SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT BUSI 311 Quantitative Analysis for Management Dr. Roger Conover Fall 2015, 12:50 TTh 3 units INSTRUCTOR INFORMATION: Syllabus # _______ Dr. Roger B. Conover Office Hours: Monday 9 – 10:30; Tuesday 2:30 – 4; Wednesday 12:00 – 2:00, and by appt. Office location: Wilden Hall, Room 219 Email: rconover@apu.edu Phone: 626-815-3823 APU MISSION AND PURPOSE STATEMENT: “Azusa Pacific University is an evangelical Christian community of disciples and scholars who seek to advance the work of God in the world through academic excellence in liberal arts and professional programs of higher education that encourage students to develop a Christian perspective of truth and life.” SBM MISSION AND PURPOSE STATEMENT: “We are a Christ-centered community of scholars and professionals pursuing academic excellence to advance the work of God in the world, developing students of character and competence as difference-makers in business and society” AACSB ASSURANCE OF LEARNING GOALS AND OBJECTIVES: Competent Business Knowledge Students will be able to demonstrate knowledge in multiple business disciplines, including management, finance, marketing, accounting and economics. Critical Thinking Ability Students will be able to identify and solve business problems using analytical and critical thinking skills. Christian Business Ethics Students will be able to demonstrate the ability to evaluate business decisions based on a Christian perspective. Capable Communication Skills Students will be able to convey ideas clearly through professional written communication. Students will be able to express ideas effectively through professional oral presentations. Collaborative Teamwork Ability Students will be able to demonstrate the ability to function as an effective business team member. Comprehensive Global Awareness Students will be able to identify cultural, economic and political aspects of business in a global environment. 1 COURSE INFORMATION: University Catalog Course Description: This course equips students with analytical and mathematical models for business decision making. Included are statistical analysis, project management, simulation, and linear programming. Prerequisite: B or higher in MATH 110 Instructor’s Perspective: This course presents students with mathematical tools useful for business decision-making. Management tools such as linear programming, project management techniques and decision analysis tools will be developed. The course will use a textbook, lectures and discussions. Student evaluation will be based on problem sets, periodic exams and a comprehensive final exam. This is a course about how to make good decisions. "Quantitative" means that most of the decisions that we will look at have numbers associated with them (an inescapable result of the fact that business decisions are usually associated with issues of goods and money). "Analysis" means that we will not be satisfied until we have developed a well-structured way of thinking about the issues. In the complex world of modern business, the failure to think clearly about the problems that you encounter will have serious consequences for your ability to accomplish your business goals. COURSE CREDIT DESCRIPTION: Following the APU Credit Hour policy, to meet the identified student learning outcomes of this course, the expectations are that this 3-unit course, delivered over a 15-week term will approximate: 3 0 0 0 0 hours / week classroom or direct faculty instruction hours / week internship hours / week online work hours / week research hours / week other academic work In addition, out-of-class student work is expected to require a minimum of 6 hours each week. REQUIRED TEXTBOOK AND STUDY RESOURCES: Quantitative Analysis, Azusa Pacific University, Render, Stair, Hanna, and Hale (Pearson, 2015), Compiled by R. Conover. Copyright Responsibilities: Students and faculty are both authors and users of copyrighted materials. As a student you must know the rights of both authors and users with respect to copyrighted works to ensure compliance. It is equally important to be knowledgeable about legally permitted uses of copyrighted materials. Information about copyright compliance, fair use and websites for downloading information legally can be found at http://apu.libguides.com/content.php?pid=241554&search_terms=copyright STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this course, students should be able to demonstrate mastery of the following learning outcomes. The classroom assignments that the instructor will use to assess mastery are identified in the following table. 