G3B Individual Research Enquiry Task for 2016 Centres/individual candidates requiring additional support should complete the G3B Candidates ’Individual Project Approval Form. Written in partnership with Field Studies Council (FSC). FSC is an environmental education charity established in 1943. It is the leading provider of fieldwork with over 50% of all A Level geography students visiting its network of centres each year. For further information please visit: http://www.field-studies-council.org/outdoorclassroom © WJEC CBAC Ltd Geography GCE – G3B Topics and Titles for 2016 Spec. No THEME TOPIC G3.2.1 Geography of Crime The perception of crime G3.2.2 Deprivation Contrasts in deprivation G3.2.3 Geography of Disease Factors affecting disease G3.2.4 Environmental Psychology Gender and environmental perception G3.2.5 Leisure & Recreation Changing patterns of leisure and recreation G3.2.6 Microclimates Factors affecting microclimate G3.2.7 Atmospheric & Water Pollution Impacts of pollution G3.2.8 Geography of Retailing Changing retail patterns G3.2.9 Rivers Flood Management G3.2.10 Small Scale Ecosystems Management of a small-scale ecosystem 1 Spec No Theme G3 2.9 Rivers: Flood Management Potential aims/titles for an investigation What are the factors that make River X vulnerable to flooding? Which stretches of River X have the highest flood risk? Which management strategies are used to manage the flooding of River X? Do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? 1. Planning Stages of the Investigation Develop your knowledge of the topic by consulting geographical literature or searching the Internet. This topic is covered in G1 Key Question 2.6: ‘How is the flood hazard perceived and managed within a drainage basin?’ Decide on issue to be investigated and develop your knowledge of the places being studied. Candidates may decide on an overarching enquiry question, such as: What are the causes of flooding of River X and how is the flood risk managed? Alternatively, candidates may present their enquiry as a hypothesis, such as: Flood control measures on River X are effective. Decide on a number of potential locations for fieldwork using O.S maps, local knowledge, local newspaper reports or the rivers studied as part of the AS level course. Decide on the location for the investigation and develop your knowledge of the place(s) being studied. Accessibility, safety considerations and considerations of scale will all be important. Ensure that candidates acquire a ‘sense of place’ about the river they will be investigating – Where is it? What size is it? Which settlements are at risk from flooding? Visit your chosen location for a pilot survey. This is necessary to familiarise candidates with the environment they will be studying and to confirm its suitability. 2 Undertake a risk assessment. Candidates need to identify potential risks and how they can be minimised. Teacher and/or parental approval are essential. Obtain any equipment (if required) checking availability and how to operate it. Candidates need to check on the availability of suitable equipment and be shown how to operate it, checking that it is in working order and complete with batteries/chargers. This will ensure that they maximise both the quality and quantity of data they will be collecting. Prepare recording sheets/ design questionnaire surveys. Candidates should be encouraged to design their own recording sheets and/or questionnaires in the classroom before undertaking fieldwork. Pilot recording sheets and/or questionnaires should be tested either with teacher and/or peer support. The flood defence at location (insert OS grid reference ………) is: 1 2 3 attractive well maintained natural Blends into the urban environment 4 5 Ugly badly maintained Unnatural Stands out in the urban environment Decide on sampling strategy/ies. This stage involves a revision of sampling strategies studied during the AS course. Selected sampling strategies need to be justified and decisions for the non-use of others need to be given. Check weather conditions if relevant. Weather conditions are more critical to the success of some fieldwork methods than others. Microclimates are best developed under HP conditions. River measurements should only be undertaken when it is safe to do so, with water level below knee height. Decide on day, date and time of survey. Arrange appointments if your investigation involves interviews/visits. 3 2. Data Collection Identify a clear question, hypothesis or issue. Developing sub questions may help to bring greater clarity to complex investigations. Sub questions for the overarching enquiry question: What are the causes of flooding of River X and how is the flood risk managed? The sub questions outlined in Figure 1 are arranged in order, with the first representing the most ‘physical’, those in the middle offering balance of physical and human, and the fourth providing a more ‘human’ context. There is no requirement for candidates to select all four sub questions: selecting at least two from the following four potential sub questions would be sufficient. Figure 1 Four potential sub questions to a flood management investigation 1. The links between weather, soil/rock types, land use and river discharge i.e. the links between movement of water through the drainage basin and the response of a river (its hydrograph) which increase the risk of flooding and therefore the need for management. 2. Flood risk / vulnerability. Students could identify locations that are at highest flood risk within a community. 3. The flood prevention strategies used such as flood warnings, preparedness, and hard/soft engineering strategies. 