The Region One Climate Change Science Digest now consists of two versions, targeting emails accordingly for
the Pacific Northwest and the Pacific Islands. FWS employees can find both Digests and past issues on the
Climate Change Sharepoint site, or send me an email. [Learning opportunities are also now provided separately.]
A national level FWS climate change e-newsletter is also available—you must register with Kate Freund to be
added to the mailing list.
Pacific Northwest Climate Change Science and Learning
Opportunities Digest
April, 2014 Issue
A monthly e-newsletter aimed at helping you stay connected to climate change science that is relevant and
integral to our conservation work. Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Please send it
our way. And many thanks to those who have provided material for this edition!
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210
Quick Links (Abstracts and Weblinks are Below)
New IPCC Report
Learning and Communications
New Interactive Education Module on Climate Change Science and Modeling
Engaging Diverse Audiences with Climate Change
New Climate Data.gov Website is Launched
North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative News
North Pacific LCC publishes annual Report
Report Identifies Research Manager Information Needs for NPLCC
Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response
Lessons from a meadow
Chickadee hybrid zone moves north
Landscape effects on gene flow for a climate-sensitive montane species, the American pika
Forests and Climate Change
Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology
Role of extreme snowfall events in interannual variability of snowfall accumulation in the western US
NorWeST Stream Temp Modeling Update
A Quick Approach to Modeling Climate Impacts for Water Resource Managers
Impacts in the third dimension
Forecasting Effects of Climate, Land Use, and Invasive Species on Salmon
Climate-Aquatics Blog: Managing with climate change: Streams in channels & fish in streams
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification/Sea Level Rise
Coquille Estuary, Ore., Vulnerability Assessment
Study Simulates Acidification to Determine Effects of Local Sources
Higher Waves Could Mean More Flooding and Erosion
West Coast Studies of Seagrasses and Carbonate Chemistry Begin
How do oceans absorb carbon dioxide?
NOAA Announces Coastal Resilience Networks Grant Proposals
Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
Normal Variability Masks Greenhouse Gas Impact— For Now
Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns
Sun's energy influences 1,000 years of natural climate variability in North Atlantic
NOAA Releases 2013 Global Climate Report
Continued Warming
New paper on a previously "stable" ice sheet in northeast Greenland that now is showing loss; implications
are more rapid sea level rise than has been projected
Preparing for Climate Change
Connect with the American Society of Adaptation Professionals
New Technical Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on Energy Supply and Use and on Infrastructure,
Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities
Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Releases Guide to Federal Climate Adaptation Programs
Report Released on Reducing Climate Risks with Natural Infrastructure
American Association for the Advancement of Science Launches Communications Campaign on Climate
Change
Federal Adaptation Planning & Implementation
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
Links to online climate services and newsletters (multiple entries)
List Servers and FWS Tools (Multiple Entries)
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New IPCC Report
The second (of three) major reports associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth
Assessment Report series is now available for download (http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/). This report is based on the
Working Group I science assessment released in September 2013 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/).
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability summarizes “the vulnerability and exposure of
human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and
limits to adaptation” both globally and regionally (i.e., the scale of North America). In addition to the full report
and the Summary for Policy Makers, the above web link for the report includes links to fact sheets, press
materials, and general background information on the IPCC and the IPCC assessment process. Top line overall
messages:
1) Warming is unequivocal, it is driving climate change now, and is largely caused by human activity.
2) Many parts of the world are already experiencing more frequent and intense weather events, which
impact water availability, food supply, health and habitat.
3) Scientists’ understanding of climate risks has strengthened and the expected impacts are profound,
especially for developing countries and rural communities.
4) The next few decades are the era of “climate responsibility” and uncertainty is not a reason to avoid
climate action.
5) It is cheaper to act on climate change now than to delay.
A few excerpts of particular relevance for fish, wildlife, plants and ecosystems:
"A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected
climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other
stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species (high confidence). (p.