2 STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOME AACSB LEARNING GOAL ASSIGNMENTS USED TO ASSESS Know what analytical thinking is and why analytical thinking is important for business decision-making; know how to apply analytical thinking to a variety of business problems. Know how to use Excel (or other spreadsheet software) to help organize information and solve analytical problems that arise in a variety of business situations. This includes being able to build their own spreadsheets to solve problems using moderately sophisticated mathematical functions included in Excel and being able to correctly interpret the resulting output. Be able to identify maximization and minimization problems in business, to extract the relevant data from the business situation and to formulate a Linear Programming (LP) problem that will help them solve the problem. Students should be able to correctly solve basic LP problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger LP problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem. Be able to identify problems in business which consist of a sequence of interrelated elements or activities (“projects”). Using the tools of PERT / CPM, students should be able to clearly identify the objective, organize the project to best meet the objective and manage the elements of a project throughout its duration. Students should be able to correctly solve basic PERT/CPM problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger PERT/CPM problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem. Be able to distinguish between risk and uncertainty. Students should be able to extract the relevant data from the business situation and to use the tools of decision analysis (including expected returns, risk aversion and decision trees) to help make good decisions in the face of risk or uncertainty. Students should be able to correctly solve basic decision problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger decision problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problems. For each of the above analytical tools, be able to correctly apply sensitivity analysis to the solutions that they obtain. They should be able to identify which elements of their business problems, if changed, may significantly affect their decisions and which elements may not. They should also be able to correctly identify situations in which they need and should acquire further information before making a decision. Identify and resolve potential ethical issues in the design and use of business analytics based on a Christian value system. Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #1; Exam #1 Homework #2; Homework #3; Exam #2 Homework #4; Final Exam Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #2; Homework #3; Exam #2 Homework #4; Final Exam Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #2; Homework #3; Exam #2 Final Exam Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #4; Final Exam Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #1; Final Exam Competent Business Knowledge; Critical Thinking Ability Homework #1; Exam #1 Homework #2; Homework #3; Exam #2 Homework #4; Final Exam Christian Business Ethics Exam #1; Exam #2; Final Exam 3 COURSE CALENDAR/SCHEDULE: WEEK 9/10 TOPIC HAVE READ INTRODUCTION- Models, Excel, Probability 1, 2 15 Decision Analysis Certainty, Risk 3 22 Decision Analysis Decision Trees --- Review homework for Ch 1-3 Test #1 --- 9/29 HW Ch1 - 3 due Chapters 1-3 Linear Programming 4 13 LP Graphing and Sensitivity Analysis --- 20 Review homework for Ch 4 Applications of Linear Programming --- 10/20 HW Ch 4 due 5 27 Excel Solutions to LP Problems Sensitivity Analysis in LP with Excel ----- Review homework for Ch 5 Test #2 --- 11/3HW Ch 5 due Chapters 4 – 5 10 Project Management: PERT / CPM 6 17 Project Management: PERT / CPM Variable Project times --- 24 PERT / CPM: Crashing Thanksgiving --- PERT Cost --- Review homework for Ch 6 Comprehensive Review ----- 29 10/1 6 11/3 5 12/1 8 12/7 HW Ch 6 due FINAL EXAM: PLEASE CHECK THE FINAL EXAM SCHEDULE FOR TIME. ASSIGNMENTS: Problem Sets Practicing by solving problems is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL to learning mathematical techniques. The following is a list of problems from the end of the chapters that we will cover. I would suggest this list represents the minimum required for a basic understanding of the material. I expect that you will need to work more problems than just these. I cannot stress enough the importance of working these and other problems from the chapters! Homework problem sets are assigned below and are due before class starts on the days indicated. For each problem set, you will be assigned to a group according to the syllabus number on the first 4 page of this syllabus. Each GROUP will turn in one problem set with the names of all group members on it (hand in the original, not a photocopy). Essay explanations should be typed, but you do not need to type the math if you write neatly. On the days that problem sets are due, the answers will be reviewed immediately, so no late papers will be accepted. Make a copy of your problem set for each group member so that everyone can look over your answers in class. Each member is responsible for making sure that the original copy of the assignment is turned in on time. If you delegate that task, you are still responsible for it. Each INDIVIDUAL will submit a team evaluation form at the beginning of class on the day the problem set is