Welsh Assembly Government Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation (BRO) in the ‘Intensive Action Pilot Area’ (IAPA), South-west Wales Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Report no: C1314/V6/Doc.1 This report has been prepared for the Welsh Assembly Government in accordance with the terms and conditions of appointment for Welsh Assembly Government dated March 2008. Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 2 Legislation and Policy Context................................................................................ 3 2.1 Nature Conservation Legislation .................................................................................. 3 2.1.1 The Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC).........................................................................3 2.1.2 The Conservation (Natural Habitats) Regulations (1994)........................................3 2.1.3 The Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981) .................................................................3 2.1.4 Countryside and Rights of Way (CRoW) Act (2000)................................................4 2.1.5 Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act (2006) ..........................4 2.2 Biodiversity Action Plans .............................................................................................. 4 2.2.1 United Kingdom Biodiversity Action Plan.................................................................4 2.2.2 Local Biodiversity Action Plans ................................................................................5 3 Impact Assessment Methodology ........................................................................... 6 3.1 Background to the Assessment.................................................................................... 6 3.2 Valuation ...................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Impact Characterisation ............................................................................................... 7 3.4 Assessing Significance................................................................................................. 8 3.5 Residual Effects ........................................................................................................... 8 4 Scoping & Valuation ................................................................................................. 9 4.1 Review of Ecological Resources .................................................................................. 9 4.2 Activities and Impacts of the BRO................................................................................ 9 4.2.1 Activities ...................................................................................................................9 4.2.2 Ecological Changes and Resulting Impacts.............................................................9 4.2.3 Future Baseline and Cumulative Impacts ..............................................................10 4.3 Setting the Zone of Influence ..................................................................................... 11 4.4 Selection of Potential Key Ecological Receptors........................................................ 12 5 Possible Ecological Changes as a Result of Removing Badgers from the IAPA13 5.1 Potential Consequences of Badger Removal............................................................. 13 5.2 Revised Assessment of Ecological Receptors ........................................................... 17 5.2.1 Designated sites.....................................................................................................18 5.2.2 Birds .......................................................................................................................19 5.2.3 Mammals................................................................................................................20 5.3 Summary of Ecological Receptors ............................................................................. 22 6 Baseline Conditions................................................................................................ 25 6.1 Methodology............................................................................................................... 25 6.1.1 Desk Study.............................................................................................................25 6.1.2 Consultations .........................................................................................................26 6.2 Key Ecological Receptors .......................................................................................... 26 6.2.1 Determining current and future baseline conditions...............................................27 6.2.2 Baseline conditions for the Key Ecological Receptors...........................................28 Page ii Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 7 Impact Assessment and Options for Mitigation................................................... 33 7.1 Generic Impact Parameters ....................................................................................... 33 7.2 Key Ecological Receptors .......................................................................................... 34 7.2.1 Designated sites.....................................................................................................34 7.2.2 Species ..................................................................................................................35 7.3 Other Ecological Receptors........................................................................................ 40 7.4 Summary of impacts on Ecological Receptors........................................................... 42 8 Recommendations for Monitoring......................................................................... 44 8.1 Rationale .................................................................................................................... 44 8.2 Monitoring proposals .................................................................................................. 44 9 Conclusions and Consequences for Decision-Making........................................ 48 10 References............................................................................................................... 50 Figures ................................................................................................................................ 55 Appendices......................................................................................................................... 57 Page iii Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 1 Introduction In early 2009 the Welsh Assembly Government commissioned a project to assess the potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation (BRO) in areas of Pembrokeshire, Cardigan and Carmarthenshire (identified as the Intensive Action Pilot Area (IAPA)). This document presents an assessment of the likely impacts of the BRO on biodiversity, in order to aid the Minister to discharge her obligations under s.40 of the Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act 2006. The document should be read in conjunction with the Habitats Directive Screening Report, which addresses the specific impacts of the BRO on European designated sites (or Natura 2000 sites). In compiling this report, current knowledge concerning the ecological consequences of culling badgers has been reviewed, and applied where possible to the IAPA. The report focuses on sites and species protected and/or identified as important on a European, UK, national, regional or local level. Likely impacts on these sites and species are assessed and options to mitigate or compensate for potentially significant effects are discussed. In addition, the report includes recommendations for monitoring the status of species or sites upon which the likelihood of measurable impacts are equivocal. The assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the guidance set out in the Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) Guidelines for Ecological Impact Assessment (2006) (‘the IEEM Guidelines’), in order to provide the Welsh Assembly Government, with “clear and concise information about the likely significant ecological effects associated with the project” (IEEM, 2006) The baseline conditions against which the likely significant effects are to be assessed are the environmental conditions in the absence of the badger removal operation (BRO), within and surrounding the proposed IAPA over the lifetime of the project. This report has been prepared by a specialist ecological consultancy. Section 2 of the report presents the legislation and policy context that underpins the impact assessment, and within which the BRO will be carried out. Section 3 summarises the assessment methodology that has been used, and Section 4 describes the scoping and valuation process. The possible ecological changes that could arise as a result of badger removal are discussed in Section 5, along with a summary of the ecological receptors that are taken forward for detailed assessment. Section 6 presents the baseline conditions for each of these receptors, and the detailed characterisation of impacts upon them is reported in Section 7, along with proposals for mitigation. Page 1 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Section 8 presents recommendations for a comprehensive monitoring scheme. The conclusions of the assessment are summarised in Section 9. Table 1 in Appendix 1 lists the designated sites in and around the IAPA. Appendix 2 lists the species for which desk study information was obtained. The maximum extent of the IAPA and the desk study data are presented in map form on Figures 1-3. Page 2 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 2 Legislation and Policy Context 2.1 Nature Conservation Legislation 2.1.1 The Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) The Habitats Directive exists to promote the maintenance of biodiversity across Europe. The Directive provides for the creation of a network of protected areas across the continent, and lists the habitats and species of importance in a Europe-wide context. 2.1.2 The Conservation (Natural Habitats) Regulations (1994) The Habitats Directive is implemented in the UK through the Habitats Regulations. The Regulations provide for the designation of both Special Protection Areas (SPAs) and Special Areas for Conservation (SACs), as part of the European Natura 2000 network. A separate document has been prepared which reports the implications of the BRO for Natura 2000 sites (see the HDA Screening Report). 2.1.3 The Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981) The Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended), is the principal mechanism for the legislative protection of wildlife in Britain. The Act provides for the designation of Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), which are selected as the best national examples of habitat types, sites with notable species and sites of geological importance. The 17 Schedules of the Act cover the protection of wildlife, including birds, some other animals and plants. Schedules relevant to the ecology of the IAPA and surrounding area are listed in the table below. Table 2.1: Identification of Ecological Receptors. Schedule Subject 1-4 Wild birds 5 Certain species of animal (protection described in Section 9 of the Act) 8 Plants and fungi 9 Plants and animals to which section 14 applies Water voles (Arvicola terrestris) have recently been afforded ‘full’ protection under this Act. Several species of birds, other animals, and plants covered by the Wildlife and Countryside Act have been recorded within the IAPA and surrounding area and are discussed in more detail in Section 6. Page 3 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 2.1.4 Countryside and Rights of Way (CRoW) Act (2000) The CRoW Act 2000 confers greater protection to SSSIs and introduces the offence of ‘reckless disturbance’ to species listed in some Schedules of the Wildlife and Countryside Act (see above). The Act also requires Government Departments to have regard to biodiversity and conservation; habitats and species of principal importance are listed under Section 74 of the Act, for which conservation steps should be taken or promoted. 2.1.5 Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act (2006) The NERC Act places a duty upon public bodies to consider enhancement of biodiversity within all of their actions. Species of principal importance for the conservation of biological diversity in Wales are listed under Section 42 of the NERC act. In addition, this Act provides for those species identified within the UKBAP and the relevant LBAPs to be considered as biodiversity conservation priorities (see below). 2.2 Biodiversity Action Plans Biodiversity Action Plans (BAPs) are strategies to conserve, protect and enhance habitats and species. The United Kingdom Biodiversity Action Plan (UKBAP) sets out a national strategy for the conservation of biodiversity in Britain (see section 2.2.1 below). Regional BAPs and Local BAPs (LBAPs) have also been produced to address biodiversity issues specific to particular areas in the UK (see section 2.2.2 below). 2.2.1 United Kingdom Biodiversity Action Plan The UKBAP is the UK Government's response to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) signed in 1992. It describes the UK's biological resources and sets out a detailed plan for their protection (JNCC, 2007). Habitat types and species are listed within the UKBAP with specific targets for their conservation. The UKBAP now includes 1149 priority species and 65 priority habitats. Species Action Plans (SAPs) and Habitat Action Plans (HAPs) have been produced for a number of these species. The Action Plans and Targets from the UKBAP which are relevant to the IAPA include: hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus); water vole; otter (Lutra lutra); brown hare (Lepus europaeus); polecat (Mustela putorius); pine marten (Martes martes); red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris); dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius); harvest mouse (Micromys minutus) lapwing (Vanellus vanellus); skylark (Alauda arvensis); tree pipit (Anthus trivialis); nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus); cuckoo (Cuculus canorus); chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax); curlew (Numenius arquata); reed bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus); woodlark (Lullula arborea); wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix); grey partridge (Perdix perdix); grasshopper warbler (Locustella naevia) and song thrush (Turdus philomelos). Page 4 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 2.2.2 Local Biodiversity Action Plans The local Biodiversity Action Plans relevant to the IAPA are the LBAPs for Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion. Pembrokeshire Biodiversity Action Plan The Biodiversity Action Plan for Pembrokeshire covers 41 habitats, including HAPs for lowland meadow, lowland heathland, cereal field margins, improved grassland and dry acid grassland. The Pembrokeshire LBAP also covers 110 species (including vertebrates, invertebrates and plants), with SAPs for choughs, farmland birds (particularly lapwing, skylark and song thrush), and a number of other species including bats, dormouse, water vole, brown hare, otter and butterflies. Carmarthenshire Biodiversity Action Plan The Biodiversity Action Plan for Carmarthenshire covers eight habitat groups, including HAPs for lowland grassland and heathland, upland habitats, woodland, farmland, brownfield/urban sites, wetlands, freshwater, coastal and marine habitats. The Carmarthenshire LBAP identifies target species within habitat plans wherever possible. However, there are individual action plans for marsh fritillary (Euphydryas aurinia), brown hairstreak (Thecla betulae), Deptford pink (Dianthus armeria), smallflowered catchfly (Silene gallica), lapwing, tree sparrow (Passer montanus), barn owl (Tyto alba), nightjar, bats, dormouse, red squirrel, hedgehog, water vole and otter. Ceredigion Biodiversity Action Plan The Biodiversity Action Plan for Ceredigion contains four UK BAP habitats, comprising upland mixed ash woodland, upland oak woodland, wet woodland and roadside verges. The Ceredigion LBAP has SAPs for black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), brown hare, chough and hornet robberfly (Asilus crabroniformis). Page 5 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 3 Impact Assessment Methodology 3.1 Background to the Assessment In accordance with the IEEM Guidelines, a comprehensive assessment has been carried out which attempts to collate all of the existing baseline information and predict all of the significant effects of the BRO on Key Ecological Receptors. In addition, measures have been developed to address the legislative and policy requirements associated with those protected species for which significant effects are not expected, but which nevertheless warrant consideration. 