Space 2050
By Joseph N. Pelton
Former Dean, International Space University, Director Emeritus, Space & Advanced
Communications Research Institute (SACRI), George Washington University
“Space is a transformative realm that has impacted how humans think of themselves and our role
in the universe from the “Big Bang” to our living on “Spaceship Earth”. Application satellites as
well as space research and exploration have improved almost every aspect of our lives and
accelerated our growth into becoming a technological society. The Space Age has led not only to
a wide range of new “high tech” products and services, but indeed to a number of new fields of
research and a growing range of satellite applications. Today education, health care, weather
prediction, aviation safety, navigation, storm warnings, map making, global communications,
global business and thousands of industrial products are enriched by space applications.
Over the past eight years, the global space economy grew a whopping 48 percent - from $164
billion in 2004 to $304 billion in 2012 or a total of 85%. This has represented an average annual
industry growth rate that has varied between 5 percent to nearly 8 percent for 2012. As an
industry it is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world
Today, the space economy is also predominantly commercial. Commercial satellite services and
commercial satellite infrastructure together account for about $200 billion of the total.i
But the impact of the commercial space industry on the global economy is much more pervasive
than can be detected from its economic footprint. There is no indicator that shows how many
billions of dollars and many thousands of lives are saved by virtue of weather satellite
forecasting. The impact of satellites is magnified in many ways-- especially in developing
economies. The Reserve Bank of India recognizes that the fact there is about 1 ATM per 15,000
residents is holding back their economy. They are currently seeking to grow the number of
ATMs in India from about 100,000 to 165,000 in a short period of time. More than one third of
these ATM will be provided via broadband services from communications satellites. Already
billions of dollars of banking, credit card and ATM transactions occur in India alone. World
wide these satellite mediated transactions run into the trillions of dollars. In China, India, Africa
and Latin America the importance of satellite plays a critical role in providing banking,
education, health and Internet-related services. In short the impact of satellites is pervasive world
wide, but it is much larger in developing than in so-called developed economies.ii
In Africa broadband satellite connections to the cloud are provided for instance to connect the
African Development Bank sites across that vast continent where terrestrial communications and
IT systems are greatly lacking. The current network of 32 satellite access points has just been put
under a new contract to expand to 36 locations for the African Development Bank. These ADB
broadband connections are subjected to special quality of service, security and other conditions
to protect the integrity of the system. Only satellite broadband can today create such a secure and
reliable network for all member countries.iii
This is to say that economists, using traditional economic metrics as to “industry size”, tend to
totally miss the “value” of space to global civilization. This is not only because of the “spin off”
and enabling aspects of space technology, but because of its leveraged impact on other aspects of
the economy such as banking, insurance, transportation services, and educational and health
services. Finally there is something that few economists consider, but which may be the highest
value of space-based services of all. This is risk minimization—the ability of space technologies
to prevent the elimination of our species and the protection of essential infrastructure on which
modern civilization depends. Without satellites we would be much more devastated by
hurricanes and monsoons, not be aware of the ozone hole, La Nina and La Nino, the full effects
of global warning, or be able to undertake programs to help defend the world’s communications,
energy, and IT systems against solar weather, coronal mass ejections, potentially hazardous
asteroids or dangerous near earth objects.
In a less dramatic way, space based services are key to disaster recovery and response. Damage
assessment, risk prevention, emergency communications restoration, aircraft takeoff and landing
safety, and mapping and positioning plus many other critical services are now very much
dependent of satellite communications, space navigation systems, and remote sensing systems.
But let’s examine the link between space activities and the possibility the survival of human
civilization. The truth is that advanced human civilization may not be able to sustain itself much
beyond its current “likely limits” of another few centuries—without the benefit of space systems
and technologies.
The world as we know it will be dramatically different in less than four decades. We will shift from being
53% urban to perhaps 70% urban in just this brief period of time. In 1800 there were some 800 million
people on planet Earth. By 1900 there were 1.8 billion and in the year 2000 there were almost 7 billion
people. If we take all of the world’s population that will be added to the globe in the next 37 years and
add another 600 million people on top of this number, this is the number that will represent the population
growth of cities.iv By the end of the 21st century global population will have surged to somewhere
between 10 and 12 billion people according to United Nation’s projections. Since it unclear as to how
effectively the extended life time of humans has been factored into these numbers, the probable result
may well be at the high end of these projections. (See Figure 1)
Figure 1: UN Projections of Global Demographics
As we see sustained growth in the world’s population and runaway growth in the world’ megacities (i.e.
