Centre for Mathematical Biology Annual Report, July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2011 I. Overview During 2010-2011, the Centre was home to 2 high school students, 6 undergraduates and 21 graduate students, 4 Postdoctoral Fellows/Research Associates, 5 core faculty members and many affiliated faculty. Again, constructive collaborations flourished with federal and provincial governments, Mathematics in Information Technology and Complex Systems (MITACS), NSERC networks, NGOs, industry, academic researchers within campus, and academic researchers worldwide. The Centre was active in hosting 26 seminar speakers, 6 short-term visitors and 4 long-term visitors. II. Scientific Activities & Infrastructure There were 5 core investigators for the Centre, (Lewis, de Vries, Hillen, Wang and Dawes). (Also see Appendix A). Scientific activities at the Centre are defined as the activities of these core investigators. (a) Current Major Multidisciplinary Research Collaborations Ongoing and new collaborative major multidisciplinary projects are listed. Animal Movement Modelling (AMM): This work models animal movement, using mechanistically detailed processes describing how animals respond to environmental, resource and conspecific cues. There are a variety of sub-projects, ranging from state space models for wolf movement in the Alberta foothills to tracking polar bear movement over ice sheets, to more abstract models for swarming and group formation. Centre faculty includes Hillen, Lewis and de Vries; trainees include MSc student Rita Wong and PhD Candidates, Marie Auger-Methe and Ulrike Schlaegel. Other participants include Eveyln Merrill and Andrew Derocher (both with Biological Sciences). The research is funded by NSERC and PIMS. Five articles were published during this year, two in Arctic, and the others in Marine Mammal Science, Ecology and Animal Behaviour. Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN): This Canada-wide network of researchers study spread and control of aquatic invaders. It involves interactions between academics and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans and is funded by an NSERC Network grant. This network finished in February 2011. A new network, CAISN II, has been funded by NSERC and partners at an amount of $6,560,000 for the period of April 2011 to March 2016. Lewis and Hugh MacIsaac are co-PIs on this grant and grad student, Harshana Rajakaruna, research associate, Alex Potapov and postdoc, Jim Muirhead are collaborating on this project. Two articles have been published in Diversity and Distributions and one in Ecological Modelling during this year. Cell Movement (CM): The mathematical modelling of cell movement on petri dishes and in tissues is a major focus of Hillen’s research. Qualitative properties of chemotaxis models have been analysed through international collaborations with Kevin Painter, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh. This research is supported through Hillen’s NSERC grant. An article has been published this year in Physica D-Nonlinear Phenomena. Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Contractile Forces Mediated by the Non-muscle Myosin Family of Proteins (CFMP): Many cells require members of the non-muscle myosin (NMY) family to mediate contractile activity involved in activities such as cell migration and membrane closure. Led by Dawes, this project studies membrane closure in the germline cells of the nematode worm, C. elegans, using theoretical and experimental techniques. The antagonistic forces exerted by different NMY proteins are essential for proper cell maturation. We have extended this work to look at NMY function in other cell types. The project is joint with Prof. David Pilgrim (Biological Sciences) and Torah Kachur (Grant MacEwan University). This project is funded by NSERC Discovery grants to Dawes and Pilgrim. Coral Reef Preservation and Restoration (CRPR): This work involves investigatory preservation and restoration of natural coral reefs using a group of newly developed refuge-dependant models. This work involves Wang, Abhinav Singh (UK), Wendy Morrison and Howie Weiss (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia). Development of Instructional Modules in Mathematical Biology (IMMB); This project fits under the auspices of the CRYSTAL-Alberta program and involves de Vries, a multidisciplinary team of researchers from the Faculty of Science, Steve Norris (Education), mathematics teacher