4. Flood perceptions in a community i.e. do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? Physical Human What are the factors that make River X vulnerable to flooding? Which stretches of River X have the highest flood risk? Which management strategies are used to manage the flooding of River X? Do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? Justify the reasons for selecting the location and the data set(s) you plan to collect. Justification can be based on accessibility, safety considerations and considerations of scale and the time available to complete the data collection. Briefly outline the geographical context of your investigation. Ensure that candidates provide a ‘sense of place’ about the area under investigation. From an assessment perspective it is useful for the examiner to obtain an understanding of the location, scale of the study and the time-scales involved. Describe your field area with words and an annotated base map; you could also give some background information about the area. A sketch-map may be useful, together with a brief summary of the location studied and its characteristics. 4 Describe how you collected the data for your study. Include recording sheets and/or sample questionnaires. The description should include a stage by stage account of precisely how the data was collected. The hallmark of a good description is that it can be replicated. Recording sheets and/or questionnaires designed in the classroom should be included. Explain the sampling technique(s) used and justify your choice(s). The AS Specification requires candidates to understand the importance of sampling and avoiding bias when collecting data. Selected sampling strategies need to be justified and decisions for the non-use of others need to be given. Some topics may not lend themselves to sampling, particularly if based on secondary data. Briefly discuss any difficulties/ factors affecting your enquiry (e.g. bad weather) and possible bias when collecting information. Difficulties may include the need to adapt/alter the methodology because of unforeseen circumstances. Candidates should think critically about the accuracy and rigour of the data collection methods used. 5 What are the factors that make River X vulnerable to flooding? Primary Data Secondary Data Infiltration: This could be tackled in two ways. The first through a series of experiments set-up to measure the infiltration rates of a variety of soil types. This could be done in the school grounds. The second way would be to collect a series of results from points in the drainage basin, after looking at the soil types & geology maps. 1: 25 000 O.S maps: Provide information of drainage basin catchment including the main channel & tributaries. Geology maps: Provide information on the permeability/porosity of underlying rocks. Bank full measurements: This could involve a range of measurements at different points within the drainage basin e.g. bank full width and bank full depth measurements of the height of the river when it was last in flood. Land use & management mapping: The drainage basin could be mapped according to a selection of land use categories e.g. different types of vegetation, tarmac or concrete. Photographs of the different categories of land use could also be taken. Management structures e.g. hard or soft engineering could also be mapped on this. Which stretches of River X have the highest flood risk? Land Use Survey: Students could classify and plot different land uses on to a base map. This could be designed to make some assessment of the economic value of the land. For example, a grid could be placed over the drainage basin and a score could be given to the percentage of the dominant land use in each square. This could be multiplied by a score given to the economic value of the land e.g. 5= high value retail & offices, 4= middle retail, high value residential etc. Likelihood of flooding Survey: The drainage basin could be divided into grid squares, scores could assigned to the factors that make the grid square more likely to flood e.g. height above river, distance from river etc. Field Sketches and Photographs: Students could also annotate field sketches or photographs showing land uses and locations they consider to be vulnerable to flooding. Some students may decide to take photographs at equal intervals along the river, a systematic sample, and then create an assessment method to determine how vulnerable each location might be. They may consider things such as, how eroded the river bank is, distance from the river, the type of surface of the land between the location and the river (impermeable or permeable), any obvious SUDS systems etc. Climate data: This can be found from the Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-historic/#?tab=climateHistoric Frequency of flooding & heights of floods: This can be found from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology: http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/nrfa/index.html River Basin Management Plans: Including data and management information can be found from: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/river-basin-management-plans Old photographs / maps: Can be used to compare past and present. Websites such as Geograph or Flickr show photos of rivers in flood. http://www.geograph.org.uk/ provides photographs of every grid square. Long profile: This can give information about regions in the drainage basin that may have lower gradients. Lower gradient areas may contribute to the ‘pooling’ of the flood waters. Valley cross-sections: Drawing valley profiles of the river, from map data, may show areas where run-off is particularly severe. Environment Agency Flood Risk maps: (see Figure 5) http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/default.aspx Environment Agency Surface Water and River/Sea Flood Risk Mapping: http://watermaps.environmentagency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiyby.aspx?topic=ufmfsw&scale=11&ep=map&layerGroups=default&lang=_e&y=312582&x=349380# x=349380&y=312582&scale=11 Valuation Agency Site: Council tax and business rates for properties in England and Wales. http://www.voa.gov.uk/ Flood defence survey: Students could annotate a base map, showing the types, locations