cities of more than 10 million) we find a disturbing pattern of many new urban areas springing up without
sufficient water, sewage, transportation systems, educational and health care systems. On top of these
mega-trends we also are seeing super-automation, computer algorithms replacing more and more service
jobs a net shrinkage of employment opportunity—especially in low-skill jobs that require a minimum of
education and training. The World Bank experts in urban growth have estimated that 80% of the new
development in most megacities will represent slums that often breed crime, health problems, and high
rates of unemployment.v In these same areas birth rates are often high. The challenges that various
megacities face vary enormously. Nevertheless there is a fair amount of data from around the world,
gathered from such cities as Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata, Dhaka, Lagos, Sao Paulo, Karachi, Cairo,
Guangzhou, Manila, etc. that suggest the following conclusion that is expressly stated in my recent book
“The Safe City: Living Free in a Dangerous World” . This conclusion is that urban sprawl is bad, urban
density is good, but super urban density becomes bad again. The Home Minister of India has indicated
that the super density of the world’s largest cities is overwhelming the ability of first responders to
respond to urban disasters and provide a safe environment for citizens. Super urban density when
combined with unchecked demographic growth, for instance, is out-stripping all of the advances that
“green technologies” are making in combating climate change.vi
80
70
Population (in Millions)
60
50
40
30
1975
20
2000
10
2015
0
2050
Figure 2: Selected Megacities from around the World and their projected growth
We live on a quite finite six sextillion ton world with a limited supply of natural resources and an
atmosphere that is increasingly polluted. Carbon footprints, especially in cities, in most cases, continue to
grow apace. We see an unsustainable pattern of worldwide statistics when we look at a range of critical
statistics: global demographics; energy, water and food consumption; environmental viability; life time
extension; super automation and lack of job creation; governmental effectiveness (or lack thereof); and
social and cultural patterns of conflict.
We are left with few options. It is only human technology and innovation and creation of new ways to
utilize the capabilities and resources provided to us by planet Earth, near space, and by the solar system.
Only a stabilized global population, more effective educational and health care systems, and new
technology can possibly allow a positive way forward in the 21st century--and beyond. Continued
unmodified economic and population growth--without significant new types of technology intervention-with much of it being space based—could lead to dire consequences. Without major shifts in
demographics, education, and technology we could see the end of the human species in an alarming short
time. The recent announcement that the carbon gas build up on our planet had increased by 1.4% in the
past year suggests that the problem we face are now going exponential.
Our species faces a dark rendezvous with cosmic history unless we craft a range of new strategies. These
strategies must be buoyed with a dynamic range of new technologies that broadens and extends networkbased tele-education and tele-health systems. There must be targeted educational systems and
technological advances that allow a new range of birth-control capabilities to bring all national growth
rates below 1% through tax incentives or penalties, incentives to villages to curtail birth rates, etc. There
is a need to create new green energy systems—some of which can and should be space-based. Finally we
need to look to totally new technologies such as space-based systems that can transfer excess heat to outer
space. These initiatives and more are needed to protect us from a range of cosmic threats that could
devastate or even destroy modern human civilization. Assuming we can make these adaptations to save
the bio-sphere that we need to survive as a species we also need to develop new technologies that can also
save human civilization from natural disasters such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and potentially
hazardous comets, asteroids and meteorites that could create devastating threats to our survival as well.
Without significant innovation and the rapid creation of new 21st century space capabilities it is entirely
possible that the human species to will not be able to sustain itself and overcome today’s challenges.
There have been to date at least five mass extinction events. Each one of these events has managed to
eliminate 30% to 65% of the plant and animal species on our planet. The so-called K-T event that
occurred 65.5 million years ago and was thus the most recent--wiped out the greatest number of species
with the greatest efficiency. Less that 1% of all species that have ever existed on Earth survive today.
Four of the extinction events were due to heat rise and chemical changes and the other was triggered
much more rapidly by a massive asteroid strike. This event occurred when an asteroid, some 5 kilometers
in diameter, impacted along the Gulf of Mexico and created a huge cloud that blocked out the sun and
killed vegetation all over the world and wiped out the dinosaurs.vii
So what is the relevance of all this to space? It is space technology and applications that may well
constitute critical components of a survival strategy for planet Earth and the ability of humanity to sustain
itself against threats that comes with super-urban crowding, over-heating of the bio-sphere, the challenges
of inadequate health care and educational systems, insufficient and non-sustainable demands for energy,
food, water, and an ever “higher standard of living”. In parallel the dangers that come from asteroids,
comets, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, reversal of the Earth’s magnetic poles, a significant reduction
of the Earth’s protective geomagnetic field, and a greatest reduced protective shield by altered Van Allen
Belts are truly serious threats that could have economic effects calculated in the trillions of dollars (US)
or in the most catastrophic conditions actually mean the sudden end of human civilization.
The problem that occurs when traditional economists seek to assess the value of space to the global
economy is that they look at dollar throughput (which is a mere $300 billion per year) rather than
understanding the strategic importance of space to human survival. My higher level message about the
economic importance of space is contained in the following four points.
Basic Messages about Space and its Strategic and Economic Importance.
Here are a few basic messages that need to be understood before going into specifics.