15)
“Within this century, magnitudes and rates of climate change associated with medium- to high-emission
scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) pose high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change in the
composition, structure, and function of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands (medium
confidence)." (p. 16)
"Due to sea-level rise projected throughout the 21st century and beyond, coastal systems and low-lying areas
will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion (very
high confidence)." (p. 16)
"For medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), ocean acidification poses substantial risks to
marine ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs, associated with impacts on the physiology,
behavior, and population dynamics of individual species from phytoplankton to animals (medium to high
confidence)." (p.17)
For more information on the IPCC WGII report, go to: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ For recent products
summarizing climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, see:
• Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et
al. 2013)
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers
(Snover et al. 2013)
PDF documents of both regional products are available at: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/reports.shtml
For the Pacific Islands, see: Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for the 2012
Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). (Keener et al. 2012) at: http://bit.ly/1q7ve4g
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Learning and Communications
New Interactive Education Module on Climate Change Science and Modeling: The Climate Change
Resource Center (www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/) has released a new interactive online education module on basic
climate change science and climate modeling. The module was designed to make climate change science
approachable to the general public and to provide flexibility for busy professionals, but also to facilitate a
greater level of understanding and depth through interactive features. It will help the Forest Service
continue to make progress on the Climate Change Scorecard by giving all employees access to a new
education option. The module, “Climate Change Science and Modeling: What You Need to Know”, gives a
brief overview of the climate system, greenhouse gases, climate models, current climate impacts, and future
climate projections. Interactive features allow users to control their learning experience, with opportunities
to explore outside links, and learn definitions and relevant facts. The main material is followed by an activity
specific to the user’s geographical region, and completing the activity will generate a personalized
certificate. The climate change module is available at www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/climate-basics/education.shtml.
Engaging Diverse Audiences with Climate Change: Matching the right message frame to the right audience
is one of the challenges in interpreting climate change, or any complex, often controversial issue. A new
paper from the Center for Climate Change Communication presents some research-based strategies for
accomplishing this task. Based on the Center's Global Warming: Six Americas concept, the paper is a preview
of a chapter in a forthcoming book Handbook of Environment and Communication, edited by Anders Hanson
and Robbie Cox (Routledge, December 2014). See more here Download the chapter
____________________________________________________
New Climate Data.gov Website is Launched
The White House launched a new initiative March 19 to make climate data more available. See:
http://www.data.gov/climate/ The site provides data related to climate change that can help inform and
prepare America’s communities, businesses, and citizens. Initially, in this pilot phase, you can find data and
resources related to coastal flooding, sea level rise, and their impacts. Over time, you will be able to find
additional data and tools relevant to other important climate-related impacts, including risks to human
health, the food supply, and energy infrastructure.
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North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative News
North Pacific LCC publishes annual Report: The report highlights our key accomplishments in 2013
including: Adoption and implementation of a four-year implementation plan for the Science/Traditional
Ecological Knowledge Strategy; Adoption and implementation of a Communications and Outreach Strategy
and launching several communication tools; Funding a diverse array of innovative science and
information projects; and Improving how we collaborate with other partners in the region. Click here to
download the report (opens pdf file).
Report Identifies Research Manager Information Needs for NPLCC: This report summarizes results from
workshops held to address forests and forage fish, two priority conservation topics identified by the
Northern Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC). The workshops were held to help identify
and respond to the needs of resource managers across the NPLCC. [FullText] Contact: Andrea Woodward,
206-526-2534, andrea_woodward@usgs.gov
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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles & Other
Publications
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 Sharepoint CC Species/Ecosystems Response Library]
Lessons from a meadow: Presenting some of the most comprehensive information on blooming cycles over
the course of four decades reveals that the timing of events within biological communities is more complex
than previously thought. The results have implications for models designed to help predict how climate
change may affect ecosystems. Full story at http://uanews.org/story/lessons-from-a-meadow-could-impactclimate-change-models [Caradonna, P. J., A.M. Iler and D.W. Inouye. 2014. Phenological shifts reshape a
subalpine plant community. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, 4916–4921. [pdf]