John McNab (Jasper Place High School), a scientific writer Marjorie Wonham (a faculty member at Quest). We are developing a collection of interactive web-based instructional models in the area of mathematical biology, with the goal of conveying how mathematical techniques and mathematical thinking contribute to contemporary scientific research in the biological and life sciences. Our audience is primarily senior high school students and beginning undergraduate students. Three articles were published this year in the following journals; Annual Society for Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, Research in Science Education and Alberta Science Education Journal. Dynamics of Insect Populations (DIP): Mathematical modelling to investigate dynamics of insect populations includes modelling dynamics of forest caterpillars and analysis of two-cycle dynamics in the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly under climate change. Researchers include former grad student, Jeanette Wheeler (now a PhD student at MIT), former postdocs Caroline Bampfylde (now a research scientist with Alberta Environment) and Christina Cobbold (now a faculty member at the University of Glasgow), Jens Roland (Biological Sciences) and Mark Lewis. This work was continued in an international working group funded at the US National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBios). This research is supported through AIF and NSERC. An article was published in Insect Science this year. Evolution of Cell Size and Body Size (ECB): This work, led by Wang, has two subprojects: evolution of cell sizes of phytoplankton and zooplankton with random or growth-dependent mutations and evolution of body size phenotypes of lemmings. Graduate student, Silogini Thanarajah, is researching this project. The project is funded by NSERC. Ecological Stoichiometry (ES): Ecological stoichiometry is the study of the balance of energy and nutrient elements in ecological systems. Stoichiometry theory provides an important lens to understand and model ecological interactions with successful applications in plant-herbivore interactions and competition for multiple nutrients. There are a variety of subprojects, ranging 2 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 from mechanistically modelling limiting factors – light and phosphorus – in algae-daphnia microcosm experiments, and stoichiometric control of invasive daphnia species in aquatic ecosystems, to modelling nutrient limitations on lemming population cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Stoichiometric modelling is a major focus of Wang’s research. Subprojects are in progress through international collaborations, including Yang Kuang and James Elser (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), Irakli Loladze (Isreal), Xiong Li (Beijing, China), Charles Price (University of Western Austrailia, Perth, Australia), and graduate student Silogini Thanarajah. The research is funded by NSERC. Three articles were published this year. The first is in the International Journal of Numerical Analysis and Modeling Series B, the second, in the Journal of Mathematical Biology and the third, in Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. Forest Fire Modelling (FFM): As a result of a PIMS Industrial Problem Solving Workshop in 2006, collaboration between the Centre for Mathematical Biology (Hillen) and the Alberta Government (Cordy Tymstra, Alberta Branch of Sustainable Resources and Development) has developed to study models for the prediction of forest fire growth. Additional researchers include; Rob Bryce (Programmer), Chris Bose (University of Victoria), John Braun (University of Western Ontario, London Ontario), Dave Martell (University of Toronto), and Anne Bourlioux (University of Montreal) This research is supported by MITACS. F1000: Includes reviews for Faculty 1000 on new research papers. Faculty 1000 is a small group of invited scientists that review and recommend research papers internationally. Three reviews were completed during this year. Habitat Destruction (HD): Wang collaborates with Fangliang He (Renewable Resources) and graduate student Xihui (Eric) Lin, to study the number and the rank of species extinction after habitat destruction. This project is funded by NSERC. Infectious Disease Modelling (IDM): Modelling infectious disease transmission, led by Wang, includes three subprojects: modelling indirectly transmitted infectious diseases such as cholera, in