3.2 Valuation One of the aims of this report is to describe the likely impacts of the BRO on the full range of ecological resources, in general terms, in and around the IAPA. However, in accordance with the relevant current guidance on Environmental Impact Assessment, it is considered inappropriate to attempt to investigate in detail all potential ecological issues in relation to the BRO. Instead, the intention is to focus the detailed assessment on those activities that could potentially generate significant ecological effects on ‘Key Ecological Receptors’. In order to determine the likelihood of a significant ecological effect, it is first necessary to identify whether a receptor is sufficiently valuable for a significant effect upon it to be material in decision making. To achieve this, where possible, animal species and their populations have been valued on the basis of a combination of their rarity, status and distribution, using contextual information where it exists. A desk-based review was carried out to broadly identify the ecological resources in the local area. This, in combination with a review of the likely implications of badger removal, was used to identify the zones of influence of the BRO (i.e. the areas over which the badger control operation could have an effect). Once these were established, a more detailed desk study was carried out in order to determine the value of the ecological resources that could be affected. The following geographic frame of reference has been used to determine the value of ecological receptors within the BRO: ‘International’; UK ’National’; ’Regional’; ‘County’; ‘District/Borough’; and ‘Parish/ Neighbourhood’. Given the scale of the IAPA, for the purposes of this assessment it is proposed that only those species classified at ‘County’ level and above are considered to be sufficiently valuable for a significant effect upon them to be material in decision making. Only ecological receptors equivalent to or greater than ‘County’ value have therefore been included within the detailed assessment as ecological receptors of ‘key’ nature conservation importance (Key Ecological Receptors). Page 6 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Although certain species and habitats may not constitute Key Ecological Receptors based upon their nature conservation value, and therefore would not form part of the detailed assessment, they may still warrant consideration during the design and mitigation of the BRO on the basis of their legal protection or their implications for environmental (and related) policies and plans. Therefore, consideration has separately been given to these ‘Other Ecological Receptors’. The results of the ecological valuation process are presented in Section 4 (Scoping and Valuation); this summarises the results of the desk study and presents which of the resources have been identified as ‘Key Ecological Receptors’, which are considered as ‘Other Ecological Receptors’, and which have been ‘scoped-out’ of the assessment altogether. It is important to highlight that the selection of Key Ecological Receptors has been informed by an assessment not only of their nature conservation value but also of the likely impacts upon them. Thus, a species of particular nature conservation importance will not be included as a key receptor if the impacts upon that receptor will not be significant. In the context of this assessment, a Key Ecological Receptor is defined as a population of a species, an assemblage or a site that is (a) of County importance or greater, and (b) might be affected significantly as a consequence of the BRO. 3.3 Impact Characterisation Once the ecological resources within this part of Wales have been identified and valued (in order to determine which could possibly be material in the decision-making process), it is then necessary to investigate potential impacts on those receptors in order to understand how they might be affected by the BRO. An initial impact assessment was therefore undertaken on the basis of the initial valuation of ecological receptors (following the initial broad review of desk study information) in order to determine whether or not any significant impacts were likely. This assessment was based on an understanding of the likely activities associated with the IAPA, the ecological changes that could be predicted as a result of these activities, and the area over which such effects might be experienced by different receptors (i.e. the zones of influence). Only those ecological resources that it was considered could experience significant effects from the BRO (i.e. impacts that could adversely affect the favourable conservation status of a species’ local population), and were identified as being of sufficient value to be material to decision-making (i.e. of ‘County’ level of importance or above) were classified as potential Key Ecological Receptors. The IEEM guidelines suggest a number of factors that should be considered in an impact assessment. These are: whether an impact is likely to be positive or negative, the magnitude/extent of an impact, the duration of an impact, whether an impact is permanent or reversible, and the timing and frequency of any impact. Page 7 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 For each effect, the likelihood that it will occur as predicted will be described on a four-point scale, as set out in the IEEM Guidelines: Certain/nearcertain: probability estimated at 95% chance or higher Probably: probability estimated above 50%, but below 95%; Unlikely: probability estimated above 5%, but below 50%; Extremely unlikely: probability estimated at less than 5%. In practice, some of the impact pathways were so unclear and/or the evidence base upon which to base predictions so lacking that there was no basis upon which to make a judgement; in these cases impacts were classified as ‘uncertain’. 3.4 Assessing Significance The significance of an impact is determined on the basis of an analysis of the factors that characterise the effect, irrespective of the value of the receptor. IEEM define the significance of an impact as follows: “an ecologically significant impact is one which is defined as an impact (negative or positive) on the integrity of a defined site or ecosystem and/or the conservation status of habitats or species within a given geographical area.” (IEEM, 2006) Once a potential significant impact has been identified (i.e. the direct or indirect effects of the BRO were considered likely to affect the integrity/favourable conservation status of a potential Key Ecological Receptor), the value of the receptor has then been used to help determine the geographical scale at which the impact is significant. 3.5 Residual Effects Residual effects describe any significant impacts that remain after mitigation measures (if appropriate) have been identified. These residual effects have again been interpreted in the context of the geographic scale at which the receptor they affect has been valued (as described above). Page 8 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 4 Scoping & Valuation The process of scoping, as described by IEEM (2006), is an iterative one. The findings of the initial desk study and review of relevant literature have refined the scope of the assessment. 4.1 Review of Ecological Resources The first stage of the scoping/assessment process comprised a broad desk study review of the ecological resources in the general vicinity of the BRO, focusing on designated sites and records of protected species or other species of conservation concern that may be affected by the removal of badgers from the local ecosystem. 4.2 Activities and Impacts of the BRO 4.2.1 Activities The maximum extent of the IAPA is indicated on Figure 1. In addition to the area over which the BRO will take place, any potential effects and their significance will largely be dictated by the duration of the culling operation. Changes in populations in response to badger removal can be expected to become more pronounced the longer the local badger population is maintained at artificially low levels within the IAPA. For the purposes of this assessment it has been assumed that culling will take place over a five year period, similar to that of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) conducted by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The method of badger removal will be in accordance with The Tuberculosis Eradication (Wales) Order 2009 under the Animal Health Act 1981. It will thus involve either capturing badgers at the setts using cage traps and then humanely dispatching the animals using appropriate firearms or lethal injection, or shooting without trapping. The details of sett selection, trap placement, avoidance of disturbance, trap checking, and methods of dispatch are provided in the Welsh Assembly Government Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). These documents have been prepared specifically to ensure that the protocols adopted are as sensitive as possible and are consistently implemented across the whole IAPA. 4.2.2 Ecological Changes and Resulting Impacts Ecosystems contain assemblages of different species, in differing proportions and occupying a variety of niches. In this regard, a predator such as the badger may influence the abundance and behaviour of the species that it preys upon, and the availability of prey may influence predator numbers. In addition, there may be competition between predators that prey on similar species, and there are many examples of how carnivores with a larger body size can limit the abundance, breeding performance and survival of smaller competing predators (Donadio and Page 9 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Buskirk, 2006). However, the impact of predation on prey populations varies widely, and in some cases predators may have little or no effect on prey populations. Clearly, relationships within an ecological community can be complex, and ecologists describe these networks of interactions as food webs. The interdependent characteristics of food webs mean that changes in one component (a species or an interaction) may have implications for many other components of the system. These may be simple, such as an increase in prey numbers in response to reduced predation when a predator is removed. However, in many instances the consequences of changes in one component of the system may be less obvious, such as when a trophic cascade1 occurs, or when the removal of one predator reduces the competitive pressure on another (meso-predator release) which may subsequently increase in numbers and so exert more pressure on prey populations. The removal of predators such as badgers from ecosystems has been observed to cause trophic cascades, meso-predator release and declines in some species (reviewed in Trewby, 2009). Consequently, it is widely acknowledged that predators such as badgers can play an important role in maintaining structure and stability in ecological communities. In the context of this assessment, therefore, the potential effects (in broad terms) that could occur as a result of badger removal include alterations in the abundance and local distribution of badger prey species (and other species they might possibly affect directly, e.g. commensal species2); alterations in the abundance and local distribution of badger competitors; consequential alterations in the abundance and local distribution of prey and competitors of these species; possible effects on vegetation structure and plant community composition as a result of these various changes; and consequential impacts on other species and groups as a result of these habitat changes. This is dealt with in more detail in Section 5. In addition, it is conceivable that the trapping activities associated with the BRO could have direct impacts on individuals of non-target species. 4.2.3 Future Baseline and Cumulative Impacts An essential part of the impact assessment process involves the establishment of the baseline conditions for the assessment. The existing situation has been determined by reviewing the relevant scientific literature and the ecological information collected during the desk study (presented in 1 A trophic cascade refers to the indirect impact of predators on the food of their prey. For example, where a predator limits prey populations, it indirectly reduces their impact on the animals or plants on which they feed. 2 Species which derive a benefit from a relationship with another species, where the host species is unaffected. Page 10 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Section 6). However, it is anticipated that the BRO will continue for approximately 5 years, and studies of re-colonisation rates (Tuyttens et al., 2000; Cheeseman et al., 1993) suggest that badger numbers would be likely to recover to pre-culling levels (assuming that they were allowed to do so) within approximately 5 to 10 years. It is anticipated that any associated ecological changes would return to an equilibrium over a similar period, perhaps with a ‘lag’ of up to another 5 to 10 years. Thus impacts associated with the IAPA could extend for somewhere between 10 and 25 years. In order to define an appropriate baseline, it is therefore necessary to predict the degree to which the ecological resources in the local area would be expected to change in the absence of an operation to remove badgers from the IAPA. This ‘future baseline’ is influenced by a number of factors, in particular existing trends associated with the species in question, climate change and the cumulative impacts from any other projects in the IAPA or surrounding area. The latter can be defined as ‘the predicted changes in the baseline condition of a particular ecological resource resulting from incremental changes caused by other present or reasonably foreseeable actions together with the project under assessment’. Predicting the future baseline of key ecological receptors within the IAPA is problematic and any such estimates must be interpreted with caution. To accurately predict the abundance of a key ecological receptor, it is necessary to know its current abundance and its status (i.e increasing, decreasing or stable) as well as the current rate of change. Where possible therefore the best available data sources have been used to estimate future baselines, but it is essential that these are viewed with their limitations in mind. The future baseline estimates for the selected Key Ecological Receptors are discussed for each receptor in Sections 6 and 7. 4.3 Setting the Zone of Influence The zone of influence of the BRO has been reviewed on an iterative basis and reflects the extent to which the removal of badgers from the IAPA is predicted to affect ecological resources in the area, both directly and indirectly. For designated sites a precautionary approach was adopted and sites within a broad geographical area have been considered (see Figure 1 and Appendix 1). Consideration of the zones of influence has underpinned the selection of Key Ecological Receptors, set out below and in Section 5. An ‘effect area’ that encompasses, in geographic terms, all of the possible ecological changes discussed in Section 5, is defined in Sections 6 and 7. For more sedentary species, the zone of influence will be limited to this area, whereas for more mobile species, the zone of influence encompasses all those elements of the populations in question that could be affected by the predicted ecological changes in and around the IAPA. Where appropriate, the relevant zone of influence is highlighted separately for Page 11 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 each of the Key Ecological Receptors that have been selected (see Sections 6 and 7). 4.4 Selection of Potential Key Ecological Receptors Having broadly identified the ecological resources within the local area and the zone of influence of the BRO, an investigation was carried out to identify ecological receptors that might be significantly affected by badger removal. This involved an updated desk study, which focussed on the relevant zones of influence, in parallel with the review of expected ecological changes set out in detail in Section 5. The results of the desk study were then used to inform the initial valuation of ecological resources. This identified that a number of species that could potentially be affected by the removal of badgers were of nature conservation value (as defined in Section 3.2) and therefore represented potential Key Ecological Receptors. Further species were identified that warranted consideration on the basis of their policy or legislative status, or as a result of their ecological significance (e.g. as prey species), and these are hereafter referred to as ‘Other Receptors’. An initial list of these species and any relevant legislation is provided in Appendix 2. The locations of records for breeding birds, bird sightings and mammals are illustrated in Figures 2a, 2b and 3 respectively. Those designated sites also considered as potential Key Ecological Receptors, on the basis of their location and species composition are highlighted in Appendix 1. These lists of ‘target’ sites and species were then reviewed and refined following a more detailed analysis of the potential ecological changes associated with the BRO; this process is described in Section 5. Page 12 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 5 Possible Ecological Changes as a Result of Removing Badgers from the IAPA 5.1 Potential Consequences of Badger Removal This section reviews and summarises the scientific literature concerning the impact of badgers on other UK species, and the potential consequences of removing badgers from the particular ecosystem in this part of Wales. This section draws largely on the results of the Defra project “Ecological Consequences of Removing Badgers from an Ecosystem” as this is the only study on the subject to have been undertaken and published in the UK (Defra, 2007). This study was, however, far from comprehensive, and so is unlikely to have identified all the significant ecological effects of badger removal during the RBCT. In the present report we have attempted to highlight potential differences between conditions within the IAPA and those associated with the RBCT wherever possible, and discuss the potential implications in terms of the subsequent impact assessment. In general terms, the IAPA contains a greater proportion of permanent grassland, more upland habitat types, and less arable land than did the parts of the UK where the majority of the studies associated with the RBCT were carried out. Nevertheless, it is considered likely that most of the key underlying ecological relationships, for example involving trophic interactions between badgers, foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) would be broadly similar. Foxes Owing to their similar dietary and denning requirements, badgers and foxes are potential competitors. However, despite sharing many common food items, they each specialise on different dietary components. For example, although both species consume earthworms and lagomorphs (rabbits and hares), a recent study showed that, in terms of biomass, the former were far more important to badgers and the latter were most important to foxes (Trewby, 2009). Nevertheless, as both predators are present in similar habitats and are most active at night, foxes and badgers frequently come into close contact. As badgers tend to be dominant in any aggressive interactions, they may potentially ‘interfere’ with the ability of foxes to forage in a particular place and time. Foxes may also live in very close proximity to badgers, even occupying part of an active badger sett (Lloyd, 1980). For the most part the two species are generally tolerant of one another, although badgers have been known to predate fox cubs (Macdonald et al., 2004; Neal and Cheeseman, 1996). Foxes generally prefer to occupy burrows created by other species (Lloyd, 1980; Weber, 1982), have a preference for dens with several entrance holes (Meia and Weber, 1992) and will use more than one den site whilst raising cubs (Reynolds et al., 1993). Consequently, a reduction in badger abundance could increase the availability of disused badger setts as breeding sites for foxes. This may be a significant benefit for foxes as appropriate sites may be in limited supply and their construction is likely to be energetically demanding. Page 13 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 As badgers are generally dominant in interactions with foxes, they may have the potential to limit the abundance, breeding performance and survival of the latter by restricting access to resources. Consequently, a reduction in badger density might be expected to benefit fox populations. Experimental evidence to support this prediction was recorded during the RBCT. During the two years after badger culling commenced, fox density increased by 57% in culled areas, contrasting with a 27% decrease in unculled areas (Trewby et al., 2008). Fox densities increased soon after badger culling commenced, and remained consistently higher for the remaining 4 years, whilst badger density was suppressed by ‘follow-up’ culls. It was estimated that the increase in fox density precipitated by badger culling was of the order of 1.6 to 2.3 foxes per km2 (Trewby et al., 2008). The results also indicated that fox densities increased more markedly where badger removal had been more complete. The reasons for these responses are unclear, as neither fox diet (Trewby 2009) nor fox occupation of disused badger setts (Defra, 2007) was observed to change substantially in response to badger culling. The response of the fox population to the cessation of badger culling is not known. Smaller mammals including rodents and lagomorphs are important components of the diet of British foxes (Reynolds and Aebischer 1991; Reynolds and Tapper 1995; Baker and