Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
TRANSFORMATION AND RESILINECE ON
URBAN COASTS
WORKING PAPER SERIES, WORKING PAPER #1
A megacity’s resistance to transformation: New
York City
Jaydie Ortiz, King’s College London
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
I dedicate this humble work to my partner, Inga Manuela Thiessen.
Gewidmet der Frau, die meine dunkelsten Stunden erhellte, meine Stille mit süssem Gesang
erfüllte und meinen Ängsten liebevolle Worte entgegensetzte. Ohne Dich wäre diese
Errungenschaft nicht möglich gewesen. Danke für die Kraft und Stärke, mit der Du das, was
ich war, herausgefordert hast, so dass ich das, was ich bin, verwirklichen konnte.
Ninakupenda Mpenzi wangu, Inga wangu.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This project would not have been possible without the contributions of disaster risk
managers in New York City. I have had the honor of serving the city of New York alongside
a group of professionals whose work and dedication is incredible, but often goes
unrecognized.
Thank you to Mark Pelling for providing guidance and support, which proved
instrumental to this project's development. A special thank you goes to my King’s College
London Geography 2014-2015 cohort, a group who provided much needed inspiration and
comedic relief during my studies. I also express my sincere gratitude to my friends and
family. They sent me across the pond with unlimited amounts of encouragement and support
– your faith in me made this a reality. I am humbled by your love and generosity.
Finally, I recognize all of those who came before me, who are no longer with us. Their
sacrifices have made the improbable possible, I truly stand on the shoulders of giants Maferefun Eggun.
.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
ABSTRACT
This study aims to evaluate resistance towards transformative disaster risk management
(DRM) in megacities. Using the New York City (NYC) Irene and Sandy experiences as a case
study, the research explores how the unique characteristics of megacities influence and or
create resistance towards transformative DRM. The paper begins to address a gap in disaster
research: the exploration of megacity disaster governance, and will build upon existing
research on megacities and their pathways towards adaptation (Pelling 2011; Rosenzweig &
Solecki 2014; Tierney 2012; Uitto 1998). In light of the looming impacts of climate change
and our inability to secure the minimum 2C degree warming targeted by the scientific
community (Park et al 2011), the study proposes the lessons learned in the NYC present a
valuable knowledge sharing opportunity beneficial to all megacities. The knowledge shared
serves to facilitate the achievement of transformative DRM in megacity across the globe.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
CONTENTS
List of Figures………………………………………………..………………………..…………..……7
List of Abbreviations………………………………………………………………………………......8
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….....9
Chapter 1: Literature Review……………………………..……………………………………..…..11
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Governance, Disaster Governance & DRM……………………………………………….……...11
Adaptation: Incremental & Transformative Adaptation in DRM……………………….………..12
Megacities……………………………………………………………………………….………..13
Megacities and Adaptation: Exercises in resistance………………………………………….…..18
Knowledge sharing: How the Experiences in One Megacity Provide Knowledge for All……….21
Study Rationale: Gaps in Research……………………………………………………………….22
Chapter 2: Methodology, Data Collection & Ethics………………………………………..………23
2.1 Aims, Objectives & Research Questions…………………………………………………………..23
2.2 Methodology & Data Collection…………………………………………………………………...23
2.3 Sampling: Selection and Access to Participants…………………………………………………...24
2.4 Challenges, Limitations & Ethics………………………………………………………………….25
2.5 Researcher: Identity, Positionality & Bias………………………………………………………....26
2.6 Data Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………26
Chapter 3: Contextualizing New York City – A Megacity Model.
3.1 NYC: Among the First Megacities………………………………………………………………...28
3.2 New York’s Hazardous Geography & Complex Demographics………………………………......28
3.3 Governance & DRM: History of Being ‘NY Tough’……………………………………………...30
3.4 The Rockaways: Marginalization and Vulnerability………………………………………………33
3.5 Irene vs Sandy – Coastal Storms…………………………………………………………...……...34
Chapter 4: Findings………………………………………………………………………………..…38
4.1 Irene & Sandy Exposed People Centric Gaps in Coastal Storm Planning………………………...38
4.2 NYC’s Megacities Characteristics Fuel Resistance Towards Transformative DRM……………...45
4.3 Current & Future Policy Implications…………………………………………………………......53
Chapter 5: Conclusion - Closing Thoughts & Future Considerations for Research …………….55
Appendices
Appendix A: ………………………………………………………………………………………….58
Geography Ethics Screening From……………………………………………………………59
Risk Assessment Forms……………………………………………………………………….60
College Ethical Approval Letter………………………………………………………….…...70
Appendix B:…………………………………………………………………………..………………..71
Respondent Coding Reference Table
Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………...…...72
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1
Percentage of the population residing in urban areas ………………………...…….15
Figure 2
Percentage urban and urban agglomerations by size Class………………………….16
Figure 3
Characteristics of Megacities & Influence on Resistance……………………………19
Figure 4
Map of New York City……………………………………………………………….29
Figure 5
Map of the New York Bight………………………………………………………….29
Figure 6
New York City Organizational chart…………………………………………………32
Figure 7
Map of the Rockaways……………………………………………………………..33
Figure 8
Satellite Image of Hurricane Irene………………………………………………….35
Figure 9
Satellite Image of Hurricane Sandy…………………………………………………..36
Figure 10
Before and after aerial photos of the Rockaways…………………………………….37
Figure 11
NYC Flood Zones…………………………………………………………………….40
Figure 12
Hurricane Sandy Inundation Zones……………………………………..………….43
Figure 13
Promenade Rehabilitation & Health Care Center in the Rockaways Irene…………44
Figure 14
Promenade Rehabilitation & Health Care Center in the Rockaways Sandy…………44
Figure 15
NYC Resistance Factor 1: Tension between State & City…………………………...46
Figure 16
NYC Resistance Factor 2: Scarcity of Resources……………………………………48
Figure 17
NYC Resistance Factor 3: Physical Disconnection from Natural Environment……..49
Figure 18
NYC Resistance Factor 4: Complex Governance……………………………………51
Figure 19
NYC Resistance Factor 5: Reliance on Technocratic Solutions……………………..52
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CCA
Climate Change Adaptation
CSP
Coastal Storm Plan
DRM
Disaster Risk Management
ESS
Emergency Supply Stockpile
FEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency
GIS
Geographic Information Systems
LSSP
Logistics Shelter Support Plan
NGO
Non-Governmental Organization
NPCC
New York City Panel on Climate Change
NY
New York
NYC
New York City
OEM
Office of Emergency Management
SMNS
Special Medical Needs Shelter
UN
United Nations
US
United States
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
INTRODUCTION
August 27, 2015 marked the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that
annihilated New Orleans and claimed the lives of over 1,800 people (Frailing et al. 2015).
The storm brought embarrassment to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, as
images of survivors trapped in poorly designed and inadequate emergency shelters without
adequate food, sanitation or water (Monteith 2010) made their way across international media
outlets. The event served as a turning point in US emergency management and brought
attention to the risks and future impacts of climate change as well as the need to develop
DRM (Miller 2012).
Recent reviews of scientific articles published on climate changed revealed over 97% of
scientists agree we have entered a period of climatic change (Cook 2013). Reports from
institutions like the Pentagon have identified climatic change as a major threat to global
security as a driver of political instability (Davenport 2014). The earth is now in period of
anthropogenic climatic change and will see a rise in temperatures, sea levels, and frequency in
extreme weather events with significant impacts on food production, rate of human
displacement, and irreversible damage to ecological systems (IPCC 2014; Van Aalst 2006).
Recent events in Philippines, New York and Bangladesh lend credibility to the claim that we
are already experiencing the ill effects of a phenomenon our modern history has yet to
contend with (Trenberth et al. 2015).
Despite their rising population density and increased exposure to disasters, megacities
have not benefited from the vast disaster research conducted to develop strategies providing
long-lasting solutions to the multi-layered and multi-dimensional set of vulnerabilities
megacities face (Blaikie et al. 2014; Watts & Bohle 1993); vulnerabilities that exist
throughout the disaster cycle. Exposing failures in the governance of society, theses
vulnerabilities impede recovery and the ability to build resilient livelihoods for those affected
by an event (Blaikie et al 2014).
Within a two-year period, the coastal megacity of New York (NYC) prepared for and
responded to the landfall of two major coastal storms: Hurricanes Irene and Sandy. The city
emerged from Irene virtually unscathed, as the storm rotated away from the city and instead,
inflicted damage to areas north (FEMA 2015). Approximately a year later, Hurricane Sandy
made landfall causing citywide damage totaling over $42 billion (Blake et al. 2013). The
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
worst hit areas, communities along its sprawling coastlines, were ill-prepared for the storm
surge that washed away the lives they once knew. The Rockaway Peninsula, an area of NYC
most exposed to coastal storms and flooding, was devastated.
While much attention is given to the hazardous regions of the global South, areas that by
most statistics currently endure and will experience the most severe consequences of climate
change (IPCC 2014), megacities of the North can also provide valuable case studies of how
megacity governance structures enact adaptations to climate change (Rosenzweig & Solecki
2014). Megacities, regardless of their North or South locales, share distinct characteristics
influencing their governance processes (Kubler 2012; Krass 2007), and their ability to adapt
policy and practices in response to climate change. A thoughtful analysis of how these
characteristics influence adaptation will provide insight into DRM adaptation within the
megacity context.
The aim of this study is to explore how NYC adapted its disaster risk management
(DRM) policy and plans after having experienced two major coastal storms within a two-year
period.
The paper will also consider how NYC’s adaptation process provides valuable
knowledge, applicable and actionable to megacities across the globe. With a focus on the
Rockaway Peninsula, colloquially known as the Rockaways, this study will examine how
decision makers in government responded to lessons learned and how those opportunities for
improvement were translated into the city's DRM strategy as it continues to cope with
increasing hazards due to climate change (Neumann et al. 2015; O’Brien et al. 2006). Factors
of resistance will be identified and unpacked for the larger megacity context.
Chapter 1 provides a summary examination of the literature available on megacities, their
governance and larger DRM policy. Chapter 2 presents the research questions the study
intends to explore as well as the projects methodology. Chapter 3 contextualizes the research
area, detailing its relevance as a study area to the global DRM community. In chapter 4, the
findings and an analysis of the data are presented. Lastly, the study concludes with closing
thoughts and future considerations for researchers on the subject of megacities and DRM
adaptation.
Jaydie Ortiz
CHAPTER 1
K1454060
LITERATURE REVIEW
This section reviews the importance of megacities as regions in need of adaptive disaster
risk management (DRM) strategies as they face the impacts of climate change. Key concepts
such as incremental and transformative adaption, governance, disaster governance and
resistance to adaptation are covered. Focusing on megacities and identifying shared
characteristics influencing governance processes, this section will summarize current
literature on megacity governance and explore how megacity characteristics create resistance
in the pathways towards adaptation.
1.1 Governance, Disaster Governance & DRM
The subject of governance enjoys a wide body of academic literature (Birkmann et al.
2010), yet is a term that remains loosely defined in disaster research (Tierney 2012).