Humans travel through space at 66,000 miles per hour (or about 125,000 kilometers/hour) on a
modest space ship—at least when reckoned in cosmic terms. This spaceship has an external
biosphere that is protected by a thin breathable atmosphere--equivalent in size to the rind of an
apple. It is time we recognize that humans and all of our increasingly complex machinery are
very vulnerable to cosmic threats. Space programs to create a planetary defense are not a frill but
something that are needed to protect human civilization and our high tech modern infrastructure
that is also prone to cosmic hazards. Billions could die and economic loss could be in the
quadrillions of dollars (U.S.) if hit by an asteroid as large as 1 kilometer in size
Space technology is now essential to coping with climate change, problems such as the Ozone
Hole and other atmospheric and stratospheric issues. Again the economic impact and risk levels
are outside the scope of easy imagination—far greater than the damage of weapons of mass
destruction.
Space technology can and in fact does leverage our global service economy in a wide range of
ways. The Internet, global banking and insurance services, airlines and transportation systems,
weather alerts, educational and health care systems, to name a few, are dependent on space
systems to achieve global coverage and connectivity. A day without space would cripple
connectivity to the Internet for about 100 countries, cancel millions of banking transactions, and
shut down thousands of airline flights and put thousands more in peril. The direct economic cost
to the space industry if it were out of business for a single might be calculated in the millions of
dollars, but the indirect secondary impacts might run into many billions.
Space technology is today vital to national defense networks for communications, surveillance,
and much, much more. One might calculate that space related industry contribute only about
$300 billions of dollars (U.S.) a year to a total global world product of nearly $80 trillion (U.S.)
and consider that this industry is of limited economic importance. But then if one considers the
scores of ways that space industry supports global commerce and defense systems, it becomes
increasingly clear that perhaps half of the world’s economic activity now has direct and indirect
ties and at least partial dependence on navigation satellites, meteorological satellites,
environmental monitoring and remote sensing satellites, communications and broadcasting
satellites, and defense and disaster-relief satellites. The level of dependence is increasing
exponentially. Imagining a world without space is today is very much like imagining a world
without computers—and remember a single catastrophic space event could do exactly that. A
Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) equivalent to the Carrington Event of 1859 could quite possibly
wipe out virtually all of the world’s computers including the microprocessors that are essential to
all of our cars, trucks, aircraft, elevators, washing machines, and even our “smart toilets”.viii
Distilling the Meaning of Space in Methods Other than Direct Economic Numbers
Economic researchers have tried to identify and measure the portion of economic growth attributable to
space activity for some time. The global economic footprint of the space industry, including both public
and private sectors, is in the range of about $300 billion (U.S). Although this sounds like an impressive
number, this figure is small compared to the other major segments of the world’s total economic activity.
The Gross World Product (GWP), or the total gross national product of all the countries in the world
based on purchasing power parity, will be about around $80 trillion (U.S.) for 2013.ix Thus, the entire
space economy does not even represent 1% of the global economic activity. But, the impact of space on
the global economy in terms of its multiplier effect and its stimulus to economic growth is much larger
than shown by its direct contribution to the Gross World Product (GWP).x
At the beginning of the Space Age, with all sights firmly set on prestigious space accomplishments such
as being the first on orbit and then first on the Moon, the economic rationale of space investments was not
a priority since it was strategic objectives that led the way. However, as these milestones were reached
over time, the political momentum started to fade. The cost of the Apollo program was the primary reason
for its cancellation in 1972. Following the lunar landings in1969 and the early 1970s, the Nixon
administration was faced with the difficult problem: how to "get NASA's budget under control" while still
maintaining the lead of the U.S. in the space race. Sending more US astronauts to the Moon would not
have brought more prestige and without an economic reason for sustained flights to the Moon, there was
very little reason to keep the Apollo program runningxi.
Once the excitement of the 1960s subsided, measuring the economic benefits of space programs became
more and more important. In the absence of a strong political mandate, the economic rationale started to
shape major investment decisions. The initial attempts to quantify the economic impacts mostly centered
on the macroeconomic picture and by using various econometric models. One of the most cited studies
was performed by the Midwest Research Institute (MRI). The MRI study was contracted by NASA and
looked into the relationship between NASA R&D expenditures and technology-induced increases in the
US Gross National Product (GNP). This study concluded that each dollar spent by NASA on R&D during
the twenty-year period associated with the Apollo Program returned an average of slightly over seven
dollars in GNP through 1987xii.
Since this study, the 1 to 7 ratio of R&D investments to economic returns has been widely used as a way
to justify investing in space. Although the early days of the Space Age generated a very significant
economic return, there are some inherent dangers in blindly using this ratio today:



The ratio is an average figure. Some R&D investments such as in telecommunications and
navigation satellites had generated many times their original public investment while some other
investments had negligible returns. Thus, without looking into the specific benefits expected from
a space investment, there is no guarantee that the returns will be in a similar range.
The marginal returns of space investments have decreased over time as many technical challenges
were surmounted by other types of innovative products and services. This is not to say that space
investments in the future will not generate significant returns, but it is only natural that the initial
investments unlocked more value than subsequent ones.
