Unit 9: Probability Level 1 & Level 2 Level 3 (≈ Grade G/F) Level 4 (Grade E) Use, understand and apply the language of likelihood in a variety of real life contexts. Level 5 (≈ Grade D) Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1. Find and justify probabilities, and approximations to these, by selecting and using methods based on equally likely outcomes and experimental evidence as appropriate. e.g sample space diagrams Understand that different outcomes may result from repeating an experiment. . Unit 9: Probability Level 7 (≈ Grade B) Level 8 and E.P. (≈ Grade A/A*) To know that if the probability of an event is p then the probability of the event not occurring is 1 – p. Enumerate sets and unions/intersections of sets systematically, using tables, grids and Venn diagrams. Use this to calculate probabilities. Recognise when and how to work with probabilities associated with independent mutually exclusive events. Enumerate sets and unions/intersections of sets systematically, using tables, grids and Venn diagrams. Generate theoretical sample spaces for single and combined events with equally likely, mutually exclusive outcomes and use these to calculate theoretical probabilities. Enumerate sets and unions/intersections of sets systematically, using tables, grids and Venn diagrams. Use this to calculate probabilities. Use probability to predict the theoretical results from a repeated experiment. Understand relative frequency as an estimate of probability and use this to compare outcomes of experiments. This includes calculating expected outcomes. Level 5 (≈ Grade D) Level 6 (≈ Grade C) To find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way. Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1. Use the knowledge that the total probability of all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment is 1 in solving problems. Find and justify probabilities, and approximations to these, by selecting and using methods based on equally likely outcomes and experimental evidence as appropriate. e.g sample space diagrams, logical lists Understand that different outcomes may result from repeating an experiment.

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# Unit 9 Probability