Governance is commonly understood as the actions and policies implemented by state actors
with the intention to benefit the public (Parker and Braithwaite 2003). Yet a broader and more
applicable definition of governance encompasses the systems and methods by which power
and decision making are shared (Lebel 2006). As global DRM efforts have taken on a more
developmentally focused approach, shifting focus from natural events to the intersection of
pre-existing human vulnerabilities and the shock imposed by an event (Quarantelli 1998), this
definition of governance is markedly distinct from the previously held definition of political
authority and state control (Freeman 1997). It aligns the concept of governance with a more
socially focused expression, and thus making it more applicable to the people-centric tilt of
DRM centered.
Governance is an action (Kooiman 2003) and its performance is the result of a wide
variety of actors and decision makers converging to influence and or create public policy
(ibid). These actors are comprised of government institutions and administrators, nongovernmental organizations (NGO’s), elements of the private sector, and civically oriented
organizations, all involved in carrying out functions that were once the domain of the state
(Agranoff & McGuire 2003). There is bourgeoning interest in the exploration of governance
as an example of social coordination (Folke et al. 2005) as outcomes of governance processes
have a profound effect on the larger society.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Subsumed under the broad umbrella of governance, and more specifically risk
governance (Tierney 2012), is disaster governance. Disaster governance focuses on the
overarching policies, legal and regulatory systems affecting DRM efforts (Blanco 2015). The
United Nations (UN) defines it as the manner by which disasters and climate change related
risks are managed (UNDP 2013). At its core, it is a form of collaborative governance, where
public policy development and decision making proactively engages various levels of
government, public and private sectors, sharing decision making and power (Emerson et al.
2012). It is highly influenced by the actors, their agendas, and the overall political climate.
There is extensive literature outside of the disasters domain exploring governance and its
capacity for adaptation. Categorized into three groups: adaptive management, cooperative
management and collaborative governance (Djalante et al. 2011) the concepts grew out of
social-ecological systems work (Holling 1978). The evolution of these management theories
coalesced into adaptive governance and featured the work of divergent fields such as political
science, environmental management, eco-systems management (Folke et al. 2005). Adaptive
governance features polycentric, flexible, mutable, and multilevel, multi-layered institutional,
collaborative and innovative processes which were both centralized and decentralized in
command (Folke et al .2005; Olsoon et al. 2004; Plummer 2009). This vast research
underscores the complexities involved in governance and justifies further research from the
DRM perspective.
1.2 Adaptation: Incremental & Transformative Adaptation in DRM
In the disasters field, it is difficult to discuss adaptation outside of the context of climate
change adaptation (CCA). Though CCA and DRM have evolved as separate disciplines
(Wamsler et al. 2013), they have experienced a recent convergence as research increasingly
links the two with the primary functions of DRM: risk reduction, response and recovery
(Coppola 2011). In this context, adaptation is aimed at enacting changes that address and
reduce risk and vulnerability, increasing the resiliency of urban populations to hazards
(Solecki et al. 2011). Adaptation is inextricably linked to resiliency, the ability of systems and
people to bounce back after a disaster, better positioned than before (Maguire & Hagan 2007).
A term ubiquitous in DRM (Pelling 2011), adaptation can both augment resiliency as well as
work against it (ibid). As theory and frame work, adaptation’s epistemistic origins are varied
and stem from social environment systems, political science, and organizational behavior
(Djalante et al. 2011).
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Adaptation falls into two groups in disasters research: incremental and transformative
(Kates et al. 2012; Matyas & Pelling 2015). Focusing on the improvement of existing policies
and initiatives proven to reduce risk (Kates et al 2012), incremental adaptation seeks to make
changes in controlled, measured steps, building upon previous DRM successes. Ultimately,
the resulting adaptation keeps intact fundamental systems and processes (Handmer & Dovers
1996). CCA is especially vulnerable to incremental approaches, as it requires decision makers
to act on uncertainties (Polasky et al. 2011).
Transformative DRM strategies emerged in the late 2000’s (Matyas & Pelling 2015). A
response to incremental adaptation, transformational approaches targeted the root causes of
hazard vulnerabilities and thus, emphasized more radical system changes (Pelling 2011).
Transformative strategies often target ingrained power structures, with the aim of altering, and
in some cases upending, systems identified as the root causes of human vulnerability (Pelling
2011). Many experts in DRM argue that transformative adaptation becomes vital as disaster
risks increase due to climate change. These heightened risk demand dramatic shifts in
structures to achieve meaningful reduction and mitigation (Kates et al. 2012). Due to its call
for radical systems change, established governance structures are particularly resistance to
transformative adaptation (Howes et al. 2015) and focus on incremental adaptation which
optimizes existing strategies (Kates et al. 2012). The root societal and political causes of risk
and vulnerability have been labeled too large in scope, and even unachievable to fit into
adaptation work commonly found in DRM (Adger et al. 2009) and this view has also
contributed to the preference for incremental approaches
1.3 Megacities
The UN defines megacities as metropolitan regions with a total population of 10 million
or more (UNDESA 2008). Understood as urban areas with clearly identified boundaries,
megacities are best conceptualized as loosely drawn metropolitan areas where a concentration
of socio-economic activities are found (Kübler 2012). While megacities are a recent human
phenomenon, the factors leading to their development are not. The antecedents of the modern
day megacity trace back to the ancient cities of Rome, Mesopotamia and Chang’an. These
ancient cities grew out of concentrations of commerce and power, much like the megacity of
today whose growth, initially fueled by industrialization in the 1800’s, is driven by
globalization (Mitchell 1995). As ancient loci of commerce, civilization, art, science and
politics, these cities were the foundation of many of the globes empires. The megacity of
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
modernity enjoys the similar global stature, but instead of driving the creation of new nationstates (Brenner 2004), they are driving regional cohesion and governance (ibid).
Since their initial classification in the 1950’s, megacities have emerged as DRM areas of
concern as the globe continues to experience rising urbanization driven by globalization
(Mitchell 1995). As of 2014, 28 megacities were found across the globe with a combined
population of 453 million people (UNDESA 2014). At the rate of current growth, it is
predicted the world will see at least 41 megacities by 2030 (ibid). These megacities combined
will be home to 730 million people and will represent about 14% of world's urban population
(UNDESA 2014). Today, over 418 million people, or 12% of the global population, reside in
megacities (ibid).
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
1950
2014
2050
Fig. 1: Percentage of the population residing in urban areas 1950, 2014 &
2050 (UNDESA 2014)
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Of the 28 megacities found today, 16 are located in coastal regions and are threatened by
rising sea levels in addition to the risks posed by climate change (IPCC 2014; Pelling &
Blackburn 2014). The UN reported in 2014 54% of the global population reside in cities, a
number projected to increase to over 66% by 2050 (UNDESA 2014). This prediction
underscores the importance of establishing meaningful and effective DRM strategies specific
to megacities. Research on urbanization in the global South buttresses this recognition and as
early as 1990 urban growth was listed as a major contributor to disaster risk during the 1990
UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reductions (UNISDR 2015).
Fig. 2: Percentage urban & urban agglomerations by size class (UNDESA 2014)
While globalization has fueled the growth of modern megacities, it has also extended the
reach of a disasters impact (Krass 2007). While the world has seen an overall decline in the
loss of life due to disasters (El-Masri & Tipple 2002), the aftermath of disasters visited upon
megacities often reverberate across borders adversely affecting financial markets and critical
supply chains (Uitto 1998). Further research on megacity DRM will ensure that the progress
realized by DRM efforts are maintained as disaster adversely affecting a megacity has the
potential to disrupt the economic, societal and political wellbeing of its surrounding region.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
The majority of megacities are located in the global South and much of the population
growth projected for megacities is expected to take place in the urban regions of India, China
and throughout continental Africa (UNDESA 2014), regions which are today already
experiencing the adverse effects of climate change (IPCC 2014). Despite the vast social,
economic and political differences between cities in the global North and South, all
megacities share sets of characteristics due to their composition and position as major centers
of culture, politics and as transnational centers of economic activity (Kötter & Friesecke
2009). It is customary to find thought leaders and critical decision makers, in both the public
and private sectors, residing and working in megacities as they often weld enormous influence
on both economics and politics (Wenzel et al 2005).
Shared characteristics found in megacities:
1. All megacities are centers of global significance: Megacities both affect and
are affected by global economics, societal, and political trends (Birkmann 2010;
Kraas 2007). The policies and processes found in a megacity often stretch far
beyond their geographic boundaries (ibid). This characteristic leads to a growth
of megacity power/autonomy in relation to its national government: As centers
of economic, political and social activity, megacities often enjoy enhanced
autonomy from their larger governmental structures (Brenner 2002; Brenner
2004).
2. Organizationally complex governance structures: Megacities all possess
highly complex governance structures comprised of government, private and
civic actors. The interactions between these groups, which are often in
competition with one another, is dynamic and intricate (Kötter & Frisecke
2009). Megacities also feature an interdependence of administrative, financial,
economic, social, political, etc., (Olorunfemi 2009) and any change to a one will
have an impact on the other.
3. High competition for resources: Due to enormous population growth found in
megacities and the resulting increased resource consumption (UNDESA 2014;
IPCC 2014), megacities suffer from a persistent lack of resources leading to
severe competition. The lack of DRM funding is reflects this fact, as budgets for
DRM are often inadequate as other government functions are prioritized in light
of funding shortfalls (Tsikoudakis 2012).
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
4. Disconnected from natural environment and hazards: Megacities, due to
their construction and development, feature structures that remove their
inhabitants from the natural world. The result is a population that ranks natural
hazards as low priorities and often underestimates their vulnerability to natural
hazards (Mitchell 1999).
5. Reliance on technology and technocratic solutions: Cities, and by extension,
megacities, display a reliance on technocratic solutions (Lavell & Maskrey
2014). Partly tied to the need to justify investments due to limited resources,
policy makers favor initiatives with quantifiable returns on investments.
The above is not an exhaustive list of megacity characteristics and serves as an example
of characteristics that lead to shared experiences in the megacity context. It provides a helpful
starting point from which to approach megacity DRM, both in the global North and South.
1.4 Megacities & Adaptation: Exercises in Resistance
Megacities’ resistance to transformational DRM adaptive strategies and preference for
incremental adaptation are commonplace in megacity DRM, as their complexity in structure,
on all scales, makes transformative DRM approaches difficult. Even when there is significant
political will behind a policy initiative, megacities often are slow to react due to uncertainties
about the impacts of climate change and gains to be realized from adaptation (Hallegate
2009). Transformational adaptation, often targeted at root-causes, presents decision makers
with costs that are often times unquantifiable; such as the potential for disruption of long
established methods of governance. Lastly, the dynamic nature of these complex urban
environments creates a constantly changing state of ‘normal’ operations, often making hardwon progress on transformative DRM strategies obsolete by the time they are enacted
(Tierney 2012).
