RIVER MURRAY WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, 2ND DECEMBER 2016 Trim Ref: D15/87089 Rainfall and Inflows Most of the Basin was dry this week, with the only significant rainfall occurring in the north-east (Map 1). Some smaller falls were recorded on the upper Murray, but these were generally less than 10 mm over the week. In northern NSW, 54 mm was recorded at Emmaville and Tenterfield. In the eastern Darling Downs, a number of stations received over 30 mm, with Stanthorpe and Ballandean recording the highest falls of 83 mm and 62 mm, respectively. In the western Darling Downs, Possum Park (Kowguran) saw 69 mm in the past week. With the continued dry weather across the majority of the Basin, system inflows have continued to remain low this week. Map 1- Murray-Darling Basin rainfall week ending 2nd December 2015 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology) The week saw milder temperatures across most of the Basin. A number of locations in the southern Basin saw the lowest maximum and minimum temperatures for November on Thursday and Friday morning, respectively. At Dartmouth, the temperature dropped to 1.5 oC on Friday morning which was in the lowest 10% of records (-0.2oC being the lowest recorded). The southern Basin is forecast to see warmer temperatures over the coming week, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasting that the areas from the Lower Lakes to Balranald and the Lower Darling will reach the low-40s over the weekend. Further upstream, in the areas from Swan Hill to Albury, temperatures are forecast to reach into the high-30s. GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 1 of 8 November and Spring 2015 Summary November 2015 saw wetter conditions than the long-term average across the majority of the Basin (Map 2). BoM has reported that overall rainfall for the Basin was 21% above the long-term mean, with an area-averaged total of 48.4 mm—the 49th lowest (of 116) November rainfall on record. In contrast, BoM also reports that spring area-average rainfall for the Murray-Darling Basin was 30% below the mean, and was 35th lowest on record due to the very dry conditions seen in September and October. Map 2 - Murray Darling Basin rainfall deciles for November 2015 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology). Temperatures for November were above average across almost all of Australia, including the Murray– Darling Basin (Map 3). In particular, minimum temperatures were the equal highest on record across Australia. Queensland recorded their 2nd highest mean and minimum temperature anomaly (+1.96 oC and 1.87 oC, respectively), and 3rd highest maximum temperature anomaly (+2.06 oC). NSW, Victoria and South Australia had maximum temperatures anomalies greater than 2 oC above the long-term average, which ranked in the top 20 warmest on record. Spring 2015 was the 2nd warmest spring on record for Australia with a maximum temperature anomaly of +2.08 oC (compared with the record in 2014 of +2.32 oC). All Basin states recorded temperature anomalies in the top 10 highest on record. Victoria recorded their second highest maximum temperature anomaly in spring (+2.99 oC) while NSW and South Australia recorded their 4th highest (+2.86 oC and +2.71 oC, respectively). GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 2 of 8 Map 3 - Murray Darling Basin mean temperature anomaly for November 2015 (Source: Bureau of Meteorology). Despite the higher rainfall throughout November, the warm temperatures and dry catchments resulted in inflows staying relatively stable. Monthly inflows (excluding Snowy, Darling, IVT and environmental inflows) increased slightly from around 245 GL in October to around 250 GL during November (see the graph on page 8). Based on historic data, this volume would be exceeded in November in 85 out of 100 years. Estimated evaporation losses from MDBA storages for November 2015 are reported in Table 1. Evaporation is estimated by multiplying the surface area of the storage by the net evaporation. Net evaporation is derived by subtracting the rainfall recorded at the storage from the calculated evaporation. Compared to last year, evaporation for November 2015 was significantly lower at both Dartmouth and Hume. This can be attributed to the lower temperatures and higher rainfall in the south-eastern regions of the Basin, as well as the lower volumes of water in storage (hence smaller wetted surface areas). At Menindee Lakes and Lake Victoria, evaporative losses were more consistent with those from last year. Table 1: Monthly evaporation figures