collaboration with Richard Joh, Joshua Weitz and Howie Weiss (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), and graduate student William Davis, devising a new algorithm to recover the time-dependent transmission rate from epidemiological data via an inverse method, in collaboration with Howie Weiss (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), and Mark Pollicott (University of Warwick, Coventry, UK), abstract modelling of infectious disease transmission with waning immunity, in collaboration with graduate student Nicholas Piazza. This work is funded by NSERC. This year, an article was published in the American Journal of Veterinary Research. Instream Flow Needs: A Mechanistic Model-based Approach (IFN): This project focuses on impacts of changing water flow on the biological interactions in Alberta Rivers. It is a collaborative venture involving researchers at the Centre: Lewis, graduate student Hannah McKenzie, postdoc Yu Jin, and Frank Hilker (now a faculty member at the University of Bath), and faculty members Ed McCauley (U California, Santa Barbara), Frithijof Lutscher (University of Ottawa) and Peter Steffler (Engineering), with funding from AIF Fellowships. Funding from an Alberta Sustainable Resource Development grant, involves additional researchers at Alberta Fish and Wildlife. In addition, we receive major funding from the Alberta Ingenuity Water Centre 3 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 as part of a large inter-university collaborative group (Ed McCauley PI).This year, a paper was published in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics. Maintenance of Par Protein Domains in Early Embryos of the Nematode Worm C. Elegans (PPD): Par proteins establish distinct domains in C. elegans embryos shortly after fertilization, although the mechanism, by which they establish and maintain those domains, is currently unknown. By developing a mathematical model of Par protein dynamics in conjunction with experimental work on C. elegans, a model was proposed and tested to better understand the underlying polarization mechanism. Dawes continues to work on extensions of this model, investigating mechanisms for symmetry breaking, in collaboration with Prof. Martin Srayko (Biological Sciences). This project is funded by NIH and NIGMS (US) and an NSERC Discovery Grant. Mathematical Models for Industrial-scale Composting (MMIC): Led by de Vries, this work is in collaboration with Daryl McCartney (Civil & Environmental Engineering) and graduate student Anastasia Lukyanova and investigates mathematical models for industrial-scale composting processes. The research is exploring opportunities to validate the models with researchers at the Edmonton Waste Management Centre of Excellence. Mathematical Models of Radiotherapy in Cancer Research (RCR): Hillen leads this study of optimization of radiation treatment of cancer. Collaboration includes de Vries, Matthew Parliament (Cross Cancer Institute), PhD candidate Jiafen Gong and undergraduate Chris Finlay. The research is supported individually through NSERC projects. A paper has been published this year, in Mathematical Medicine and Biology. Microbiology (MB): Modelling bacterial population dynamics, behaviours and functioning is a major focus of Wang’s research. Subprojects include; bacterial colony and community formation, bacterial competition and coexistence, bacteria-driven organic matter decomposition and nutrient regeneration. These subprojects are part of international collaborations that include Hal Smith, Yang Kuang and James Elser (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), Lin Jiang and Joshua Weitz and Howie Weiss (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Mark Pollicott (University of Warwick, Coventry, UK) and graduate students Silogini Thanarajah and William Davis. The research is funded by NSERC. Modelling of Cell Morphology (MCM): This project, led by Dawes, with graduate student Alison Muscat, is investigating the use of simulation techniques to model cell shape changes. The research is particularly interested in the use of level set methods to track the boundary of a moving cell and is currently attempting to use the method to study cell blebbing, where cells extend small rounded protrusions prior to division, and to better understand how these protrusions are formed and regulated. Once the technique is established for blebbing cells, the investigation will extend to study many other cell types that take on a variety of shapes in response to environmental cues. Modelling Primary Succession on Mount St. Helens (MSH): Since the eruption of Mount St Helens in May 1980, researchers have been monitoring the progression of primary succession on its slopes. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain how primary succession unfolds, 4 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 though few have been explored in mechanistic models. Working with former MSc student, Justin Marleau, (now a PhD student at McGill), John Bishop (Washington State University), and Bill Fagan (University of Maryland), models have been developed to test the importance of these mechanisms on Mount St Helens. Insights gleaned from these models could, one day, be applied to restore ecosystems damaged by mining and natural disasters. One article has been published in American Naturalist. Mountain Pine Beetle Modelling (MPB): This is a collaboration between Lewis and Canadian Forest Service scientist, Barry Cooke and research associate, Mario Pineda-Krch, as part of the Alberta MPB Genomics TRIA Project. Other UA faculty involved in the project include; Subhash Lele (Math & Stat Sci), David Coltman, Janice Cooke and Felix Sperling (Biological Sciences) Myosin Regulation and Oocyte Cellularization in the Gonad of the Nematode Worm C.elegans (MRO): During oocyte development, a ring channel is held open, allowing free movement of components the oocytes will require to support early development after fertilization. Dawes, in collaboration with David Pilgrim (University of Alberta) and former graduate student Torah Kachur (now faculty at Grant MacEwan University), has used experimental and theoretical approaches to suggest that two different myosins (nmy-1 and nmy-2) act antagonistically, to modulate the opening of the ring channel. This project is funded by an NSERC Discovery Grant to A. Dawes and a CIHR Operating Grant to D. Pilgrim. Other (OTH): One article on fitting parameters of stochastic birth-death models to metapopulation data was published in Theoretical Population Biology this year. Polar Bear Reproductive Dynamics Under Sex-selective Harvest and Climate Change (PBR): This collaborative research involves scientist Andrew Derocher, (Biological Sciences), former postdoc Peter Molnar (now a postdoc at Princeton), Lewis and graduate student Marie AugerMethe. There are three projects: mathematical models to predict the effects of a sex-selective harvest on polar bear population dynamics, mathematical models to predict the effects of climate warming on the reproduction and body condition of polar bears, and impact of ice movement on polar bear foraging and fitness. An article has been published in Nature Communications this year. Population Cycles (PC): This project focuses on impacts of physiological or behavioral parameters and environmental factors on small mammal population fluctuations. This collaborative research involves Wang, Olivier Gilg (Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), and John Nagy (Scottsdale, Arizona). The research is funded by NSERC. Risk Assessment of Oil Sands Related Contaminants to Aquatic Biodiversity (RAOSC): The main goal of this project is to assess the effects environmental contaminants have on the aquatic ecosystems and what risks are posed to individuals and populations of a variety of species within the oil sands area of northeast Alberta. This collaborative research involves graduate student Nicholas Piazza, Caroline Bampfylde (Alberta Environment) Wang, and Lewis. This project is funded by Alberta Environment (Government of Alberta), and MITACS. 5 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Sea Lice in Salmon (SLS): This work involves researchers from Alberta, Victoria, Salmon Coast Research Station, University of Washington, Dalhousie University and Simon Fraser University. Researchers from Alberta include, Lewis and Subhash Lele (Math & Stat Sciences), as well as former graduate student Marty Krkosek (now a faculty member at Otago, NZ). Here, the ability to analyze the system using mathematical and statistical models has been key in the ability to understand complex dynamics. A project, involving graduate student, Jaime Ashander (now a PhD student at Davis) investigated the evolutionary dynamics of sea lice under pesticide control. Graduate student, Stephanie Peacock, is undertaking several projects assessing impact of sea lice on conservation of wild salmon. Funding for the study comes from the International Graduate Training Centre (IGTC) and MITACS. Two articles were published this year, one in Theoretical Ecology and the other in Ecological Monographs. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Cellular Proteins (DCP): This project aims to provide theoretical support for the quantitative interpretation of data obtained from experiments that are designed to probe the spatio-temporal dynamics of biomolecules such as proteins in living cells. The team working on this project is multidisciplinary and consists of de Vries, Chris Cairo (Chemistry), Gustavo Carrero (Athabasca), MSc students Vishaal Rajani (now a PhD student in Physiology) and Harun Kalayci and William Davis. This group has collaborative connections to the research group led by Dan Coombs (UBC). Funding comes from an NSERC USRA (Rajani), NSERC Discovery grants (Cairo, de Vries), and Athabasca University (Carrero). One article was published this year in Biophysical Journal. Structure and Organization of Polarized Epithelial Cells (SPE): Most multicellular organisms are constructed with polarized epithelial cell sheets. The individual cells in the sheet display unusual structures composed of polymerized actin and tubulin filaments which are mutually regulated by adhesion complexes. Dawes, de Vries and graduate student, Diana White, aim to use systems of differential equations to better understand the origins and dynamics of these structures and, ultimately, how they interact with each other to maintain polarization and proper functioning of the epithelial cell sheet. The project is funded by an NSERC Discovery grant. Theory of Delay Differential Equations (TDDE): This work focuses on developing new mathematical theorems for delay differential equations with applications in biological models. This is joint research with Wang, Edoardo Beretta (Istituto di Biomatematica Università di Urbino, Urbino, Italy), Michael Li (Math), Yang Kuang (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), and graduate student Xihui (Eric) Lin. The work is funded by U of Alberta Startup Funds and NSERC. 6 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 The following table summarizes the projects, researchers, trainees, publications and funding agencies. Projects with no Centre publications are typically in their first few years, with papers currently in the submission/review stage. Many of the projects involve additional trainees not at the Centre. For simplicity of presentation, only the Centre trainees are shown. Project Senior Researchers Dept AMM 3 CAISN Campus 3 Centre Trainees Centre Publications Funding Agencies OffCampus 7 3 2, 3, 4, 12, 13 NSERC & PIMS 3 2 5 9, 17, 18, 24, 27 NSERC & partners CM 1 1 CFMP 1 CRPR 1 DCP 1 1 3 DIP 1 1 6 ECB 1 ES 1 5 FFM 1 6 F1000 2 1 20 1 NSERC NSERC Discovery 3 3 25 NSERC USRA & NSERC Discovery 15 NSERC & AIF 1 1 NSERC 10, 11, 28 NSERC PIMSMITACS Industrial 1 22, 23, 29 7 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) Project July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Senior Researchers Centre Trainees Centre Publications Dept Campus HD 1 1 IDM 1 IFN 1 IMMB 1 MB 1 MCM 1 MMIC 1 1 MPB 2 3 MRO 1 2 MSH 1 3 1 14 1 1 30 2 1 16 Funding Agencies OffCampus 1 NSERC 7 3 21 NSERC & UA Startup 1 3 2 6 AIF Fellowship 3 12 7 8, 19, 26 2 NSERC 1 OTH 1 1 1 1 NSERC NSERC Discovery & CIHR PBR 1 PC 1 PPD 1 RAOSC 2 1 1 RCR 2 2 2 2 NSERC NSERC & UA Startup 1 NIH, NIGMS (US), NSERC AB Environment & MITACS 5 NSERC 8 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) Project July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Senior Researchers Dept Campus Centre Trainees Centre Publications 2 1, 7 Funding Agencies OffCampus SLS 2 9 SPE 2 1 NSERC Discovery TDDE 2 1 NSERC & UA Startup Totals¹ 40 17 86 NSERC, IGTC & MITACS Discovery 35 ¹The units here are person times projects. In other words, individuals participating in more than one project are counted for each project they participate in. (b) Educational Projects and Initiatives PIMS International Graduate Training Centre (IGTC): This program continued to flourish under the auspices of the Pacific Institute for Math Sciences. Lewis is the Program Director of the IGTC. Details of the program can be found at http://www.pims.math.ca/scientific/graduate-training-igtc Mathematical Biology Journal Club: Hillen, Dawes and de Vries hosted a weekly seminar meeting at the Centre, to discuss CMB student’s work in progress, to meet with visitors