Part of this resistance can be attributed to the unique set of characteristics found in
megacities, characteristics, exemplified by those identified above, which influence disaster
governance processes. Figure 3 illustrates how megacity characteristics exercise an adverse
influence on disaster governance.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
F
Excluding population size, the next most defining characteristic of megacities is
their role in global processes. Yet, despite their transnational prominence, they are still
subject to the larger governing authority, authorities which exercise control and
regulations outside of the megacity jurisdiction (Kubler 2014). This dynamic often
leads to power struggles, which adversely effects disaster governance processes,
processes reliant on collaboration and negotiation (Pelling 2011). While megacities
can still enact CCA initiatives, they are limited by their status as cities, accountable to
governing authorities.
In sustainability and ecology research, megacities are identified as major
contributors to climate change and environmental degradation (McArdle 2014). Not
only do megacities consume vast quantities of resources, but by their very construction
they alter their natural environments, resulting in an artificial sense of command and
ig.
3:
Ch
ara
cte
rist
ics
of
Me
ga
citi
es
&
Inf
lue
nc
e
on
Re
sis
tan
ce
(A
uth
ors
ill
ust
rati
on
der
ive
d
fro
m
cit
ed
so
urc
es)
Jaydie Ortiz
control of natural processes (ibid).
K1454060
The result is a city that is disconnected from the
environment and the hazards and vulnerabilities presented by their geographic locations
(Mitchel 1999). This disconnection leads to a misunderstanding of the risks faced by the city.
While megacities are fueled by economic growth, they are not resource rich. Because of
their physical expansion (Mitchell 1999) and exponential population growth, megacities often
lack sufficient resources to address the divergent and demanding needs of their populations.
Even in the global North, you will find megacities operating with budget deficits and
struggling to meet its obligations to the public (Tsikoudakis 2012).
Megacities are often display largely fragmented governance structures with functions
clearly divided along core capabilities. These divisions, and the competition for resources
dedicated to each core competency, often put administrators, policy makers and other
stakeholders in opposition with one another (Tierney 2012). These competing interest and
agendas have a negative effect on the participatory governance interaction reliant on trust and
openness (Wise et al. 2014).
While not exclusive to megacities, DRM strategies reliant on technocratic objectives are
preferred in these large urban areas (Heazel et al. 2013). CCA is one of the paramount areas
of research in DRM (Wise et al. 2014) and it presents megacities with uncertainties the
technocratic approaches simply cannot contend with. The building of sea walls and hardening
of infrastructure defenses are typical forms of technocratic-based solutions requiring little
change to status quo systems (Kates et al. 2012) and present less uncertainty than initiatives
tackling root causes.
DRM today is clear on what causes a disaster: Disasters are a function of vulnerability
and hazards (Blaike et al 2014). The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction defines
vulnerability as ‘The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental
factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of
hazards.’ (UNISDR 2015, pp. 10) Yet, it is also clear that despite this acknowledgment of
what constitutes a disaster, the attempts to address root causes have been modest at best
(Kates et al. 2012; Park et al. 2011; Wise et al. 2014). By identifying large-scale factors of
resistance in megacities, those engaged in disaster governance can target their efforts at
mitigating the influence and ultimate consequence of these factors and begin to enact the
drastic change necessitated by climate change (Park et al. 2011).
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
1.5 Knowledge Sharing: How Experiences in One Megacity Provides Knowledge For All
Despite their contributions to the destruction of ecological sustainability, megacities are
also centers of experimentation and technological innovation in the quest to find solutions to
challenges posed by climate change (McArdle 2014 ; Solecki et al. 2011). Collaborative
organizations, such as C40 Cities, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives,
and the Worlds Mayors Council on Climate Change Cities (McArdle 2014), comprised of
several megacities and emerging megacities, have taken a forward leaning stance on the issue.
Many cities, such as NYC have gone further than their national governments in not only
acknowledging the threats posed by climate change but in also developing solutions and
promoting innovation (Solecki et al. 2011). In 2008, NYC convened the New York City
Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), and since then, has taken a lead role towards CCA. After
his 3-term tenure as mayor, Michael Bloomberg was named Special Envoy for Cities and
Climate Change by Banki Moon, the Secretary General of the UN (McArdle 2014).
These international panels, coalitions and working groups serve as spaces of information
exchange where the failures or successes of initiatives, and supporting data are shared
amongst members. Policies, expertise, data, and resources are shared alleviating the need for
members to experiment with CCA on their own and shortening the timeline of CCA
adaptation (McArdle 2014).
1.6 Study Rationale: Gaps in Research
Current literature exploring how DRM is applied in megacities is not readily available,
though there are several works acknowledging and attempting to fill the gap (Solecki et al.
2011; Tierney 2012, Uitto 1998). Given the prediction that much of the population growth
the world will experience will result in an increase in the number of megacities (UNDESA
2014), as well as increase the size of existing ones, this study places attention on a coastal
megacity, NYC.
This paper will explore how the shared characteristics of megacities
influence disaster governance in NYC context and will propose further analysis will provide
useful starting points to explore the causes of resistance in megacities. The challenges faced
by massive systems found only in megacities are obstacles communally shared, despite their
South or North geographical location.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
In exploring how NYC responds to increasing demands for CCA, this study focuses on a
city with access to abundance of resources (when compared to the megacities of the global
South), political will in support of adaptation and increased public interest given recent
coastal storm events. It recognizes NYC as a mature global North megacity, whose
significance stretches far beyond its national borders. Yet, despite these favorable conditions,
NYC struggles to make significant strides in its adaptation strategies, begging the question
whether there are unexplored factors influencing resistance to transformative strategies. Using
the Rockaways as a case study, this paper will consider the capacity of NYC to enact CCA
DRM strategies by analyzing how its megacity characteristics function on its resistance
towards adaptation. The research aims to address the gap in current disaster studies and will
propose further research on megacities will serve to help achieve the DRM goals outlined in
the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction.
Jaydie Ortiz
CHAPTER 2
K1454060
METHODOLOGY
This section will present the study’s research methodology, research questions, and data
gathering details. It will provide an analysis of the data obtained as well as clearly identify
bias and challenges.
2.1 Aims, Objectives & Research Questions
The purpose of this study is to evaluate how a coastal megacity, NYC, experiences
resistance to transformational adaptation and how resistance is affected by megacity
characteristics influencing governance processes. The study aims to identify relationships
between megacity characteristics and expressions of resistance in disaster governance.
The research employed primary and secondary data sets and presented a retrospective
analysis of the actions taken by those involved in the DRM decision and policymaking
process in NYC during and after Hurricane Irene and Sandy.
This paper will explore and consider the following questions:
1. What are factors influencing resistance in disaster governance to
transformative adaptation in NYC, a coastal megacity?
2. How do the shared characteristics of megacities create and influence
factors of resistance to CCA in NYC?
3. Can the lessons of a megacity located in the global North create
opportunities for learning to those in the South?
2.2 Methodology & Data Collection
Much of the research conducted in social science employs qualitative research methods
and they have seemingly become the default research methodology implemented (Clearly et
al. 2014). This is not a surprising as qualitative methods lend themselves to the complexities
involved in attempting to unpack the dynamic nature of the human condition. While the study
drew on quantitative data, such as demographical statistics, a qualitative approach was taken
in this project, as it was the most adequate method to gather and analyze data relevant to the
research questions. Information about the views and experiences of the respondents was
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
gathered (Mullings 1999) and an in-depth qualitative analysis was conducted with ‘emphasis
on explaining the processes, changing conditions, organization, circumstance and
construction, negotiation and reconstruction of meanings and identities.’(Cloke et al. 2004,
p.150).
Data was collected during the periods of August 10 through August 31 of 2015 and
consisted of 7 semi-structured interviews. Interviews were conducted via telephone with the
respondents physically located in the NYC metropolitan area. The use of telephone interviews
allowed the respondents more flexibility and increased the willingness of those selected to
participate. This form of interview also increased the level of confidentially, as respondents
were free to select their physical locations. Confidentiality was of utmost importance as the
details of emergency planning process are often classified confidential by government
officials due to the public safety and security elements involved.
The semi-structured interviews were conducted with a set of guide questions intended to
provide uniformity in the data gathered. Opened-ended questions were utilized, with factbased and neutral questions posed at the beginning to develop confidence and comfort in the
interview process before more probing questions were asked (Longhurst 2003). This method
of interview allowed the researcher to gain insight into the experience of the respondents,
insights that were critical to the qualitative nature of research questions (Silverman 1993).
The open format provided opportunities for respondents to offer information not initially
considered by the researcher when developing questions. It allowed the interviews to flow
freely and provided an “openness” that a structured interviewed would have impeded (Baxter
& Eyles 1997). The interviews were audio recorded as it allowed the researcher more freedom
to engage naturally in the interview process as well maintain accurate versions of responses
(Cloke et al. 2004).
2.3 Sampling: Selection & Access to Participants
Respondents were selected based on their participation in emergency planning,
specifically coastal storm planning, within the NYC government DRM structure.
Respondents were employed with the city before, during or after Irene and Sandy. The
researcher, in her prior employment with the NYC Office of Emergency Management (OEM),
had direct access through professional networks.
The sampling was intended to select
respondents who would be best suited to provide data that would satisfy the objectives of the
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
research topic (Longhurst 2003; Tongco 2007). Representatives from a wide variety of city
agencies were selected as to incorporate various perspectives. Respondents varied in their
decision-making capacity and all were professionals within the DRM and experienced in the
planning/response process. Participation was voluntary and respondents were afforded an
option to withdraw their responses up to one week after the interview was conducted.
2.4 Challenges, Limitations & Ethics
DRM is a public safety function NYC and it is constrained by the confidentiality often
imposed by the larger government security structure. As a result, the researcher was required
to ensure the confidentiality of the respondents and was bound by her own obligation as a
former public servant to comply with the confidentiality clauses of her previous employment
with OEM. As a result, the plans mentioned in this research are not eligible for inclusion and
specific details have been excluded. The information provided by the respondents are not
official views or positions of the City of New York.
The act of data collection is an exclusionary process, and it must be assumed that the data
collected is a window through which we peer into a large landscape – our view will be limited
by the size of the window itself (Blastland 2008). This paper recognizes the views obtained
represent a fraction of the experiences of those involved in NYC DRM. DRM in NYC is
complex and its scope is multi-hazard thus a full review would not be possible given the
limits of this project. This paper focuses on one aspect of the city’s DRM strategy, the Coastal
Storm Plan (CSP).
This study, qualitative in nature and reliant on interview based research, was limited by
the ability of participants to recall events, information and their experiences in NYC DRM.
The selection of the respondents was determined by their positions within the NYC DRM
field and the researcher recognizes that this selection, while intended to provide insight into
the planning process by those responsible for it from various perspectives, also provides a
very specific context in which the data can be applied.