Chickadee hybrid zone moves north: The chickadee hybrid zone has moved north 11.5 km over the past
decade; and climate change may be facilitating the movement. Minimum winter temperature was found to
accurately predict historical location of contact zone and these temperatures have increased over the past
decade. This study provides an informative example of the influence of climate change on a contact zone
between sibling species. [Bettina Harr, Trevor Price, Climate Change: A Hybrid Zone Moves North, Current
Biology, Volume 24, Issue 6, 17 March 2014, Pages R230-R232]
Landscape effects on gene flow for a climate-sensitive montane species, the American pika: Landscape
genetic approaches explore the interactions between landscape features and gene flow and can clarify how
organisms move among suitable habitats, but have suffered from methodological uncertainties. Researchers
used a landscape genetic approach to determine how landscape and climate-related features influence gene
flow for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park. Pikas are heat intolerant and
restricted to cool microclimates; thus, range contractions have been predicted as climate changes. The
correlation between landscape variables and genetic distance was evaluated using partial Mantel tests in a
causal modelling framework, and used spatially explicit simulations to evaluate methods of model
optimization including a novel approach based on relative support and reciprocal causal modelling. The
study found that gene flow was primarily restricted by topographic relief, water and west-facing aspects,
suggesting that physical restrictions related to small body size and mode of locomotion, as well as exposure
to relatively high temperatures, limit pika dispersal in this alpine habitat. The model optimization
successfully identified landscape features influencing resistance in the simulated data for this landscape, but
underestimated the magnitude of resistance. This is the first landscape genetic study to address the
fundamental question of what limits dispersal and gene flow in the American pika. [Jessica A. Castillo,
Clinton W. Epps, Anne R. Davis, Samuel A. Cushman, Molecular Ecology (2014) 23, 843–856, doi:
10.1111/mec.12650]
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Forests
Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership is a new US Forest Service led science-management collaboration
with the goals of: Increasing climate change awareness; Assessing vulnerability of cultural and natural
resources; and Developing science-based adaptation strategies and incorporating them into management of
federal lands in the Blue Mountains. Learn more and join the list server: BMAP
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership is a new US Forest Service led science-management collaboration
with the goals of: 1)Assessing vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem services to climate change;
and 2)Developing science-based adaptation strategies that can be used by national forests to understand
and mitigate the negative effects of climate change. Learn more and join the list server:
http://adaptationpartners.org/nrap/
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Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint C.C. Water Resources Library]
Role of extreme snowfall events in interannual variability of snowfall accumulation in the western United
States: Research indicates the importance of extreme snowfall events in shaping interannual variability in
water resources and suggest that improved predictive ability may inform better water resource
management now and in the coming decades…. Water resources in the western United States are
contingent on interannual variations in snowpack. Interannual snowpack variability has been attributed to
large-scale climate patterns including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however, the contribution of
snowfall frequency and extreme snowfall events to this variability are less well quantified. Long-term
records from Snowpack Telemetry and Cooperative Observer Program stations in the 11 western states
were used to investigate these relationships by considering the number of snowfall days and snowfall water
equivalent (SFE) of extreme snowfall events. The top decile of snowfall events contributed 20–38% of annual
SFE, depending on the region. An average of 65% and 69% of the interannual variability in annual SFE was
explained by snowfall days and SFE of top decile snowfall events, respectively, with extreme events being a
more significant predictor at most stations. The latitudinal dipole in SFE during ENSO phases results from
changes in snowfall frequency and extreme events. In the Pacific Northwest, above normal SFE during La
Niña winters was a product of both larger contributions from extremes and more snowfall days, while below
normal SFE during El Niño winters was primarily associated with a substantial reduction in extremes…. [A. C.
Lute and J. T. Abatzoglou, Accepted Online: 13 MAR 2014, Water Resources Research, Published Online : 2
APR 2014 01:16PM EST, DOI : 10.1002/2013WR014465]
NorWeST Stream Temp Modeling Update: the stream temperature climate scenarios for the Mid-Columbia
basin developed from data the local aquatics community contributed are now available on the NorWeST
website (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html). (See the website for other
completed and ‘in progress’ basins.) The NorWeST project is funded by the Great Northern and North
Pacific LCC’s and the goal is to develop an accurate, high-resolution set of climate scenarios to aid in more
efficient climate vulnerability assessments, temperature monitoring & interagency coordination. The
temperature database was compiled from hundreds of biologists and hydrologists working for dozens of
resource agencies. These temperature data are being used with spatial statistical stream network models to
develop an accurate and consistent set of climate scenarios for all streams. Temperature data and model
outputs, registered to NHDPlus stream lines, are posted to the website after QA/QC procedures and
development of the final temperature model within a river basin (example interactive temperature map).