Some of the accrued benefits are societal in nature (such as gaining a better understanding about
climate change or space systems to mitigate global warming, or a heightened sense of planetary
protection as we learn more about the past of Mars and Venus or detect potentially hazardous
asteroids.). Such gains may not have a direct economic benefit (at least in the short term), but
they have contributed greatly to our collective knowledge of nature and might forestall economic
losses that might be reckoned in the quadrillion of dollars. We have no very good economic
metric for assessing the value of a substantial level of risk reduction or prevention of
financial catastrophe. This might be one of the biggest short comings in modern economics.
The lack of pricing systems to put a penalty value on environmental destruction or over
population might be the second biggest failing of modern market economics. We value
economic growth. We don’t value survival and the sustainability of human civilization.
What we do know is that space activities have created significant economic value for the whole economy
through the creation of new products and services, transfer of new technologies and many positive
externalities, such as social and environmental consciousness. Space-based tele-education and tele-health
is especially critical in developing economies and may play a key role in human survival.
A Critical Look at Space Related Economic Spin-offs
European Space Agency's Business Incubation Centres among others have served to provide very
interesting information regarding a wide-range of space technologies which were successfully applied to
terrestrial domains. Their analysis performed in 2011 clearly helps to demonstrate the depth and breadth
of the dissemination of space technologiesxiii. Lifestyle, software solutions, educational applications,
environment and health are some of the main sectors which have benefitted from space technologies. The
reach of space technologies extends to many other sectors as well, including energy, textile, automotive
and life sciences and perhaps especially tele-health and tele-education.
It is also interesting to track the origin of ESA's spin-off technologies, spanning the period of 1990 to
2006. During this period, space science and launchers were the two leading domains of space technology
accounting for about 20% of the spin-offs, each. Human spaceflight, microgravity research,
telecommunications and earth observation contributed to around 10% of the spin-offs, each.
Adapting space technologies to meet different needs on Earth can unlock tremendous value. The table
below shows just a few of the thousands of links between space technologies and applications in
medicine, manufacturing, entertainment and many other sectors.
From space to Earth: spin-off examplesxiv
Space Program Technology and Commercial “Spin-offs”
Product
Space Origin
Tumor tomography
NASA scanner for testing
Battery powered surgical instruments
Apollo Moon program
Non-reflective coating on personal computer
Gemini spacecraft window coating
screens
Emergency blankets (survival/anti-shock)
Satellite thermal insulation
Mammogram screening, plant photon-counting
Space telescope instruments
technology
Skin cancer detection
ROSAT X-ray detection
Dental orthodontic spring
Space shape memory alloys
Early detection of cancerous cells
Microwave spectroscopy
Carbon composite car brakes
Solid rocket engine nozzles
Car assembly robots
Space robotics
Flameproof textiles, railway scheduling, fuel tank
Various Ariane components, including software
insulation
Lightweight car frames, computer game controllers, Various Space Shuttle components
fuel cell vehicles, coatings for clearer plastics, heart
assist pump, non-skid road paint
Fresh water systems
Corrosion free coating for statues
Flexible ski boots, light allergy protection,
firefighter suits, golf shoes with inner liner
Healthy snacks
ISS technology
Launch pad protective coating
Various space suit designs
Space food
Lessons Learned from Space-Based Tele-Education and Tele-Health Around the World
There have been a wide range of space-based tele-education and tele-health based programs around the
world for over forty decades. Well over 100 countries participated in Intelsat’s Project SHARE (Satellites
for Health and Rural Education) that took place in the 1980s. It was from this program that the world’s
largest satellite based tele-education program i.e. the Chinese satellite-based distribution program was
born. The Indian EduSat tele-education program was born from the SITE experiments on the ATS-6
Satellite that took place in the 1970s. Today satellite and Internet-based tele-education and tele-health
programs span the world and all the world’s continents with over 100 million students and non-traditional
students participating. The attached Chart indicates just some of the programs now available. There are
many satellites that provide coverage to around the world or on a regional basis and a significant new
entry will be the O3b network that is being deployed in the third quarter of 2013. This network is geared
to the world’s equatorial region and optimized for wireless internet-based services.
Satellite Based University Programs Around the Worldxv
Examples of Various Types of International and Regional Satellite Educational Programs
Name
Hub
& Network
Concept
Course Offerings
Jones
International
University
Denver,
Co.
Initially
provided
satellite-based
courses but are
now largely online
Hub based in
Russia
and
serves over 800
towns via VSat terminals
Operates in 44 countries
Degrees in MA & PhD in Education and
Masters in Business
Operates
in
Russia,
Armenia,
Belarus,
Kazakhastan, Kyrgyzstan,
Modova,
Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan,
Ukraine,
Georgia, Vietnam, Israel
and China
Operates throughout the
Caribbean
Multiple degree in higher education, bachelors
and Masters degrees, including economics,
computer engineering, law, political science,
management,
linguistics,
psychology,
philosophy, and educational instruction.
Modern
University of
the
Humanites
of EurAsia
University of Hubs at each
major campus
the
Caribbean
Each country specializes in a few disciplines
and shares faculty and course curricula
throughout the Caribbean via satellite
courseware. Also provide health services.