for MDBA storages Approximate (net) Average storage Percentage Percentage evaporative loss in volume in November Evaporative Loss Evaporative Loss Storage November 2015 (GL)** 2015 (GL) Nov 15 Nov 14 Dartmouth 0.5 2,280 0.02% 0.2% Hume 8.7 1,373 0.6% 1.2% Lake Victoria 19 577 3.3% 3.9% Menindee Lakes 12 83.4 14.4% 16% **Evaporative loss from storage = surface area of the storage x net evaporation. Net evaporation = measured evaporation (using a ‘pan’ instrument) - rainfall. GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 3 of 8 River Operations This week, an update of the River Murray system annual operating plan (AOP) was uploaded to the MDBA website. This provides an update on how the River Murray system operations are currently tracking, and how the system may be operated under a range of different scenarios for the remainder of the water year. Bulk transfers from Dartmouth to Hume reach 1,000 GL North Central CMA working with Yorta Yorta and Barapa Barapa traditional owners to monitor culturally significant sites on Gunbower Island After another week with no significant rainfall in the southern Basin, MDBA total storage decreased by 88 GL, with the active storage now 3,925 GL (47% capacity). At Dartmouth Reservoir, the storage volume fell by 48 GL to 2,177 GL (56% capacity). The release, measured at Colemans, has decreased from around 8,000 ML/day to just below 7,400 ML/day and will continue reducing to target approximately 6,500 ML/day as forecast in last week’s flow advice. Storage at Hume Reservoir decreased by 31 GL to 1,345 GL (45% capacity) this week. Releases increased to approximately 14,000 ML/day over the weekend before being reduced to target 13,200 ML/day at Doctors Point. The total volume of bulk transfers from Dartmouth reached 1,000 GL for the current water year. Without these transfers, Hume storage would otherwise be around 11% capacity. At Yarrawonga Weir, diversions through the major offtakes, Mulwala Canal and Yarrawonga Main Channel, remained steady at around 2,600 ML/day and 1,200 ML/day, respectively. The pool level bounced back from a large loss at the beginning of the week (due to strong westerly winds) to remain relatively constant at around 124.78 m AHD. The release from Yarrawonga was varied slightly to encourage fish spawning. This variation saw the release reduce to around 9,500 ML/day, before increasing to target 10,000 ML/day at the end of the week. These releases, at close to channel capacity, are to help meet current and future downstream requirements. On the Edward River system, the inflow through the Edward offtake has continued at around 1,600 ML/day whilst inflows through the Gulpa offtake has decreased from around 720 ML/day to 620 ML/day. Flow through the Gulpa offtake, which is above the normal summer maximum of 350 ML/day, is being used to maintain water levels in parts of Millewa Forest to support bird breeding. The latest survey by NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service estimated that over 1,000 pairs of birds are nesting in the forest, including Royal Spoonbills, Eastern Great Egrets, Little Pied Cormorants and Nankeen Night Herons. Higher flows through Gulpa offtake, supplied by environmental water holders, are expected to continue into the New Year. Diversions into the Wakool Main Canal have averaged approximately 200 ML/day. The flow downstream of Stevens Weir remains close to channel capacity (about 2,600 ML/day) as water is delivered through the Edward Escape to bypass the Barmah Choke. On the Goulburn River, the flow at McCoys Bridge averaged around 450 ML/day, down from an average of 500 ML/day last week. On the Campaspe River, the flow at Rochester has averaged around 40 ML/day this week. These flows include Inter-Valley Trade (IVT) water. At Torrumbarry Weir, the flow downstream has remained steady, averaging around 5,500 ML/day. Diversions through the National Channel are just below 2,500 ML/day. This includes around 650 ML/day to maintain higher flows in Gunbower Creek to support Murray Cod spawning and larval cod development. The majority of these higher flows return to the River Murray upstream of Barham and are used to help meet downstream demands. Delivery of environmental water to Gunbower forest has now finished. In all, around 28 GL of water was delivered to the forest during spring 2015, filling permanent and semi-permanent wetlands. North Central CMA Living Murray staff have been working with both Yorta Yorta and Barapa Barapa traditional owners to establish a cultural values monitoring program on Gunbower Island. As part of the