Harris 2003; Webbon et al., 2006; Trewby, 2009). If fox predation limits these prey populations (at least in certain circumstances), then they might be expected to be influenced by changes in fox abundance (see Lagomorphs below). Hedgehogs Badgers are important predators of hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and also prey on similar invertebrate species (particularly earthworms and beetles) (Neal and Cheeseman, 1996; Reeve, 1994). Consequently, whilst avoiding areas where badgers are active, hedgehogs will also be excluded from the most productive habitats, with potential consequences for reproductive performance and survival. As a result of this relationship (called intra-guild predation (IGP); see Polis et al., 1989) predators may exert a particularly strong influence over prey populations through the combined effects of predation and competition. There is experimental evidence from field studies that badgers may regulate hedgehog populations (Doncaster, 1992; Doncaster 1994). During the RBCT, hedgehogs were found only rarely in the rural sites that were surveyed, but in contrast were relatively frequently observed in amenity areas in and around villages, such as football or cricket pitches (Young et al. 2006). Such areas may constitute refuges for hedgehogs, where they are less at risk from predation. However, even in amenity areas, there were fewer hedgehogs at locations where there were more badger setts in the surrounding countryside. Hedgehog densities in the amenity areas increased by more than 100% during the four years following the onset of badger culling. This contrasted with the situation in areas with no badger culling, which experienced a slight decline in hedgehog numbers over the same period (Defra, 2007). Page 14 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Other mammalian predators It is difficult to predict with any degree of certainty what the net effect might be of badger removal on the abundance and distribution of polecats, stoats (Mustela erminea) and weasels (Mustela nivalis). The potential issues associated with bird and lagomorph predation are discussed above. However, the situation may be further complicated by other elements of competition and intra-guild predation associated with foxes. Given the greater dietary overlaps, the balance of probabilities suggest that these species would, overall, be more likely to be adversely affected by increases in fox numbers, rather than to benefit from a reduction in badger numbers. Nevertheless, no scientific data is currently available to support or refute this prediction. Lagomorphs Badgers will prey on young lagomorphs, with rabbits occurring frequently in the diet under some circumstances, but leverets are relatively uncommon prey (Neal and Cheeseman, 1996). Young rabbits appear to be taken by digging out the nest. Given this prey selection, a reduction in badger abundance might be expected to release lagomorphs from this predation pressure, potentially allowing rabbit populations in particular to increase. However, this is a largely speculative scenario as there is no evidence that badger predation limits rabbit numbers. Another possible mechanism that could allow rabbit populations to increase in the face of a reduction in badger abundance, is the associated increase in disused setts, which could provide extra breeding sites for rabbits. Both rabbits and brown hares are more commonly predated by foxes than by badgers (Reynolds and Aebischer 1991; Reynolds and Tapper 1995; Baker and Harris 2003; Webbon et al., 2006; Trewby, 2009), and it is via effects on fox abundance that badger culling may be most likely to affect lagomorphs. Studies of rabbit predation by foxes provide some evidence of the potential for limitation (e.g. Trout et al., 2000) but this may only be possible at lower prey densities (see Pech et al., 1992). There is, however, more compelling evidence that hare populations may be vulnerable to fox predation (Reynolds and Tapper, 1995) which may limit their distribution and abundance (Vaughan et al., 2003; Lindstrom et al., 1994). Rabbits in particular are an important prey species for other native carnivores such as polecats, stoats and weasels. Any reduction in rabbit abundance brought about by increased predation pressure from foxes could therefore potentially adversely affect these species. Although, equally, the removal of a competitor such as the badger may enable the smaller mustelids to exploit a lagomorph resource to a greater extent than is possible while competing with the badger. Surveys carried out during the RBCT did not detect any significant effects on rabbit or hare populations in response to badger culling (Trewby 2009), despite the confirmed increase in fox densities. However, this does not exclude the possibility of consequences for their populations in different areas of the country, where the structure of the animal community may differ. In the RBCT areas where lagomorphs and foxes were monitored, rabbits were almost an order of magnitude more abundant than hares, Page 15 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 therefore the presence of such abundant fox prey may have significantly buffered hares from the effects of fox predation. Hence, for example, if fox numbers were to increase in response to badger removal in an area with relatively lower rabbit abundance, then the consequences for the hare population may be more significant. Ground nesting birds3 The remains of a wide variety of birds have been found in badger droppings and stomach contents (Hounsome and Delahay, 2005). However, an unknown proportion of these are likely to have been taken as carrion, and the potential impact of badgers on bird populations is unclear. There is limited anecdotal evidence that badger predation can cause significant losses of game birds, particularly eggs and chicks (e.g. Andersen, 1955). Badger predation has been implicated in localised impacts on gull and wader colonies (Oro et al., 1999; Hailey and Goutner, 2002) and has been suggested as a contributory factor in the national decline in ground nesting birds (e.g. Butler, 2003), although there is no scientific evidence to support such a claim. Badgers are opportunistic foragers with a wide diet, of which birds form only a small part (Hounsome and Delahay, 2005), so it seems likely that any significant impact on bird populations would be infrequent, highly localised and confined to ground nesting species. In such circumstances a reduction in badger density might be expected to benefit vulnerable groundnesting bird populations. However, if badger removal were to increase the abundance of foxes, hedgehogs and/or other potential predators such as stoat (Mustela erminea), weasel (Mustela nivalis) or polecat, then ground-nesting bird populations might experience higher levels of predation. A recent review (Macdonald and Bolton, 2008) concluded that nocturnal mammalian predators made the largest single contribution to the predation of wader (Charadriiformes) nests, and that in certain circumstances the level of predation was unsustainable and may be associated with declining populations. The evidence for this is far from unequivocal and changes in farming practices have also been implicated (Hounsome, 2005). The badger is a predator of ground nesting bird nests and as such its removal may simply mean that the nests that would have fallen prey to badgers are taken by other predators such as hedgehogs, foxes and smaller mustelids. Increases in fox numbers resulting from the BRO may however, have a disproportionate effect on the survival of ground nesting birds and the possibility that removing badgers could have a significant adverse impact on populations of ground nesting birds cannot be ruled out. The impact of badger culling on skylarks and meadow pipits (Anthus pratensis) was investigated during the RBCT (Defra, 2007). Both are ground nesting species that have been recorded in the diet of the badger. 3 In the context of this report the term ‘ground nesting birds’ also includes species that nest close to the ground, in situations where they are potentially at risk from a similar range of predators. Page 16 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 For four years from the start of badger culling, the abundance of meadow pipits remained relatively constant in areas where badgers were culled. However, over the same period their numbers declined significantly in corresponding areas where no badgers were removed. The same pattern was also observed in skylarks, although it was not statistically significant. One possible explanation for this is that the removal of badgers, and hence a degree of predation pressure enabled populations of meadow pipits to remain constant whilst other factors served to suppress populations in nonremoval areas. However, by chance the badger culling sites where these species were monitored had larger areas of prime habitat for these species. Hence, an equally valid interpretation is that there was a regional reduction in meadow pipit abundance due to unmeasured environmental factors, resulting in a contraction in their range towards these core areas. Therefore the role of badger removal in this observed trend should be treated with caution. It should however be noted that these results were derived from areas where fox density increased by an average of 57% in response to badger culling. Other species Badgers predate a wide variety of invertebrates, in particular earthworms. However, the extent to which this may limit prey populations is unclear. Although there is no evidence to support or refute such an effect, it seems generally unlikely as many invertebrate prey species are highly abundant and their numbers fluctuate widely with respect to climatic conditions and large-scale land-use change. These phenomena are likely for the most part to dwarf any impact of badger predation. However, invertebrate species that are already in decline (for other reasons) such as some bumblebees, could potentially be adversely affected by predation pressure. Badgers do predate bumblebees, but there is no scientific evidence that they influence their abundance. Certain species of ground beetle (Carabidae), in particular the subterranean ground beetle (Laemostenus terricola) are commonly found within spoil heaps at badger setts. A reduction in badger numbers would curtail such excavations and could therefore potentially influence the occurrence and distribution of this species, although this is considered unlikely. Also, L. terricola is frequently found in and around rabbit warrens and fox earths (Gruttke, 2000), both of which might increase in abundance in response to badger culling, and thereby ameliorate any loss of habitat resulting from the removal of badgers. 5.2 Revised Assessment of Ecological Receptors The potential Key Ecological Receptors and Other Receptors identified in Section 4.4 were reviewed, on the basis of the possible ecological changes detailed in Section 5.1, to ensure that only those for which a significant effect was possible were taken forward for detailed assessment. This process is documented, for each group of potential receptors, in the following sub-sections. Page 17 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 5.2.1 Designated sites Sites of European importance These sites are all dealt with in the Habitats Directive Assessment (HDA) Screening Report, and are not therefore discussed in detail here. Other designated sites Each of the following sites is considered to be of UK importance. Aberarth – Carreg Wylan SSSI; Cardigan Island Wildlife Trust Reserve and SSSI; and Newport Cliffs SSSI These three sites are designated, at least in part, on the basis of their use by roosting and nesting choughs and the value of their maritime, coastal and cliff-top vegetation. There is the potential that both elements could be affected although the vegetation on Cardigan Island would not be), and therefore these sites will be taken forward for detailed assessment. It is predicted that the BRO would lead to an increase in the number of foxes (see Section 5.1), which would in turn increase predation pressure on rabbits. This could result in a diminished rabbit population and hence reduced grazing, with the potential for adverse impacts on grassland habitat which is, at least in part, rabbit-maintained and extremely important for choughs (McCanch, 2000). It is likely that choughs in this part of Wales all belong to the same wider population and that individuals may move between the SPAs and the IAPA, either when foraging during the winter and/or during periods of dispersal. This is discussed in more detail in the Habitats Regulations Assessment (HDA) Screening Report. Cemaes Head Wildlife Trust Reserve and SSSI As with the sites above, Cemaes Head is designated, in part, for the small population of breeding chough it supports. It is also used by other ground nesting birds that could be affected directly by increases in fox predation (see below for a rationale and list of the species considered to be most at risk). This site will therefore also be taken forward for detailed assessment. Teifi Marshes Wildlife Trust Reserve (part of Afon Teifi SSSI); Cwm Bach (Sychpant) SSSI; Gallt Lanerch – Coed Gelli-Deg SSSI (including Llanerch Alder Carr Wildlife Trust Reserve); Gweunydd Blaencleddau SSSI; Pengelli Forest and Pant-Teg Wood NNR, SSSI and Wildlife Trust Reserve Each of these sites includes as part of its designation details species of ground nesting birds that might be affected by the BRO (see below for a rationale and list of the species considered to be most at risk). For this reason, these sites will also be taken forward for detailed assessment. Page 18 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Caeau Crug Bychan, Ty Gwyn A Lleyn Ysgaw SSSI This site is valuable as a feeding area for chough and is likely to support ground nesting birds that could be affected by the BRO. For these reasons the site will be taken forward for comprehensive assessment. Other sites On the basis of the species and habitats for which they were designated, it is considered probable that the BRO would not have any significant impacts on any of the other designated sites listed in Table 1 of Appendix 1. 5.2.2 Birds Chough The population of choughs within the zone of influence is considered likely to be of ‘National’ value. There are recent records of chough in and around the IAPA, and this part of Wales is known to be of significant importance for this species, which is rare throughout much of the remainder of the UK. The rationale for identifying a potential impact on chough is set out above. This species will therefore be considered in the comprehensive assessment. Kingfisher The kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) population within the zone of influence for this species is considered to be of ‘County/Regional’ importance and there are recent records of sightings within the IAPA. There is some anecdotal evidence that badgers occasionally dig down into kingfisher nest chambers within a river bank and predate the chicks (Cheeseman pers. comm.). It is not known whether foxes also exhibit this behaviour. However, such events are likely to be rare and therefore it is considered highly unlikely that an increase in foxes, and a decrease in badger numbers would significantly affect kingfisher breeding success or abundance. Kingfishers will therefore not be taken forward into the more comprehensive assessment. Ground nesting birds Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), cuckoo (Cuculus canorus), curlew (Numenius arquata), merlin (Falco columbarius), skylark (Alauda arvensis), song thrush (Turdus philomelos), reed bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus), nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus), woodlark (Lullula arborea), wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix), grey partridge (Perdix perdix), grasshopper warbler (Locustella naevia) and tree pipit (Anthus trivialis), all nest on or close to the ground and are therefore considered to be at potential risk from predators such as badgers and foxes amongst others. This assemblage of species is considered likely, within the zone of influence, to be of ‘County’ importance, and there are recent records of most of these species within the IAPA. However, it should be noted that there are no recent breeding records of some of these species (lapwing, curlew, merlin, nightjar and woodlark). If present lapwing and curlew populations could be of national (Wales) importance, given the status of these species. Given the uncertainty, the precautionary principle will be adopted, and the ground nesting bird assemblage will therefore be Page 19 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 considered as a Key Ecological Receptor in the more comprehensive assessment. 