and to read pertinent journal papers. Wang Research Group: Wang Research Group consists of 6 graduate students and 2 postdoctoral fellows. Besides weekly individual meetings, they hold regular group meetings to discuss several areas of mathematical biology as diverse as modeling stoichiometry-based ecological interactions, microbiology, infectious diseases, habitat destruction and biodiversity, risk assessment of oil sands pollution. Mathematical models include ODE, DDE, PDE, SDE, IDE. Dr. Wang, his students and postdocs also had joint activities with other groups in the Centre. Lewis Research Group: The Lewis Research Group consists of 8 graduate students, 1 visiting summer student, 1 postdoctoral fellow and 2 research associates. Dr. Lewis and his lab members held weekly lab meetings to discuss their research and to touch base on Centre activities. Visitors to the Centre were invited to participate in lab meetings held during the time of their visit. 9 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 (c) Research Resources In 2010-2011, $1271.64 was spent on toner and photoconductors for the Lexmark C534dn colour printer in the Centre. As well, $63.00 was paid to AICT for maintenance on the same printer. (d) Personnel Faculty: There are five core faculty members (Adrianna Dawes, Gerda de Vries, Thomas Hillen, Mark Lewis and Hao Wang). This year, Dr. Lewis received the CRM-Fields-PIMS Prize for exceptional research in mathematics. He was also inducted as a Fields Institute Fellow on June 27, 2011. This lifetime appointment is granted to certain individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the Fields Institute, its programs, and to the Canadian mathematical community. Support Staff: Cecilia Hutchinson continued as the Research and Administrative Coordinator of the Centre until March 2011 and Mark Duller remains the Centre’s part-time Computer Analyst. Graduate Students, Funding and Awards: Jaime Ashander: MSc – graduated Evolution and ecology of sea lice and salmon (PIMS IGTC Fellowship in Math Biology) Jane Cooper: MSc – continuing The existence of cancer stem cells and their significance for tumor growth William Davis: MSc – continuing Indirectly transmitted infectious diseases (Nitrogen cycle modeling in aquatic environments) (NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship) Harun Kalayci: MSc – continuing Mathematical analysis of Single-Particle Tracking (SPT) data Maryam Khajen Alijani: MSc – continuing Stochasticity in modelling biological systems Xihui (Eric) Lin: MSc – continuing Multiple attracting limit cycles in delay differential equations Anastasia Lukyanova: MSc – continuing Mathematical modelling of industrial composting process 10 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 (PIMS IGTC Fellowship in Math Biology, Josephine M. Mitchell Graduate Scholarship, Student Oral Presentation Prize (UofA)) Hannah MacKenzie: MSc – graduated Instream flow needs and river dynamics (Alberta Ingenuity) Nicholas Piazza: MSc – continuing Infectious disease modelling with seasonal incidence, vaccination and multi-cell spatial spread Vishaal Rajani: MSc – graduated Mathematical methods to analyze data from single-particle tracking (SPT) experiments (NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship) Jeanette Wheeler: MSc – graduated Temperature-dependent population dynamics of Parnassium smintheus in Rocky Mountain alpine meadows (NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship, Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Scholarship) Rita Wong: MSc – graduated Individual-based models for animal aggregation (NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship) Marie Auger-Methe: PhD – continuing State –space models and the analysis movement by Arctic mammals (Alberta Ingenuity, NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship, President’s Doctoral Prize of Distinction (UofA), Science Graduate Scholarship-UA Faculty of Science) Andria Dawson: PhD – continuing Models for mixed wood forests (Queen Elizabeth II Graduate Scholarship, MITACS/NSERC Industrial) Jiafen Gong: PhD – continuing Optimization of radiation treatment (Josephine M. Mitchell Graduate Prize) Jonathan Martin: PhD – continuing Forest fire research (PIMS ITGC Fellowship in Math Biology) 11 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Stephanie Peacock: PhD – continuing Modelling disease transmission from aquacult to wild salmon (Alberta