Provides higher education courses but supports
other forms of education and training and
health care
University of Major Hub at Operates throughout the
South Pacific
the
South Suva, Fiji
Pacific
throughout Although this provides commercial radio
Worldspace Utilizes Afrisat Operates
satellite
Africa.
broadcasts, this satellite also provides health
and education services.
Examples of Various Types of National Satellite-Based Educational and Health Services
Algeria
Hub-City
Location
Algers
Australia
Sydney
Brazil
Brazilia, Rio
de Janeiro,
and
Sao
Paolo
Knowledge Network
Vancouver
Country
Canada 1
Educational Network
Types of Offerings
Provides satellite services
to regional centers in the
Saharan desert area
Optus
provides
an
extensive
network
of
remote educational and
health services to the
Outback
Brazilsat and Telebras
support educational and
health services.
Education from primary through college level
courses as well as health services.
Provides extension courses across the country
of Australia as well as emergency health and
nutritional services.
There are a number of networks, but one of the
most extensive and vital is a satellite network to
support the Amazonia region.
Wide range of programming available via Bell
Satellite Television and Shaw Satellite
Television.
ASN also devoted a significant amount of its
daytime schedule to educational programming.
The
Distance University Education via
Television (DUET) service is offered by ASN
in partnership with participating universities in
Atlantic Canada. Some of the university
programs offered through DUET include full
degrees
75 majors in 9 disciplines and 24 specialties
including science, engineering, agricultural
science, medicine, literature, law, economics,
management, and education
Canada 2
Toronto and CTV Two Atlantic
Montreal
China
Combines satellite network
Beijing,
and Internet. Currently
Open
nearly 3 million students.
University of OUC Partners with 21
China
conventional universities
(OUC)xvi
Provides educational and Provides particularly vital services to the
Bogotá
Colombia
Egyptxvii
Cairo
Nilesat
Ethiopian
Satellite
Education
Program
Addis Abba
Indiaxviii
Edusat,
operated by
ISRO,
Bangalore,
India
and
New Delhi,
via
health services
7
dedicated
satellite
channels for education.
Services some 9500 school
locations in remote areas..
Provides service to 450
schools via 8000 HDTV
plasma screens. Known as
Woredas
Operates in about 8
languages and covers all of
India. About 1 million
students but only 5% (i.e.
about 50k) are enrolled in
higher education.
Andean region.
Began in 1998. Serves primary education,
technical education, secondary education. One
channel is for instruction of teachers. Another
is used for literacy training.
Kagiso
Educational
TV
and
Sasani
Instructional
TV
produced
educational
programming for Grades 9 to 12 under a World
Bank loan. Transmits 70 half hour educational
programs a week. Implemented by Hughes
Network Systems and other suppliers.
Primary emphasis is primary and secondary
education and vocational schools. Partnership
with a number of universities include the
National Open School.
Indonesia
University
Grants
Consortium
Djakarta
Japan
Tokyo
Kenya
Afristar
provides DBS
radio service to
all of Africa
Korea, Rep. Seoul
of
Indosat
provides
educational and health care
to the major inhabited
islands of Indonesia
JCSat
and
Broadcast
Satellite System (B-Sat) of
Japan
One
broadcast
radio
channel devoted to provide
coverage in Kenya
Koreasat satellites provide
coverage to South Korea
and the region
Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur
Over 20 remote sites
Mexico
Mexico City
Nigeria
Lagos
Russia
Moscow
South Africa
Praetoria Hub
Thailandxix
Bangkok
Over 100 sites all over
Mexico
designed
and
implemented with Via Sat
Corporation
NigComSat 1R provides
coverage of all of Nigeria
and
all
of
Africa.
(Replaced
failed
NigComSat 1)
A number of domestic
satellite networks provide
educational
program
distribution over Russia
and especially remote areas
Mind Set Learn & Teach
and Mind Set Health
provide
educational
materials
via
Intelsat
satellite resources to both
teachers and students.
IPSTar or Thaisat 4
Turkey
Ankara
United States
Systems
A Great Variety
of Locations for
Scores
of
national,
regional
and
State-based
Systems
The
Turksat
system
provides
higher
educational courses across
the nation
There are a large number
of U.S. Systems that
distribute educational and
health programming for the
US mainland, Alaska,
Hawaii
and
US
protectorates
This supports public schools and colleges and
universities but also supports remote oil and
mining centers with educational services as
well.
Both these satellite systems provide a range of
educational broadcast courses to all of the
Japanese islands.
WorldSpace has dedicated one channel on its
AfriStar satellite to broadcast education to 11
million children in Kenya's 18,617 primary and
3,245 secondary schools
KT Corporation operates these satellites in
cooperation with the Korea’s Agency for
Defense Development. These satellites provide
university courses and also training for defense
forces.
One of the most sophisticated satellite-based
programs of higher education.
One of the most extensive educational systems
that covers from primary through university
level courses.
Allows the distribution of educational and
health programming to Nigeria and Africa.
Service just began in March 2012 and network
still being developed.