Before research and data collection was initiated, the researcher obtained the necessary
approvals and permissions from Kings College London. The Geography and Social Science
and Research Ethics Panel granted project approval. A risk assessment was conducted and it
was determined this project was low risk.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
2.5 Researcher: Identity, Positionality & Bias
The researcher was employed by OEM from July 2011 through September 2014, a period
encompassing the Irene and Sandy experiences, a focal point of this study. Through this
employment, the researcher was familiar with the CSP, having participated in planning
committees, such as the CSP board. The researcher also authored the city’s Logistics Shelter
Support Program (LSSP) plan and was responsible for the management of the Emergency
Supply Stockpile (ESS), the city’s cache of mass care emergency supplies. Both the CSP and
ESS are mentioned in this research. The researcher had both directly and indirectly worked
with the participants chosen for interviews and her relationship with the respondents likely
increased their comfortability throughout the interview process.
Researcher positionality and bias is a major factor of consideration when evaluating the
results and future implications of a study (Cloke et al. 2004). While most social science
research is conducted to explore how humans relate to their environments, with the aim of
improving the overall human condition, researchers must remain vigilant of how positionality
and bias often express themselves in the analysis and interpretation of results (ibid). The
objective of the study was to examine overarching factors of resistance in the adaptation
process. The analysis of the data required the researcher to be reflexive (Cloke et al. 2004)
throughout the interpretation of the respondent data. The researcher, cognizant of how her
personal experiences would influence the interpretation of the data, aimed to be as objective
as possible and made all attempts to approach to data from a position of neutrality. Given her
relationship with the respondents, the researcher also took care not to pose questions that
would infringe upon the aforementioned confidentially requirements. The researcher also
factored the bias and positionality of the respondents in the data analysis (Cloke et al. 2004).
2.6 Data Analysis
Interviews with respondents were transcribed and anonymized after the window of data
collection closed. The study relied upon secondary source data, gathered from government
agencies such as the NYC Department of Planning, FEMA and the US Census bureau. As
with any data, care must be taken in understanding its sources (Blastland 2008) and the
researcher took care to utilize data from reputable sources. The aim of this study is explore
the research questions presented, as definitive answers cannot be obtained in such a limited
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
piece of research. The respondent’s answers were analyzed and grouped into like responses
for interpretation.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
CHAPTER 3
CONTEXTUALIZING NYC – A MEGACITY MODEL
In this chapter, we will explore the study’s geographical area, NYC, and its relevance to
the disasters field as a whole. Analyzing its geography, demographics, history, government
structure as well as recent coastal storms experiences, this section will contextualize NYC’s
significance in larger DRM research as a megacity model.
3.1 NYC: Among the First Megacities
NYC is the focal point of the New York-Newark metropolitan area. The city center
currently holds over 8.49 million inhabitants (US Census Bureau 2014) and the larger
metropolitan region is home to over 23 million residents (ibid) across 3 US states and 33
counties (Solecki 2015). In 1950, NYC was classified as one of the world’s first megacities
(Tertius 1987) and while it has not experienced the population growth of its sister cities in the
global South (UNDESA 2014), it is the largest city in the US. It is a mature and global city
and the base of international finance and politics.
3.2 New York’s Hazardous Geography & Complex Demographics
NYC’s geography features coastlines measuring over 520 miles, as it sits where East
River, Hudson River and Atlantic Ocean converge.
It is especially vulnerable to the
prediction of global sea level rise and increasing extreme weather events, such as coastal
storms (Lin et al. 2010). It is vulnerable to costal storms and faces a risk of substantial
flooding as the NY Bight adds another hazardous layer to its geography (Silverman 2012).
The NY Bight is near a right angle bend at the mouth of the Hudson River where the NYC
and New Jersey coastlines meet. The bight makes NYC especially vulnerable to coastal
storms, such as hurricanes, despite its position north on the Atlantic seaboard.
Any
approaching storm surge would be funneled in, with no outlet, severely flooding the city
(ibid).
Jaydie Ortiz
Fig. 4: New York City (NYC DCP 2015)
K1454060
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Fig. 5: New York Bight, (NYC OEM 2015)
NYC’s severely altered landscape adds another layer of vulnerability to coastal storms.
Its mass transit system, energy supply and water distribution systems are all subterranean
systems (Wagner et al. 2014) featuring infrastructure constructed over a century ago. Its
famous skyline, featuring 100+ story skyscrapers makes the city vulnerable to the winds
accompanying coastal storms. Many of its critical facilities are located along its coastline;
nursing homes, power plants, wastewater treatment plants, the New York Stock Exchange and
the UN Headquarters are all located along its rivers (Silverman 2012).
As in any megacity, every measurable marker of diversity exists in NYC. In its 8.49
million inhabitants, the full spectrum of political, economic, ethnic, racial, educational,
religious, diversity are well represented (NYC DCP 2015; US Census 2015). Given its long
history as a center of trade, NYC is home to many immigrants: 36% of its population are
foreign born (ibid). Today, there are ethnic communities found throughout the city from every
country on earth. Over 800 languages are spoken in NYC (Roberts 2010).
While it is home to a large numbers of the wealthy, like many megacities NYC is plagued
by income inequality, unequal access to quality education, government services and features a
highly segregated community landscape (Ellen et al. 2002; Kawachi & Subramanian 2014).
In 2010, NYC was home to the poorest congressional district in the US, NY-16 where 38% of
households were below the poverty line (US CENSUS 2015). Today, the city continues to
battle income inequality and the current administration has named it one of its most pressing
issues (NYC DCP 2015).
NYC is one of the most exposed coastal megacities given its miles coastlines,
subterranean infrastructure, unique geographical location and varying social demographics. It
has recently experienced two major Hurricanes in a two-year period: Hurricane Irene in 2011
and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The science on climate change adds further cause for a study
of a coastal megacity, as the frequency and duration of weather extremes, such as coastal
storms, are predicted to increase (Field & IPCC 2012).
3.3 Governance & DRM: History of Being ‘NY Tough’
NYC’s complex demographics and long history are reflected in its governing structure
today. It is under the jurisdiction NY State and borders hundreds of municipalities (Solecki
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
2015). It features a mayor-council form of government and elects a new mayor every 4 years
who shares power with 51 council members (ibid). The 5 boroughs NYC is comprised of are
divided into 59 community districts, which is the smallest and most local form of government
in NYC. The city’s government functions are divided among 50 agencies each empowered
with specific operational and administrative missions.
There is extensive literature analyzing the intensely fragmented nature of NYC
government with perhaps the most illustrative of all titles being ‘1400 governments of New
York’ (Wood 1961). Figure 6 is the organization structure of the various city agencies, all of
which have a role in the city’s DRM. The city’s disaster governance functions are not limited
to government agencies and feature a wide variety of stakeholders from the private and public
sectors. As a center of international politics and commerce, the city is home to an untold
number of NGO’s, think-tanks, and active civic groups advocating on countless issues.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Fig. 6: New York City Organizational Chart (NYC 2015)
DRM has a long history in NYC, with the origins of a centralized emergency department
reaching back to 1961 when the Mayor’s Emergency Control Board was established (NYC
OEM 2015). NYC has experienced several large disasters throughout its history, the most
famous of which has been the 9/11 terrorist attacks (Umbach 2002). After the attacks, the city
created the Office Emergency Management (OEM), a centralized emergency management
agency. Primarily funded by federal grants targeted at enhancing security and emergency
response, OEM developed robust emergency plans addressing the disaster response needs of
the city.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
3.4 The Rockaways: Marginalization & Vulnerability
The Rockaways, part of the borough of Queens, is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and
the Long Island Sound. It is one of the city's most exposed and vulnerable areas to coastal
flooding, not only due to severe weather events, but also to tidal movements, occasional
heavy rains as well as coastal storms. It is home to approximately 120,000 people (NYC DCP
2015). In terms of infrastructure and access to the rest of the city, it is one of the isolated areas
of the city, with limited mass transit resources, aging infrastructure and little economic
activity.
Fig. 7: The Rockaways (Google Maps 2015)
The Rockaways has a unique demographic composition reflecting that of the larger city.
Its eastern and western ends exhibit economic and ethnic segregation as the western end is
comprised of a middle income single family homes and the eastern end home to a high
percentage of public housing developments (NYC DCP 2015), inhabited by households living
under the poverty line. The Rockaways also is home to a large aging population, as it has a
large concentration of nursing homes (Pollack 2012). Current statistics point to the unique
complex vulnerability factors found in the Rockaways. Worthy of consideration are the
following:
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060

14% of Rockaway residents are over the age of 65 (NYC DCP)

65% of its population are minorities (US Census 2015)

11.5% are substance abusers (NYC 2015)

65% percentage of inhabitants suffer from some form of chronic medical
condition such as diabetes or asthma. (NYC 2015)

23% have been hospitalized due to a mental health issue (NYC 2015).
Given its geographical location, its unique demographics, and its alienation from the rest
of the city, the Rockaways is a particularly vulnerable area of NYC. Soon after Sandy made
landfall, residents of the Rockaways accused the city of failing to adequately respond to the
damage Sandy caused in the Rockaways, as the area remained without power, and cut off
from most of the city for weeks after the storm (FEMA 2015).
3.5 Irene vs Sandy - Coastal Storms
Hurricane Irene and Sandy represent two very different disasters to those in NYC DRM.
While Irene was a dangerous storm in both scale and intensity, it did not bring the wide scale
flooding and subsequent damage initially feared (Aerts & Botzen 2012). It dropped a
maximum of 7 inches of rain on the city and produced a storm surge of 4.36ft (FEMA 2015).
In the Rockaways, one of the most exposed areas of the city experienced the worst of the
storm as it is prone to flooding and beach erosion.
As Irene was approaching NYC activated its CSP and called for an unprecedented
evacuation of 375,000 residents, located in evacuation Zone A, an area encompassing all of
the Rockaways (NYC DHMH 2014). OEM coordinated the citywide response effort,
activated its shelter system, and took a number of precautionary steps in accordance with its
CSP plan.
Where Irene merely threatened, Sandy delivered. As the storm made landfall, Sandy’s
radius measured approximately 870 nautical miles, and the system engulfed the US eastern
seaboard (Blake 2013). Sandy approached the city as a post-tropical storm (Blake 2013), but
what was of more concern to officials was its trajectory. The storm had taken a northwest
turn which increased the storm surge affecting the city, and influence of the NY Bight (ibid).
The hours preceding its arrival, city officials were left stunned as the forecasts indicated the
storm would take a path that was certain to assail the city with significant storm surge. The
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Rockaways braced for another storm and again the city ordered a mandatory evacuation of
Zone A.
Fig. 8: Satellite Image of Hurricane Irene (NASA 2015)
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Fig. 9: Satellite Image of Hurricane Sandy (NASA 2014)
On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall bringing with it a 14ft storm surge
that resulted in a series of emergency events, in what R7 called ‘a doomsday domino
reaction’. Hurricane Sandy left 2 million without power, forced the emergency evacuation of
several hospitals, medical care facilities, and severely constrained supply chains. The
Rockaways were especially devastated and its vulnerable population endured the worst of the
storm.
Jaydie Ortiz
Fig. 10: Before and after aerial photos of the Rockaways (NOAA 2015).
K1454060
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
CHAPTER 4
FINDINGS
In this chapter, the findings and analysis of the interview data are applied to the research
questions. Where appropriate, factors of resistance are linked to shared megacity
characteristics.