Ingenuity, NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship, Walter Johns, UA MSc Scholarship, PIMS IGTC Fellowship in Math Biology) Harshana Rajankaruna: PhD – continuing Population viability models for invasive aquatic species Ulrike Schlaegel: PhD – continuing Modelling wolf movement and researching state-side models (iCORE Graduate Recruitment Scholarship, PIMS IGTC Fellowship in Math Biology) Silogini Thanarajah: PhD – continuing Mathematical models for ecological dynamics (PIMS IGTC Fellowship in Math Biology) Diana White: PhD – continuing Mathematical modelling of microtubule dynamics in human columnar epithelial cells Postdoctoral Researchers, Funding and Awards: Petro Babak: PDF – graduated Forest fire Modelling (PIMS/MITACS Industrial Postdoctoral Fellow) Yu Jin: PDF – continuing Development of mechanistic, process-oriented models for stream hydrology and biological interactions. The goal is to understand Instream flow needs for healthy ecosystems. Research Associates/Assistants: Alex Potapov: Research Associate – continuing Integrated systems for invasive species Mario Pineda-Krch: Research Associate – continuing Collaborative research on genomics of the Mountain Pine Beetle, in cooperation with government and academic researchers (TRIA). Duties include modelling and model analysis using computational and other methods. Undergraduate Students: Aditya Jain: BSc - continuing (MITACS Globalink) Chris Finlay: BSc – graduated Cole Zmurchok: BSc – continuing 12 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Rochelle Nieuwenhuis: BSc – continuing (NSERC Undergraduate Student Research Award) Neil Borle: Bsc - continuing Jeff Zielinski: Honors Thesis – graduated High School Students: (e) Nadia Shardt: WISEST Summer Research Program Emma McDonald: WISEST Summer Research Program Visitor/Seminar Program The Centre held the PIMS Mathematical Biology Seminar Series each Monday of the Fall and Winter terms. Names of the speakers are listed below and include speakers from Alberta, across Canada, the US, Europe and the Middle East. Visiting Students: Laura Parshotham: MSc (York University) May – August, 2011 Effects of oil sand pollution on trout fish population dynamics Mairon dos Santos: PhD (University of Sao Paulo) – graduated (Emerging Leaders South America) Juan Carlos Chimal: PDF (National Polytechnic Institute, IPN) – graduated (Mexican Fellowship) Short-term Visitors: Sharon Bewick (Tennessee, USA) September 20-23, 2010 Sally Otto (British Columbia, Canada) September 27 & 28, 2010 Luigi Preziosi (Torino, Italy) October 1 - 3, 2010 Leonid Hanin (Idaho, USA) November 13 - 16, 2010 Stuart Hurlbert (California, USA) December 8, 2010 Josie Hughes (Ontario, Canada) January 31, - February 4, 2011 Long-term Visitors: Christina Surulescu (Stuttgart, Germany) August 25 - October 20, 2010 Mina Teicher (Bar-Ilan, Israel) September 28 – October 10, 2010 Kevin Painter (Edinburgh, UK) October 20 – November 9, 2010 Alan Hastings (California, USA) October 24 – November 1, 2010 13 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Visiting Speakers from Universities other than the University of Alberta: Sharon Bewick – University of Tennessee A Mechanistic Approach to Modelling Ant Communities Under Warming Regimes Sally Otto – University of British Columbia Inferring the Past for Traits That Alter Speciation and Extinction Rates Luigi Preziosi – Politecnico di Torino, Italy (Joint AMI/PIMS/Math Bio Seminar) Cell Adhesion and Reorganization in a Multiphase Model Describing Tumor and Tissue Growth Mina Teicher – Bar-Ilan University, Israel Synchronization in Neural Activity Christina Surulescu – University of Stuttgart, Germany Cell Dispersal Models: A Nonparametric Approach Alan Hastings – UC Davis University of California (U of A Distinguished Guest Speaker – Math Bio Seminar) Stochastic Population Dynamics: The Role of Different Kinds of Stochasticity in Time and Space Alan Hastings – UC Davis University of California (U of A Distinguished Guest Speaker – Renewable Resources Seminar) Bioeconomics and Optimal Control of Spread of Invasive Species Alan Hastings – UC Davis University of California (U of A Distinguished Guest Speaker – Biology 632 Seminar) Design of Marine Protected Area Kevin Painter – Herriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Integration of Theory and Experiment in Models for Embryonic Development Leonid Hanin – Idaho State University Distribution of the Number of Tumor Cells Surviving Fractionated Radiation Juan Carlos