program, during the recent watering event, exclusion cages (primarily targeting carp) were installed to examine ecological differences compared to surrounding areas. The cages have shown growth of threatened River Swamp Wallaby Grass which has not been seen in large quantities outside of the cages (Figure 1). GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 4 of 8 Figure 1 - Barapa Barapa traditional owners monitor the composition of wetland vegetation inside the exclusion cages at Black Swamp in Gunbower Forest (photo courtesy of North Central CMA) On the lower Murrumbidgee River, flow at Balranald increased to around 1,100 ML/day, before decreasing to just below 650 ML/day. Flows are expected to begin increasing in the next week as IVT water is delivered. These IVT deliveries are planned to continue into the New Year. On the River Murray at Euston Weir, the flow receded slowly to around 7,600 ML/day. The flow is expected to remain between 6,800 ML/day and 8,000 ML/day for the next few weeks. The weir pool level will be held around 30 cm above full supply level (FSL) (47.60 m AHD) for the next week or so before gradually lowering to FSL. On the Darling River, total storage in Menindee Lakes decreased by 2 GL to the current volume of 79 GL (5% capacity). Releases at Weir 32 averaged around 150 ML/day and are now likely to continue until around 20 December 2015. For more information regarding the management of Menindee Lakes in 2015-16 see the NSW Department of Primary Industries’ latest community information communique. The weir pools at Locks 8 and 9 will be held at 50 cm below and 10 cm below FSL, respectively, throughout December. During the coming week, Lock 7 will begin gradually lowering to target 50 cm below FSL (22.1 m AHD). At Lake Victoria, the storage volume started this week at a peak of 603 GL before falling to 597 GL (88%), a decrease of 6 GL. The flow to South Australia averaged just over 6,100 ML/day this week and will target 6,500 ML/day in early December, which is the net flow resulting from the monthly entitlement, trade and the monthly deferred storage volume. At the Lower Lakes, the 5-day average level for Lake Alexandrina reduced this week by 4 cm to 0.78 m AHD due to falling inflows and increasing evaporation. In response, releases through the barrages were ceased, with only an estimated 200 ML/day continuing to be released via the fishways. For media inquiries contact the Media Officer on 02 6279 0141 DAVID DREVERMAN Executive Director, River Management GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 5 of 8 Water in Storage Week ending Wednesday 02 Dec 2015 Full Supply Level MDBA Storages Dartmouth Reservoir Hume Reservoir Lake Victoria Menindee Lakes Total Total Active MDBA Storage Current Storage Level Full Supply Volume (m AHD) 486.00 192.00 27.00 (GL) 3 856 3 005 677 1 731* 9 269 Major State Storages Burrinjuck Reservoir Blowering Reservoir Eildon Reservoir (m AHD) 455.86 181.75 26.33 Current Storage (GL) 2 177 1 345 597 79 4 198 % 56% 45% 88% 5% 45% 699 653 1 713 68% 40% 51% 1 026 1 631 3 334 Dead Storage Active Storage (GL) 71 23 100 (- -) # -- (GL) 2 106 1 322 497 0 3 925 47% ^ 3 24 100 696 629 1 613 Change in Total Storage for the Week (GL) -48 -31 -6 -2 -88 -6 -37 -35 * Menindee surcharge capacity – 2050 GL ** All Data is rounded to nearest GL ** # NSW takes control of Menindee Lakes when storage falls below 480 GL, and control reverts to MDBA when storage next reaches 640 GL ^ % of total active MDBA storage Snowy Mountains Scheme Storage Lake Eucumbene - Total Snowy-Murray Component Target Storage Snowy diversions for week ending 01 Dec 2015 Active Storage (GL) 2 328 1 141 1 510 Weekly Change (GL) -23 -6 Diversion (GL) From 1 May 2015 266 138 128 440 This Week Snowy-Murray Tooma-Tumut Net Diversion Murray 1 Release +9 +3 6 +11 Major Diversions from Murray and Lower Darling (GL) * New South Wales This Week Murray Irrig. Ltd (Net) Wakool Sys Allowance Western Murray Irrigation Licensed Pumps Lower Darling TOTAL 7.1 2.4 1.0 4.2 0.3 15.0 From 1 July 2015 203 28 3 71 4 309 Victoria This Week Yarrawonga Main Channel (net) Torrumbarry System + Nyah (net) Sunraysia Pumped Districts Licensed pumps - GMW (Nyah+u/s) Licensed pumps - LMW TOTAL 6.6 12.1 3.3 0.5 6 28.5 From 1 July 2015 110 219 38 16 102 485 * Figures derived from estimates and monthly data. Please note that not all data may have been available at the time of creating this report. ** All data above is rounded to nearest 100 ML for weekly data and nearest GL for cumulative data** Flow to South Australia (GL) * Flow to SA will be greater than