and scales of the existing flood defences. Dominant Land Use Assessment: If the base map was divided into a grid of, say, 50m x 50m, the dominant land-use in each square could be recorded. Drawing on the 1 in 100 year flood plain would highlight which grid squares were on or off the flood plain. See: http://www.geography-fieldwork.org/riverfieldwork/flooding/stage2.htm. Other flood zones could be used, see: http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/flood-risk-and-coastalchange/flood-zone-and-flood-risk-tables/table-1-flood-zones/ 6 Risk and vulnerability Land use data can be analysed further, after the fieldtrip, with the use of an OS map. Students can assign each location they have visited with a flood risk index. This can be calculated by: Which management strategies are used to manage the flooding of River X? How effective are flood management strategies? Scoring each land use. For example, score 1 for land uses that are relatively unaffected by flooding (such as recreational land) through to a score of 5 for high value land uses such as a High Street chain store. Your students can be involved in deciding on an appropriate scoring system. Calculating the height of the location above the river (using spot heights / contours on the OS map). Multiplying (a) by (b) to give a flood risk index. These index scores can then be mapped to identify locations at greatest risk (see Fig. 2 below). See: http://www.geography-fieldwork.org/riverfieldwork/flooding/stage2.htm Flood defence survey: Students could annotate a base map, showing the types, locations and scales of the existing flood defences. Field sketches and photos of river management schemes can be labelled and annotated. Environmental Impact Assessment: Visual / environmental impact assessment may include a survey of flood defences such as embankments, gabions, willow planting, flood walls or demountable defences. Local residents sometimes complain that flood defences are ugly and spoil their view of the river. Students could be asked to conduct a bi-polar survey of the flood defences they see. A simple bi-polar visual / environmental impact assessment is suggested below: 1 Attractive Well Maintained Natural Blends into the environment 2 3 4 5 Ugly Badly maintained Unnatural Stands out in the environment Old photographs / maps: Can be used to compare past and present. Websites such as Geograph or Flickr show photos of rivers in flood. http://www.geograph.org.uk/ provides photographs of every grid square. Environment Agency River Catchment plans: (see Figure 3) http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/planning/33586.aspx. Development Control: Locating properties outside the floodplain is a way to reduce risk. Auditing any recent and proposed building in the catchment would give information as to the effectiveness of the local planning authority’s measures. National Flood Forecasting Centre: http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/ Newspaper articles: Articles relating to actual flood events may give information on whether important infrastructure has been protected to avoid any secondary impacts associated with the flood events, such as loss of energy, transport routes etc. Cost benefit of the flood defences: This could look at reducing the likelihood of the flooding along the river. Secondary data could then be used to look at the reduction of impacts when flooding does occur. Protective measures assessment: This could be completed either as a visual assessment during a flood event or a questionnaire outside a flood event. Each individual house holder may employ resistance measures at individual properties to keep the water from entering them and to reduce the damage if water does enter (resilience methods e.g. water resistant plaster). Resistance measures could be sand bags, door guards, waterproof doors and airbricks. The National Flood Forum is a good source of information: http://www.nationalfloodforum.org.uk/property-level-protection-community-tool/ 7 Assessment of Vulnerability: The National Planning Policy Framework – Planning Practice Guidance contains Flood Risk Vulnerability Classification which could also be used to decide how vulnerable the location is and if there is adequate flood protection provided by the flood management strategy. The infrastructure could be mapped or dominant infrastructure assessed in a grid system. http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/flood-risk-and-coastalchange/flood-zone-and-flood-risk-tables/table-2-flood-risk-vulnerability-classification/ Essential Transport infrastructure e.g. evacuation routes. Utility Infrastructure infrastructure e.g. electricity generating power stations and grid, primary sub-stations, water treatment works. Highly Police and ambulance stations, fire stations & command Vulnerable centres. Telecommunications. Basement dwellings. Caravans and mobile homes for permanent residential use. Hazardous substances installations. More Hospitals. Residential institutions e.g. residential care homes, Vulnerable children’s homes, prisons. Buildings used for dwellings, student halls, drinking establishment, night clubs. Non-residential health services e.g. nurseries and schools. Less Vulnerable Land and building used for agriculture and forestry. Buildings used for shops, financial, restaurants, offices, storage and distribution. Water Flood control infrastructure, sand and gravel workings, MoD Compatible facilities, sewage works. Do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? Questionnaire surveys of resident / stakeholder perceptions: These look at how ready residents/stakeholders are for a flood, how vulnerable they feel (with a mixture of closed and open questions). This could also include the location of the residents / businesses etc. Questions could be tailored around the different reasons for success e.g. economic, social, environmental or perhaps linked to the location of the different types of flood