 inches Friday through Sunday with locally higher amounts 4 to 8 inches
possible. Heaviest rainfall will be near the coast.
Mostly flooding of poor drainage areas and smaller stream basins. Large river basins right now would
see minor flooding at worst…mainly south of Highway 84.
Shoal Creek, Yellow River, Blackwater River, Big Coldwater Creek, Styx River, Fish River: Minor
Flooding possible based on what we see now.
Wind Impacts: 40 to 50 mph winds (35 to 45 kts) possible over the marine area late Friday Night into
Saturday morning…especially in squalls with bands of thunderstorms. Tropical storm force winds at the
coast Saturday morning.
Coastal Flooding…Storm Surge and Tide Levels: Stronger East to Southeast winds Saturday into Sunday
could produce 3 to 4 feet inundation flooding over land…mainly Alabama Coast and westward. 1 to 3
feet inundation over the western Florida Panhandle. Astronomical high tide is during the evening hours.
First to Flood: starting early Saturday Morning…Dauphin Island…Mobile Causeway…Fort Pickens.
Beaches: Expect a HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS through Sunday. Also beach erosion with
higher wave run-up possible through Sunday. High tide for this event will be during the evening hours.