Allows universities to share programming
across Russia, Siberia and members of the
Russian Federation.
This was set up in 2002 with a 8 way
partnership that included Intelsat, Telkom
Foundation, Sentech, the Sunday Times, the
Nelson Mandela Foundation and others. It
provides student courses, instructional advice to
teachers and health education.
Courses on Schoolnet are for primary,
secondary and vocational schools and do not
currently include higher education
Network provides higher educational courses in
a wide range of subjects. Some programming is
supported by the Turkish Air Force.
The programs are diverse and cover from
primary through university level courses. Some
are State level satellite educational programs
for rural areas where essential college prep.
Courses could not otherwise be available. Some
are hybrid of Internet-Satellite networks
United
Kingdom
London
&
Milton-Keynes
Open University
This is a combination of terrestrial Internet and
satellite (B-Sky-B, Eutelsat, etc.) educational
distribution.
It is not really productive to seek to cover each and every educational network that uses satellite,
wireless Internet or fiber technology around the world since there may well be over 1000 such
networks now in operation and the number of such networks are increasing exponentially.
Just one example of what is possible is provided by the case of Ethiopia that is indicative of the
types of systems that have been or are being implemented. Just over a decade ago, the Ethiopian
Ministry of Education started major new initiative to seek to convert the country from being
essentially a rural and an agricultural society to a much more educated and more informationbased economy. The Ethiopian government developed a system of educational and information
networks to connect schools, government offices, and other agencies together. This project
became known as Woredas. On the basis of the Woredas program the Ethiopia
Telecommunications Corporation (ETC) is providing connectivity to 454 senior secondary
schools, 36 agricultural colleges, and 620 Woredas sites across their rapidly evolving national
network. ETC has implemented a broadband satellite network to deliver a range of services that
includes voice, Internet and intranet connectivity, video networking to schools, tele-education
sites as well as governmental agencies.
The World Bank (IBRD) has teamed with the Ethiopian Government to implement this network,
The project includes broadband access via a VSAT network, end-user devices, studios, screens,
and educational content. There is a new master control satellite earth station and new fiber to
connect government ministries and studios. This was initially deployed in 2004 and upgraded
further in 2006.xx On-going training and support to keep this largely satellite based network
operating. But this is but one example of a large and growing number.
Rather than detailing every system, it is probably more important to discuss what important
lessons have been learned about such networks and what can be done to maximize the
performance, cost effectiveness and economic impact of such networks going forward. The
following key lessons learned with regard to space-based tele-education and tele-health based
networks are as follows:
1. Plan Ahead for the Next Key Step Forward. One of the first programs in satellitebased tele-education took place in El Salvador under funding from the U.S. Agency for
International Development (AID). At first it seemed like a great program. Students from
rural areas were educated and developed a broad range of new skills. There were, in fact,
no jobs for these new graduates and the economic turmoil that came from newly educated
students with no job opportunities was a revolution. Education must be seen as part of a
process and people with new skills sets must be offered job opportunities and the chance
to use their education productively.
2. Use a Coherent Systems Approach. The Arthur C. Clarke Foundation through their
Millennium Project and others have develop programs for rural development that include
tele-health and tele-education combined with solar energy, disaster warning, job training
and rural tele-services job training. Piece-meal programs that only address one aspect of
intellectual or economic development rather than seek integrated and synoptic advances
will often fail. Space based tele-education and tele-health should not be expected to
operate in a vacuum. Integrated programs with a systems approach is needed.
Independent assessments to perfect this integrated approach and use space-based teleservices to ever improved results is also essential.
3. Local Programming is Key. The use of tele-education and tele-health services that are
imported from overseas—often with problems of language and cultural differences—
often tend to fail. Instructional programs need to reflect national and local culture to be
effective over the longer terms. During Intelsat’s Project Share, it was noted that only
local educational and cultural program were able to be of on-going and longer term value.
4. Tele-education and Tele-Health is a Supplement, Not a Replacement. Remotely
distributed educational and health information can help insure that the latest information
is available, top expertise is made available, and also help to make many programs cost
efficient. There still must be local personnel to relate to students and patients. Arthur C.
Clarke was once asked if he was advocating tele-education as a means to replace local
teachers and he said “No of course not. But perhaps those teachers that could be easily be
replaced by a machine, might be the first ones to go.”
5. There is only One Good, Knowledge and One Evil, Ignorance. These were the words
of wisdom voiced by Socrates nearly 2500 years ago. Education is the key to world
advancement, technological breakthrough, and perhaps the major stimulus to global
economic development. Satellites and networking are key to global education as well as
telehealth in the 21st century. Today nearly 24% of the U.S. economy relates to education,
training and medical/health services and networked services are perhaps the most
important tool to trim these costs while improving services. Education and knowledgebased human advancement may be the only ultimately effective means to cope with
climate change, global warming, and other threats to human survival such as over
population. One cannot consider the value of satellite-based tele-services without
recognizing its essential role in unlocking a better world future.