due. The evaluation of your performance as a team member will count toward your final course grade. Your failure to submit an evaluation form before class starts on the day the set is due will cause you to lose 10 points. No late evaluations will be accepted. Problem set #1 (50 pts) Chapter 1- Introduction: 16, 17, 24, 25. Chapter 2- Probability: 15, 18, 20, 32, 38, 46. Chapter 3- Decision Theory: 20, 21, 29, 44, 45, 51. Problem set #2 (30 pts) Chapter 4- Linear Programming 14, 25, 26, (set up each problem algebraically and solve graphically); 31, 35 (a-d), (solve graphically); 41, 42, 45 (set up each problem algebraically and solve with Excel) Problem set #3 (30 pts) Chapter 5- LP Applications: Set up each problem algebraically and solve using Excel: 3, 12, 15, 16, 17, 23. Problem set #4 (50 pts) Chapter 6- PERT (be sure to clearly draw the relevant network diagrams): 16, 17 (set up and solve using Excel), 18, 22 (set up an Excel spreadsheet), 28, 30, 31, 33, 34 (assume the times given in 34 are certain) Note: Course schedule, topics, evaluation, and assignments may be changed at the instructor’s discretion. INFORMATION LITERACY AND USE OF THE LIBRARY: Information literacy is defined as “a set of abilities requiring individuals to recognize when information is needed and have the ability to locate, evaluate, and use effectively the needed information” (American Library Association, 1989). In this course, teaching and learning processes will employ the following information literacy standards, as endorsed by the American Association for Higher Education (1999), the Association of College and Research Libraries (2000), and the Council of Independent Colleges (2004). The students in this course will: determine the nature and extent of the information needed. access needed information effectively and efficiently. evaluate information and its sources critically and incorporates selected information into his or her knowledge base and value system. individually or as a member of a group, use information effectively to accomplish a specific purpose. understand many of the economic, legal, and social issues surrounding the use of information and accesses and uses information ethically and legally. Library resources, such as alternative texts and books that focus on specific mathematical techniques covered, may provide students with additional insights and supplementary material for this course. 5 GRADE DETERMINATION: There are 500 points possible in the course: Problem Sets Team Evaluations (4 x 10) Tests (2 x 100) Final (comprehensive) 160 40 200 100 (90/80/70 scale) (90/80/70 scale) (Scales TBA) (Scale TBA) Grading Scale: Since the Instructor constructs the exams just before each test, it is impossible to fairly assess the difficulty of the exam before it is written (some exams may be more difficult than others depending on the questions the instructor asks). Thus a predefined final grading scale would be inappropriate for the exams in this course. The Instructor will set a scale for each test after it is constructed and will announce it in class when the exams are returned. Students will be able to know immediately their grade on the exam and their overall progress in the course. If at any time the student is unsure of their progress, they are invited to ask the Instructor. Grading Criteria for Assignments and Final Grade: GRADE A B C D F CRITERIA Superior knowledge regarding details, assumptions, implications of Quantitative Analysis; superior thinking with information relevant to application, critique, and relationship to other information. More than adequate knowledge regarding technical terms, distinctions; possesses an ability to use information; demonstrates ability to think clearly about the information and its relationship to other information Basic knowledge needed to function and carry on learning regarding major principles, central terms, major figures; also possesses an awareness of field. Serious gaps in knowledge, confusion of concepts and categories, inability to recall basic information. Absence of knowledge, incapable of carrying on a conversation about the subject, misunderstands most concepts, confuses all categories. COURSE POLICIES: Attendance Policy: Students are expected to attend every class, and attendance will be taken. Students who arrive after class has begun will be counted as absent. Points will be deducted from a student’s final score according to the following schedule: 0 to 2 = 0; 3 or more = 20 points each. Students who are late or absent because of an approved university event must inform the instructor prior to such an event. While students are still responsible for assignments due and material presented on such days, this absence will not be counted against their total. Exams: The tests will be one class period each. The final will be comprehensive, though slightly weighted toward the material from the last part of the course. The tests and the final will consist of a combination of objective/short answer problems, multiple choice problems, Excel spreadsheet design problems and calculation problems. No notes or study aids (including the papers of other students) may be used on the exams. Basic-function calculators are permitted. Programmable or graphing calculators, cellphones, etc. are not permitted on exams. 