4.1 Irene & Sandy Exposed People Centric Gaps in Coastal Storm Planning
In 2000, NYC released its city-wide emergency Coastal Storm Plan (CSP) (NYC OEM
2015). The CSP, developed through the Coastal Storm Planning Board comprised of a long
list of city agency representatives, was a hazard-focused plan employing a scenario where a
coastal storm approached the city resulting in storm surge flooding and damage to
infrastructure. Agency representatives were responsible for a particular facet of the plan, such
as sheltering, transportation, public health needs and so forth. The plan allocated core
operational competencies, such as the management of shelters, debris removal, and security to
agencies responsible for these functions under normal operating conditions. The timeline of
the CSP featured 3 distinct sections: period before landfall, zero-hour or landfall, and the
post-landfall period.
The hours before landfall provided the city and its residents the
opportunity to mobilize resources, shut down critical infrastructure and order evacuations.
The hours immediately after are focused on life-safety and mass care initiatives, as well as
infrastructure assessments and repairs. The CSP did not include recovery planning and to
date this is a gap the city struggles to address (R1, R2, R3 and R5).
The CSP received a major update in 2006, driven by the lessons learned from the Katrina
response failures. Mayor Bloomberg, a long-time advocate for CCA (McArdle 2014; Wagner
et al. 2014), directed NYC OEM to revise the CSP to address the city’s increasing
vulnerability to coastal storms. With strong political backing, OEM steered renewed planning
efforts and updated the CSP with several logistical components designed around the
sheltering of evacuees, a major issue during Hurricane Katrina. R2, directly involved in the
planning process, recounted how the adaptation of the plan faced little resistance as the
“memory of Katrina” and the “thought of a similar event happening in NYC” was an
unacceptable risk to everyone in NYC government.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Central to the CSP were a series of pre-emptive defensive measures enacted during the
before landfall period. Evacuation orders, the shutdown of mass transportation systems, the
powering down of electrical grids, disruption of gas lines, opening of emergency evacuation
shelters, mobilization and staging of equipment and supplies were all planned to occur within
this pre-landfall period. The plan relied heavily on the logistical capabilities of the city and
OEM's internal logistics unit spearheaded the plan development (R3; Gibbs & Holloway
2012).
The CSP attempted to include people-centric strategies, such as accommodation for pets
and their owners within the same shelter, a direct takeaway from Katrina, where many pet
owners chose not to evacuate because they would not be able to include their pets (Hunt et al.
2012). Yet, even the most humanitarian facets of the plan, the LSSP and ESS, focused on the
mass care and sheltering of up to 70,000 evacuees for 5 days, lacked any meaningful human
vulnerability analysis. Despite a highly diverse demographic, the CSP treated every
community district the same. The only vulnerability factor considered was an areas location
on the city’s flood zone map which (NYC OEM 2015). The city’s 59 community districts, the
most localized political grouping found in NYC, were otherwise treated equally under the
plans assumptions. The result was a plan that allowed a shelter servicing community districts
4 & 5, with a mean household income of $153,649, to receive the same support and supplies
as community district 14, located in the Rockaways, an area with a medium income of
$47,218 (NYC DCP 2015). DRM literature shows that a household’s income level plays a
critical role in their resiliency towards hazardous events (Blaikie et al 2014). In a megacity
like New York, there are a number of demographical variances found throughout the city, of
which income is the most readily available to DRM planners (US Census 2015). The CSP
only considered the physical proximity to a flood zone excluding an obvious social
vulnerability factor. The lack of vulnerability analysis was factor that resulted in an uneven
distribution of supplies and unexpected burn rates, one of the many issues the shelter system
faced (R5 2015).
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
LEGEND
Fig. 11: NYC Flood Zones (NYC OEM 2015)
On August 26, 2011, NYC activated the CSP and for the first time in its history, ordered
an evacuation of Zone A. The city emergency shelter system was also activated and the city
began to take the preparatory actions as outlined in the CSP. Despite little storm damage to
NYC, there was a significant amount of resources mobilized and deployed to support the
evacuation orders, namely the shelters and evacuees. Soon after the order was issued, OEM
found itself struggling with issues pertinent to the Rockaways (R7). Of paramount concern
was the lack of emergency planning found in private nursing homes, numerous in the
Rockaways. The regulation and licensing of the private long-term care facilities fell under the
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
jurisdiction of NY State (Gibbs & Holloway 2013), yet their physical location in the
Rockaways made the city responsible for their well-being during an emergency response.
With little enforcement of state regulations, the majority of nursing homes failed to establish
actionable emergency evacuation plans. During Irene and Sandy, the city was forced to find
transportation and shelter for patients in the care of these facilities. The city was left with
little alternative than to evacuate long-term care patients to Special Medical Needs Shelters
(SMNS) within the emergency shelter system. The data gathered from the respondents (R1,
R2, R3, R6 & R7) showed that during the Irene response of primary concern was the ability to
mobilize an evacuation transportation team to support these nursing homes.
Other issues, namely focused on the shelter experience, were identified by R1, R2, R3
and R7. Though the city had issued an evacuation order, officials were not prepared for the
number of people requiring transport to emergency shelters, specifically those with mobility
issues (R7). The allocation of shelter staff was also of major concern during Irene. The CSP
called for the city’s evacuation shelters to be staffed by civil servants, previously identified
and trained to fill the emergency role during a city-wide event, however, execution of this
facet of the plan was problematic due to the segregated nature of the city’s civil servant labor
force. The participation of the those identified fell to individual agencies to enforce yet no
formal commitment to staff shelters was established among the city agencies (R1).
Approximately 24 hours after the evacuation order was issued, the shelters were closed and
evacuees were allowed to return to their homes. Delaying the closure of the shelters was the
unprecedented issue providing of transportation to evacuees which did not have the means to
coordinate their return home (R5). To put this into context, a fare on the NYC mass transit
system was $2.50 at the time and many evacuees did not even have the means to pay for their
return fare home (R5).
The city emerged from Irene with little damage and, for the most part, successfully
implemented its CSP. According to R3, this may have left those engaged in the response
efforts with a sense of ‘false’ confidence in their ability to ‘handle the next event’ (R3). OEM
began its analysis of the response as well as its preparation for the next coastal storm season.
OEM brought to the CSP board many of the issues it faced during the Irene experience and it
was during board meetings that the lack of emergency planning at private nursing homes
within city limits became a known issue to decision makers. In response to the lack of
evacuation transport, and the realization that the emergency shelter system could be the
shelter of last resort for healthcare facilities, OEM made slight changes to its emergency
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
supply stockpile and executed emergency transportation contracts in anticipation of the next
event.
It was clear to the city as Sandy approached the storm would prove to be a very different
event than Irene. Soon after making landfall, a storm surge of over 14ft (Blake et al. 2013)
flooded the coastal areas of NYC. Disasters, though usually caused by an initial triggering
event, quickly evolve into a myriad of adverse conditions, often built upon the former
(Mitchell 1995) in any region. This is especially true of megacities where disasters inevitably
become a mix of social, technological and environmental hazards (ibid). Sandy resulted in
sequence of events that moved the city from one life safety response to another. As with Irene
an evacuation order of zone A was ordered, the shelters were activated and the staging of
equipment and supplies was coordinated.
As the storm surge made its way inland, the city was soon faced with an unprecedented
crisis: the emergency evacuation of hospitals and long-term medical facilities due to flooding.
Although hospitals in NYC are required to have in place emergency generators, no regulation
mandating their physical location above possible flood water levels was in place. In fact,
many facilities installed generators in basements or ground floors (R1). As the city lost power
south of 42nd street due to an explosion at an electrical plant located on the east river, several
hospitals, also located on the river, found their generators and other critical infrastructure
flooded.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Fig. 12: Hurricane Sandy inundation zones — New York City metropolitan area,
October 2012 (CDC 2015)
Private nursing homes in the Rockaways, once again, presented emergency managers
with a challenge. The city and state did not issue an evacuation order of medical facilities, and
as a result, nursing homes were not evacuated before the storm. Part of this was due to the
mayor delaying the evacuation order as forecasts continued to change (R3). While NYC
benefits from advance notice of a coastal storm’s approach, it is not afforded any certainty as
to the final trajectory or impact. This uncertainty, left city officials increasingly wary of
issuing an expensive evacuation order without being certain of its necessity.
The city’s SMNS facilities were not prepared for patients requiring long-term and intense
medical care, and medical facilities did not make provision to ensure staff would accompany
their residents. This had an adverse impact on patient overall care as well as the general
conditions of the shelters themselves (R6). While SMNS facilities were staffed with medical
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
professionals they were soon overwhelmed by the demands presented by patients requiring
intensive care (R1).
Fig. 13 Promenade Rehabilitation & Health Care Center in the
Rockaway evacuated during Hurricane Irene. Credit Stolarik/The New
York Times (Baker & Barbaro 2011)
Fig. 14 Promenade Rehabilitation & Health Care Center in the
Rockaways After Hurricane Sandy. Credit Chang W. Lee/The New York
Times (Powell & Fink 2012)
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
General population shelters also experienced major issues during Sandy, the first of
which was the length sheltering. The CSP assumed a 5-day sheltering operation yet during
Sandy they were in operation for over 23 days (Gibbs & Holloway 2013). The lack of human
vulnerability analysis left the city scrambling to answer the needs of those segments of the
population most reliant on government service - the impoverished of the Rockaways (Suaiya
et al. 2014). Those living in poverty are the most affected by disasters as they live on the
precipice of disaster in their everyday existence (Fothergill & Peek 2004). The lack of any
meaningful analysis of the vulnerabilities faced by its population left the city unprepared to
deal with the numbers of people who had no other recourse than to stay at the evacuation
shelters (R5).
Communications was also an area of concern during both Irene and Sandy. When the
mayor issued the evacuation order many of the communications to the public featured
technical information. The use of the city’s flood map and GIS mapping technology, while
illustrative of the predicted impact of the storm and useful in preparedness material, were not
easily understood by the general public (Zarcadoolas et al. 2007). The city made reasonable
attempts at communicating the risks associated with Sandy, issuing notices in various
languages, unfortunately, many residents did not evacuate as the concept of a storm surge was
not communicated effectively (Morrow 2015). The lack of compliance with the evacuation
order complicated the response efforts. R3 expressed frustration at the public's inability to
take personal accountability for their safety by ignoring the warnings of city officials.
4.2 NYC’s Megacities Characteristics Fuel Resistance Towards Transformative DRM
Resistance Factor 1:
Tensions between State & City
Despite the significant issues related to evacuation of nursing homes as made evident in
Irene and again during Sandy, and the glimpse into the lack of emergency planning in the
medical sector during what R1 and R2 called a "dry run", there was little done in the year
between Irene and Sandy to address the issues. Though the state and the city are close
planning partners, the state has to date refused to collaborate with the city on addressing the
lack of emergency planning found in private nursing homes (R3). During Sandy, this failure
resulted in over 6,300 patients being transferred to inadequate SMNS and general population
shelter facilities (Gibbs & Holloway 2013). R6 recalled reports of blankets and other bedding
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
used as “adult diapers” as the shelters were ill equipped to deal with the physical care needs of
this population. R1 recounted how there were no systems in place to track where the patients
had gone and shelter staff were forced to rely on color-coded index cards as a means of
identification.
