Annual Project Report
Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in Alpine
Areas in Western China and its Demonstration Project
2013
Basic Project Information
Project Title: Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in Alpine Areas in Western
China and its Demonstration Project
UNDP Authorization Number
00060660
UNDP Project Number
00078078
Programme Period
3 Years
Report Period
2013
Approved Total Budget
2.4 Million USD
Participating Organization of UN
United Nations Development Programme
Implementing partners
CICETE
National Cooperative Party
Water Resources Department of Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region
International Cooperative Organization
Third Party Costs
Liaison officer of UNDP
Official Website
Executive Summary
Yang Fang / Mowei Qiu
Most activities of the Subproject of Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in
Alpine Areas in Western China and its Demonstration Project were completed in 2013. Data on
water conditions and the weather for flood forecast become accessible from the constructed
alpine weather stations and hydrological monitoring stations. Meanwhile, the newly developed
snow remote sensing date producing system and snow remote sensing acquisition system can
produce snow and ice data in a timely manner and calculate the snow coverage condition and
its trends.
1. Background
Development Context
Flood control and disaster mitigation are important strategic issues that are tied to the
development of a well-off society in every sense -- the national economy, stability and safety.
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the largest provincial administrative unit, has long
suffered from floods and droughts. As a result of climate change and the development of the
society, the range, frequency and severity of the floods have been expanding annually.
Restrained by traditional factors such as poor infrastructure and weak capacities for
crisis management and by new challenges in the form of climate change and extreme weather,
flood control and disaster mitigation mechanisms in China have not been well developed as
yet, especially in the western areas. The combination of traditional and non-traditional factors
has further made the task of flood control and disaster mitigation even more arduous. While
the Chinese government is always mindful of floods and droughts, as can be seen from
previous documents of the Central Committee, which put emphasis on investing in flood
control and disaster mitigation, it must address these kinds of challenges to ensure sustainable
economic development.
Project Objectives and Strategy
The project aims at establishing and improving the disaster prevention ability for dealing
with snow-melt and ice-melt floods of the western areas by using integrated ground-space
monitoring system and other technological means for flood control and disaster mitigation.
Following the selection of pilot rivers, this project attempts to construct a network of
monitoring stations to track meteorological, snow, hydrographic data to assist in the research
of flood forecasting models, as well as to build processing stations and management systems
which use remote sensing and different mechanisms for flood control. It is also planned to
provide an insurance mechanism to protect human lives and properties and ensure economic
development.
In 2013, it focused on the enhancement of flood prevention techniques, including the the
collecting and processing of the data of basic terrain and soil, snow and ice remote sensing,
vegetation and land use with remote sensing method in project area. The efforts in have
assisted in achieving the overall goals of the project.
2. Key Results
The key achievements of 2013 include a hardware part and a software part. 1 mountain
meteorological monitoring station was built in 2012, and in 2013 the focus was centred on the
improvement of the station. The software part comprises the collecting and processing of the
data of basic terrain and soil, snow and ice remote sensing, vegetation and land use with
remote sensing method in project area.
Project Outputs
Output 1: Improvement of mountain meteorological monitoring station
Output 2: Management Coordination
Activities and Outputs
The project in 2013 carried out activities, as follows:
Activity 1.1 Improved the mountain meteorological monitoring station
1 mountainous meteorological station was constructed in 2012, and the mountainous weather
stations’ automatic data acquisition and transmission system, as well as receiving network
platform, were improved by using Beidou satellite and GSM communication.
Activity 1.2 Collected and processed data of basic terrain and soil, snow and ice remote
sensing, vegetation and land use with remote sensing method in project area
The snow and ice remote sensing acquisition system, which covers extraction and editing of
interactive information of snow and ice remote sensing, was further enhanced, and data was
collected and processed for forecasting and early warning.
Sustainability
In 2013, the mountain meteorological monitoring station was improved. Inhabitants of
China’s western regions who have long been affected by snowmelt floods directly benefit from
this project. As the project progresses, the snowmelt flood forecasting models can be
recommended to Central Asian countries, benefiting the people of other nations who also
suffer from floods. Meanwhile this project can raise public awareness and improve local
communities’ flood early warning and prevention capacities.
Partnership Effectiveness
As our partner, the Department of Water Resources in Xinjiang has played a critical role in
the successful construction of alpine weather stations and hydrological monitoring stations,
which has laid a solid foundation for later acquisition of meteorological and hydrological data.