6. Hybrid Systems Make the Most Sense in Complex World. Clearly satellite-based teleservices and space-based research systems are only some of the tools available to modern
society. Internet based networks, fiber optic links, and terrestrial wide-band wireless
systems must be integrated with space-systems to accomplish future educational, health
and other societal goals. Satellites are best for rural and remote, island-based
connectivity, multi-casting and broadcasting services. Clearly they need to be effectively
merged with other networking technologies to achieve overall goals. Countries that have
large deserts, intense rain forests, major mountain ranges, and/or extremely large areas
with remote populations need to continue to look to satellite networks. In order to
accomplish research and global monitoring functions related to the atmosphere, the
oceans, the arctic regions and more, space-based systems are our most vital tool.
7. Educational and Health-Based Systems Have Different Requirements. Satellite teleservices can be used to accomplish a wide range of functions more rapidly, more
accurately and at lower cost. Nevertheless each application can have its own unique
technical requirement. Some instruction can be accomplished well via radio. Some
medical diagnostic services require high resolution, true color images to not mistake one
symptom for another. Clearly space-based services are not a panacea and each
application can dictate services at different data rates, true color, better resolution, and
specific and unique needs. In short one size does not fit all.
8. Distribute Expertise. Institutions such as the University of South Pacific, the University
of West Indies and other distributed educational institutions have been using distributed
satellite networks for decades to good advantage. They have found that by distributing
expertise to specific locations they can create teams of expertise at various sites that then
can be effectively shared throughout a region. This gives more “bang for the buck” and
allows limited resources to go further. Thus one island campus can be the center for
forestry, another for fishing, and yet another for ocean flora and fauna. These centers can
then be networked together to share these resources widely throughout a region.
9. Placing Economic Value on Space Based Systems Remains Difficult. The use of
space-based technology can be widely shared in education, health care and other teleservices within a country, a region, the entire world, or even astronauts in space. It is a
mistake to consider the value of space-based activities in terms of money spent or
industrial turn-over of revenues. Space-base tele-services can be a dollar or valuemultiplier. Space based-research and applications can perhaps save humanity from mass
extinction, remove lethal heat from the Earth’s surface, restore the Ozone Hole in the
upper stratosphere, or avert an asteroid from annihilating life on our planet.
Limits to Satellite System and Service Development—Effective Frequency Management
and Interference Reduction
Currently satellite services of all types—commercial satellite services, defense and governmental
vital services, scientific research and development and related commercial spin-offs are growing
as documented by economic information presented earlier. There are serious concerns as to the
sustained future growth of these systems due to at least three potential powerful brakes. One
concern is that of orbital debris that if not controlled and debris eventually reduced this could
threaten all forms of satellite activities, including that of national defense. Guidelines adopted by
the IADC and the UN COPUOS are a good start much more must be done. Secondly space
weather and future powerful solar eruptions could threaten our trillion dollar space infrastructure.
This could become a much more serious problem if changes to the Earth’s magnetosphere that
seem to be occur reduce our protective shield as represented by the Van Allen belts. Also there
are concerns about potentially hazardous asteroids and near earth objects that could also result in
“show stopping” catastrophes with economically disastrous effects reckoned in the quadrillions
of dollars. These issues are discussed in greater detail elsewhere under so-called “Black Swan”
events.
Three is another problem that is much less catastrophic but could still be a major economic
brake. Currently the demand to support broadband wireless services has been projected to
grow—at least in some countries—as much as 40% per annum. There is not sufficient spectrum
currently available using conventional technology to support such growth. More efficient
technologies and the development of higher radio frequencies in the millimeter waves will likely
need to be developed to support this growth for satellites, terrestrial broadband wireless and new
requirements related to drones, UAVs and High Altitude Platform Systems (HAPS). This
shortage of frequencies for both terrestrial wireless and satellite broadband services must be
recognized as potential brake on global economic activity of importance. But beyond the
shortage of spectrum to meet new commercial and consumer demand, the issue of frequency
management and regulation—including that of frequency interference and jamming must also be
taken quite seriously. Currently the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has limited
tools to deal with such issues. Greater regulatory and enforcement powers, the posting of
“guaranteed performance” bonds, the ability to invoke fines against willful interference, and
other such steps may be needed. There could be an expanded role for insurance companies or
risk management companies to assist with frequency interference issues. Here the concerns
include broadband communications satellites, navigation satellites, and even geospatial and other
types of satellites. An examination of how the World Trade Organization deals with unfair
competition and consideration of how its powers might be addressed to these matters might well
be a key step forward with the ITU and WTO working in consort. The most critical path in terms
of economic impact is the protection of satellite navigation systems that play a now critical role
with regard to aircraft takeoff and landing and other key services.
Space and Its Economic Importance
Space systems today permeate our global economy. Navigation satellites dominate aircraft take
offs and landings, routing of ships, trucks, and buses, map making and a host of strategic and
military operators. Telecommunications and broadcast satellites play dominant role in global
television distribution of news, sports and entertainment, strategic communications, satellite telehealth and tele-education is now key in scores of counties. Broadband satellite communication
systems now play a key role in providing global Internet interconnectivity, worldwide banking,
insurance, and trade-related links. In short satellites provide vital roles in global business
connections to many nations—and especially in developing countries where much of global
economic growth is occuring.