5.2.3 Mammals Water vole The water vole population within the zone of influence is considered likely to be of ‘County/Regional’ importance and there are recent records of this species within the IAPA. However, water voles are unlikely to be significantly affected by the ecological consequences of the BRO and will therefore not be taken forward for further consideration. The rationale for this is that (a) any variations in predation pressure associated with the changes predicted in Section 5.1 would not be expected to affect water vole populations since they tend not to be taken frequently by foxes; (b) no changes are predicted with regards to mink (Mustela vison), the water vole’s principal predator; and (c) no changes are predicted to the habitats upon which water voles depend. Dormouse The population of this species within the zone of influence is considered likely to be of ‘County’ importance and there is only one record from within the IAPA. Dormice are unlikely to be significantly affected by the ecological changes associated with the BRO, since they tend not to be predated by foxes (or hedgehogs) and their habitats are unlikely to be affected; this species will therefore not be taken forward for further consideration. Grey squirrel Although there are recent records of this species within the IAPA, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) is an alien species in the UK and as such is not considered to be of any conservation value in its own right. However, they are significant competitors of the native red squirrel, and are therefore to be considered as of conservation importance. As a Schedule 9 species it is illegal to release grey squirrels into the wild. A standard operating procedure will be prepared to deal with the significant chance that grey squirrels are caught as a non-target species during the BRO. This species will not be taken forward for further consideration. Rabbit There are recent records of this species within the IAPA and rabbits may be affected by changes arising from the BRO, through increased predation pressure associated with the predicted increase in fox numbers. As rabbits are of negligible conservation importance, this species has not been identified as a Key Ecological Receptor. However, given the ecological importance of the species, the likely impacts on rabbits will be assessed in more detail as an ‘Other Ecological Receptor’. Brown hare The population of this species within the zone of influence is considered likely to be of ‘Regional’ importance and there are recent records from within the IAPA. Hares could suffer increased predation from the predicted Page 20 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 rise in fox numbers during the BRO. Hares are therefore considered as a Key Ecological Receptor in the more comprehensive assessment. Hedgehog This species is considered to be of ‘County’ importance and there are recent records from within the IAPA. Hedgehog numbers are predicted to increase following the BRO due to reduced predation pressure from badgers and greater access to food resources. This species may also be of ecological significance, in particular as a predator of ground nesting birds. Hedgehogs are therefore considered as a Key Ecological Receptor in the more comprehensive assessment. Pine marten There are no records of pine marten from within or around the IAPA. The nearest recorded sighting is approximately 20 km from the IAPA boundary. Given the large home ranges occupied by this species and the difficulties inherent in detecting them (particularly when they exist at low densities), it is possible that pine marten may use parts of the IAPA, particularly the upland habitats in the vicinity of the IAPA’s southern boundary. It is likely that pine marten would be adversely affected by an increase in fox abundance through increased competition and intra-guild predation. However in the absence of any conclusive evidence of their presence and given the fact that much of the habitat within the IAPA is not particularly suitable for them, pine marten will not be considered further within the detailed impact assessment. Polecat The polecat population within the zone of influence is considered likely to be of ‘County’ importance and there are recent records from within the IAPA. Given that it is conceivable that polecats could be affected by the consequences of the BRO, this species will be taken forward as a Key Ecological Receptor for further consideration. American mink Although there are recent records of this species within the IAPA, the American mink is an alien species in the UK and as such is not considered to be of any conservation value in its own right. However, they are significant predators of native species especially water voles, and are therefore to be considered as of conservation importance. As a Schedule 9 species it is illegal to release mink into the wild. A standard operating procedure will be prepared to deal with the small chance that mink are caught as a non-target species during the BRO. This species will not be taken forward for further consideration. Otter The otter population within the zone of influence (outside the relevant sites of European importance) is considered to be of ‘Regional’ importance and there are recent records from within the IAPA. Despite badger trapping operations (both in terms of culling operations and academic studies) having been undertaken in a wide range of locations across the UK, there Page 21 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Page 22 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 are no recorded instances of otters having been accidentally captured. This is probably at least in part due to the type of bait used to capture badgers. Notwithstanding the very low likelihood of otters being captured incidentally, it is conceivable that otters could be affected by disturbance associated with repeated capture operations, were these to be undertaken close to a well-used resting site or a breeding/rearing holt. In order to avoid any such impacts, a specific Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) has been drafted in order to avoid disturbing otter resting sites (this is included as Appendix 1 to the HDA document). Otters are therefore very unlikely to be affected significantly, and so will not be taken forward into the more comprehensive assessment. Fox There are recent records of this species within the IAPA and foxes may be affected by changes arising from the BRO and, in turn, affect other, potentially important species. As foxes are of negligible conservation importance, this species has not been identified as a Key Ecological Receptor. However, given the ecological importance of the species, the likely impacts on foxes will be assessed in more detail as an ‘Other Ecological Receptor’. 5.3 Summary of Ecological Receptors The final scope of the assessment is summarised in Table 5.1 below. This identifies the proposed ‘Key Ecological Receptors’, and ‘Other Ecological Receptors’ for which detailed impact assessment is required. Table 5.1: Identification of Ecological Receptors. Ecological Receptor Associated Species / Habitats Value Potentially Significant Effect Key receptors European designated sites (Dealt with in HDA Screening Report) Chough International Degradation of key foraging areas outside the SPA as a result of reduced rabbit grazing. Possible impacts associated with effects on adjoining populations. Other designated sites Chough; coastal, maritime and cliff-top plant communities; ground nesting birds; polecat; brown hare UK Degradation of key foraging areas and valuable plant communities as a result of reduced rabbit grazing. Increases in predation pressure as a result of elevated fox numbers. Some reduction in predation pressure as a direct result of badger removal. Possible adverse effects from increased competition and intra-guild predation associated with elevated fox population. Chough Cliffs; semi-improved and unimproved grassland. National value. Degradation of key foraging areas as a result of reduced rabbit grazing. Ground nesting bird assemblage. Merlin, lapwing, skylark, song thrush, curlew, cuckoo, nightjar, woodlark, wood warbler, grasshopper warbler, reed bunting, lapwing, grey partridge and tree pipit. Unimproved and semi-improved grassland; arable land; marshes; woodland. National and County value. Increases in predation pressure as a result of elevated fox numbers. Some reduction in predation pressure as a direct result of badger removal. Page 23 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Page 24 tial ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA ological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Ecological Receptor Associated Species / Habitats Value Potentially Significant Effect Brown Hare Agricultural land, especially rough pasture abutting arable land. Also lowland heathland; moorland; open woodland and parkland, in close proximity to agricultural land. Regional value. Increases in predation pressure as a result of elevated fox numbers. Hedgehog Semi-improved and improved grassland; open woodlands; hedgerows; parks and gardens. County value. Possible beneficial effect through release of predation pressure and reduced competition. Polecat Wide variety of farmland habitats. County value. Possible adverse effects from increased competition and intra-guild predation associated with elevated fox population. Other receptors Rabbit Wide variety of farmland habitats; agricultural and coastal grasslands. Negligible value. Possible adverse effects from increased predation pressure associated with elevated fox population. Fox Wide variety of farmland and other habitats. Negligible value. Probable beneficial effects through reduced competition. Poten Ec 6 Baseline Conditions 6.1 Methodology 6.1.1 Desk Study The desk study was undertaken to obtain existing records relating to features of nature conservation importance both within the IAPA, and within the wider area defined on the basis of the zone of influence for the project. As explained in Section 4, a precautionary approach was taken for sites of European importance, with information collated from all of south-west Wales (see the HDA Screening Report for details). For the other designated sites and species of nature conservation importance, data were collected from an area at least 5 km beyond the maximum extent of the IAPA (and up to 10 km in many cases). This comfortably exceeds the maximum likely zone of influence in relation to the ecological changes discussed in Section 5.1; the rationale for delineating this zone is explained in detail in Section 7. A variety of organisations were approached in order to identify any existing ecological information relating to the IAPA and its surroundings. They are listed below along with the data that they provided. • West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre provided records of mammal and bird sightings. • Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) Wales did not provide any information. • British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) Wales provided records of breeding birds. • Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority did not have any relevant information to provide. • The Wildlife Trust of South and West Wales provided a listing of mammal and bird species recorded in their reserves. • The Vincent Wildlife Trust (VWT) provided polecat records from the VWT 2004-2006 survey and pine marten sightings records from 1995. • The Pembrokeshire Bird Group provided up to date distribution maps of relevant species of bird The following websites were reviewed: • www.magic.gov.uk; • UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) website: www.ukbap.org.uk; and • Pembrokeshire BAP website: http://www.biodiversitypembrokeshire.org.uk/ action%20plans.html. • www.bto.org • www.ccw.gov.uk It is important to stress that many of the datasets consulted during this process only ever record the presence of individuals of a given species, rather than their absence. As a result the datasets listed above have only been used to confirm the presence of a species within the IAPA. At no Page 25 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 stage were datasets used to infer absence, abundance and/or limits to distribution. Data supplied by the BTO consisted of two types of information. Atlas data and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. The Atlas data are derived from the last national mapping project 1988 – 1991 and are a record of the confirmed or suspected breeding of species within surveyed ‘tetrads’ 2 x 2 km squares. There are two main limitations to these data. Firstly, it is only ever possible to confirm presence and the fact that a species has not been recorded within a certain tetrad does not confirm its absence from that area. Secondly, the data used for the last National Atlas were collected between 1988 and 1991, and are subsequently now almost certainly out of date. However, for the current report the data were only used to identify the presence of each species within the IAPA and were not used to make assumptions concerning abundance or specific distribution. The BBS data were derived from a maximum of seven BBS squares which had been surveyed at least four times since 1994. The BBS data were also only used to detect the presence of species within the IAPA, and were not used to estimate abundance or to map distributions. The atlas data from the Pembrokeshire Bird Group are by far the most contemporary having been collected a recently as 2006, although again these data have only been used to confirm the presence of vulnerable ground nesting species. 6.1.2 Consultations To date, consultations specifically with regard to this EcIA have comprised reviews of two drafts of this document by CCW, informal discussions with CCW’s national and local teams, and specific meetings with CCW, PCNPA and the Pembrokeshire Chough Study Group PCSG) to discuss issues relating specifically to choughs. 6.2 Key Ecological Receptors This section details the baseline conditions for those ecological resources identified during the Scoping and Valuation process, as ‘Key Ecological Receptors’ or ‘Other Ecological Receptors’. For each receptor, the details of the desk study carried out to inform the assessment are described; the results of the desk study are summarised to help indicate the abundance and distribution of the receptor; and the status of the receptor is reassessed to confirm the nature conservation value assigned earlier in the scoping and valuation process. Page 26 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 6.2.1 Determining current and future baseline conditions Critically, this assessment has been based on the predicted future condition or status of the ecological receptors in the absence of the BRO (as described in Section 4). This future baseline is intended to incorporate the duration of the BRO, along with the estimated time it would take for the badger population, and all affected receptors, to recover to their pre-cull status. For the purposes of this assessment, it has been assumed that the active BRO will continue for 5 years. The recovery of badger populations to pre-cull levels is dependent on a number of factors including the density of the badger population within the wider area, the efficiency of the cull (i.e. the proportion of the badger population that is removed), and the existence of any significant barriers to re-colonisation (e.g. large rivers). It has been estimated that on average it would take 5 years for a culled badger population to recover to its pre-cull size (Anderson & Trewhella, 1985), although a number of empirical field studies have shown this to be highly variable, with periods of three (Tuyttens et al., 2000) and nine years (Cheeseman et al., 1993) having been recorded. The position of the IAPA in a coastal location, to the north and west of an upland area, and with several substantial rivers nearby, indicates the presence of some features that might be expected to limit the recolonisation / recovery of badger populations, at least across parts of the area. In the absence of any other information on the density of badgers in the IAPA, and the likely efficiency of any cull, it has been assumed that badger numbers would be likely to recover to pre-culling levels (assuming that they were allowed to do so) within approximately 5 to 10 years, although given the size of the IAPA and the possible impediments to recolonisation by badgers, in practice, the upper end of this estimate would be more likely. It is anticipated that any associated ecological changes would return to equilibrium over a similar period, perhaps with a ‘lag’ of up to another 5 to 10 years. Thus impacts associated with the IAPA could extend for somewhere between 10 and 25 years. The degree to which the ecological resources in the local area would be expected to change in the absence of an operation to remove badgers from the IAPA has therefore been estimated over this period. The predicted future baseline for all Key Ecological Receptors listed below has been determined on the basis of existing trends in the status of that species. Page 27 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 6.2.2 Baseline conditions for the Key Ecological Receptors Designated Sites Summary details of each of the designated sites are presented in Table 1, in Appendix 1. Given that each of the sites has been selected as a Key Ecological Receptor on the basis that it supports one or more of the species considered below, it is inappropriate to attempt to define a future baseline separately for each site; the trends discussed below would, generally, also be expected to be applicable to the relevant components of the designated site in question. Chough Choughs regularly breed along the coast within the IAPA and Wales holds approximately 75% of the UK breeding population. Pembrokeshire supports approximately 73 pairs (Berry et al. 2008) (c.15% of the UK population). Consequently, the breeding population of choughs within the IAPA is deemed to be of National importance. Two SPAs outside the IAPA (Castlemartin Coast SPA and Ramsey and St Davids Peninsular Coast SPA) and three SSSIs within it, have also been designated largely as a result of their populations of breeding choughs. Figure 2a shows records of choughs within the wider area, although these data should not be considered exhaustive. By using contemporary data, it is possible to predict that if the chough population in Pembrokeshire continues to grow at the current rate, by 2019 (10 years after the cull) there will be approximately 120 pairs, an increase of 64%. However, this is based on the current growth rate of the population and does not take into account other variables such as carrying capacity of suitable habitat in the county, and unforeseen events such as severe winters. In the absence of any other information, however, it is possible to determine that the likely future baseline of for this species will be somewhere between the current population size (73) and 120 pairs. Ground Nesting Bird Assemblage The species listed within this assemblage have been selected on the basis of three criteria: 1. A ground or near ground nesting species. 2. Recorded breeding in the vicinity of the IAPA area in the last 15 years. 