defences. Interviews: These can be conducted with local residents, planners, businesses, emergency services, Environment Agency (Natural Resources Wales), community pressure groups, local conservation groups. This might also be expanded to include information from secondary resources from the water companies, insurers or elected members of the local government. Newspaper articles: Articles of past flooding and responses to the flood event can be used in a variety of text analysis. POST Article on Natural Flood Management in the UK: http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/POST-PN-396/natural-flood-management Vision of Britain: This web-site includes geographical and historical data from the University of Portsmouth. It includes descriptive and travel writing (as well as historical maps & census reports) which may provide students with information on how different stakeholders’ views have changed over time. http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/ 8 Figure 2 Screenshot of hazard risk map of Taunton produced by students working with FSC Figure 3 Screen shot from Environment Agency locating gauging stations. Click on the green circle to access information for that station. http://www.environment- agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120756.aspx 9 Figure 4 Screen shot from Environment Agency showing ‘live’ discharge data http://www.environmentagency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120756.aspx?stationId=4226 Figure 5 Screen shot from Environment Agency showing flood risk near Baglan 10 3. Data Refinement and Display Refine the data into tables. Tables can be helpful in providing an effective summary of the data collected, compiled from individual recording sheets/questionnaires. Use a range of appropriate graphical techniques (given on pages 15 and 16 of the specification) to present the data accurately and clearly. Justify your choices. It is expected that candidates will select more advanced techniques than those used at GCSE and AS. Candidates should be encouraged to be more innovative at this level through, for example, combining graphical and cartographical techniques together. Providing candidates with a list of suitable options may assist with the development and use of more advanced techniques. Candidates need to explain why the chosen technique has been used. Include field sketches and annotated photographs. Include any cartographical (mapping) techniques (given on pages 15 and 16 of the specification). Justify your choices. Evaluate your methods of presentation – how effective are they in showing the data you collected. Would alternative methods have been better? 11 Data Refinement and Display What are the factors that make River X vulnerable to flooding? River cross-sections: Can be located on a drainage basin base map. Calculations of bank-full cross-sectional area and wetted perimeter can be made. GIS mapping of drainage basin: A contour base map could form the basis for this with other information mapped on top e.g. concrete/tarmac coverage, vegetation cover, geology, soil types, management structures etc. This could be done on a digital GIS or overlaid hand drawn on tracing paper. Infiltration graphs: Line graphs to show infiltration rates at different sites. These could also be located on a base map of the drainage basin. Bar graphs: To show flood height against the date. This could be completed for different parts of the drainage basin and located on a base map. Climate graphs: These can be drawn from the climate data to assess aspects such as susceptibility to prolonged rainfall or intense rainfall at certain times of the year. This data could be compared with the bar graph of the height of the river levels. Which stretches of River X have the highest flood risk? Economic Land Value Map: The data from the land use map could be shown on a base map with the grid layered over the top. This could be coloured to show the economic land value, as in a choropleth map. Flood Likelihood Map: This could be completed in a similar way to the above. Field sketches and photographs: These could be annotated and located on a base map of the drainage basin. The annotations should clearly show why the students think these locations are vulnerable to flooding. If students have carried out a systematic sample and then completed an assessment of the vulnerability then would be able to represent this in a radar diagram, located next to the photograph on a base map. Flood defence map: A base map with the flood defences drawn on, together with scales, photographs and annotations. Dominant Land Use Map: This could be a base map, with the grid system overlaid, coloured with the category of the dominant land use. A choropleth map: To show flood risk and/or vulnerability (see Figure 2 for digital example). Mirror graph: To show the dominant land use on & off the flood plain. Scatter graph: To show the flood likelihood against the economic value of land. Long profile: Using a map or digital mapping, a long profile of the river & its tributaries can be drawn. Valley cross-sections: Using a map or digital mapping, valley cross-sections can be drawn. These can be located on a base map of the river drainage basin. 