A Quick Approach to Modeling Climate Impacts for Water Resource Managers [From the Climate
CIRCulator subscribe here: http://occri.net/publications] Water managers could someday have a quicker
way to apply climate scenarios to management decisions at the river basin where they’re needed, new
research suggests. In a recent paper in the journal Climatic Change, researchers describe a technique they
created for the Colorado River Basin that employs a “sensitivity-based” approach. These calculations
involved running a hydrologic model using the basin’s historical climate (1970-1999) with different
perturbations, in effect, turning up the heat and (separately) changing the precipitation. The difference in
streamflow per degree of warming or precipitation change is the “sensitivity.” Then, knowing the hydrologic
model's response to changes in temperature and precipitation, an estimate of the response to any
combination of temperature and precipitation change is easy to derive.
The researchers characterize this approach as a “short cut” that could be used in conjunction with more
computationally intensive, conventional modeling, which they call a “full-simulation approach.” The
advantage of the sensitivity-based approach is that simple simulations with the hydrologic model can form
the basis for pretty good estimates from a large sample of climate changes.
In the sensitivity-based approach on the Colorado River Basin, Vano and Lettenmaier first calculated
sensitivities, then applied their sensitivities to temperature and precipitation changes from 112 different
global climate model simulations, producing a range of projected annual streamflow for the basin.
When the researchers compared their approach to full-simulation modeling, they found the sensitivitybased approach closely mirrored the results of full-simulation modeling. Vano and Lettenmaier are currently
completing a manuscript using a similar approach for the Pacific Northwest that evaluates long-term
changes in seasonal streamflow. [Vano, Julie A., Dennis P. Lettenmaier (2014). A sensitivity-based approach
to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge, Climatic Change, 122 (4) 621-634, doi:
10.1007/s10584-013-1023-x, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-1023-x ]
Impacts in the third dimension: Despite reports of no trends in snow- and rainfall, rivers in the northwest
USA have run lower and lower in recent decades. A closer look at high- and low-altitude precipitation
suggests that observational networks have missed a decline in mountain rain and snow that can explain the
discrepancy. [Mike Dettinger, USGS, Feb 9, 2014, news and views, Nature GeoScience]
Forecasting Effects of Climate, Land Use, and Invasive Species on Salmon: Elevated water temperature is
one of the foremost water quality problems for rivers in the United States, and climate-related warming
may further intensify this problem. To complicate matters, warming is likely to interact with other factors
that threaten aquatic species. USGS landscape ecologist Christian Torgersen and colleagues studied how
non-native smallmouth bass, riparian land-use, and climate change will act together to affect Chinook
salmon in the John Day River Basin in Oregon. Researchers forecasted stream temperatures and used
habitat models to predict how salmon and bass distributions would change as streams warmed. Findings
suggest that shade from riparian vegetation may decrease the risks of invasion by smallmouth bass in a
warmer climate. This work highlights the potential for restoration to mitigate some climate change effects,
especially in systems with altered riparian vegetation and non-native species. [Lawrence, D.J., StewartKoster, B., Olden, J.D., Ruesch, A.S., Torgersen, C.E., Lawler, J.J., 2013, The interactive effects of climate
change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon: Ecological
Applications, http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-0753.1]
Climate-Aquatics Blog Blog #55: Managing with climate change, Part 2: Streams in channels & fish in
streams: “Whiskey is fer drinkin, water is fer fightin” Or so goes the saying from spaghetti westerns about
the importance of water in the semi-arid West. Water’s always been a touchy subject where it’s dry, and will
become even more so as human populations continue to grow. Since fish have a certain proclivity for the
substance too, our use of it sometimes puts them in a bit of a bind. A simple and highly effective
management strategy, therefore, is keeping water in streams and fish in those same streams. That’s a lot
trickier than it sounds given the forces at play, but there are ways to do both…. (Dan Isaak, USFS RMRS,
contact Dan to join >6,000 people on the email list: disaak@fs.fed.us)
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Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint CC Coastal Library]
Coquille Estuary, Ore., Vulnerability Assessment: A new report provides an assessment of the Coquille
Estuary’s vulnerabilities to the effects of climate variability and climate change. Many climate-related
changes have been observed and projected for coastal communities, habitats, and aquatic and terrestrial
resources of estuaries. Working with local stakeholders and experts, the project identified potential impacts
and projections specific to the Coquille Estuary and what can be done to help sustain Estuary resources –
protecting public investments in conservation. Other important public and private resources may be
affected by climate issues and while we hope that products from this project are useful to broader interests,
this project’s capacity and funding is limited to detailed analyses of habitats and key fish and wildlife species.
