Weather Folklore
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Humans have always attempted to predict the weather. In 650 BC, people living in Babylonia, an ancient state in the southern part of Mesopotamia (modern day Iraq), predicted the weather from cloud patterns. The ancient Chinese predicted the weather by observing patterns of events. If the sunset was unusually red, it was often an indication of good weather for the following day. Although these ancient methods of weather forecasting were used for centuries, they were not always reliable. Another limitation was that information about the current state of the weather could not be communicated to places far away. So, if a community of Babylonians were experiencing a terrible storm, they had no way to warn their neighbors downwind that trouble was coming!
The most basic weather forecasting is still based on the observation of weather patterns, which over the years has led to folklore about the weather. You are probably familiar with
Groundhog Day, celebrated on February 2 nd in the US. This folklore originated from ancient Celtic people who believed that if winter’s midpoint was sunny and clear, a long cold winter would follow. Today, people celebrate this day with a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil, who resides in Philadelphia. The tradition is that every year, on the morning of February 2 nd ,
Punxsutawney Phil leaves his home under the ground. If it is sunny and clear enough for little Punxsutawney Phil to “see his shadow”, a long winter is predicted. Unfortunately, this weather folklore is only accurate about half the time!
Read the attached list of weather folklore with your group. How many do you think you can figure out? Have you heard of any of them? Have you found any of the statements to be true in your own experience with the weather?
If crows fly low, winds going to blow; If crows fly high, winds going to die.
not!
Whether it’s cold or whether it’s hot; We shall have weather, whether or
No weather is ill, if the wind is still.
A sunshiny shower won’t last half an hour.
Rain, rain go away; come back another day.
Clear moon, frost soon.
The moon and the weather may change together, but change of the moon does not change the weather.
From twelve ‘til two tells what the day will do.
When sea birds fly to land there truly is a storm at hand.
The sharper the blast, the sooner it’s past.
Year of snow, fruit will grow.
The chill is on, near and far, in all the months that have an ‘R’.
Rainbow at noon, more rain soon.
The south wind brings wet weather...the north wind, wet and cold together; the west wind always brings us rain…the east wind blows it back again.
When a cow tries to scratch her ear it means a shower is very near.
Onionskin is very thin, mild winter is coming in. Onionskin is thick and tough winter will be cold and rough. distress.
Rainbow in the east, sailors at peace.
Rainbow in the west, sailors in
Rainbow in the morning, shepherds take warning; rainbow at night, shepherds’ delight.
Weather Balloon Uses
In 1785, French balloonist Jean-Pierre Blanchard lifted off from
Paris on a record-breaking journey across the English Channel.
Tagging along for the ride was John Jeffries, an American physician known for dabbling in weather observation. In the skies above Northern Europe, Jeffries hoped to record some of the first-ever measurements of the upper atmosphere. When the balloon came dangerously close to crashing into the English
Channel, however, Jeffries was forced to toss his equipment overboard to lighten the load.
Today, weather balloons do most of the work for us, letting the experts stay safely on the ground. In the United States alone, weather balloons are launched twice a day from 92 weather stations. This works out to a total of 67,160 balloons per year!
Worldwide, more than 900 weather stations rely on daily weather balloon launches.
It's nearly impossible to predict the weather without knowing the conditions of the upper atmosphere. It may be sunny and quiet at sea level, but at 18,000 feet (5,486 meters), a weak storm system could soon turn into something more dangerous. This information doesn't just keep joggers out of the rain -- it saves lives. High-altitude weather data is critical for predicting oncoming natural disasters like tornadoes, thunderstorms or flash floods. Thanks to weather balloons, officials can scramble supplies and emergency personnel to an affected area hours before a weather disaster strikes.
Components of a Weather Balloon
Occasionally, an American homeowner wakes up to find a spent weather balloon in his or her backyard. It's a strange sight: tattered strips of neoprene, tangled cords, a crumpled parachute and a small cardboard box. It's no surprise that weather balloons are often mistaken for extra-terrestrial spacecraft .