12 Which management strategies are used to manage the flooding of River X? Flood defence map: A base map with the flood defences drawn on, together with scales, photographs and annotations. River Defences Environmental Impact Assessment: This could be displayed by a Radar Diagram, which could be located on a catchment base map, together with photographs and annotated field sketches. River Defences EIA How effective are flood management strategies? Leeves Other usage Walls Embankments Public Safety 5 4 3 2 1 0 Enhances Environment Natural Maintenance Bio-diversity 13 Do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? Wordle: This is a site for analysing text http://www.wordle.net/ Questionnaire data: This can be represented by pictograms, pie charts & bar charts. Stakeholder Analysis: Having found the groups of stakeholders and their interests (positive and negative), it may be possible to use a similar grid to identify levels of influence and interest. Data Coding: Coding is the process of examining data for themes, categories and key words. Students mark the text or chunks of text, so that they can be compared and collated. http://www.nfer.ac.uk/schools/developing-young-researchers/how-to-analyse-questionnaire-responses.cfm 14 4. Description, Analysis and Interpretation Describe and analyse each set of data. Summarise the data using measures of central tendency (mean, median and mode) and dispersion (standard deviation). Use other refining activities that may be relevant such as scaling, ranking and weighting. Look for relationships between the data shown on the graphs and where appropriate use correlation. Although Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient (including statistical significance) is the only statistical technique listed in the AS Specification, candidates should be encouraged, where appropriate and possible, to use other statistical techniques such as Chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U test. Discuss your findings using your geographical understanding of the topic, answering each sub-question in turn. Findings can be defined as the evidence collected throughout the investigation and relate to the tabulation, presentation and analysis of the data collected. Findings can be distinguished from Conclusions, which should be specifically related to the research question/subquestions or hypothesis(es) and should provide an answer to them. 15 Description, Analysis and Interpretation Analysis What are the factors that make River X vulnerable to flooding? Recurrence Intervals: This records the peak annual discharge of the river & gives information about the probability of floods of a particular magnitude occurring. http://thebritishgeographer.weebly.com/hydrographs-recurrenceintervals-and-drainage-basin-responses.html Estimating bank-full discharge: This can be done using Manning equation, using estimates for the coefficient of roughness. Raw, M. (2004) Advance Topic Masters: Rivers. Philip Allen Updates. Or D. Holmes. (Feb 2011) Modelling bankfull flow discharge in rivers. Geography Review. Which stretches of River X have the highest flood risk? Which management strategies are used to manage the flooding of River X? How effective are flood management strategies? Mann- Whitney U test: Looking at the land-use on and off a flood plain would provide an opportunity to complete a Mann-Whitney U test. Null Hypothesis: There is no statistically significant difference between land-use on and off the floodplain in town X Spearman’s Rank: Students could collect data measuring flood likelihood and the economic value of the land. The Null Hypothesis could be: There is no significant correlation between flood likelihood and the economic value of the land. You would expect the land to be of a higher economic value in areas less likely to flood, however, flood defences and pressures from development may change this. See http://www.geographyfieldwork.org/riverfieldwork/flooding/stage2.htm for ways to measure land value and flood likelihood. Chi-squared test: Using the grid data on the vulnerability, students could determine if there is a significant difference in the vulnerability of the land around the flood defences. A Null Hypothesis could be: There is no significant difference in land vulnerability between flood defended areas and non-flood defended areas. See example below: No of cells within 100m of flood defence Essential Infrastructure 153 112 Highly Vulnerable 96 120 More Vulnerable 65 42 Less Vulnerable 43 65 5 3 Water Compatible Do different stakeholders have different views on the success of flood management strategies? No of grids beyond 100m of flood defence Nearest Neighbour: If students have collected the locations of the stakeholders, they may be able to calculate the degree of clustering/dispersal of the individuals. For example - If students plot on a map, all the stakeholders who think that a particular flood defence is successful (over a particular score on a questionnaire) & also plot the flood defence location they could ask the question: Is there a clustering of individuals who think the flood defences are successful? Once the data has been analysed by the Nearest Neighbour method, it might be possible to suggest that if the stakeholders who think that the flood defences are successful are clustered around that defence, then the flood defence is likely to be the cause of that opinion. 16 5. Conclusion and Evaluation Summarise the conclusions you have been able to reach about each of your subquestions. Your conclusions must be effective and acceptable, linking directly back to the questions. Candidates need to ensure that they provide developed conclusions that are supported with detailed evidence. Generalised conclusions are unlikely to achieve beyond Level 2. Evaluate the methods of data collection and sampling techniques used. Evaluative comment should include both advantages and disadvantages and be specific to the data collection and sampling techniques used. Comment on the strengths and weaknesses of the study as a whole and the importance of obtaining accurate and reliable data. Candidates should reflect critically on every stage of their investigation in order to appreciate its strengths and weaknesses. They should also comment on the level of accuracy and degree of reliability of data as these will have a significant impact on their findings and the conclusions drawn. Suggest further research that could be carried out and/or questions to be answered. Further research may involve extending the spatial and/or temporal scale of the study, conducting similar research in a different location(s) or creating further sub-questions that could be investigated. 17