It has also actively cooperated with Aerors Inc., a private company, to develop software for this
project.
3. Project Management and Oversight
Implementation status
The project has been implemented according to the schedule. The activities were
carried out in line with our expectations and the objectives were achieved.
Monitoring and Evaluation
In order to guarantee the quality, progress and completeness of the project, the project
executive committee has set up a comprehensive supervision system in the planning stage,
and has been supervising the project from the following three aspects.
Supervision on Project Scope. A Change Control Board (CCB) has been established and is
responsible for verifying major changes in implementation, in order to avoid uncontrollable
demand deviation and expanded scope. The CCB consists of the Project Chief Engineer, the
Project Experts, and the Project Leader.
Supervision on Project Schedule. During the planning stage of the project, the committee
designed the work plan and appointed a person in charge for each stage. Quality management
staff would check on the progress on a regular basis. In every stage, accreditations would be
held to guarantee the quality as well as the schedule. Workers would not be allowed to enter
the next stage unless they’ve passed the accreditation.
Supervision on Project Quality. The main management measures include establishing the
baseline, determining activities and tasks for every stage, determining the time frame and
resources required to complete the tasks, determining the threshold conditions for activities,
and designing outputs of activities and follow-up actions, as well as revising plans if necessary.
All these measures aim to ensure the quality of the implementation.
The supervision and evaluation system worked effectively. The project was
implemented and completed as planned, and the quality of its output was in line with the
expectations. The inspection work was completed successfully.
Human Resource Management
Staff of the PROJECT EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE has been allocated according to the
requirements and responsibilities of each position. The main positions include the Project Chief
Engineer, the Project Expert Team, the Planning and Scheduling Team, the System Leader,
the System Design Team, the Algorithm Development Team, the Software Development
Team and the System Testing Staff.
The above-mentioned measures have ensured that human resource is properly allocated,
which has guaranteed the project progress and quality in aspects of hardware, software,
scientific research and implementation.
Risk management
During the implementation of the project in 2013, the PROJECT EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE managed the risks from the following four aspects.
Natural Environment Risk Management. The work of 2013 includes the construction of
facilities such as alpine weather stations and hydrological monitoring stations. Having taken
into consideration of the climatic factors in Xinjiang, the project avoided the extreme weathers
and finished the hardware construction work from May to August.
Resources Risk Management. The implementing agency audited the fund utilisation, and
allocated funds for procurement, research and other activities according to relevant national
regulations and policies. Therefore the resource risk was efficiently managed in 2013.
Personnel Risk Management. During the project planning, the PROJECT EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE carried out a capacity assessment of every staff member and assigned
responsibilities accordingly.
Project Management. During the project planning, the PROJECT EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE set up a complete management system to ensure the quality, progress and
completeness of the project.
Result of the risk management in 2013:
Natural Environment Risk has NOT affected the project implementation.
Resource Risk has NOT affected the project implementation due to effective
management.
Personnel Risk has NOT affected the project implementation.
Project Management has NOT negatively affected the project implementation. The
project was implemented as planned and was completed accordingly with high quality.
4. Financial Management
The Finance Department of the partner organisation supervised the fund utilisation
according to the rules of project management and national regulations.
Source of Fund
Expenditure
Vs.
Budget
UNDP
Expenditure
7,268
17,691.69
215,000
178,753.81
Approved project budget by
source of funding
Government
Cost
Sharing
Third Party Cost-sharing
Other (please specify)
Total
222,268
196,445.50
Expenditure by Activity (US$)
December 2013
Activity
Cost Item
Activity 1
30071
178,753.81
30071
4,761.86
30071
12,030.13
Activity 2
Expenditure
Total
190,783.94
5. Management recommendations
N/A
6. Conclusion
The subproject of Research and Demonstration Projects of Flood Forecasting Systems of
Chinese Western Alpine Areas has been successfully completed for 2013. At this point, the
constructed facilities such as alpine weather stations and hydrological monitoring stations are
able to provide data on water conditions and the weather for flood forecast, and the developed
snow remote sensing date producing system and snow remote sensing acquisition system are
able to produce snow and ice data in a timely manner, calculate the snow coverage condition
and its trends.
7. Annexe/s