3. Listed on either Schedule 1 of the WCA and / or the UKBAP list, and / or listed in Section 42 of the NERC Act. The only exception to this is the meadow pipit which has been listed as a result of the cuckoo’s (listed in Section 42) propensity for parasitizing this species. These criteria were applied to the data received from BTO, the West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre and the Pembrokeshire Bird Group. Consequently, the original list in Appendix 2 was thereby reduced to the following: cuckoo, curlew, grasshopper warbler, grey partridge, Page 28 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 lapwing, meadow pipit, merlin, nightjar, reed bunting, skylark, song thrush, tree pipit, woodlark and wood warbler. Four types of data were collated from the sources listed above. The BTO supplied both Atlas data and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data, while observations of species within geographic locations were supplied by the West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre. The Pembrokeshire Bird Group also supplied up to date atlas data. The BTO atlas data did however, have one major limitation. It was collected during surveys between 1988 and 1991 (Gibbons et al., 1993) and is therefore now at least 18 years old. Between 1988 and 1991 volunteers surveyed the vast majority of all 10 x 10km squares in Britain and Ireland. This resulted in a comprehensive and detailed distribution map for all UK breeding species. The BBS is carried out every year across the UK in approximately 3000 1km² squares. The detailed methodology and annual repetition makes the BBS data invaluable in tracking the population trends of breeding birds in the UK using data on percentage change rather than actual abundance estimates. The BBS is however, limited in coverage, with only 263 1km² squares surveyed in Wales in 2007, and only seven within the IAPA and the zone of influence. The data supplied by the West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre is essentially a list of sightings and it was often not possible to determine whether a species had been recorded as breeding. However, if observed during the breeding season it is likely that the species was breeding or at least attempting to breed in that location. The atlas data supplied by the Pembrokeshire Bird Group (based on similar methods to the National Atlas data) are the most up to date bird data that it was possible to source. Given the variation in quality and relevance of the data collated, a precautionary approach was taken with regard to their interpretation. Any species recorded within the zone of influence during the breeding season and previously identified according to the criteria outlined above, has been included in the “ground nesting bird assemblage” and is discussed here as a key ecological receptor. Generally, the collated data provided information on presence / absence of a species within the zone of influence and not with detailed information on its abundance or distribution. The species assemblage listed above is considered here to be a Key Ecological Receptor, and has been valued in Section 5 as being of County importance. Although it has not been possible to base this valuation on any contemporary abundance and distribution data, it is still considered that ‘County’ best describes the likely level of importance of the assemblage of ground nesting birds that occurs within the zone of influence. The future predicted baseline for the ground nesting bird assemblage has been based largely on population trend data generated from the BBS and Page 29 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 presented on the BTO website. It should be noted however, that the prediction of population trends is an inexact science, and the figures listed below should be treated with caution and considered as indicative only. The data presented in Table 6.2 are based on an extrapolation from the population trend graphs on the BTO website. The existing slope from 2001 – 2006 was extrapolated to 2020-2035. Major assumptions are implicit in any such exercise. For example, it is assumed that the rate of change will stay constant over time. This is infrequently the case with most trends either flattening off or becoming steeper. It also does not take into the account the possibility that a population may reverse its existing trend. However, in order to attempt to predict a future baseline for these species it is necessary to utilise the best available information and assume a constant trend. Where possible the current trend is based on Welsh data only, although for several species only UK trend data was available. The latter carries with it the risk that the national trend may mask local trends or variations. Table 6.2. Species included in the key ecological receptor “ground nesting bird assemblage” Species Data source Current trend 2001- 2006 Predicted change 2009 - 2019 Skylark Wales - 3% Possible slight decline Meadow pipit* Wales - 13% Likely to have declined significantly over this period Lapwing Wales 198719982 - 77% Significant decline predicted Cuckoo Wales - 19% Likely to have declined significantly over this period Curlew*¹ Wales - 26% Likely to have declined significantly over this period Merlin Wales Increased from 1983 – 19933 uncertain Song thrush* Wales - 2% Possible slight decline Reed bunting* UK + 24% Uncertain trend Tree pipit Wales - 22 % Likely to have declined significantly over this period Woodlark No data available but only recently recorded breeding in Wales Nightjar Wales Increase from 1992 – 20044 Possible increase Grasshopper warbler* UK - 8% Uncertain trend Page 30 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Wood warbler UK - 16% Likely significant decline Grey partridge UK - 14% Likely to have declined significantly over this period * based on highly volatile trends; ¹ showing recent signs of stabilising. 2 Wilson et al. 2001, 3 Rebbeca & Bainbridge 1998 and 4 Conway et al. 2007. Brown Hare It is estimated that the British brown hare population is approximately 750,000 with roughly 58,000 of these occurring in Wales (Harris et al 1995). Brown hares have been recorded within the IAPA and the zone of influence, although there is no available data on population sizes. It is estimated that the UK brown hare population declined by 9% from 1995 to 2005, although changes in numbers may have varied significantly between regions and habitats. In habitats similar to those within the zone of influence there may only have been a minor decline (-1%), although hare populations in the uplands may have reduced by as much as 39%. This is a somewhat confused picture and thus makes it hard to establish a predicted baseline. However, considering most of the IAPA comprises “westerly lowlands” (Davis et al., 2007), the 1% decline figure has been used as the most appropriate indicator of a future baseline. If the hare population continues to decline at the same rate, a reduction by a further 13% would be predicted over the life of the project. As a result of its conservation status and uncertain population trends, it is suggested that the brown hare should continue to be considered as a Key Ecological Receptor and valued as important at the Regional scale. Hedgehog Data from the West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre indicated that there was an established hedgehog population in the general vicinity of the IAPA. There are, however, no available data on the abundance of this species within the IAPA or the wider area. It is estimated that there are approximately 145,000 hedgehogs in Wales (Harris et al 1995). The Peoples Trust for Endangered Species (PTES) carries out an annual roadkill survey of a number of mammal species including the hedgehog. Although of limited use in estimating abundance, this method provides a relatively robust index of population change. The PTES road kill survey shows that in Wales the hedgehog population is increasing after a dramatic drop in 2001. If the population continues to grow at its current rate it could increase by something in the order of 60% during the lifetime of the project, potentially returning to its 2001 level. Given the paucity of other more localised data on the hedgehog population, it is proposed that this estimate is established as the predicted future baseline. However, as with several of the other receptors, it should be emphasised that this is only an approximate estimate in the absence of more robust data and should be treated with caution. As a result of its conservation status and only recent indications of population recovery, it is suggested that this species should Page 31 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 continue to be listed as a Key Ecological Receptor, and valued as important at the County scale. Polecat In the late-1990s it was estimated that there were in the order of 17,000 polecats in Wales (Harris et al 1995). Whilst the species continues to expand its range elsewhere in the UK, re-colonising areas it formerly occupied, it is likely that population densities have remained relatively constant in this part of Wales in recent years, and are likely to remain so into the future. It is possible that polecat numbers are locally linked to variations in agricultural management, rabbit numbers, game-keeping activities, non-target effects of rodenticides and hybridisation with feral ferrets. There are records of polecats from within the IAPA and it is likely that this species is relatively widespread in farmland habitats within the area. As a result of its conservation status, it is suggested that this species should continue to be listed as a Key Ecological Receptor, and valued as important at the County scale. Other Ecological Receptors Rabbit Rabbits are known to be widespread and relatively abundant within the IAPA, particularly associated with closely grazed agricultural and coastal grasslands. It is likely that their numbers will continue to fluctuate over the coming decades, in response to disease outbreaks (myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) outbreaks are known to have occurred relatively recently in this part of Wales), and changes in land use and agricultural practices. This species is of limited intrinsic conservation value, but may be of considerable importance as part of the ecological changes associated with badger removal; it will therefore be taken forward for detailed assessment as an ‘Other Ecological Receptor’. Fox Foxes are relatively common and widespread in this part of Wales and are known to be present across the IAPA. A recent study in Wales (Battersby, 2005) estimated mean fox densities in Pembrokeshire to be 3.55km-² (2.62 – 4.82 km-2). In the absence of substantial disease outbreaks, it is unlikely that there would be a substantial net change over the lifetime of the project. As with rabbits, foxes are of limited intrinsic conservation value, but may be of considerable importance as part of the ecological changes associated with badger removal; they will therefore be taken forward for detailed assessment as an ‘Other Ecological Receptor’. Page 32 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 7 Impact Assessment and Options for Mitigation 7.1 Generic Impact Parameters In most impact assessments, the parameters of the different impacts would be characterised for each receptor. However, in this case, given that the potential impacts on Key Ecological Receptors all stem from the same complex series of possible ecological changes associated with badger removal, it is appropriate to deal first with the impact characteristics that are relevant to all receptors. Magnitude: Given the uncertain nature of the ecological changes discussed in Section 5, predicting the magnitude of any such changes is particularly problematic. On the basis of the evidence to date, an increase in fox density across at least part of the IAPA is probable. It is also probable that such an increase would be substantial (perhaps in the order of 50% or more). However, estimating the magnitude of any of the consequential effects of increasing fox density (particularly in combination with other potential changes) in this part of Wales lacks any kind of evidence base. Nevertheless, wherever possible, some indication of likely impact magnitude has been attempted for each of the receptors, below. Extent: During the RBCT the influence of badger culling on badger social structure in the adjoining no cull areas was investigated and it was concluded that culling probably does not have a major impact upon the density of badgers in adjoining areas but does tend to disrupt social organisation (Woodroffe et al. 2006). This study did not attempt to estimate the precise extent of any depressive effect of badger removal on the surrounding badger population, although this clearly tends to be limited in extent. For the purposes of this assessment, it is considered safe to assume that, within a buffer of approximately 2 or 3 badger social group territories, badger density will have returned to a ‘natural’ level, and the effects of, for example, increased dispersal around the margins of the BRO will have disappeared. A buffer zone of approximately 2km around the IAPA boundaries would represent a conservative assessment of the diameters of 2 or 3 badger social group territories. It is also appropriate to assume that any effects that might arise as a result of badger removal would be similarly limited in extent beyond the zone of reduced badger density. Foxes are unlikely to be able to exist at elevated densities beyond the area of substantially reduced badger density and any of the effects associated with an increase in the density of foxes, for example reductions in some prey populations, would be expected to be similarly limited. For example, a localised increase in the mortality rate of a given species of ground nesting bird might act as a ‘sink’ for dispersing ‘surplus’ individuals from the surrounding population, but is unlikely to have a significant effect on the density of territory-holding individuals in adjoining areas. Page 33 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 In a similar manner as for foxes, it is unlikely that hedgehogs would exist at elevated densities beyond the area of reduced badger density, given that badger predation pressure would, at that point, have returned to ‘natural’ levels. Again, any effects resulting from elevated hedgehog numbers would also not be expected to extend far beyond the IAPA boundaries. Thus, a conservative estimate would limit the extent of any of the possible ecological changes described in Section 5 and for each of the receptors below, to within approximately 2 km of the eventual IAPA boundary. Duration: As explained in Section 6.2, it is anticipated that the duration of any possible ecological changes would be between approximately 10-15 and 25 years, although given the size of the IAPA and the possible impediments to re-colonisation by badgers, in practice, the upper end of this estimate would be more likely. It is near certain that any effects would last longer than 10 years and, similarly, probable that (unless the BRO extended for more than 5 years) recovery would be achieved within approximately 25 years. Reversibility: It is anticipated that the majority of effects from the BRO would be fully reversible and that the receptors would recover within approximately 10 – 20 years (as described above and detailed in Section 6.2). However, it is possible that certain species of ground nesting birds (e.g. lapwing and curlew) are currently at such low densities that even a small increase in predation pressure could cause localised extinctions, which are likely to be permanent. Timing and frequency: At present, the timetable for the BRO is to be decided, but may begin in 2010. For the purposes of this assessment it is assumed that trapping and shooting of badgers will take place from June until November on an annual basis, similar to the procedure during the RBCT. However, the ecological changes that may arise as a result of badger removal would not be expected to relate to the specifics of the trapping programme. It is likely that, if they manifest at all, increases in breeding success, recruitment and longevity of foxes and hedgehogs, for example, or increases in ground nesting bird mortality rates or reductions in breeding success, would begin incrementally, season-by-season. 7.2 Key Ecological Receptors 7.2.1 Designated sites Sites of European importance Potential impacts on these sites are reported in the HDA Screening Report. Page 34 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Other designated sites Aberarth – Carreg Wylan SSSI; Cardigan Island Wildlife Trust Reserve and SSSI; and Newport Cliffs SSSI These three sites are designated, at least in part, on the basis of their use by roosting and nesting choughs and the value of their maritime, coastal and cliff-top vegetation. The possible impacts of the BRO on choughs and sensitive coastal plant communities are discussed in detail below. The likelihood of significant impacts on these sites remains uncertain. It is near certain, were they to occur, that the balance of any impacts would be adverse rather than beneficial. However, whether any impacts would occur, and what the magnitude and significance of these would be remains uncertain. Cemaes Head Wildlife Trust Reserve and SSSI As with the sites above, the likelihood of significant impacts on this site remains uncertain. The possible impacts of the BRO on choughs and other ground nesting birds are discussed in detail below. Teifi Marshes Wildlife Trust Reserve (part of Afon Teifi SSSI); Cwm Bach (Sychpant) SSSI; Gallt Lanerch – Coed Gelli-Deg SSSI (including Llanerch Alder Carr Wildlife Trust Reserve); Gweunydd Blaencleddau SSSI; Pengelli Forest and Pant-Teg Wood NNR, SSSI and Wildlife Trust Reserve Once again, the likelihood of significant impacts on some of the bird species these sites support is uncertain. The possible impacts of the BRO on ground nesting birds are discussed in detail below. Caeau Crug Bychan, Ty Gwyn A Lleyn Ysgaw SSSI As with the sites above, the likelihood of significant impacts on some of the bird species this site supports / attracts is uncertain. The possible impacts of the BRO on chough and other ground nesting birds are discussed in detail below. 7.2.2 Species Chough Potential impacts The likely effect of the BRO on chough populations is uncertain. Choughs generally nest on cliffs and occasionally in buildings, and within the IAPA the vast majority of choughs nest on the coastal cliffs. As such, it is not thought that there would be a significant risk of predation of eggs and chicks by mammalian predators including badger and foxes. No increase in predation risk is therefore anticipated as a result of the BRO. However, it has been shown that chough populations in the UK rely heavily on the availability of particular habitats to provide good quality foraging resources (Whitehead et al. 2005; Bignal et al. 1996). The optimal foraging habitat for choughs is short-sward permanent grassland (a sward height of Page 35 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 2-4cm) and the interface between this and bare soil or rock (Whitehead et al. 2005). The maintenance of this short-sward grassland by both sheep and rabbits has been shown to be a key factor in the success of this species (McCanch 2000). It is considered likely that, in many locations, the coastal and cliff-top grasslands within the zone of influence that are important to the resident chough, are maintained, at least in part, by rabbit grazing (ponies are also important in several areas). A substantial decrease in the rabbit population within the coastal and upland parts of the IAPA could alter the sward height, vegetation structure and species composition of the grassland areas the chough currently rely on, and thus could have a significant adverse impact on the resident chough population. Depending upon the magnitude and extent of any change in vegetation, this could lead to a localised reduction in the rate of increase in the chough population, or even a localised decline. The likelihood of an effect on rabbits as a result of badger removal is discussed in detail below; whilst it appears unlikely that the BRO would result in changes substantial enough to affect grazing pressure and hence drive vegetation change, it is conceivable (but still unlikely) that the effects of the BRO could exacerbate a decline in rabbit numbers caused by a localised disease outbreak. The situation is potentially complicated by a possible overlap in diet between choughs and badgers. For example, both species eat bees (Kerbiriou and Julliard 2007). In most cases their invertebrate prey would be considered as super-abundant and therefore not a limiting factor for populations of predators, particularly those existing at such low densities as chough. However, certain bee species can also occur at relatively low densities. By removing badgers, it is conceivable that the choughs may benefit, to some degree, from a reduction in competition; however, bees do not form major part of the diet, so this is unlikely to to be a significant component except possibly at a very local and focussed temporal scale. On balance, the possible effects of badger removal on choughs in and around the IAPA remain speculative at best. It is probable that, were they to occur, any impacts would be adverse rather than beneficial. However, whether there would be any impacts, and what the magnitude and significance of these would be remains uncertain. This is discussed in more detail in the HDA Screening Report. Options for mitigation and compensation Mitigation If habitat monitoring was to reveal an adverse change in sward height, vegetation structure and/or species composition of the grassland areas the chough currently rely on, consideration would need to be given to beginning or intensifying grazing by livestock in these areas, to help balance any reduction in rabbit grazing, along with the possible introduction of mowing regimes. This would be implemented through the existing grassland management regimes being operated for the benefit of choughs by the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority, CCW and the National Trust Page 36 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 (see the HDA Screening Report for