THE COURSE ON INDUCTIVE LOGIC
Course description (outline). This course is an introduction to Inductive Logic and it is read to
philosophy students in their second year of learning. The course consists of 11 lectures and 10
seminars. The main aim of the course is to acquaint students with the approaches to
constructing Inductive logic and with some important philosophical issues surrounding the
theoretical foundations of induction and probability. Special attention will be paid to the
significance of Inductive logic for such philosophical disciplines as philosophy of science,
epistemology and philosophical logic.
Course textbook: Skyrms B. Choice and Chance. An Introduction to Inductive Logic. 4th Edition.
Wadsworth, 2000 (its xerox copies, In the form of Reader, are available at the university
library)
Other course texts: Hacking I. An Introduction to Inductive Logic and Probability. Cambridge
University press, 2001; Бочаров В.А., Маркин В.И. Введение в логику. М.: ИД «Форум»ИНФРА-М, 2008.
Syllabus. The course will cover the following topics.
Section I. The subject of Inductive Logic (the main differences between deductive and inductive
inferences, the key concepts of validity, soundness, argument strength).
Section II. The Basics of Inductive Logic.
Topic 1. Kinds of inductive arguments (complete and incomplete enumerative induction,
statistical induction, eliminative induction, abduction, reasoning by analogy, etc.).
Topic 2. The problem of Induction (Hume’s argument, the main ways of justifying induction,
Goodman’s new riddle of induction).
Topic 3. Methods of experimental inquiry (Mill’s method of agreement, method of difference,
joint method of agreement and difference, method of concomitant variation, method of
residues; causation and the logic of necessary and sufficient conditions; G.H. von Wright’s
theoretical reconstruction of the methods of experimental inquiry).
Section III. The Basic Ideas of probability and their application to inductive reasoning.
Topic 1. The kinds of probability (empirical and epistemic probability; the relation between
epistemic and inductive probability).
Topic 2. The Probability calculus (the main rules of the Probability calculus, the concepts of
conditional probability and independence of statements; Bayes’ theorem and its significance
for Inductive logic).
Topic 3. The main interpretations of probability (classical probability, frequency-type
probability, probability as a rational degree of belief, probability and utility).
Course prerequisites. Since the course is part of the general course on Logic it is assumed that
students are acquainted with Aristotelian, Propositional and Predicate Logics and have some
idea of the mathematical theory of probability.
By the end of the course the students who pass the final exam will know
-
the differences between deductive and inductive inferences;
the key concepts of inductive logic and the main forms of inductive reasoning;
the basic rules of the probability calculus and how to usr them to calculate probabilities
of some inductive inferences;
the main philosophical accounts of the nature of induction and probability.
In addition to homework assignments (9 total) there will be a written in-class work and a final
oral examination. Grades will be calculated as follows:
30% - class participation/attendance + homework assignments
30% - written in-class work
40% - final oral examination.
Author. Prof. Lolita Bronislavovna Makeeva.
Type Examination – an oral examination.