The core component of the whole assembly is the radiosonde , a shoebox-sized cardboard box packed with three basic atmospheric instruments:
Thermistor . A ceramic-covered metal rod that acts as a
thermometer.
Hygristor . A small slide that acts as a humidity sensor.
Aneroid barometer . A small metal canister filled with air that measures air pressure.
The radiosonde also has a low-powered radio transmitter to relay data from all three instruments back to receivers on the ground.
A small battery provides power to the radiosonde. The advantage of a radiosonde is that scientists don't need to retrieve the device to obtain weather data. Holding the whole assembly aloft is a large balloon made of neoprene , a synthetic rubber. The balloons are filled either with helium or hydrogen. Hydrogen is cheaper, has better lifting capacity, and can be easily extracted from water. However, hydrogen is also very flammable.
Weather Balloon Launches
In an isolated field in the middle of Australia, NASA officials slowly inflated a massive helium balloon that would carry a $2 million gamma ray telescope into the upper atmosphere. The location was perfect for a balloon launch: flat, dry and clear.
Before the balloon was fully inflated, however, a sudden gust of wind caught the balloon and sent it hurtling across the countryside. Crew members ran for their lives as the telescope smashed into a nearby SUV and ripped through a fence before crumpling into a heap more than 492 feet (150 meters) away.
Of the many things that can go wrong during a balloon launch, leaving a trail of destruction is obviously one of the worst.
Most weather balloons, on the other hand, are launched without a hitch. In the United States, weather stations will typically have an onsite shed built especially for the purpose of balloon inflation. To prepare a balloon for launch, a technician will first secure the balloon to a nozzle and begin filling it with helium or hydrogen. As it fills, he tests the radiosonde's battery, tunes the radio equipment and attaches the whole assembly together with a length of nylon cord.
Once the balloon has inflated to about the size of a yoga ball, the technician ties it off and ushers it outside. Walking the balloon a short distance clear of trees, power lines and other obstacles, he'll simply give it a gentle push upward. As soon as the balloon begins to float, the radiosonde gets to work, beaming data to weather computers on the ground. In real time,
these computers plot the data into three-dimensional weather models and send them to weather stations across the country.
Ground technicians, meanwhile, track the rising balloon with radar equipment. By noting the sideways movement of the ascending balloon, they can calculate wind speed and direction at different altitudes.
If the radiosonde was simply allowed to plummet to earth, it could wreak deadly havoc on human settlements below. That's why each weather balloon has a small parachute connected to the cord joining the radiosonde to the balloon.
Much of the time, weather balloons simply become litter after a trip into near-space. If balloons catch a particularly strong gust of wind, they can travel several hundred miles -- touching down anywhere from a marshy bog to the snowy peaks of the Rocky
Mountains. Sending helicopters to pick up almost 200 weather balloons launched in the United States each day simply isn't in the budget. However, inside each radiosonde is a large postagepaid envelope. If you ever come across an old weather balloon, simply place it inside the envelope and pop it into a mailbox, and days later it'll be returned to the National Weather Service to fly again.
Instruments can only measure the current weather conditions. Most people want to know what the weather will be like in the future.
Forecasters can make some predictions from their own observations. If they see cirrus clouds above and high stratus clouds to the west, they might infer that a warm front is approaching. They would predict weather typical for a warm front – more clouds, then rain, and eventually warmer weather. If they also have information from other places, the forecasters might be able to tell where the warm front is already and how fast it is moving. They might be able to predict how soon it will arrive and even how warm the weather will be after the front passes.
Computers have become an important tool for forecasting weather. When weather stations send in data, computers can create maps right away. Computer models combine many types of data to forecast what might happen next. Different computer models give different types of forecasts. Scientists study the computer forecasts, then apply their knowledge and experience to make weather predictions.