Megacity Characteristic – NYC Resistance Factor 1:
Tension between State & City
Fig. 15
NYC Resistance Factor 1: Tension between State & City (Authors Illustration
derived from sources cited)
The inability to transform current DRM policy to address the neglect demonstrated
nursing home administrators is a significant issue in the city’s CSP. In response, OEM has
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
taken an incremental approach by adapting its ESS medical supplies and the CSP to reflect the
increasing demands on SMNS shelters but these incremental adjustments do not address the
issues raised by the Sandy event. While the official Sandy related death toll was recorded at
43 (Gibbs & Holloway 2013) and no deaths were recorded during the evacuation of hospitals
and healthcare centers (ibid), it is unclear what effects the evacuation and subsequent lapses in
care had on these patients.
Resistance Factor 2:
Scarcity of Resources
R1 reported budgetary concerns are a major decision factor in DRM, a statement echoed
by all of the respondents. During Irene, the city “waited until the FEMA folks assured them
of a declaration” before issuing an evacuation order (R5). FEMA will reimburses the costs
incurred associated with an emergency response if a presidential disaster declaration is issued
(FEMA 2015). Because of the lack of funds available to support DRM, city officials were
hesitant to commit to the large costs, understood to be “in the tens of millions” (R5), by
issuing an evacuation order without the guarantee of FEMA financial support. The scarcity of
resources and the unwillingness of agencies to commit resources from their day-to-day
operations without assurances of reimbursement delayed the evacuation orders of both Sandy
and Irene (R2, R5). It also played a significant role in the lack of shelter staff committed to
the response effort. R5 recounted how shelter staff trainee numbers were always a concern at
CSP board meetings as agencies did little to enforce staff participation and R2 reported low
morale among shelter staff, as “they felt thrown into a response effort with little training.”
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Megacity Characteristic – NYC Resistance Factor 2:
Scarcity of Resources
Fig. 16 NYC Resistance Factor 2: Scarcity of Resources (Authors illustration derived
from cited sources)
Resistance Factor 3:
Misunderstanding of Hazards due to Physical Disconnect from Natural Environment
NYC is one of the most human altered landscapes on earth. This alteration has left the
city disconnected from its natural environment, resulting in an inability to recognize natural
hazards. Land use policies do not take into account increasing coastal hazards as throughout
its history the city has developed its coastlines (Rosenzweig & Solecki 2014; Wagner et al.
2014). The city, under the Bloomberg administration, oversaw a push of coastal revitalization
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
plans, which sought to transform its historically industrial coastline into livable and ‘green’
areas. This initiative led to the creation of more housing in flood zones, which was in direct
contradiction with the city’s NPCC report identifying the need to preserve and re-establish
coastal wetlands (NPCC 2009). While the city sought to strengthen its resiliency through
preparedness programs and outreach (NYC OEM 2015), it did little to adapt its critical aging
infrastructure to the risks posed by climate change, partly due to an underestimation of risks
and lack of funds to support meaningful adaptation (R2). When Sandy made landfall, the
storm surge flooded the city’s subway system, caused an explosion at one of its power plants
and crippled its fuel supplies. The locale of critical infrastructure facilities in flood zones
exacerbated the impacts of the storm surge complicating response and recovery efforts.
Megacity Characteristic – NYC Resistance Factor 3:
Physical Disconnection from Natural Environment
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Fig. 17 NYC Resistance Factor 3: Physical Disconnection from Natural Environment
(Authors illustration derived from cited sources).
Since Sandy, a series of defense measures, outlined in citywide resiliency plan (NYC
2015) have been taken to strengthen the city’s infrastructure. The development of NYC’s
coastal areas continues, despite the increased awareness of flooding hazards, and points to the
city’s continued resistance towards a more transformative approach, such as the rededication
of flood zones to marshland. The over confidence in engineering solutions to build back
“better and stronger” (ibid) has resulted in little room for debate on whether or not these
coastal areas, which will only experience more floods as sea-levels rise, should be repurposed
as the city continues its encroachment on flood prone areas.
Resistance Factor 4:
Complex Governance
Negotiation, trust, and collaboration are key components to disaster governance and the
attitudes of the actors and stakeholders involved determine outcomes (Pelling 2011; Tierney
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
2012). The attitudes of policymakers and actors continue to prove to be a major factor of
resistance in NYC DRM. There is a sentiment of unwillingness to take responsibility and to
collaborate on planning, as indicated by R1, R2, R3, R4 and R7. R3 went so far as to call the
CSP board ‘a lame duck’ insisting that all of the major adaptations made to its CSP plan have
been recommended outside of the CSP Board and operationalized by OEM. The lack of
confidence in such a central piece to NYC DRM is a significant issue the city will have to
overcome.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Megacity Characteristic – NYC Resistance Factor 4:
Complex Governance
Fig. 18 NYC Resistance Factor 4: Complex Governance (Authors illustration
derived from cited sources)
Resistance Factor 5:
Reliance on Technocratic Solutions
The treatment of hazards and vulnerabilities as objects instead of expressions of complex
relationships between people, political economies and the environment fosters reliance on
technocratic solutions (Lavell & Maskry 2014). The city’s CCA DRM efforts after Sandy
have included the introduction of physical defense structures, such as sea walls and programs
to ‘build back better’. Critical infrastructure facility defenses were hardened while more
transformative solutions, such as the relocation of infrastructure, have not been pursued. This
is partially attributed to the uncertainty decision maker’s face when planning for future
hazards. R2 states ‘planning partners no longer are interested in talking about hurricanes and
everyone calling Sandy a one in a hundred year storm has made matters worse.’
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
Megacity Characteristic – NYC Resistance Factor 5:
Reliance on Technocratic Solutions
Fig. 19 NYC Resistance Factor 5: Reliance on Technocratic Solutions (Authors
illustration derived from cited sources)
The lack of a comprehensive vulnerability analysis can also be attributed to this
preference for technocratic solutions. All of the respondents agreed current planning lacks the
social and physical vulnerability analysis often found in the global South but varied in how
they prioritized its inclusion in future DRM CCA efforts. R1, R2, R5 and R6 were the most
open to the inclusion of vulnerability analysis in DRM planning, while R3 and R7 were the
most resistant stating that ‘the public must take responsibility for not heeding the mayor’s
order’ (R3 2015). While the city has made significant strides in responding to a significant
gap in its CSP, as exemplified by the Americans with Disabilities Act CSP provisions and
emergency feeding plans (Solecki 2015), it continues to lag behind in developing strategies
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
that reflect the diversity of its population and its varying states of vulnerability. To date, none
of the respondents are aware of an in-depth vulnerability analysis effort, and plans continue to
focus on storm surge inundation levels as the core of CSP planning assumptions.
4.3 Current and Future Policy Implications
The experiences of Irene and Sandy had a significant impact on future DRM in NYC, as
made evident by the extensive Sandy After Action Report (Gibbs & Holloway 2013), the city
council hearings held to examine the planning and response operations (ibid) and the renewed
focus on resiliency (NYC 2015). The shortfall in the sheltering system during Sandy led to a
lawsuit against the city filed by several special needs advocacy groups. The city has entered
into a settlement with these groups and has committed itself to various, incremental
adjustments to its operational plans, which begin to take into account the needs of its mobility
impaired demographic and the special medical needs of the city as a whole.
Furthermore, the events of Hurricane Irene and Sandy have brought the city’s DRM to
the forefront of everyday operations.
R3 reports that many of the city agencies have
established their own emergency units, reflecting an understanding that effective DRM will
require a significant commitment of resources moving forward. The DeBlasio administration,
which took office in 2014, has made emergency response a focal point in its vision for the city
(NYC 2015). DRM is no longer only discussed at the precipice of an event, but instead is a
part of day-to-day operations (R2).
The challenges faced by policy makers in NYC can be extrapolated to their peers in other
megacities.
The questions surrounding climate change risks and the benefits of
transformative adaptation will continue to challenge transformative visions with
implementation challenges (Lempert & Collins 2007), and it is clear how as a megacity, the
characteristics explored in this study have resulted in greater displays of resistance in NYC.
NYC’s long-standing bureaucracy, which segregates areas of responsibility to specific
agencies for management (Dryzek 1992), is an impediment to multilateral and collaborative
decision making process necessitated by CCA. Managing relationships among actors
continues to prove difficult.
While contributors to resistance, megacity characteristics have presented unique
opportunities as well. Their status as global areas of importance have resulted in visionary
policies, which have served as examples for others to follow. NYC, while struggling with its
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
resistance to transformative CCA, has used its recent experiences to elevate their concerns to
national and transnational forums. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, 100 Resilient
Cities Centennial Challenge, Rockefeller Foundation are all examples of knowledge sharing
and policy driving forums, and many of these groups members linked by megacity status,
geography and other defining factors (McArdle 2014). Participation in these groups allows
members to share knowledge, expertise and even resources (ibid) accelerating the
implementation of transformative CCA in regions that will not have the time to experiment
with their own attempts at CCA given the need to act in response to the climate change crisis.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION - CLOSING
THOUGHTS
CONSIDERATIONS FOR RESEARCH
&
FUTURE
“What started out as a natural disaster became a man-made one — a
failure of government to look out for its own citizens.” US President
Barack H. Obama, speaking at the 10-year anniversary commemoration
of Hurricane Katrina (Tao 2015)
The prevailing academic understanding of what constitutes a disaster is clear: it is not an
event that brings a disaster but instead, failing political and economic structures that leave
individuals in chronic states of vulnerability (Blaikie et al. 2014). Disasters are failures in the
social contracts between a state and the people it is obligated to serve. Megacities represent
especially hazardous areas for human beings, as the vulnerabilities faced by their inhabitants
are not only complex due to the strains posed by exponential population growth, but are
difficult to address given their complex governance structures. These structures, with long
entrenched positions of slow and incremental adaptation are particularly resistance to the
transformative adaptation DRM required to address the severe impacts of climate change.
The NYC Irene and Sandy Rockaway case study provides DRM practitioners with an
opportunity to explore how shared megacity characteristics influence disaster governance and
impact resistance. The statistics are clear, population shifts from rural to urban areas are
expected to increase and as the globe adds another billion people to its total population
(UNDESA 2014). The majority of our future populations will live their lives in sprawling
metropolises (Hoffmann-Martinot & Sellers 2005). At the same time, the likelihood of
maintaining a +2 C degree average temperature target is unlikely and the consequences of this
failure will prove catastrophic to megacities across the globe.
While it has been morally appropriate to focus on DRM solutions tailored towards the
global South (Rodima-Taylor et al. 2012), whose inhabitants unjustly bear the burden of
climate change, this paper has shown how the lessons of a megacity in the North can be
applied to megacities all over the world. Following the current models of participatory
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
governance, megacities can further knowledge sharing and collaboration in finding long
lasting solutions to the risks imposed by climate change (McArdle 2014). Many in DRM have
expressed frustration at the lack of significant adaptation in policy and planning, which has
featured incremental rather than transformative change (Berrang-Ford et al. 2011; Ford et al.