Project website: http://ecoadapt.org/programs/awareness-to-action/Lower-Coquille-Vulnerability-Project
Study Simulates Acidification to Determine Effects of Local Sources: The Washington Department of
Ecology is using a water quality model to evaluate the effects of current and potential future nutrient loads
on dissolved oxygen levels in the Salish Sea. While CO2 emissions are the primary cause of lowering the pH
of seawater, regional human contributions may worsen the pH and aragonite saturation state, which could
impair key components of the food web. The Puget Sound model, a computerized prediction tool, will help
answer whether human sources of nutrients in and around the Salish Sea are significantly impacting water
quality and how much to reduce human sources of nutrients to protect water quality in the Salish Sea.
The study will help decision-makers use resources wisely and guide where additional research or action is
necessary. The draft report, Dissolved Oxygen Assessment for Puget Sound and the Straits: Impacts of
Current and Future Human Nitrogen Sources and Climate Change through 2070 was completed in January.
Higher Waves Could Mean More Flooding and Erosion [From the Climate CIRCulator subcribe here:
http://occri.net/publications] Global and regional sea levels have been increasing because of melting land
ice and because the oceans expand as they absorb heat. But it's not just the average sea level that matters.
Damage also is caused by a few hours of the highest waves in a decade.
A study by Muyin Wang and colleagues using 20 global climate models from the latest Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP 5) found that on top of increasing sea levels, coastal communities on the
West Coast may also have to contend with larger waves. Under a high-emissions scenario, the study shows
an increase over the 21st century in significant wave height (the average of the highest one-third of waves)
in the North Pacific Ocean during winter, but a decrease in summer. Also, the largest waves with odds of
occurring once every 10 years may be more likely to occur once every six to eight years by the end of the
century, the study suggests.
When compared to observations, the models reproduced the 20th century wave climate reasonably well.
This is one measure of model accuracy. But the paper did not report on any patterns or changes that may
have occurred during that same period. However, a 2010 analysis of buoy data by CIRC’s Peter Ruggiero
found that significant wave heights off Oregon and Washington had increased by just over a half-inch per
year since the 1970s. Furthermore, when considering only the five greatest significant wave heights, this
rate increased to nearly 3 inches per year. Ruggiero also is leading a study to understand how future wave
heights and sea-level rise will impact Tillamook County on the northern Oregon Coast.
Wave heights are an important consideration for coastal communities because they can compound existing
flooding and erosion problems. They also may produce higher total water levels beyond those associated
with future global sea-level rise. You can learn more about this project here
[Wang, Xiaolan L., Yang Feng, Val R. Swail (2014). Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using
multimodel CMIP5 simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (3), 1026–1034, doi:
10.1002/2013GL058650, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058650/abstract]
West Coast Studies of Seagrasses and Carbonate Chemistry Begin: Research exploring how seagrasses in
Washington, Oregon, and California bays and estuaries affect carbonate chemistry are due to start this
spring and summer. The principal investigators are George Waldbusser of Oregon State University, who will
focus on Netarts Bay; Jennifer Ruesink of the University of Washington, working in collaboration with the
Washington Department of Natural Resources at several sites; and Tessa Hill, University of California, Davis,
studying Bodega and Tomales Bays. Sea Grant is funding the California and Oregon research.
The three will be using different instrumentation, techniques, and measuring systems in a variety of venues,
looking to identify habitats and conditions with the greatest potential for local reduction of carbon dioxide
dissolved in water. Collectively, they will shed light on how fast seagrasses can draw down carbon dioxide
through their photosynthesis, whether this carbon is sequestered longer term, and therefore the potential
for primary producers to improve water conditions for sensitive shell-forming organisms.
Ruesink notes that some seagrass habitats may be net emitters of CO2 by trapping organic material that
decomposes, releasing the gas. Similarly Waldbusser will be comparing native eel grass and Japanese eel
grass habitats as he tries to understand the “carbon budget” of Netarts Bay. The scientists will make their
findings known to policymakers, stakeholders, and the public in late 2015 to enable comparisons at broad
geographic scales from a variety of estuaries.