details). A potential impact on choughs has also been identified as an issue for two of the Natura 2000 sites in the general vicinity of the IAPA. This adds to the importance of ensuring that the existing framework of grassland management and monitoring will be sufficient to allow remedial action to be taken should any adverse changes in the important feeding areas for choughs be detected. Whilst initial meetings with the relevant stakeholders and consultees suggested that additional contingency measures may need to be developed specifically as a result of the BRO, it was decided following subsequent meetings and discussions that the varied management plans already in place to benefit choughs in this part of the country (for example, PCNPA’s Coastal Slopes Initiative, agri-environment initiatives such as Tir Gofal, CCW’s SSSI management objectives for coastal grassland, the National Trust’s coastal land management practices, the Wildlife Trust of West Wales’s Chough Conservation Strategy, and the Chough Species Action Plan in the Pembrokeshire BAP) will all provide sufficient reactive management to mitigate any adverse impacts on chough habitat over the coming years, whether these are due to the BRO or more natural reasons (such as myxomatosis). Compensation Given that a possible impact pathway has been highlighted that could result in a significant impact on a receptor of national importance, consideration could be given to increasing the resources/funding for chough conservation projects in the wider area. This would have the aim of boosting further the chough population in this part of Wales, to off-set, in a pro-active rather than reactive manner, any possible adverse effects of the BRO. Ground Nesting Bird Assemblage Potential impacts The potential impacts of the BRO on the ground nesting bird assemblage identified in Section 5 are uncertain. Badgers are known to predate birds, especially nests, and it is logical therefore that this predation pressure will be significantly reduced following the removal of badgers. However, other predators such as foxes, hedgehogs, small mustelids and some species of bird also predate the nests of ground nesting birds, and such species may benefit from a reduction in competition following a BRO. If following the removal of badgers it is only the surplus that are taken by other predators, then the overall level of predation on ground nesting birds could be expected to remain constant. However, as a result of mechanisms such as meso-predator release (as explained in Section 4.2.2.), there is a possibility that predators that compete with the badger, particularly foxes and hedgehogs, could increase in abundance substantially, thereby exerting a greater overall predation pressure on ground nesting birds. Predation is just one of the mechanisms by which bird populations are limited and/or regulated. For many species of bird it is the over winter mortality that exerts the greatest limiting influence. In order for predation to significantly affect bird populations it must be additive and not Page 37 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 compensatory i.e. that predation must remove more birds than were going to die anyway. Large post-breeding, pre-winter populations of birds have been referred to as “the doomed surplus” (Errington 1946; Banks 1999), as only a finite number are going to survive the winter. Whether the rest die of starvation or are predated is immaterial. In certain circumstances predation can hold a population below a critical threshold and in these circumstances variations in predation pressure may have serious consequences, especially with rare or highly vulnerable species e.g. lapwing in the IAPA. There are many other factors that limit bird populations, not least the effect of land use. Modern farming techniques have been identified as the main cause of declining farmland birds (Newton 2004), and it is largely accepted that land use and weather are likely to be two of the most important variables that determine the success or otherwise of terrestrial bird populations. However, predation can also be the most significant factor, particularly at the local scale (e.g. for some breeding waders). The effects of badger removal were investigated during the RBCT, although the results of this study were indeterminate (Hounsome 2005); this evidence is reviewed in detail in Section 5. There was a significant effect on meadow pipits, but this was manifested in falling numbers in the control areas (where no badgers were culled) and relatively constant numbers in the culling areas. The species that make up the Key Ecological Receptor, i.e. the ground nesting bird assemblage, have been selected on the basis of their inherent vulnerability to mammalian predation, as well as their conservation status within the UK and/or Wales. As such, many of these species are uncommon within the zone of influence, and any increase in predation pressure may have a substantial effect on their status at a county level and thus a significant impact. Equally, some species may experience a lessening in predation pressure following the removal of badgers, thereby producing a beneficial impact. The evidence on which to base such an impact assessment is incomplete, and it is therefore necessary to conclude that (a) any impacts may be adverse or beneficial, or a combination of both; (b) the magnitude of these impacts is unknown; and (c) the likelihood of any impact occurring is uncertain. The species most likely to be at risk from an increase in predation pressure are those whose populations are also most likely to fluctuate and/or decline as a result of other factors, over the life of the project. From the assemblage in question, the most vulnerable are likely to be meadow and tree pipit, cuckoo, curlew, lapwing and grey partridge. It is probable that if adverse impacts on ground nesting birds do manifest, that these species would be amongst the most likely to be affected significantly. Options for mitigation and compensation Mitigation Given the high degree of uncertainty with regard to impacts on ground nesting birds, it is difficult to identify targeted options for mitigation at this stage. If the monitoring programme set out in Section 8 detected changes Page 38 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 in the abundance of one or more ground nesting bird species, when compared to an previously established pre-cull baseline (see section 8.2), it would be appropriate to review specific options to boost the breeding success of that species, in an attempt to accelerate the recovery of its local population. In rare circumstances it may be necessary to exclude or control predators in the vicinity of rare breeding bird nests e.g. lapwing. Compensation As with chough, above, given that a possible impact pathway exists, consideration could be given to increasing the funding for local schemes to promote environmentally sensitive agricultural practices and other conservation projects that would benefit ground nesting birds, as pro-active compensation to off-set any possible impacts. Brown Hare Although there is some evidence for badgers predating hares it is not thought that it is a common occurrence (Neal and Cheeseman, 1996), and as a consequence it is highly unlikely that badgers limit hare populations. Hares are however regularly predated by foxes (Reynolds and Tapper, 1995) and there is some evidence that foxes could influence their distribution and abundance (Vaughan et al., 2003; Lindstrom et al., 1994). Surveys carried out during the RBCT did not detect any effects on rabbit or hare populations in response to badger culling (Trewby 2009), despite the confirmed increase in fox densities. However, this does not exclude the possibility of consequences for their populations in different areas of the country, where the faunal community structure is different. Hence for example, if fox numbers were to increase in response to badger removal in an area with relatively low rabbit abundance, then the consequences for the hare population may be more significant. There is some theoretical evidence to suggest a possible adverse impact of badger culling on hares, through increased predation from an elevated fox population. However, the evidence from the RBCT suggests that this either did not happen or did so at a level that was undetectable by the monitoring protocols employed. It is near certain that the BRO would not benefit the hare population within the IAPA. It is suggested, therefore, that any impact is likely to be adverse, although the likelihood of an impact is uncertain and its magnitude and significance is impossible to predict on the basis of the existing evidence. Options for mitigation and compensation It is likely that hares benefit from general initiatives that seek to increase habitat and species diversity in farmland ecosystems. The options for compensation suggested above for ground nesting birds in terms of increased funding for relevant conservation initiatives are, broadly, also likely to be relevant for this species. Page 39 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Hedgehog Badgers are an important predator of hedgehogs but they also prey on a similar range of invertebrates. As such the badger is both a predator and competitor of the hedgehog. The effects of a BRO on hedgehog abundance and distribution were investigated during the RBCT (Young 2006). There was a 100% increase in the abundance of hedgehogs in areas where badgers had been removed, although this increase was restricted to amenity grassland within villages. By contrast, hedgehog numbers showed a slight decline in areas with no badger culling (this is reviewed in Section 5). Although there are anecdotal records of foxes eating hedgehogs there is very little evidence to suggest that this would significantly affect hedgehog populations, indeed the 100% increase in hedgehog numbers during the RBCT coincided with an approximate 50% increase in fox numbers. It is probable, therefore, that the BRO will have a significant beneficial impact on the hedgehog population within the IAPA. It is also probable that this effect will be greatest around areas of human habitation. Polecat Potential impacts The possible consequences of badger removal and an increase in fox numbers is discussed with regard to small mustelid predators in Section 5. On balance, it is considered probable, as a result of the greater likelihood of competition and intra-guild predation, that there would be some impacts on polecat populations, and that these would be adverse rather than beneficial. However, the magnitude and significance of any impacts is entirely uncertain. Options for mitigation and compensation As with brown hares, it is likely that polecats benefit from general initiatives that seek to increase habitat and species diversity in farmland ecosystems. The options for compensation suggested above for ground nesting birds in terms of increased funding for relevant conservation initiatives are, broadly, also likely to be relevant for this species. 7.3 Other Ecological Receptors Rabbit Potential impacts During the RBCT fox numbers were shown to increase by an average of 50% and it is assumed that this will have exerted an extra predation pressure on lagomorphs including rabbits. However, surveys undertaken as part of the RBCT did not detect any significant effects on rabbits; this is discussed in more detail in Section 5. There remains a possibility that an Page 40 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 increase in fox abundance as a result of the BRO may decrease the population of rabbits across all or parts of the IAPA. Conversely however, it has been speculated that the removal of badgers provides rabbits with access to empty badger setts which they use for breeding in locations from which they had previously been excluded. In addition, badgers are known to predate rabbits, especially young kits. It is possible, therefore, that rabbits may benefit from a badger cull and even in the face of increased predation pressure from a larger fox population, may increase in abundance. Notwithstanding the potential effects of the BRO on the rabbit population, it is likely that rabbit numbers are more heavily influenced by changes in land use and management, agricultural practices, and diseases such as myxomatosis and rabbit viral haemorrhagic disease (RVHD). There are occasional outbreaks of both diseases within Pembrokeshire, although predicting such events is very difficult and beyond the scope of this assessment. It is very difficult to predict the likely impacts of the BRO on rabbit populations within the IAPA, over the lifetime of the project. On balance, it is probable that any impacts on rabbits would be adverse rather than beneficial but, given all the other factors that might affect rabbit numbers, it is unlikely that these impacts would be significant, at least across the area as a whole. As identified above, a possible impact pathway has been highlighted involving choughs, in the event that elevated fox populations do depress rabbit numbers in the coastal zone and thus bring about a decrease in rabbit grazing pressure on coastal and cliff-top grasslands. It is likely that most of the factors discussed above with regard to possible impacts on rabbit populations would apply to these parts of the IAPA, although any potential benefit rabbits might derive from abandoned badger setts would be less relevant here: this would have more of an effect in low-lying, intensively managed farmland, where the availability of secure, dry warren sites might be limiting. Fox Potential impacts Evidence for the likely consequences of badger removal on fox populations is discussed in Section 5. It is considered likely that a similar set of ecological relationships between foxes and badgers exists within the IAPA as was the case in those parts of the RBCT where fox populations were studied. It is therefore considered probable that there would be an increase in fox density across at least part of the IAPA. It is also probable that such an increase would be substantial (perhaps in the order of 50% or more). Page 41 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 7.4 Summary of impacts on Ecological Receptors Table 7.1: Impacts on Ecological Receptors. Ecological Receptor Associated Species / Habitats Value Confirmed Effect Key receptors European designated sites Reported in the HDA Screening Report Chough International value Taking into account contingency mitigation triggered by effective monitoring and/or existing reactive chough management strategies, no effect on qualifying features Other designated sites Chough; coastal, maritime and cliff-top plant communities; ground nesting birds; polecat; brown hare UK value Likelihood, magnitude and significance of adverse impacts remain uncertain (although, for some sites, impacts are only possible on relatively minor elements of site assemblages). Effective mitigation is available for choughs. Chough Cliffs; semi-improved and unimproved grassland National value Likelihood, magnitude and significance of adverse impacts remain uncertain, but effective mitigation is available, triggered by monitoring Ground nesting bird assemblage Merlin, lapwing, skylark, song thrush, curlew, cuckoo, nightjar, woodlark, wood warbler, grasshopper warbler, reed bunting, lapwing, grey partridge and tree pipit. Unimproved and semi-improved grassland; arable land; marshes; woodland County value (potentially national, if lapwing present) Likelihood, magnitude and significance of any impacts remain uncertain Monitoring proposed Some options for mitigation and compensation Brown Hare Agricultural land, especially rough pasture abutting arable land. Also lowland heathland; moorland; open woodland and parkland, in close proximity to agricultural land Regional value Likelihood, magnitude and significance of adverse impacts remain uncertain Hedgehog Semi-improved and improved grassland; open woodlands; hedgerows; County value Probable significant beneficial effect Page 42 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Ecological Associated Species / Value Confirmed Effect Receptor Habitats parks and gardens Polecat Wide variety of farmland habitats County value Likelihood, magnitude and significance of adverse impacts remain uncertain Other receptors Rabbit Wide variety of farmland habitats; agricultural and coastal grasslands Negligible value Likelihood, magnitude and significance of any impacts remain uncertain Fox Wide variety of farmland and other habitats Negligible value Probable significant beneficial effect Page 43 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 8 Recommendations for Monitoring 8.1 Rationale Wherever possible, the impact assessment process should ensure that all potentially significant impacts on valued ecological receptors are identified and characterised as fully and quantitatively as possible, and that the significance of these impacts is assessed at the appropriate level of importance. An important part of this process is also to assess the likelihood of the impact occurring as predicted. Any relevant mitigation measures should then be explained and the residual impacts, if any, should be described and, again, quantified wherever possible. As a result of the paucity of relevant data and comparable studies, the assessment presented here includes a number of potential impacts where an assessment of likelihood is not possible with any degree of certainty, and where the magnitude and significance of these potential impacts is similarly unclear. In light of this uncertainty and the stage of development of the BRO proposals, ‘options’ for mitigation and compensation are proposed, rather than specific undertakings. It has also not been possible to assess the likely effectiveness of these mitigation and compensation options, in the context of the impacts they would need to address. It is suggested that a responsible approach to these uncertainties would be to implement a comprehensive monitoring scheme, to assess the effects of the BRO on the most vulnerable and valuable of the Key Ecological Receptors. This would give the Welsh Assembly Government the ability to detect, as early as possible, any significant changes in the status of the receptors, and thus allow the early implementation of the selected mitigation and compensation measures. A comprehensive approach to monitoring, also encompassing the most important of the ‘other’ ecological receptors, would also help inform future assessments, should the IAPA be extended or a similar approach be proposed elsewhere in Wales. 