6 There will be no make-up exams. With prior approval of a valid, documented excuse, the percentage that you receive on the final will be assigned as your score on the missed test. There is no provision for missing more than one test, and you must take the final. In particular, computer hardware or software failures and flight departure times are not valid excuses for late homework or missing class or exams. Back up your work regularly, and do not schedule your flight out of town for a date before the final exam period. Academic Integrity: The mission of Azusa Pacific University includes cultivating in each student not only the academic skills that are required for a university degree, but also the characteristics of academic integrity that are integral to a sound Christian education. It is therefore part of the mission of the university to nurture in each student a sense of moral responsibility consistent with the biblical teachings of honesty and accountability. Furthermore, a breach of academic integrity is viewed not merely as a private matter between the student and an instructor but rather as an act which is fundamentally inconsistent with the purpose and mission of the entire university. A complete copy of the Academic Integrity Policy is available in the Office of Student Life, the Office of the Vice Provost for Undergraduate Programs, and online. Any work throughout the course that appears to have been copied from another source violates the standard of academic integrity. You may not give or receive assistance on exams except from the course professor. You may only work together on homework sets in the manner described above- no copying of work is permitted, either from other groups or from former students. If homework or exam papers do appear to be copied, or other cheating occurs, all students in the group or groups involved will receive zero points for that assignment. Multiple violations will result in all students involved being assigned a grade of “F” for the course. Signing a role sheet for another student is considered forgery and will result in being assigned a grade of “F” for the course. Any other acts of academic dishonesty will be dealt with in a similar manner. In any case of a suspected violation of the standards of academic integrity, the incident will be reported to the Vice Provost’s office and further steps may be taken in accordance with the Academic Integrity Policy of the University. University or Department Policies All university and departmental policies affecting student work, appeals, and grievances, as outlined in the Undergraduate Catalog and/or Department Handbook will apply, unless otherwise indicated in this syllabus. Support Services Students in this course who have a disability that might prevent them from fully demonstrating their abilities should contact an advisor in the Learning Enrichment Center (ext. 3849) as soon as possible to initiate disability verification and discuss accommodations that may be necessary to ensure full participation in the successful completion of course requirements. 7 Quantitative Analysis Team Member Evaluation Form Problem Set # ______________ Your name ________________________ Your Syllabus Number # _________ For each problem set, you must COPY this form, complete it fully and submit it INDIVIDUALLY to my box in the Undergraduate Office of the School of Business (Wilden 203) before the beginning of class on the day the problem set is due. Failure to do so will cause 10 points to be deducted from your course points. Late arrival to class because you were turning this in is NOT excusable. Rank your fellow team members in the following categories (5 for most applicable to 0 for least applicable). HOWEVER, for each question, you may assign each score only once. For example, you may place at most only one “5” in each row. If you duplicate a score in a row, you will lose two points for each time that it happens. Team Member Full Name: Member clearly had read the chapter before attending group meeting Member understands this material better than I do Member failed to contribute to discussion of problems Member participated in solving problems Member did not assist others to understand problems and solutions Member was focused on grades rather than on understanding Member contributed more to the solutions than I did 8 TEAM ASSIGNMENTS 1 Assignment # 1 Group # 1 2 3 4 1 Assignment # 2 Group # 1 7 13 19 5 6 Group # 2 7 8 2 8 Group # 2 14 20 9 10 Group # 3 11 12 3 9 Group # 3 15 17 13 14 Group # 4 15 16 4 10 Group # 4 16 12 17 18 Group # 5 19 20 5 11 Group # 5 6 18 1 Assignment # 3 Group # 1 8 15 18 1 Assignment # 4 Group # 1 7 14 17 2 9 Group # 2 16 19 2 5 Group # 2 8 11 3 10 Group # 3 17 11 3 6 Group # 3 10 18 4 11 Group # 4 5 14 13 15 Group # 4 19 12 6 12 Group # 5 13 20 4 9 Group # 5 16 20 9