2011; Park et al. 2012; Tompkins et al. 2010). Megacities, as cultural, political and economic
loci are positioned to steer the global debate towards a direction where action, and not
rhetoric, become primary objectives (Brenner 2004; Birkmann 2010; Krass 2007). NYC, its
leaders and citizens have made a conscious decision to tackle the challenges posed by climate
change and there is much to learn in its struggle to adapt to its dramatically increasing
hazards. NYC will not exist, as it is known today, if drastic measures are not taken both
locally and globally to address the climate change crisis.
Given the large-scale potential for economic and human costs, the gap in DRM literature
focusing on megacities is alarming. The expressions of resistance identified in this study are
specific to NYC but their relevance to other megacities merits further exploration as they have
been influenced and, in some cases created by, shared megacity characteristics. This research
has attempted to link resistance to adaptation to megacity characteristics, characteristics that
exist in other metropolises, in both the global North and South (Kotter & Friesecke 2009;
Krass 2007). While NYC’s DRM struggles and successes after Irene and Sandy do not
provide a blueprint easily followed by other megacities, they do provide experiences that can
be analyzed and made actionable by other megacities.
Also worthy of consideration, while not explored in this paper, are the capitalist
influences on social policy.
Though all respondents agreed that a human vulnerability
analysis would be beneficial to DRM in NYC, they all expressed the “need to prepare the
public” R2 and to “communicate risks and dangerous” R3 so that citizens would be more
“personally accountable” R5 for their outcomes. The lack of social safety nets and the
relentless destruction of the welfare state is now a global trend as the world embraces the
capitalistic political economy of the global North (Caraley 1996). If disaster are failures the
contract between a citizenry and its government, what can be said about governments that
place their contractual obligations back on the citizen they are obligated to serve?
Actors and stakeholders involved in disaster governance are challenged to produce
meaningful policy responses to an impending climate change crisis. A crisis that cannot be
easily imagined, despite increasingly sophisticated computer simulations and data forecasts.
Like any social participatory process, there will be obstacles to overcome, usually human in
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
origin and expression (Pelling 2011). The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
2015-2030 is explicit in its support for international knowledge sharing as a method for
achieving global disaster risk reduction. As megacities form international partnerships and
coalitions in the quest towards CCA, they are positioned to leverage the experiences,
successes and failures of their partners via these international networks (McArdle 2014). As
R5 states ‘Resistance is a people problem’, and its solution will require people to solve age
old questions about the nature of human interaction and collaboration. The future of our
species and ultimately of our planet depends on our ability to solve these questions. Collective
learning has been the keystone of human progress and may very well prove to be critical in
this epic challenge.
Hurricane Katrina, and to a lesser extent, Hurricane Sandy, reminded the one of the most
powerful nations on earth of an indelible truth: disasters are equalizers. The lessons learned
in NYC are applicable to every megacity today. At the time this research was concluded,
there were 3 category 4 storms in the Pacific (Lee 2015) and research linking climate change
impacts to political insecurity in the Mideast (Kelly et al. 2015), exacerbating a human
displacement crisis the wealthy nations of western Europe struggle to cope with is now
making its way into main stream media. While transformation adaptation is not the Rosetta
Stone to the challenges currently faced by DRM, in the face of unimaginable future a +2C
degree world will offer, it may prove to be our only option.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
REFERENCES
ADGER, W.N., LORENZONI, I. & OBRIEN, K.L. 2009.Adaptation Now, ADGER,
W.N., LORENZONI, I. & OBRIEN, K.L (eds.) Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds,
Values, Governance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
AERTS, J. C. J. H. & BOTZEN, W. J. W. 2012. Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for
New York City? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.
AGRANOFF, R. & MCGUIRE, M. 2003. Inside the matrix: Integrating the paradigms of
intergovernmental and network management. International Journal of Public
Administration, 26, 1401-1422.
BAXTER, J. & EYLES, J. 1997. Evaluating Qualitative Research in Social Geography:
Establishing ‘Rigour’ in Interview Analysis. Transactions of the Institute of British
Geographers, 22, 505-525.
BERRANG-FORD, L., FORD, J. D. & PATERSON, J. 2011. Are we adapting to climate
change? Global Environmental Change, 21, 25-33.
BIRKMANN, J., GARSCHAGEN, M., KRAAS, F. & QUANG, N. 2010. Adaptive urban
governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to
climate change. Sustainability Science, 5, 185-206.
BLAIKIE, P. 1994. At Risk Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability And Disasters,
Hoboken, Hoboken : Taylor & Francis Ltd.
BLAIKIE, P., CANNON, T., DAVIS, I. & WISNER, B. 2014. At risk: natural hazards,
people's vulnerability and disasters, Routledge.
BLAKE, E.S., KIMBERLAIN, T.D., BERG, R.J., CANGIALOSI, J.P., & BEVEN, J.L.
2013. Tropical storm report Hurricane Sandy. Accessed 14/7/2015 from
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf
BLANCO, D. V. 2015. Disaster Governance in the Philippines: Issues, Lessons Learned,
and Future Directions in the Post-Yolanda Super Typhoon Aftermath. International
Journal of Public Administration, 38, 743-756.
BLASTLAND, M. 2008. The Tiger That Isn't Seeing Through a World of Numbers,
London, London : Profile Books.
BRENNER, N. 2004. New state spaces urban governance and the rescaling of statehood,
Oxford, Oxford : Oxford University Press.
CARALEY, D. 1996. Dismantling the Federal Safety Net: Fictions Versus Realities.
Political Science Quarterly, 111, 225-258.
CLEARY, M., HORSFALL, J. & HAYTER, M. 2014. Qualitative research: quality
results? Journal of Advanced Nursing, 70, 711-713.
CLOKE, P. J. 2004. Practising human geography, London: SAGE.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
COOK, J., DANA, N., SARAH, A. G., MARK, R., BÄRBEL, W., ROB, P., ROBERT,
W., PETER, J. & ANDREW, S. 2013. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global
warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 024024.
COPPOLA, D. P. 2011. Introduction to international disaster management. Boston,
Butterworth-Heinemann.
DAVENPORT, C. 2014. Pentagon Signals Security Risks of Climate Change. The New
York Times. New York. Accessed 09/03/2015 from
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/us/pentagon-says-global-warming-presentsimmediate-security-threat.html?_r=0
DJALANTE, R., HOLLEY, C. & THOMALLA, F. 2011. Adaptive governance and
managing resilience to natural hazards. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2,
1-14.
DRYZEK, J. S. 1992. Ecology and discursive democracy: Beyond liberal capitalism and
the administrative state. Capitalism Nature Socialism, 3, 18-42. Accessed 15/8/2015 from
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10455759209358485#.Venr4o2FOUk
EL-MASRI, S. & TIPPLE, G. 2002. Natural Disaster, Mitigation and Sustainability: The
Case of Developing Countries. International Planning Studies, 7, 157-175.
ELLEN, I. G., APOS, REGAN, K. M., SCHWARTZ, A. E. & STIEFEL, L. 2002.
Immigrant Children and New York City: Segregation and Its Consequences for Schooling.
Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2002, 183-214
FEMA (2015). Hurricane Sandy FEMA After-Action Report [online] Available at:
https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/33772 [Accessed 14 August 2015].
FEMA (2015). Public Assistance: Local, State, Tribal and Non-Profit | FEMA.gov
[online]. Available from: http://www.fema.gov/public-assistance-local-state-tribal-andnon-profit (Accessed 11 September 2015).
FIELD, C.B., IPCC.2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance
climate change adaptation : special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge, Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
FOLKE, C., CARPENTER, S. R., WALKER, B., SCHEFFER, M., CHAPIN, T. &
ROCKSTROM, J. 2010. Resilience Thinking: Integrating Resilience, Adaptability and
Transformability. Ecology and Society, 15.
FOLKE, C., HAHN, T., OLSSON, P. & NORBERG, J. 2005. Adaptive Governance of
Social-Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 30, 441-473.
Accessed 27/8/2015 from
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144511
FORD, J., BERRANG-FORD, L. & PATERSON, J. 2011. A systematic review of
observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change, 106, 327-336.
FOTHERGILL, A. & PEEK, L. 2004. Poverty and Disasters in the United States: A
Review of Recent Sociological Findings. Natural Hazards, 32, 89-110.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
FRAILING, K. & HARPER, D. W. 2015. Through the Lens of Katrina: Long-Term
Disaster Recovery in the United States. American Behavioral Scientist, 59, 12071213.Accessed 21/8/2015 from http://abs.sagepub.com/content/59/10/1207.full.pdf+html
FREEMAN, J. 1997. Collaborative governance in the administrative state. UCLA Law
Review, 45, 1-98.
GIBBS, L. & HOLLOWAY, C. 2013. Hurricane Sandy After Action: Report and
Recommendations to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. Hurricane Sandy After Action:
Report and Recommendations to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, The City of New York,
New York, NY, 36.
HALLEGATTE, S. 2009. Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global
Environmental Change, 19, 240-247.
HANDMER, J. W. & DOVERS, S. R. 1996. A Typology of Resilience: Rethinking
Institutions for Sustainable Development. Organization & Environment, 9, 482-511.
Accessed 7/7/2015 from http://oae.sagepub.com/content/9/4/482.full.pdf+html
HEAZLE, M., TANGNEY, P., BURTON, P., HOWES, M., GRANT-SMITH, D., REIS,
K. & BOSOMWORTH, K. 2013. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation: An
incremental approach to disaster risk management in Australia. Environmental Science &
Policy, 33, 162-170.
HOFFMANN-MARTINOT, V. & SELLERS, J. 2005 (Eds.) Metropolitanization and
political change, Opladen, Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften.
HOLLING, C. S. 1973. Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems. Annual Review of
Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1-23. Accessed on 1/7/2015 from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2096802.pdf?acceptTC=true
HOWES, M., TANGNEY, P., REIS, K., GRANT-SMITH, D., HEAZLE, M.,
BOSOMWORTH, K. & BURTON, P. 2015. Towards networked governance: improving
interagency communication and collaboration for disaster risk management and climate
change adaptation in Australia. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 58,
757-776.
HUNT, M., BOUGUE, K., ROHRBAUGH, N. 2012. Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior
to Hurricane Irene. Animals, 2, 529-539.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Working group I fifth
assessment report. IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014. Intergovernmental panel on
climate change fifth assessment report (AR5). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Accessed online XXX
KAWACHI, I. & SUBRAMANIAN, S. 2014. Income inequality. Social epidemiology,
126.
KATES, R. W., TRAVIS, W. R. & WILBANKS, T. J. 2012. Transformational adaptation
when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient. Proceedings of the
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
National Academy of Sciences, 109, 7156-7161.Accessed 20/08/2015 from
http://www.pnas.org/content/109/19/7156.full.pdf
KELLEY, C. P., MOHTADI, S., CANE, M. A., SEAGER, R. & KUSHNIR, Y. 2015.