When computers of reasonable size began to appear in the 1950s, meteorologists were some of the first users to simulate the weather on computers. The idea was to use the laws of physics to calculate the weather of the future. At first it was pure research. The people running the simulations could change the energy or water vapor concentration by millions of joules by typing a few numbers on a computer card. The scientists could make two runs, one with and one without the change, in a matter of minutes or hours.
After a decade of improvements in both computers and the simulations, the forecasters wanted to see the results each day. Today, the results of these models are an integral part of the weather forecasting process.
Computer Simulations Reveal Exotic Weather on Distant Worlds
It's weather we wouldn't like – supersonic winds and temperatures hot enough to melt lead and rocks.
This artist's concept shows a cloudy, Jupiter-like planet that orbits very close to its fiery star. Spitzer Space Telescope observations for at least one such planet, called HD
189733b, showed the nightside temperatures are 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than they would be on a wind-free planet.
Computer simulations of the atmospheric circulation on Jupiter-like planets around other stars can explain temperature observations of these planets and shed light on the exotic weather experienced by these far-away worlds.
Approximately 300 planets have been discovered around other stars, and for most of those planets, scientists know little more than the mass and orbital properties of the planet. However, for a handful of the brightest planets, temperatures have been inferred from observations carried out with spacebased platforms such as NASA's
Spitzer Space Telescope. Those observations and the computer simulations used to explain them, hint at weather patterns truly alien to our Earth-based experience.
Adam Showman of The University of Arizona led a study explaining how a global atmospheric circulation driven by the dayside heating and nightside cooling can drive weather on the so-called "hot Jupiters" – Jupiter-like gaseous giant planets that orbit extremely close to their stars.
"These planets are 20 times closer to their star than Earth is to the Sun, and so they are truly blasted by starlight," Showman said. Their dayside temperatures reach 2,000 or even 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit, much hotter than any planet in the Solar System.
"Because these planets are so close to their stars, we think they're tidally locked, with one side permanently in starlight and the other side permanently in darkness,"
Showman said. "So, if there were no winds, the dayside would be extremely hot and the nightside would be extremely cold."
Observations conducted last year with the Spitzer Space Telescope showed, however, that for at least one such planet, called HD 189733b, the nightside temperature exceeds
1,300 degrees Fahrenheit – much warmer than expected for a wind-free planet. This shows that winds carry heat from the dayside to the nightside, keeping the nightside warm. Until now, however, no computer models had successfully explained this process in detail.
Showman and colleagues performed state-of-the-art 3D computer simulations that, for the first time, coupled the weather motions to a realistic representation for how starlight is absorbed and how heat is lost to space. The models explain the observed day-night temperature patterns and suggest that, to carry the heat, the planet must have jet streams with speeds reaching a hefty 2 miles per second or 7,000 miles per hour.
"You're talking about winds fast enough to carry you in a hot air balloon from San
Francisco to New York in 25 minutes," Showman said. The winds predicted by the computer simulations move predominantly from west to east, which pushes the hottest regions away from the region that receives the most starlight.
"According to the observations, the hottest region on the planet is not 'high noon' but eastward of that by maybe 30 degrees of longitude," Showman explained. "Our simulations are the first to explain why that phenomenon occurs."
The planet, HD 189733b, is 63 light years from Earth and is in the constellation of
Vulpecula, or the Fox. The star around which the planet orbits, HD 189733, is visible with binoculars from here on the ground, but the planet is much too dim to be detected except with the most powerful space-based telescopes.
Also involved in the study are Jonathan Fortney of U.C. Santa Cruz, Yuan Lian of the
UA, Mark Marley and Richard Freedman of NASA Ames Research Center in
Mountain View, California, and Heather Knutson and David Charbonneau of Harvard
University.