8.2 Monitoring proposals Chough and chough foraging habitat Given the important and vulnerable nature of this receptor, the overriding aim of any monitoring must be to ensure that adverse impacts on the resident choughs are detected as rapidly as possible, to help target remedial mitigation. Monitoring of chough numbers and breeding success is currently carried out annually by the Pembrokeshire Chough Study Group (PCSG), and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The availability of these data will aid the interpretation of the monitoring of habitat quality. Following a site visit and detailed discussions with representatives from CCW, the National Park Authority and PCSG it was agreed that, provided there are sufficient resources available to ensure that existing chough management and monitoring presently being carried out along this stretch of coastline can continue, this would be sufficient to ensure that any changes as a result of Page 44 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 the proposed cull would be detected and reacted to by organisations already working on chough conservation in the area (see the HDA Screening Report for details). Ground nesting birds Although the effects of badger removal on ground nesting species were investigated during the RBCT, the results were inconclusive. As a result, the impact assessment reported in Section 7 contains a substantial amount of uncertainty. The aims of this part of the monitoring scheme would be twofold: (a) To detect any adverse changes in the abundance, species composition and distribution of ground nesting birds that may arise as an indirect consequence of the BRO, and hence ‘trigger’ (and guide the choice of) mitigation and compensation options. This would also aid the Welsh Assembly Government in the discharge of their responsibilities with regard to national and local BAP priorities and Section 42 species, in the context of this project. (b) To guide future impact assessments and decision making with regard to any expansion of the IAPA or new BRO elsewhere in Wales. It is recommended that a ground nesting bird monitoring programme is carried out in the spring of 2010 to establish a precise pre-BRO abundance estimate of key ground nesting species. It is felt that this pre-cull estimate is crucial if significant effects of badger culling are to be detected. The monitoring will then continue for the duration of the BRO (and thereafter, if an effect is detected). The scheme should be designed to maximise precision in estimates and not necessarily accuracy, as detecting significant changes in abundance is the priority. However, it would also be appropriate to review the proposed methodology in the context of other current or recent surveys elsewhere in the UK, to ensure that it is possible to take advantage of contextual data wherever appropriate. For common species an intensive version of the British Trust for Ornithology’s (BTO) Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) should be considered. This scheme is specifically designed to detect changes in populations and the data collected would have the added advantage of being directly comparable to Wales and/or the UK as a whole. The number of sample squares and distribution would have to be decided after preliminary pilot data had been used in a power analysis. For rarer species e.g. lapwing and curlew, it is not felt that a BBS approach will suffice, and a more intensive survey should be conducted which identifies nest sites for these species and monitors nest success. Such detailed monitoring of rare birds will aid in the establishment and execution of any necessary remedial measures, such as exclusion and/or lethal control of predators. Ideally, the programme should be conducted both within and outside the IAPA to allow significant changes to be detected. It is recommended that the monitoring programme should attempt to collect data on all of the species identified as components of the Key Ecological Receptor, but with a focus on meadow and tree pipit, cuckoo, curlew, lapwing and grey partridge. Page 45 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 Brown hare The rationale for monitoring hares is very similar to that for monitoring ground nesting birds, although the mitigation measures that might be ‘triggered’ as a result would be less specific. It is recommended that a monitoring programme for hares is implemented and continues for the duration of the BRO (and thereafter, if an effect is detected). As with the bird monitoring, the programme should be designed to maximise precision in estimates and not necessarily accuracy, as detecting significant changes in abundance is the priority and, again, it would also be appropriate to review the proposed methodology in the context of other current or recent surveys elsewhere in the UK, to ensure that it is possible to take advantage of contextual data wherever appropriate. Ideally such a programme should be conducted both within and outside the IAPA to allow significant changes to be detected. Polecat The rationale for monitoring polecats is the same for monitoring hares. Whilst the precise monitoring techniques will be different (trapping rather than a combination of nocturnal spotlight counting and daytime transects), the principles summarised above for hares would be the same for polecats. Rabbit The rationale for monitoring rabbits is different. This is not a species of nature conservation value and no mitigation or compensation measures would be ‘triggered’ should an effect be detected. However, rabbits have been identified as a species of some importance as part of the ecological changes that might manifest as a consequence of badger removal. They may be affected by the potential increase in the abundance of foxes and may, in turn, affect other mammalian predators. In this particular case, they may play a crucial role in helping to facilitate the current increase in chough populations. It is therefore recommended that rabbit populations are monitored across a range of habitat types within and outside the IAPA, in particular in the vicinity of the grassland areas known to be of value to choughs (surveillance of rabbit numbers is recommended in the management plans of two of the nearby SPAs for which chough are important species). The principles of rabbit monitoring should follow those set out for hares, above. It is considered that the results of this monitoring programme will be of particular importance in helping to interpret the results of some of the other monitoring initiatives detailed above, and in future impact assessments and decision making should the IAPA be extended or new BROs be proposed. Fox The rationale for monitoring foxes is much the same as for rabbits. An investigation into the ecological consequences of removing badgers, carried out during the RBCT, showed significant increases in fox abundance. It is possible, therefore, that a similar effect may be observed during badger culling in the IAPA. Given that many of the potential impacts described in Section 7 rely on a change in predation pressure resulting from the removal Page 46 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 of badgers and a subsequent increase in foxes, it is considered important to investigate whether this increase in foxes actually happens. A fox monitoring programme is therefore recommended, adopting the same principles as summarised above for rabbits. As with rabbit monitoring, it is considered that the results of this fox monitoring programme will be of particular importance in helping to interpret the results of some of the other monitoring initiatives detailed above, and in future impact assessments and decision making. Page 47 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 9 Conclusions and Consequences for DecisionMaking A number of species have been identified that: (a) are present within the IAPA, (b) are of nature conservation importance, and (c) could be affected indirectly by the BRO. In addition, a number of sites of nature conservation value have been identified within and close to the IAPA that have been designated, at least in part because of the populations of these species that they support. Arguably the most important of these species is the chough, and the sensitive coastal and maritime grasslands on which it depends; these clifftop habitats are not only important to the resident choughs, but the plant communities are also of intrinsic nature conservation value. The chough population within and close to the IAPA is of national importance and the designated sites in question are valuable at a UK scale. It is probable that fox numbers will increase as a consequence of badger removal, and it is conceivable that this will lead to a decline in rabbits, at least in some areas. These sensitive cliff-top habitats are maintained, at least in part, by rabbit grazing. Thus, if rabbit densities do decline in the coastal zone (possibly in combination with a disease outbreak), there could be adverse impacts on the valuable habitats, the chough, and the sites that support them. It is thus clearly important that the monitoring of chough foraging habitat takes place in order to assess the extent to which impacts on rabbits might be having an effect. Following discussion with the relevant consultees it was agreed that such monitoring is already being carried out as part of existing widespread land management agreements, and that this would be sufficient to ensure that remedial action would be implemented should adverse effects on habitat quality arise from the BRO (see the HDA Screening Report). Potential impacts have also been identified with regard to an assemblage of ground nesting birds, which could suffer increased predation from an elevated fox population. Once again, there are also several important sites that mention some of these birds in their designation details although, in each case, these sites’ primary reasons for designation relate to a different set of habitats and species (that would not be affected by the BRO). In its own right, the assemblage of birds within the IAPA is of county importance. As with the possible impacts on choughs, the likelihood of any impacts on ground nesting birds is uncertain. However, unlike the situation with choughs sufficient monitoring is not currently being undertaken for these species, so it is recommended that an annual monitoring scheme is put in place in order to detect any significant changes in the ground nesting bird population. It is essential that any monitoring scheme is carried out before the BRO goes ahead in order to establish a pre-BRO baseline, with which to compare data from subsequent years. It has also been identified that the BRO could have an adverse effect on hares and polecats, the populations of which are, again, of nature Page 48 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 conservation importance (at a regional and county level respectively) but, once again, any impacts are uncertain. It is probable that the BRO will generate a significant beneficial impact on hedgehogs which, although they might possibly add to the predation pressure on ground nesting birds, are a species of intrinsic nature conservation value in their own right. Many of the results of this impact assessment are unavoidably inconclusive. It is recommended that a responsible approach to these uncertainties would be to implement a scheme to monitor the effects of the BRO on the most vulnerable and valuable of the species and sites that might be affected. This would provide the opportunity to detect, as early as possible, any significant changes in their status and thus allow the early implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. A comprehensive approach to monitoring, also encompassing foxes and rabbits, would also help inform future assessments, should the IAPA be extended or a similar approach be proposed elsewhere in Wales. It is also important to highlight that options do exist to address or off-set these potential effects. Given that these possible impact pathways have been identified, consideration could be given to increasing the funding to, for example, local schemes that promote environmentally sensitive agricultural practices, and other conservation projects that would benefit these valuable species, as pro-active compensation to off-set any possible impacts. Page 49 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) Welsh Assembly Government December 2009 10 References Andersen, J. (1955). The food of the Danish badger. Danish Review of Game Biology, 3: 1-75. Anderson, R.M. & Trewhella, W. (1985). Population dynamics of the badger (Meles meles) and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 310, 327381. Baker, P.J. & Harris, S. (2003). 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Page 54 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Figures Page 55 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 NTownershipWalesBCarea_region <all other values> National Nature Reserve National Park Site of Special Scientific Interest Special Area of Conservation Wildlife Trust Reserve Key Dinas Head Cemaes Head Newport Cardigan Figure 1: Maximum extent of IAPA Designated sites and WX71314-C1314 Scale Contract No Version No - date NTS Title Ecological Impacts of Badger Control Drawn by Sheet Modified by - date CW CW - 29/10/09 1/1 CW - 11/12/09 A - 07/08/09 0 1.25 2.5 5 Kilometers Figure 2a: British Trust for Ornithology Breeding Bird Survey Records WX71314-C1314 Scale Contract No Version No - date NTS Title Ecological Impacts of Badger Control Drawn by Sheet Modified by - date CW 1/1 CW - 29/10/09 A - 07/08/09 Key Kilometres Tresaith Cenarth Dinas Penygroes Llandissilio Puncheston Figure 2b: West Wales Biodiversity Information Centre Bird Records WX71314-C1314 Scale Contract No Version No - date NTS Title Ecological Impacts of Badger Control Drawn by Sheet Modified by - date CW 1/1 CW - 29/10/09 A - 07/08/09 Key Kilometres Tresaith Cenarth Dinas Penygroes Puncheston Figure 3: Information Centre Mammal Survey Records West Wales Biodiversity WX71314-C1314 Scale Contract No Version No - date NTS Title Ecological Impacts of Badger Control Drawn by Sheet Modified by - date CW 1/1 CW - 29/10/09 A - 07/08/09 Key Kilometres Tresaith Cenarth Dinas Penygroes Puncheston Page 56 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Appendices Page 57 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Appendix 1 Table 1a. European designated sites that occur within the IAPA Site Name Qualifying feature(s) Approximate location Website link to Management Plan containing conservation objectives where defined Water courses of plain to montane levels with the Ranunculion fluitantis and Callitricho-Batrachion vegetation. Oligotrophic to mesotrophic standing waters with vegetation of the Littorelletea uniflorae and/or of the IsoëtoNanojuncetea. Brook lamprey Lampetra planeri; River lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis; Atlantic salmon Salmo salar; Bullhead Cottus gobio; Otter Lutra lutra; Floating water-plantain Luronium natans; Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus. Within area of focus (flows through Cardigan) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ aber-to--breconsaclist/afon-teifi--riverteifisac.aspx Afon Teifi / River Teifi SAC Afonydd Cleddau / Cleddau Rivers SAC Water courses of plain to montane levels with the Ranunculion fluitantis and Callitricho-Batrachion vegetation. Active raised bogs; Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (AlnoPadion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae). Brook lamprey Lampetra planeri; River lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis; Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus; Bullhead Cottus gobio; Otter Lutra lutra. Within area of focus (south of Fishguard and along south east edge of Preselis) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ aber-to--breconsaclist/afonydd-cleddau-cleddau-river.aspx Cardigan Bay / Bae Ceredigion SAC Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time. Reefs. Submerged or partially submerged sea caves. Bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncates; Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus; River lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis; Grey seal Halichoerus grypus. Within area of focus (estuary at Cardigan, and coastline to the west of Cardigan) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ reg-33-plans.aspx Gweunydd Blaencleddau SAC Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix; Molinia meadows on calcareous, peaty or clayey-silt-laden soils (Molinion caeruleae); Blanket bogs; Transition mires and quaking bogs; Alkaline fens. Marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas (Eurodryas, Hypodryas) aurinia. Southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale. Within area of focus (near Presli mountains, near Crymych) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ glannau-togweunyddsaclist/ gweunyddblaencleddausac.aspx North Pembrokeshire Woodlands / Coedydd Gogledd Sir Benfro SAC Old sessile oak woods with Ilex and Blechnum in the British Isles. Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae). Barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus. Within area of focus (east of Fishguard, near Pontfaen) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ north-to-rhos-saclist/ north-pembswoodlandssac.aspx Page 58 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 59 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Qualifying feature(s) Approximate location Website link to Management Plan containing conservation objectives where defined Pembrokeshire Bat Sites and Bosherston Lakes/ Safleoedd Ystlum Sir Benfro a Llynnoedd Bosherston SAC Hard oligo-mesotrophic waters with benthic vegetation of Chara spp. Greater horseshoe bat Rhinolophus ferrumequinum. Lesser horseshoe bat Rhinolophus hipposideros. Otter Lutra lutra. Partly within area of focus (Felin Llwyngwair, Newport) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ north-to-rhos-saclist/ pembs-bat-sites-andbosherston. aspx Preseli SAC Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix; European dry heaths; Depressions on peat substrates of the Rhynchosporion; Alkaline fens. Southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale; Marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas (Eurodryas, Hypodryas) aurinia; Slender green feather-moss Drepanocladus (Hamatocaulis) vernicosus. Within area of focus (Preseli mountains - in centre of area of focus) http://www.ccw.gov.uk/lan dscape-wildlife/protecting-ourlandscape/ special-sitesproject/ north-to-rhos-saclist/ preseli-sac.aspx Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Table 1b. National designated sites that occur within the IAPA Site Name Description Grid Reference Aberarth - Carreg Wylan SSSI This site is of special interest for its geological, geomorphological and biological features. Bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus and Atlantic grey seal Halichoerus grypus are of special interest and are known to feed and breed along the shoreline. The nationally rare crustacean Pectenogammarus planicrurus, typical of clean shingle shores occurs here. The sea cliffs provide roosts and nest sites for nationally important populations of chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax kittiwake Rissa tridactyla and lesser black-backed gull Larus fuscus. Habitats of special interest associated with the cliffs and coastal slopes include cliff crevice and ledge vegetation, maritime grassland and coastal heathland supporting a large number of nationally scarce and regionally rare plant species including rock sea lavender Limonium britannicum ssp. transcanalis, common gromwell Lithospermum officinale and smooth cat’s ear Hypochaeris glabra. The scarce pearl-bordered fritillary butterfly Bolaria euphrosyne and the regionally rare small blue butterfly Cupido minimus, are part of an important invertebrate community present. Includes Cardigan Island Wildlife Trust Reserve, which contains a valuable assemblage of breeding seabirds and chough. Includes Cemaes Head Wildlife Trust Reserve, which includes extensive areas of close-cropped sward on the west side of the Head formed through Pony grazing, which is an advantage to the small Chough population, consisting of one breeding pair on the reserve and one other just outside