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112,
3241.
KÖTTER, T. & FRIESECKE, F. 2009. Developing urban indicators for managing mega
cities. Land Governance in Support of the MDGs: Responding to New Challenges
(Washington DC, USA).
KRAAS, F. 2007. Megacities and Global Change: Key Priorities. The Geographical
Journal, 173, 79-82. Accessed online 1/7/2015 from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/30113495.pdf
KIRSHEN, P., WATSON, C., DOUGLAS, E., GONTZ, A., LEE, J. & TIAN, Y. 2008.
Coastal flooding in the Northeastern United States due to climate change. Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13, 437-451.
KOOIMAN, J. 2003. Governing as Governance, Sage.
KÖTTER, T., FRIESECKE, F., 2009 Developing Urban Indicators for Managing Mega
Cities. Land Governance in Support of the MDGs: Responding to New Challenges
(Washington DC, USA)
KUBLER, D. (2012), ‘Megacities and the challenge of governance.’ Paper presented at
the workshop Governance issues in megacities: Chinese and International Perspectives,
Beijing, 9-10 October 2012.
LAVELL, A. & MASKREY, A. 2014. The future of disaster risk management.
Environmental Hazards, 13, 267-280.
LEBEL, L., ANDERIES, J. M., CAMPBELL, B., FOLKE, C., HATFIELD-DODDS, S.,
HUGHES, T. P. & WILSON, J. 2006. Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience
in Regional Social-Ecological Systems. Ecology and Society, 11. Accessed online
1/7/2015 from http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art19/
LEMPERT, R. J. & COLLINS, M. T. 2007. Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold
Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches. Risk
Analysis, 27, 1009-1026. Accessed online 8/7/2015 from
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00940.x/full
LIN, N., EMANUEL, K. A., SMITH, J. A. & VANMARCKE, E. 2010. Risk assessment
of hurricane storm surge for New York City. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, 115, n/a-n/a. (D18). DOI: 10.1029/2009JD13630
LONGHURST, R. 2003. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups, in CLIFFORD, N.,
& VALENTINE, G., (eds). Key Methods in Geography. 117-132. London: Sage.
MAGUIRE, B. & HAGAN, P. 2007. Disasters and communities: understanding social
resilience. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 22, 16-20.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
MATYAS, D. & PELLING, M. 2015. Positioning resilience for 2015: the role of
resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation in disaster risk management policy.
Disasters, 39, s1-s18.Accessed 8/7/2015 from
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/disa.12107/
MCARDLE, A. 2014. Lessons for New York: comparative urban governance and the
challenge of climate change. Fordham Urban Law Journal, 42, 91.
MILLER, L. M. 2012. Controlling disasters: recognising latent goals after Hurricane
Katrina. Disasters, 36, 122-13. Accessed 31/07/2015 from
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01244.x/epdf
MITCHELL, J. K. 1999. Crucibles of hazard : mega-cities and disasters in transition,
New York, New York : United Nations University Press.
MONTEITH, S. 2010. Hurricane Katrina: Five Years After Introduction. Journal of
American Studies, 44, 475-482. Accessed 15/08/2015 from
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7870815&jid=AMS&vo
lumeId=44&issueId=03&aid=7870814&bodyId=&membershipNumber=&societyETOCS
ession=&fulltextType=&fileId=
NYC DHMH 2014 Evacuation in New York City During Hurricanes Irene and Sandy Epi
Data Brief http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/epi/databrief51.pdf
NYC.GOV PlaNYC - Resiliency - Stronger Buildings [online]. Available from:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc/html/resiliency/stronger-buildings.shtml (Accessed 11
September 2015).
OBRIEN, G., OKEEFE, P., ROSE, J., WISNER, B., 2006. Climate change and disaster
management. 30, 64-80
OLORUNFEMI, F. 2009. Urban vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: key
issues and challenges in Nigeria. UGEC Viewpoints (Urbanization and Global
Environmental Change) I, 2, 35.
OLSSON, P., FOLKE, C. & BERKES, F. 2004. Adaptive Comanagement for Building
Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems. Environmental Management, 34, 75-90.
PARK, S. E., MARSHALL, N. A., JAKKU, E., DOWD, A. M., HOWDEN, S. M.,
MENDHAM, E. & FLEMING, A. 2011. Informing adaptation responses to climate
change through theories of transformation. Global Environmental Change, 22, 115-126.
PARKER, C., & BRAITHWAITE, J. 2003 Regulation. The Oxford Handbook of Legal
Studies, edited by Cane, P. and Tushnet, M. 119-45. Oxford: Oxford University Press
PELLING, M. 2011. Adaptation to climate change: from resilience to transformation,
London, London : Routledge.
PELLING, M. & BLACKBURN, S. 2014. Megacities and the coast: risk, resilience and
transformation, Routledge. London
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
POLASKY, S., CARPENTER, S. R., FOLKE, C. & KEELER, B. 2011. Decision-making
under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends in
Ecology & Evolution, 26, 398-404.
QUARANTELILLI, E.L. 1998 What is a disaster? Perspectives on the question. New
York, London: Routledge.
ROBERTS,S. 2010. Listening to (and Saving) the World’s Languages The New York
Times April 29 Accessed 18/08/2015 from
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/29/nyregion/29lost.html?_r=0
RODIMA-TAYLOR, D., OLWIG, M. F. & CHHETRI, N. 2012. Adaptation as
innovation, innovation as adaptation: An institutional approach to climate
change.(Report). Applied Geography, 33, 107.
ROSENZWEIG, C. & SOLECKI, W. 2014. Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in
New York: Lessons from a first-responder city. Global Environmental Change, 28, 395408. Accessed 8/7/2015 from
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000910
RYAN, P. 2009. The Adaptive Co-Management Process: an Initial Synthesis of
Representative Models and Influential Variables. Ecology and Society, 14.
SOLECKI, W., LEICHENKO, R. & O’BRIEN, K. 2011. Climate change adaptation
strategies and disaster risk reduction in cities: connections, contentions, and synergies.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3, 135-141.
SILVERMAN, D. 1993. Beginning Research. Interpreting Qualitative Data. Methods for
Analysing Talk, Text and Interaction. London: Sage.
SILVERMAN, R. 2012 Why New York City Is the Worst Place for a Hurricane
Underwater canyon, high buildings, more make city vulnerable.
National Geographic News November 03 Accessed 01/09/2015 from
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/11/121101-new-york-city-sandyhurricane-bight-science-environment-nation/
SMITH, M. S., HORROCKS, L., HARVEY, A. & HAMILTON, C. 2011. Rethinking
adaptation for a 4°C world. Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and
Engineering Sciences, 369, 196-216.
STEVE, C., CARL, F., ANN, K., LANCE, G., BRIAN, W. & LISEN, S. 2006. A Handful
of Heuristics and Some Propositions for Understanding Resilience in Social-Ecological
Systems. Ecology and Society, 11.
SUBAIYA, S., VELASQUEZ, A., MOUSSAVI, C. & STILLMAN, J. 2014. A rapid
needs assessment of the rockaway peninsula in New York city after hurricane sandy and
the relationship of socioeconomic status to recovery.(Report)(Author abstract). The
American Journal of Public Health, 104, 632.
TAU, B. 2015. Obama to Say Hurricane Katrina Was, in Part, a Man-Made Disaster.
[online] The Wall Street Journal. [Accessed 27 Aug. 2015] from :
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-to-say-hurricane-katrina-was-in-part-a-man-madedisaster-1440669600?cb=logged0.24305670494235376
TIERNEY, K. 2012. Disaster Governance: Social, Political, and Economic Dimensions.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37, 341-363.
TERTIUS, C. 1987. Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census.
Lewiston: St Davids University Press
TOMPKINS, E. L., ADGER, W. N., BOYD, E., NICHOLSON-COLE, S.,
WEATHERHEAD, K. & ARNELL, N. 2010. Observed adaptation to climate change: UK
evidence of transition to a well-adapting society. Global Environmental Change, 20, 627635.
TONGCO, M.D.C. 2007. Purposive sampling as a tool for informant selection,
Ethnobotany Research & Applications Vol.5. 147-158.
TRENBERTH, K. E., FASULLO, J. T. & SHEPHERD, T. G. 2015. Attribution of climate
extreme events. Nature Climate Change, 5, 725-730.
Tsikoudakis, M. (2012) 'ERM can help cities prepare for disasters But funding, politics
can hamper efforts by risk managers.(enterprise risk management)', Business Insurance,
46(23), 0013.
UMBACH, G. 2002. Teaching and Researching the History of Disasters in New York
City. International Labor and Working-Class History, 96-98.
UNDESDA. 2014. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights.
Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division, United Nations.
UNDP. 2013. Issue Brief: Disaster Risk Governance. Bureau for Crisis Prevention and
Recovery, UNDP. [Accessed 15/7/2015] from:
http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/crisis%20prevention/disaster/Issue_brief_
disaster_risk_reduction_governance_11012013.pdf
UNISDR (2015). Linkages between population dynamics, urbanization processes and
disaster risks: a regional vision of Latin [online] Available at:
http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/31104 [Accessed 14 August 2015].
UN Urban Agglomerations 2007. New York, United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, Population Division (2008)
UITTO, J. I. 1998. The geography of disaster vulnerability in megacities: A theoretical
framework. Applied Geography, 18, 7-16.
US Census Bureau, Population Division. 2015. Division Annual Estimates of the Resident
Population for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More, Ranked by July 1, 2014
Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 Accessed on 08/08/2015 from
VAN AALST, M. K. 2006. The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters.
Disasters, 30, 5-18.
WAGNER, M., CHHETRI, N. & STURM, M. 2014. Adaptive capacity in light of
Hurricane Sandy: The need for policy engagement. Applied Geography, 50, 15-23.
Jaydie Ortiz
K1454060
WAMSLER, C., BRINK, E. & RIVERA, C. 2013. Planning for climate change in urban
areas: from theory to practice. Journal of Cleaner Production, 50, 68-81.
WATTS, M. J. & BOHLE, H. G. 1993. The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of
hunger and famine. Progress in Human Geography, 17, 43-67.
WENZEL, F., BENDIMERAD, F. & SINHA, R. 2007. Megacities – megarisks. Natural
Hazards, 42, 481-491.
WISE, R. M., FAZEY, I., SMITH, M. S., PARK, S. E., EAKIN, H. C., VAN
GARDEREN, E. R. M. A. & CAMPBELL, B. 2014. Reconceptualising adaptation to
climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Global Environmental
Change, 28, 325.
WISNER, B. 2003. At Risk Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters,
London, London : Routledge.
WOOD, R.C. 1961 New York: 1400 Governments, Cambridge (Mass.), Harvard
University Press
ZARCADOOLAS, C., BOYER, J., KRISHNASWAMI, A. & ROTHENBERG, A. 2007.
GIS Maps to Communicate Emergency Preparedness: How Useable Are They for Inner
City Residents? Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management,