How do oceans absorb carbon dioxide? Using satellite images, researchers have identified the role of
plankton in the global carbon cycle. The ocean's biological pump, exports organic carbon from the upper
part of the ocean into the deeper layers below, "through sinking particulate matter, largely from
zooplankton feces and aggregates of algae," say researchers, who published their findings in a paper titled
"Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models" in
the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles.
NOAA Announces Coastal Resilience Networks Grant Proposals: NOAA is soliciting grant proposals to
enhance the resilience of coastal communities to natural hazard and climate risks. Proposals should provide
beneficial public outcomes for coastal communities related to addressing existing and future risks to the
natural environment, infrastructure, local economies, and vulnerable populations. Proposals must also
leverage, enhance, or create a human or technical network in which one or more coastal hazard issues can
be addressed through partnerships to enhance communication, cooperation, coordination, and/or
collaboration. Partnerships must include a range of partners from various institutions, disciplines, and
sectors at the local, state, and federal level. Eligible funding applicants are: regional authorities, nonprofit
and for-profit organizations, institutions of higher education, and state, territorial, and county/local
governments. The funding applicants must conduct projects in one or more of the following three U.S.
regions: the U.S. Pacific Islands, Gulf of Mexico Coast, and West Coast. Applications are due by April 11,
2014. To learn more, click here.
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Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
[For FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Climate Change Library]
Normal Variability Masks Greenhouse Gas Impact— For Now [From the Climate CIRCulator subscribe here:
http://occri.net/publications] Simple physics says that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. It
follows that a warming climate should lead to heavier rain and snowstorms, leading in turn to greater
threats to property, transportation and lives. Various studies of past changes in extreme precipitation in the
Northwest have reached different conclusions depending on the period of analysis. But they usually agree
that extreme precipitation events will become more frequent through the 21st century.
Researchers Emily Janssen and colleagues recently examined weather station data across the United States,
along with simulations from global climate models, to see if a fingerprint of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions could already be detected in the observations. They defined one type of extreme event as a
two-day precipitation total that was exceeded once every five years, on average. For the Northwest region,
they found no significant trend in the frequency of extreme events between 1901 and 2012. The global
climate models also failed to show a statistically significant trend over this period.
Although the researchers conclude that the GHG signal cannot yet be distinguished from the natural
variability of Northwest climate, they project that as GHG concentrations rise, extreme precipitation may
change noticeably. For example, under a business-as-usual GHG emissions scenario, the two-day
precipitation total that happened every five years in the first half of the 20th century may occur every year
and a half, on average, by the end of the 21st century. These projections are consistent with a previous
analysis of precipitation extremes from regional climate models for the Western United States by Francina
Dominguez and colleagues. [Janssen, Emily, Donald J. Wuebbles, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Seth C. Olsen, Alex
Goodman (2014). Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the
contiguous United States, Earth's Future, 2 (2), 99–113, doi: 10.1002/2013EF000185] [Dominguez, F., E.
Rivera, D. P. Lettenmaier, and C. L. Castro (2012) Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western
United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39
(L05803), doi:10.1029/2011GL050762]
Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: The Arctic has been undergoing
significant changes in recent years. Average temperatures are rising twice as fast as they are elsewhere in
the world. The extent and thickness of sea ice is rapidly declining. Such changes may have an impact on
atmospheric conditions outside the region. Several hypotheses for how Arctic warming may be influencing
mid-latitude weather patterns have been proposed recently. For example, Arctic warming could lead to a
weakened jet stream resulting in more persistent weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Or Arctic sea ice
loss could lead to an increase of snow on high-latitude land, which in turn impacts the jet stream resulting in
cold Eurasian and North American winters. These and other potential connections between a warming Arctic
and mid-latitude weather are the subject of active research. [National Research Council. Linkages Between
Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press, 2014.]
Sun's energy influences 1,000 years of natural climate variability in North Atlantic: Changes in the sun's
energy output may have led to marked natural climate change in Europe over the last 1,000 years, according
to researchers at Cardiff University. Scientists studying seafloor sediments found that changes in the Sun's
activity can have a considerable impact on the ocean-atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic, with
potential effects on regional climate. Full story at http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/articles/solar-activityinfluences-climate-change-say-scientists-12677.html
NOAA Releases 2013 Global Climate Report: The average global temperature for 2013 tied as the fourth
warmest year since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA scientists. It also marked the 37th
consecutive year with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average annual
temperature was 1976. Including 2013, all 13 years of the 21st century (2001-2013) rank among the 15
warmest in the 134-year period of record. The three warmest years on record are 1998, 2005, and
2010. This analysis is from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. To access the
summary and full report, visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-releases-2013-global-climate-report.