the boundary, although the site is used by many others for foraging. Small numbers of Herring Gulls, Fulmars and Shags breed, together with a colony of Cormorants. Other species of note include Peregrines, Kestrel, Raven, Wheatear, Stonechat and Skylarks, which breed on the reserve. Grey Seals haul out on inaccessible beaches in the winter and breed in the late summer, and are sometimes to be seen swimming offshore, as are schools of Dolphins and Porpoises. Mammals include Rabbits and Bank Voles. SN479641 to SN104455 Afon Cleddau Dwyreiniol / Eastern Cleddau River SSSI The Eastern Cleddau River is of special interest primarily for important populations of otter Lutra lutra, bullhead Cottus gobio, river lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis and brook lamprey Lampetra planeri. It is also of special interest for sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus; for its range of river habitats including beds of submerged aquatic plants often dominated by watercrowfoot Ranunculus spp, the aquatic plant Potamogeton berchtoldii x P. polygonifolius (cf.) as well as a variety of associated riverside habitats. SN151317 to SN060145 Afon Cleddau Gorllewinol/Weste rn Cleddau River SSSI The Western Cleddau River is of special interest primarily for important populations of otter Lutra lutra, bullhead Cottus gobio, river lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis and brook lamprey Lampetra planeri. It is also of special interest for sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus; for its range of river habitats including beds of submerged aquatic plants often dominated by watercrowfoot Ranunculus spp., as well as a variety of associated riverside habitats. SM867308 to SM958153 Page 60 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 61 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Description Grid Reference Afon Teifi SSSI (includes Teifi Marshes Wildlife Trust Reserve); part of Coedmor National Nature Reserve. Afon Teifi is of special interest for a range of river types and associated riverside habitats; flowering plants; bryophytes; otter; Cetti's warbler; bottlenose dolphin; brown hairstreak; fish;dragonflies and a variety of other invertebrates as well as both breeding and wintering bird communities and for geomorphological features at Cenarth and Cors Caron. SN785675 to SN158502 Allt Pontfaen Coed Gelli-Fawr SSSI The rich epiphytic lichen flora is of national importance, featuring many old forest species. Several notable woodland plants and invertebrates occur. Dormice are also present, as well as many species of woodland birds. SN023340/SN0 60354 Banc-Y-Mwldan SSSI This site consists of a number of lowland unimproved pastures lying along the south-eastern slope of the valley of the Afon Mwldan, where sandy glaciofluvial drift, support a remarkable assemblage of plants not known elsewhere in south-west Wales. In Ceredigion itself the presence of so many calcicolous species, several of them otherwise confined to the Ynyslas dune slacks in the north, makes this a site of outstanding floristic and ecological interest in this predominantly acidic District. The site also has an insect fauna of national significance. SN198486 Banc-Y-Warren SSSI This is an important site for fluvioglacial landforms and sediments. SN205484 and SN204475 Caeau Crug Bychan, Ty Gwyn A Lleyn Ysgaw SSSI Caeau Crug Bychan, Ty Gwyn a Llwyn Ysgaw is of special interest for the species-rich wild plant community of these arable fields and for populations of nationally scarce and regionally rare plants. The arable fields and associated banks provide important feeding areas for birds including chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax, linnet Carduelis cannabina, skylark Alauda arvensis and yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella. The quail Coturnix coturnix, which is a rare summer visitor to Ceredigion, has also been recorded at the site. SN176514, SN197521 & SN215521 Carn Ingli SSSI The site is of special interest for its oceanic heathland vegetation which is intermediate between upland and lowland heath. Rock outcrops and associated blockfields and small areas of spring-fed flushes add to the diversity. Several scarce plants, including lichens, occur as does the nationally rare damselfly, Coenagrion mercuriale. SN052371 Coed Maedie B Goddard Wildlife Trust Reserve Many butterfly species use the meadows and woodland edges, including Common Blue, Small Skipper, Gatekeeper, Ringlet, Orange Tip and Speckled Wood among others. Brown Hairstreak eggs have been observed on Blackthorn in the hedgerows. A large Badger sett can be found in one of the wooded gulleys, and Goldilocks Buttercup (4-5) also occurs on the reserve. SN210437 Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 62 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Description Grid Reference Coed Ty-Canol (Ty-Canol Wood) SSSI and National Nature Reserve Grazed woodland, boulder-strewn heathland and rock outcrops of outstanding national importance for epiphytic and saxicolous lichens.Notable insects include two rare moths that have lichen-feeding caterpillars - the dotted carpet Alcis jubata and the Brussels lace Cleorodes lichenaria, and a third scarce moth is the light knot grass Apatele menyanthidis. The purple hairstreak Quercusia quercus and silverwashed fritillary Argynnis paphia butterflies, and the kneeled skimmer dragonfly Orthetrum coerulescens breed. The terrestrial molluscs are especially diverse. Dormice, polecats and hares are present. Pied flycatchers breed in Hagr-y-coed, and amongst other birds of interest are breeding stonechats and wheatears on the heathland of Carnedd Meibion Owain. SN092369 Coed Tyddyn-Du SSSI An important example of a secondary woodland which has developed for nearly a century on former agricultural enclosures. The wood is of special interest because its composition has developed with little known interference by man, it is the largest lowland broadleaved wood in Ceredigion and it forms an extensive and diverse wildlife habitat. Twelve old enclosures are included in the site.Two still contain herb-rich pasture in their centres, with scrub invading around theiredges. In their present condition these glades are important for insects and small birds. SN272426 Coedmor National Nature Reserve Established to protect the ancient oak woodland on the northern and southern slopes of the Teifi gorge, just south of Cardigan in Ceredigion. The area is adjacent to a number of areas of wildlife interest, including the river Teifi and marshes. SN202439 Coedydd A Corsydd Aber Teifi SSSI Events during the Ice Ages are largely responsible for the wide range of rich wildlife habitats occurring in this site. Irish Sea ice is thought to have blocked the old, more westerly course of the lower Teifi with glacial deposits, forcing the river to carve a deep gorge from Llechryd to Cardigan. The sea level junction between the youthful Teifi gorge and the wide poorly drained earlier valley floor at Pentood has resulted in extensive areas of estuarine marsh. SN183458 – SN212434 Cwm Bach, Sychpant SSSI South-facing valley sides with patches of open woodland supporting a rich lichen flora including Lobarion and pre-Lobarion communities. Invertebrates, particularly butterflies, are also noteworthy. Butterflies recorded include high brown fritillary Argynnis adippe, silver-washed fritillary A. paphia, pearl-bordered fritillary Boloria euphrosyne, small pearl-bordered fritillary B. selene and holly blue Celastrina argiolus. A scarce hoverfly Arctophilia fulva, occurs and breeding birds include redstart and tree pipit. Palmate newts occur in a small pond. SN044351 Dyffryn Gwaun SSSI The largest remaining wetland in the Gwaun valley. The vegetation varies from grazed fen and bog to alder Alnus glutinosa and grey willow Salix cinerea carr and the aquatic communities of the River Gwaun. The wide mature valley is a product of erosion by subglacial meltwater and its sluggish meandering river, with its associated wetlands, is rich is plants and animals. Notable epiphytic lichens festoon the classic fen-alder carrs. Amongst the scarce invertebrates are four species of fly: Limnophila glabricula, Lasiopogon cinctus, Tabanus sudeticus, and Arctophila fulva, and two beetles: Elaphrus uliginosus and Chaetarthria seminulum. Pied flycatcher breed in Llannerch alder carr whilst otters frequent the river. SN050348 Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 63 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Description Grid Reference Felin Llwyngwair SSSI The site is of special interest as one of only three known nursery roosts for the greater horseshoe bat Rhinolophus ferrumequinum in Pembrokeshire. It is located approximately 1 km east of the coastal town of Newport. Lesser horseshoe bats Rhinolophus hipposideros in small numbers also use adjacent buildings. Brown long-eared bats Plecotus auritus and the common pipistrelle bat Pipistrellus pipistrellus have both been recorded at this site. SN069393 Gallt Llanerch – Coed Gelli-Deg SSSI (includes Llanerch Alder Carr Wildlife Trust Reserve) Ancient, semi-natural woodland exhibiting some fine mature standard oak and ash trees, at the eastern end of the Gwaun Valley sub-glacial meltwater channel. The nationally important lichen flora is particularly rich in old forest species of the Lobarion and preLobarion communities. Breeding birds include, amongst others, great spotted woodpecker, wood warbler, redstart and pied flycatcher. Dormice are present. SN056352 SN073364 Garn Wood Kilkiffeth Wood & Dan-Deri-Cwm Felin-Ban SSSI These three areas of semi-natural broadleaved woodland, with their numerous small waterfalls and gorges, clothe the steep valley sides in the middle reaches of the River Gwaun. Nationally important epiphytic lichen communities occur, with many species indicative of ancient woodland. Scarce woodland ferns are also present. SM996351, SN014340 and SN014343 Gwaun Pen-Lan SSSI A herb-rich meadow situated above the upper Teifi gorge on a damp clayey soil at an altitude of 61 metres. The great diversity of herbs and the surrounding native trees and scrub provide an excellent habitat for invertebrates, 21 species of butterfly having been recorded to date. SN204434 Gweunydd Blaencleddau SSSI Gweunydd Blaencleddau is of special interest for its complex of marshy grassland, wet-heath, blanket bog, fen and flush communities, and the significant populations of the southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale and marsh fritillary butterfly Eurodryas aurinia which these support.A large population of the nationally scarce marsh fritillary butterfly is present.The nationally rare southern damselfly is found in a few baserich flushes, favouring the slow flowing channels and seepages choked with plants such as marsh St John’s-wort. Birds recorded include reed bunting Emberiza schoeniclus, grasshopper warbler Locustella naevia and willow tit Parus montanus. SN156316 Mynydd Preseli SSSI The unenclosed common grazings of Mynydd Preseli, topped by numerous cairns or tors of hard igneous rock, are of special biological interest for their wetland, heathland and grassland vegetation and the many associated rare plants and animals. The extensive and varied grazed wet flushes and tiny streams of the lower slopes support the second largest population of the endangered southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale in Britain. The marsh clubmoss Lycopodiella inundata also occurs in these wet flushes and is more abundant here than elsewhere in Wales. A total of 17 different dragonflies have been recorded, and other notable damselflies present include the small red damselfly Ceriagrion tenellum and a scarce blue-tailed damselfly Ischnura pumilio, which has its largest known Pembrokeshire population on Gors Fawr. Mynydd Preseli also holds the largest Pembrokeshire population of the black darter dragonfly Sympetrum danae. The marsh fritillary butterfly Eurodryas aurinia breeds at Waun Isaf, where scarlet tiger moths Callimorpha dominula are also found. Otters and dippers frequent the larger watercourses. SN110330 Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 64 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Description Grid Reference Newport Cliffs SSSI Exposed, west-facing cliffs up to 100 metres in height, with diverse sea-cliff vegetation. The very rare perennial centaury Centaurium scilloides occurs in abundance at its northernmost location in Europe. Breeding birds include chough, as well as small numbers of razorbills, cormorants, shags and fulmars. Grey seals breed in the caves. SN054407 – SN064432 Pengelli Forest and Pant-Teg Wood Wildlife Trust Reserve, SSSI, and National Nature Reserve These two contiguous woods form the largest block of ancient seminatural woodland in south-west Wales. There is an exceptional variety of woodland types, including scarce communities. The plateau alder wood, which has features of oak-ash-hazel lowland plateau woodland, is the most unusual. Numerous scarce woodland plants and animals are present. The site is the most well researched forest in west Wales. Interesting insects present are the oil beetle Meloe proscarabaeus, the dark bush-cricket Pholidoptera griseoaptera and the speckled bushcricket Leptophyes punctatissima. Woodland butterflies recorded include the purple hairstreak Quercusia quercus, silver-washed fritillary Argynnis paphia and white letter hairstreak Strymonidia w-album. Pearlbordered fritillary butterflies Boloria euphrosyne occur in the small fields. Dormice are present and pied flycatchers and wood warblers breed. SN130392 Penralltfach Wildlife Trust Reserve The land falls steeply away from the minor road as well drained Oak woodland with some fine specimens of old Oak, uncommon in Pembrokeshire. A track (woodland ride) runs north/south along the bottom of the wooded area.The free draining river edge supports extensive stands of Water Avens (5-9), uncommon in Pembrokeshire. Three species of orchid have been recorded: Twayblade (6-7), Heath Spotted (6-8) and a Marsh Orchid. To further enhance the habitats, a large pond has been created near the centre of the site, although the area around has been subject to the planting of exotic shrubs and plants including Bamboo. SN144291 Rhos Pwllygawnen SSSI This is an extensive area of wet heathy pasture on shallow peat situated at the head of a tributary of Afon Cynin at 210 metres (687 feet) above sea level. The site is one of the last remaining blocks of unimproved acidic pasture in the district of Carmarthen and is representative of the type of grassland that was formerly widespread on poorly-drained soils in this area. Light grazing has produced a mosaic of sedge-rich swards amongst taller poor fen grassland and patches of wet heath. Seasonal flushing adds further diversity to the habitats present. Grasshopper warblers breed in the grey willow Salix cinerea carr that has invaded the wetter areas, and whinchats are frequent. Resident butterflies include marsh fritillary Eurodryas aurinia and small pearl-bordered fritillary Boloria selene, whilst the rare hoverfly Microdon mutabilis, occurs on the wet heath where the larvae develop inside ants' nests. SN292300 Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Page 65 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Site Name Description Grid Reference Wallis Moor SSSI The site is of special interest for its wet heath and marshy grassland and an important population of the nationally scarce marsh fritillary butterfly Eurodryas aurinia. These communities have developed over poorly drained peaty gleys around the headwaters of Spittal Brook. The low-lying areas contrast with patches of acid grassland together with tiny fragments of dry heath on the higher, better drained ground near Pen y Garn which is crowned by lichen-clothed Ordovician rock outcrops and associated large boulders. Wallis Moor supports one of the largest marsh fritillary populations in Pembrokeshire. Otters frequent Spittal Brook. SN010260 Waun Fawr, Puncheston SSSI The site is of special interest for its population of the internationally rare southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale, which breeds in this small valley mire complex alongside the upper reaches of the Afon Anghof, above Puncheston. Numerous springs and tiny streams account for the extensive flushes which are grazed by cattle and ponies, and support a large population of the damselfly. Amongst the abundant wetland plants is a significant population of the pale butter-wort Pinguicula lusitanica. Otters frequent the Afon Anghof alongside the common. SN017303 Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Appendix 2 List of species to be assessed in the desk study. The legislation column indicates whether that species is listed in Section 42 of the NERC Act 2006, has a UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP), is listed on a Schedule of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981(as amended), or is a European Protected Species and therefore protected under the Conservation (Natural Habitats) Regulations 1994 (CR). Species Legislation Mammals Brown hare Lepus europaeus UK BAP, SECTION 42 Dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius UK BAP, CR, SECTION 42, Schedule 5 Grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis Schedule 9 Harvest mouse Micromys minutes SECTION 42, UK BAP Hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus SECTION 42 Mink Mustela vison Schedule 9 Otter Lutra lutra UK BAP, CR, SECTION 42, Schedule 5 Pine marten Martes martes UK BAP, SECTION 42, Schedule 5 Polecat Mustela putorius UK BAP, SECTION 42 Rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus Red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris UK BAP, SECTION 42, Schedule 5 Water vole Arvicola terrestris UK BAP, SECTION 42, Schedule 5 Birds Black grouse Tetrao tetrix Schedule1, UK BAP and Section 42 Black tailed godwit Limosa limosa Schedule 1 and UK BAP Chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax Schedule1, UK BAP and Section 42 Corncrake Crex crex Section 42 Cuckoo Cuculus canorus UK BAP and Section 42 Curlew Numenius arquata UK BAP and Section 42 Garganey Anas querquedula Schedule 1 Golden plover Pluvialis apricaria Section 42 Goldeneye Bucephala clangula Schedule 1 Part 2 Grey partridge Perdix perdix UK BAP and Section 42 Kingfisher Alcedo atthis Schedule 1 Lapwing Vanellus vanellus UK BAP and Section 42 Little ringed plover Charadrius dubius Schedule 1 Hen harrier Circus cyaneus Schedule 1 and Section 42 Merlin Falco columbarius Schedule 1 Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus UK BAP and Section 42 Pintail Anas acuta Schedule 1 Part 2 Quail Coturnix coturnix Schedule 1 Reed bunting Emberiza schoeniclus UK BAP and Section 42 Ring ouzel Turdus torquatus UK BAP and Section 42 Ringed plover Charadrius hiaticula Section 42 Skylark Alauda arvensis UK BAP and Section 42 Song thrush Turdus philomelos UK BAP and Section 42 Spotted crake Porzana porzana Schedule 1 Page 66 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009 Species Legislation Tree pipit Anthus trivialis UK BAP and Section 42 Woodlark Lullula arborea UK BAP and Section 42 Wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix UK BAP and Section 42 Yellow wagtail Motacilla flava UK BAP and Section 42 Page 67 Potential ecological consequences of a badger removal operation in the IAPA Welsh Assembly Government Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) December 2009