So what's the weather forecast for these planets? "Hot Jupiters are pretty crazy places," said Showman. "Expect supersonic winds and dayside temperatures hot enough to melt lead and rocks. Only problem is, if you tried to visit, you'd be fried to a crisp before you could enjoy the view."
Contacts
Adam Showman
520-621-4021 showman@lpl.arizona.edu
What about the big picture? Weather satellites are another engineering marvel that enables us to see what the Earth and clouds look like from space and give us a more comprehensive view of Earth’s interrelated systems and climate. Weather satellites are very important for meteorologists. These satellites transmit data and images from outer space to help scientists see how cloud systems, ocean currents and storms are moving.
The weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth. Satellites can be polar orbiting, covering the entire Earth asynchronously, or geostationary, hovering over the same spot on the equator.
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Meteorological satellites see more than clouds and cloud systems. City lights, fires, effects of pollution, auroras, sand and dust storms, snow cover, ice mapping, boundaries of ocean currents, energy flows, etc., and other types of environmental information are collected using weather satellites. Weather satellite images helped in monitoring the volcanic ash cloud from Mount St. Helens and activity from other volcanoes such as Mount Etna.
[2] Smoke from fires in the western United States such as
Colorado and Utah have also been monitored.
Other environmental satellites can detect changes in the Earth's vegetation, sea state, ocean color, and ice fields. For example, the 2002 Prestige oil spill off the northwest coast of Spain was watched carefully by the European ENVISAT, which, though not a weather satellite, flies an instrument (ASAR) which can see changes in the sea surface.
El Niño and its effects on weather are monitored daily from satellite images. The
Antarctic ozone hole is mapped from weather satellite data. Collectively, weather satellites flown by the U.S., Europe, India, China, Russia, and Japan provide nearly continuous observations for a global weather watch.
Satellites provide data from space to monitor the Earth to analyze the coastal waters, relay life-saving emergency beacons, and track tropical storms and hurricanes. The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates two types of satellite systems for the United States - geostationary satellites and polar-orbiting satellites. Geostationary satellites constantly monitor the Western Hemisphere from around 22,240 miles above the Earth, and polar-orbiting satellites circle the Earth and provide global information from 540 miles above the Earth.
Satellites enable us to provide consistent, long-term observations, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. They track fast breaking storms across "Tornado Alley" as well as tropical storms in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. In addition to weather, data from satellites are used to measure the temperature of the ocean, which is a key indicator of climate change. Satellite information is also used to monitor coral reefs, harmful algal blooms, fires, and volcanic ash.
Infrared (IR) Satellite Imagery
"Infrared" satellite imagery, sometimes referred to as "IR" or "IR4", allows you to see cloud cover whether it is day or night. Infrared satellite instruments measure the temperature of cloud tops, which we can translate into cloud cover. Since air temperature generally decreases with increasing altitude, cooler clouds are located higher in the atmosphere. In the image above, yellows, oranges, reds, and pinks correspond to high clouds, while blues and greys correspond to low clouds.
Geostationary Satellites (GOES)
GOES satellites provide continuous monitoring of weather patterns. They circle the
Earth continuously over one spot on the Earth's surface. The geosynchronous plane is about 35,800 km (22,300 miles) above the Earth, high enough to allow the satellites a full-disc view of the Earth. Because they stay above a fixed spot on the surface, they provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms, and hurricanes. When these conditions develop, the GOES satellites are able to monitor storm development and track their movements.
GOES satellite imagery is also used to estimate rainfall during the thunderstorms and hurricanes for flash flood warnings, as well as estimates snowfall accumulations and overall extent of snow cover. Such data help meteorologists issue winter storm warnings and spring snow melt advisories. Satellite sensors also detect ice fields and map the movements of sea and lake ice.
Polar-Orbiting Satellites (POES)
Polar-orbiting satellites offer the advantage of daily global coverage. These satellites are able to collect global data on a daily basis for a variety of land, ocean, and atmospheric applications. Data from polar-orbiting satellites aids in weather analysis and forecasting, climate research and prediction, global sea surface temperature measurements, ocean dynamics research, volcanic eruption monitoring, forest fire detection, and many other applications.