Continued Warming: A new study shows Earth's climate likely will continue to warm during this century on
track with previous estimates, despite the recent slowdown in the rate of global warming. The research
hinges on a new and more detailed calculation of the sensitivity of Earth's climate to the factors that cause it
to change, such as greenhouse gas emissions. The study found Earth is likely to experience roughly 20
percent more warming than estimates that were largely based on surface temperature observations during
the past 150 years. [Drew T. Shindell. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nature
Climate Change, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2136]
New paper on a previously "stable" ice sheet in northeast Greenland that now is showing loss;
implications are more rapid sea level rise than has been projected. User-friendly media summary:
http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2014/mar/16/new-greenland-ice-melt-fuels-sea-levelrise/#axzz2wBISW1Us Published scientific paper:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nclimate2161.pdf
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Preparing for Climate Change
Connect with the American Society of Adaptation Professionals: The American Society of Adaptation
Professionals (ASAP) connects leading professionals from a variety of sectors working to increase climate
resilience across the United States. Initially created in 2011, and formally launched in 2013, ASAP provides a
platform and forum for climate adaptation leaders to interact, participate in cutting edge research, develop
guidance for adaptation, and collaborate with their colleagues across the country. The society builds off the
strengths of its members and focuses on connecting adaptation professionals across the United States.
Membership is free for 2014. To learn more, visit: http://adaptationprofessionals.org/.
New Technical Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on Energy Supply and Use and on
Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: The U.S. Department of Energy has contributed two
reports to the National Climate Assessment that examine vulnerabilities of infrastructures, urban systems,
and energy supply to extreme weather and other events associated with climate change. The reports
consider the risks posed by extreme events across the communications, transportation, and energy
sectors. To view the report, "Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use," visit:
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/eess/EnergySupplyUse.pdf. To view the report, "Climate Change and
Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities," visit: http://www.esd.ornl.gov/eess/Infrastructure.pdf
Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Releases Guide to Federal Climate Adaptation Programs
Federal agencies with responsibilities for natural resources have, over the last five to ten years, begun to
develop internal programs, tools, and networks for climate change adaptation science. These efforts have
led to a large array of tools intended for use in climate adaptation planning. The Association of Fish and
Wildlife Agencies has cited the need for an understanding of these federal resources to which state fish and
wildlife agency managers can refer to when they need climate adaptation information. The goal of this
guide is to utilize resources already provided at the federal level. To access the report, visit:
http://www.aswm.org/pdf_lib/resource_guide_to_federal_climate_adaptation_programs.pdf
Report Released on Reducing Climate Risks with Natural Infrastructure: Developed by The Nature
Conservancy's California Program, the report, "Reducing Climate Risks with Natural Infrastructure,"
evaluates nine green infrastructure case studies in California and makes a case for conservation as an
effective tool to reduce risks of a changing climate. Each case study improves flood or coastal protection,
provides habitat and preserves or restores the natural dynamics between water and land. The report
reviews the available data on the costs and benefits of each case and, where possible, compares this
information with the costs and benefits of a gray alternative at the same site. To view the report, visit:
http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/california/ca-green-vs-grayreport-2.pdf
American Association for the Advancement of Science Launches Communications Campaign on Climate
Change: The American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world's largest non-government
general science membership organization, has launched an initiative - "What We Know: The Reality Risks,
and Responses to Climate Change," dedicated to ensuring that the reality, risks, and response to climate
change are communicated to the public. The initiative will include outreach to scientists, economists,
community leaders, policy makers and the public at large over the following months via meetings and media
outreach. To learn more, visit: http://whatweknow.aaas.org/
Federal Adaptation Planning & Implementation: The U.S. Global Change Research Program launched a
website with resources for federal agencies to plan and implement climate change adaptation strategies.
Click here to learn more.
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Climate and Weather Reports and Services
The Office of the Washington State Climatologist issues a monthly newsletter that summarizes the WA
climate for the previous month, includes a precipitation and temperature outlook, and also includes a brief
summary of an interesting aspect of the weather or climate of WA, among a few other sections: See
www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter for copies and to join the listserv.