normal entitlement for this month due to the delivery of additional environmental water. Salinity (EC) Entitlement this month Flow this week Flow so far this month Flow last month 217.0 * 42.8 13.2 210.5 (6 100 ML/day) (microSiemens/cm at 25o C) Current Swan Hill Euston Red Cliffs Merbein Burtundy (Darling) Lock 9 Lake Victoria Berri Waikerie Morgan Mannum Murray Bridge Milang (Lake Alex.) Poltalloch (Lake Alex.) Meningie (Lake Alb.) Goolwa Barrages Average over the last week 90 130 120 1 200 110 170 200 340 300 270 290 720 640 2 000 1 300 GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Average since 1 August 2015 90 130 120 1 180 100 230 200 340 290 270 280 710 630 1 980 1 200 Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au 80 130 130 980 140 230 220 280 290 310 330 750 570 2 030 1 020 Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 6 of 8 River Levels and Flows Week ending Wednesday 02 Dec 2015 7.3 - 1.46 3.06 3.00 2.85 1.87 2.92 1.62 2.22 1.88 1.15 3.07 1.54 2.83 3.43 0.87 207.98 219.95 156.63 151.32 149.31 128.94 116.66 106.06 80.42 64.07 52.19 43.38 27.59 20.36 - (ML/day) 1 500 2 510 7 560 12 760 13 150 13 660 9 940 9 980 5 490 5 710 8 160 7 650 7 620 6 260 6 100 2 890 F R S F F F S R S S F R F R F F (ML/day) 1 470 2 420 7 810 13 300 13 690 13 600 9 710 9 810 5 530 5 720 8 290 7 910 7 970 6 520 5 800 3 080 Average Flow last Week (ML/day) 1 310 2 790 7 730 13 200 13 790 13 590 9 950 10 040 5 530 6 450 9 940 11 110 11 260 9 380 5 700 4 190 2.8 11.9 9.0 5.5 5.0 6.1 9.0 - 0.92 7.90 1.19 2.42 2.96 1.55 1.00 3.21 4.00 0.65 154.15 145.58 92.61 82.19 58.34 55.05 56.96 - 420 400 460 2 650 2 520 740 620 80 70 0 F F S S R S F F F F 520 460 450 2 540 2 430 770 870 130 80 0 880 810 500 2 340 2 580 870 1 040 90 260 0 1 890 3 870 Minor Flood Stage River Murray Khancoban Jingellic Tallandoon ( Mitta Mitta River ) Heywoods Doctors Point Albury Corowa Yarrawonga Weir (d/s) Tocumwal Torrumbarry Weir (d/s) Swan Hill Wakool Junction Euston Weir (d/s) Mildura Weir (d/s) Wentworth Weir (d/s) Rufus Junction Blanchetown (Lock 1 d/s) (m) Tributaries Kiewa at Bandiana Ovens at Wangaratta Goulburn at McCoys Bridge Edward at Stevens Weir (d/s) Edward at Liewah Wakool at Stoney Crossing Murrumbidgee at Balranald Barwon at Mungindi Darling at Bourke Darling at Burtundy Rocks Gauge local (m) 4.0 4.2 5.5 5.5 4.3 4.6 6.4 6.4 7.3 4.5 8.8 9.1 Height (m AHD) Flow Trend Average Flow this Week Natural Inflow to Hume (i.e. Pre Dartmouth & Snowy Mountains scheme) Weirs and Locks Pool levels above or below Full Supply Level (FSL) Murray Yarrawonga No. 26 Torrumbarry No. 15 Euston No. 11 Mildura No. 10 Wentworth No. 9 Kulnine No. 8 Wangumma Lower Lakes FSL (m AHD) 124.90 86.05 47.60 34.40 30.80 27.40 24.60 u/s -0.11 +0.01 +0.30 -0.02 +0.10 -0.09 -0.53 d/s +0.22 +0.19 -0.49 +0.56 FSL (m AHD) 22.10 19.25 16.30 13.20 9.80 6.10 3.20 No. 7 Rufus River No. 6 Murtho No. 5 Renmark No. 4 Bookpurnong No. 3 Overland Corner No. 2 Waikerie No. 1 Blanchetown u/s +0.51 +0.01 +0.10 +0.00 +0.00 -0.01 -0.08 d/s +1.11 +0.15 +0.17 +0.56 +0.13 +0.04 +0.12 FSL = 0.75 m AHD Lake Alexandrina average level for the past 5 days (m AHD) Barrages 0.78 Fishways at Barrages Openings Level (m AHD) No. Open Goolwa 128 openings 0.76 All closed Mundoo 26 openings 0.78 All closed Boundary Creek 6 openings All closed Ewe Island 111 gates All closed Tauwitchere 322 gates 0.74 All closed AHD = Level relative to Australian Height Datum, i.e. height above sea level GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Rock Ramp Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Open Vertical Slot Open Open Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 7 of 8 Week ending Wednesday 02 Dec 2015 State Allocations (as at 02 Dec 2015) NSW - Murray Valley High security General security Victorian - Murray Valley 97% 15% High reliability Low reliability NSW – Murrumbidgee Valley High security General security Victorian - Goulburn Valley 95% 31% High reliability Low reliability 80% 0% South Australia – Murray Valley NSW - Lower Darling High security General security 92% 0% 50% 0% High security 100% NSW : http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/Water-management/Water-availability/Waterallocations/Water-allocations-summary/water-allocations-summary/default.aspx VIC : SA : http://www.nvrm.net.au/allocations/current.aspx http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/managing-natural-resources/river-murray GPO Box 1801 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au Telephone: 02 6279 0100 Web: www.mdba.gov.au Facsimile: 02 6248 8053 ABN 13679821382 Page 8 of 8