What if we wanted to see inside a large cloud or storm to analyze its structure and gauge its potential to cause severe weather? Is this possible? Military radar operators asked this same question during World War 2 when they noticed noise in returned radar echoes due to weather elements such as rain, snow and sleet. When the war was over, many of these military radar operators became engineers to develop a use for the noisy echoes. Now, we have weather radar, a special type of radar that uses radio waves to “see” how precipitation is behaving in a cloud and how it might change.
RADAR stands for radio detection and ranging. Basically, a radar is an electronic instrument used to determine the direction and distance of objects that reflect radio energy back to the radar site. Weather radars use radio waves to locate precipitation and determine its type (rain, snow, sleet or hail). They also calculate the motion of precipitation and forecast its future position and intensity.
All weather radars work by the process of scattering, in which radiation energy is reflected by small particles. So, when weather radar sends a radar beam out into space, the precipitation particles in the atmosphere cause the radiation energy to scatter. The motion and behavior of the scattered radiation is read by the radar site and translated into important weather information.
Doppler Radar
Most weather radars are Doppler radars, which can also detect the motion of rain droplets. A Doppler radar measures the changes in the frequency of the signal it receives to detect the intensity of precipitation, estimate wind direction and speed, and predict hail size and rainfall amounts. Doppler radar gives forecasters the capability of providing early detection of severe thunderstorms that may bring strong damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and possibly tornadoes. On May 8, 2003, Doppler radar showed the very early signs of a tornado forming in Oklahoma City. Because of this early detection, 1200 people were able to evacuate to shelters before the tornado hit.
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Weather radar is used to measure and calculate precipitation . This type of radar is used all over the world in order to detect incoming weather. Modern weather radar is
now quite advanced, though it wasn't always so precise. Thanks to a simple observation that occurred during World War II, weather can now be observed accurately.
World War II radar operators noticed that radar signals made a different sound when the weather was about to change. If rain, snow, sleet, or other precipitation occurred, returned radar noise was altered according to the type of precipitation that was in the air. Taking these weather observations with them after the war, former military radar operators began to experiment with various types of weather radar.
From 1950 to 1980, reflectivity radars were widely used amongst meteorologists. These radars were able to measure the positioning and strength of incoming precipitation, but they could not measure the velocity of air particles. Velocity was soon added to weather radar equipment when the Doppler radar system was invented.
Today, most meteorologists use Doppler radar to detect precipitation, though this for of radar is constantly being updated. Meteorologists can now differentiate between two types of precipitation that is seemingly similar. Thus, today's weather forecasts can accurately predict either rain or snow, though earlier radar systems could not separate the two forms of precipitation.
Weather radar systems have proved to be extremely useful when it comes to thunderstorm tracking. Modern technology allows meteorologists to track the intensity and severity of an incoming thunderstorm. This has allowed for large populations to move out of the way of a particularly treacherous storm.
Aside from tracking weather on the ground, commercial airlines also use weather radar to assist pilots with aircraft maneuvering. Since airplanes move in all directions, it helps pilots to know when and where weather is occurring. These radar detectors are attached to the nose of an airplane, and they help pilots keep an airplane headed in the right direction no matter what the present weather may be.
Most countries presently have national radar centers that detect the weather in and around a certain territory. Covering such a large expanse of land is somewhat difficult, though contemporary radar advancements make such a task possible. By combining information taken from numerous radars, national weather centers are able to determine weather that may affect various parts of a country, or the country as a whole.
Scientists are able to print maps such as these due to Doppler radar. It allows us to know the intensity and type of precipitation falling.
Scientists are able to print maps such as these due to Doppler radar. It allows us to know the intensity and type of precipitation falling.