PNW Climate Outlook: This quarterly report from the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research
Consortium (CIRC) provides a seasonal wrap up of relevant regional issues along with an outlook for the
coming season in Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Western Montana. To subscribe send an email to John
Stevenson.
Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard: this website provides up to date climate and weather data
and forecasts/outlooks for the Great Basin including temperature, precipitation, drought, snowpack and
hydrologic information. (Some of the information includes the entire western U.S.) The Dashboard is a joint
effort amongst the Western Regional Climate Center, California and Nevada Applications Program, the USDA
Farm Service Agency and the Great Basin LCC.
NOAA Climate Connection E-Newsletter: Free monthly e-newsletter designed to increase climate literacy
and communication capacity for NOAA and its partners. Subscription requests can be sent to
NOAAClimateConnection@noaa.gov. Click here to view the June 2013 NOAA Climate Connection enewsletter.
NOAA’s State of the Climate Monthly Update
NOAA Monthly Drought Outlook: The monthly drought outlook complements the weekly drought condition
updates via the U.S. Drought Monitor. See this site.
NOAA Climate Portal: http://www.climate.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org
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List Servers
ClimateNews-- is a snapshot from British Columbia’s Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource
Operations, provides new and emerging climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in the natural
resource sector. Contact: katharine.mccallion@gov.bc.ca
Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)
Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington)
EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter
LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website) and the national LCC Network newsletter
Ocean Acidification Report
OneNOAA Science Webinars
North Pacific LCC Listserve – North Pacific Tidings - important news and announcements; and NPLCC Climate
Science Digest - new science/information affecting natural and cultural resources.
NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): send email danielle_larock@fws.gov
Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) (British Columbia) Climate News Scan- a weekly summary of the
major climate-change related science, technology, and policy advances of direct relevance to the BC provincial
and the Canadian federal governments and more generally to businesses and civil society
PointBlue Weekly Ecology, Climate Change and Related e-Newsletter: Send request to ecohen@prbo.org
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Send request to kathy@uoregon.edu
US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates
FWS Resources and Tools
FWS Pacific Region employees can access journal articles and publications archived at the Region’s Climate
Change Sharepoint site (links below). The Region's Climate Change Science Synthesis document uses these
new findings. (The blog is used to highlight changes made to the document.)
> Home Page
> Read this report in Word/Find previous reports
> Document library (journal articles, reports, etc., updated weekly)
> Best available climate change science-- R1 synthesis (updated weekly)
> Blog (provides updates on new journal articles, R1 examples on use of climate science in decision making,
etc.)
> Use of Climate science: Regional examples
FWS Climate Change Response: How do partnership efforts such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy fit into the Service's overall response
to accelerating climate change? How is our agency reducing its carbon footprint? What is our agency doing
now to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife and plants? Learn more
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Natural systems and landscapes are impacted by increasing land use
pressures and widespread resource threats amplified by a rapidly changing climate. These changes are
occurring at an unprecedented pace and scale. By leveraging resources and strategically targeting science to
inform conservation decisions and actions, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of
partnerships working in unison to ensure the sustainability of America’s land, water, wildlife, and cultural
resources. Learn more
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy: The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy will provide a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and science-based
practices—for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, habitats and
associated ecological processes across geographic scales. Learn more
FWS Climate Change Information Toolkit: A key part of the Service's climate change strategy is to inform
FWS staff about the impacts of accelerating climate change and to engage partners and others in seeking
collaborative solutions. Through shared knowledge and communication, we can work together to reduce the
impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats. Here are some resources that can
help.
Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership
with the National Park Service and with input from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, developed a kit for use
when talking with the public about how climate change is affecting our nation's wildlife and public lands.
Learn more .
Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series: The FWS and National Wildlife
Federation have developed a series of web conferences to increase communication and transfer of technical
information between conservation professionals regarding the growing challenges of climate change. Learn
more
(FWS employees only)
NCTC Climate Change Resource Library: The NCTC Climate Change Resource Library provides selected
citations to peer-reviewed journal articles, documents, books, theses, presentations, and Websites on the
effect of climate change on North American fish, wildlife and habitats. FWS employees can access the library
here
For more information on how the Service is working with others to conserve the nature of America in a
changing climate, visit http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/
If you have received this Digest from a colleague and want to be added to the mailing list, send an email to me
at: david_patte@fws.gov