One cannot easily overestimate the importance of space-based systems for education, health and
medical services, weather and disaster-relief services, search and rescue, and many other
enterprises from fishing to agriculture, from insurance to global manufacturing. An exercise
known as a “day without satellites” has demonstrated that much of the world’s economy and
defense capabilities would go down without the functioning of the many hundreds of satellites
that now ring the globe. Only if we truly were to experience a day without space with all of our
weather, remote sensing, navigation, communications and broadcasting satellites for both our
civilian and military services would we actually begin to comprehend what role space systems
plays in contemporary society. The lost to the industry for one day would be millions, but for the
world economy the lost would be staggering—not only in terms of money lost, but lives lost as
well.
What economists generally do not fully comprehend is that is just today’s reality and an event
that involved a temporary loss of space system capabilities. Current and future space systems
may be the only technology that stands between us and a devastating solar event (i.e. a coronal
mass ejection similar to the so-called Carrington Event) or a massive asteroid strike. Space
technology is quite literally essential to the survival of human and modern infrastructure. There
is no economic formula that could effectively place a valuation on planetary defenss against
climate change, against massive solar flares, against coronal mass ejections that come at a time
of weakened levels of the geomagnetosphere, against potentially hazardous asteroids or comets,
Only through space activities can we learn about other risks such as the Ozone hole, current
changes to the protective shield of the Van Allen Belts and an altered Earth’s magnetic field.
Fortunately the likelihood of such events are low, but they are indeed finite and real. The
potentially losses from such event might not only be in the quadrillions of dollars, but the
consequences would in truth be even more severe. In urban areas the losses might involve
billions of lives lost and the survivors of a category 9 or 10 asteroid strike (on the Torino Scale)
would find that human society had suddenly returned to Stone Age conditions if we survive at
all. .
i
Elliot Pulham, Director, The Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Colorado, US
http://www.spacefoundation.org/media/space-watch/doing-hard-things
ii
“India Expands its Banking and ATM Sysem, HNS, Channels Newsletter, Summer 2013
iii
“Managed Network Service for the African Development Bank”, HNS, April 2, 2013
iv
Indu B. Singh and Joseph N. Pelton, The Safe City: Living Free in a Dangerous World, (2013) The Emerald
Planet, Washington, D.C.
v
Pedro Ortiz, “How to Respond to Uncontrolled Metropolitan International Growth” International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), November 2011.
vi
Home Minister, The Hon. Sushilkumar Shinde, Letter to Indu Singh, Jan. 2013.
vii
Indu B. Singh and Joseph N. Pelton, The Safe City: Living Free in a Dangerous World (2013) The Emerald
Planet, Washington, D. C. pp. 57-58.
viii
Joseph N. Pelton, Orbital Debris and Other Hazards from Outer Space, (2012) Springer Press, New York.
ix
The World Factbook, World Economy, available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/xx.html
x
Ozgur Gurtuna, Fundamentals of Space Business and Economics, (2013) Springer, New York.
Joseph N. Pelton “Lessons in Space Safety: The Shuttle Decision in the Nixon White House” Space
Safety Magazine, Summer 2013 In fact, a loss of life during an Apollo mission (after the first Moon
landing) might have tarnished the reputation of US as a technological powerhouse.
xii
The MRI study estimated NASA’s R&D spending during the 1959-69 period at US$25 billion (in 1958
dollars). The corresponding return on this investment was estimated at US$181 billion between 1959 and
1987.
xiii
Szalai, B., "A Quantification of Benefits Generated by ESA Spin-offs", International Space University
Working Paper, 2011.
xiv
The following sources were used to compile the table: Peeters, W., "Space Economics And
Geopolitics", ISU Executive Space MBA lecture notes, 2001; ESA, "Down to Earth: How Space
Technology Improves Our Lives", 2009 available at
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/multimedia/publications/BR-280/pageflip.html and NASA Spinoff website
available at http://spinoff.nasa.gov/
xi
xv
Note: These various Internet and satellite distribution educational networks are constantly being updated and reconfigured. For the latest information go to the website for these various networks. Also note that this list is only
indicative of the wide range of satellite systems that exist. The largest systems (i.e. those of China and India) have
millions of students) while those in the South Pacific may only have hundreds of students. Thus the scope, cost and
operation of these networks vary hugely in their structure and course content.
xvi
Open University of China, http://en.crtvu.edu.cn/about/general-information
xvii
David Leichner, “Satellite Networks for Education, Gilat SkyEdge, Satellite Communications Magazine, October
2012.
xviii
Edusat program provided by INSAT 3B satellite, http://www.cec-ugc.org/
xix
School net services in Thailand http://www.school.net.th/
xx
“Ethiopia Leaps Forward with Broadband Satellite” Channels Newsletter, Winter 2006,