Chimal – National Politechnique Institute of Mexico Analysis and Simulation of Kinetic Models for Brain Tumor Growth Kerry Anderson – Natural Resources Canada (NRCan-RNCan) A Climatology Based Long-Range Fire Growth Model Stuart Hurlbert – San Diego State University The Logical Incoherence of Modern Statistical Practice Josie Hughes – University of Toronto Patterns and Processes in Outbreaking Forest Insect Population Dynamics 14 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Jeremy Fox – University of Calgary Evolutionary Effects of Competition Between Nutrient-Limited Consumers: On Balanced Diets and Diversification Seminar Speakers from the University of Alberta: Jeanette Wheeler Temperature Dependent Growth and Implications for Population Dynamics in an Alpine Butterfly Mark Lewis (A public lecture to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences) Plagued by Numbers: Mathematical Insights on Disease Dynamics and Biological Invasions Russell Greiner Introductions to Bayesian Belief Nets Yu Jin Spread and Persistence of Stream Species Alex Potapov Modelling of Chronic Wasting Disease in Deer Population Maryna Yaskina Applications of Fourier Analysis to Convex Geometry Mario Pineda-Krch Of Speciations and Extinctions – Evolutionary Diversification and Seasonally Varying Reproduction Hao Wang On the “Strict Homeostasis” Hypothesis Russell Greiner Towards Patient-Specific Treatment: Medical Applications of Machine Learning Mark Lewis Models and Data for Invasive Spread Across Lake Networks Thomas Hillen Cancer Stem Cells and the Tumor Growth Paradox 15 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) III. July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 Adriana Dawes Par Protein Positioning in the early C. Elegans embryo Mark Lewis (CRM, Fields, PIMS Prize Lecture) The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasion Processes Business Plan Implementation (a) Space The Centre occupies Central Academic Building (CAB) rooms 545A (visitor), 545B (director), 545C (research/admin coordinator), 545 (computing), 549 (library/meeting room) and 551 (postdoc/research associate/computer support personnel). Centre postdocs, students and visitors are also currently using CAB 501, although this is not strictly part of the Centre. Some of the Centre personnel are also in Lewis’ lab, Biological Sciences Building, B330 (b) Governance Director: Mark Lewis (Math/Stat Sciences and Biological Sciences) Advisory Board Members: Gerda deVries (Math/Stat Sciences) Russ Greiner (Computing Science), Hao Wang (Math/Stat Sciences), Subhash Lele (Math/Stat Sciences), Jack Tuszynski (Cross Cancer Institute) An Advisory Board Meeting was held November 17, 2010. (c) Financial Summary July 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011 INCOME Source Anticipated Revenue EXPENSES Total Revenue Math/Stat Sci $2,000 $2,000 Science Faculty $58,000 $58,000 VP Research $15,000 $15,000 TOTALS $75,000 Source Admin/Res Staff Computing Staff Supplies $75,000** TOTALS Opening balance as of July 1, 2010 was: $71,916.76 Closing Balance as of June 30, 2011 was: $10,468.69* 10-11 Operating Budget Total Actuals Variance $58,500 $53,421.65 $5,078.35 $11,500 $3,749.56 $7,750.44 $5,000 $4,276.86 $723.14 $61, 448.07 $13,551.93 $75,000 *closing balance = opening balance – total expenses **total revenue was actually received during the 2009/2010 reporting period (March, April & June 2011) 16 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 IV Evaluation of the CMB According to Established Metrics 1) Multidisciplinary Research Projects As indicated in the footnote on Page 4, the involvement in research is measured in person times projects. Number of multidisciplinary 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 researchers Involved in projects (in Dept., Campus, And Other) Faculty from Math & Stat Sciences, UA Faculty from other depts., UA Faculty from other institutions 18 22 30 39 40 10 41 13 81 12 78 16 63 17 86 Centre trainees (grad students, research associates & postdocs) Total #’s involved in multidisciplinary research 34 (20) 38 (19) 24¹ 37¹ 35¹ 103 154 144 155 178 23 23 7 34 41 7 39 46 3 24 27 0 30 30 $926,187 $821,718 $759,072 $678,123 $610,136 Number and quality of papers arising from projects These #’s include Centre trainees and core faculty Book Chapters Journal Articles Total # of publications Research funding arising from the projects² See also Formula for funding³ and PIMS IGTC Funding4 Notes: ¹2010-11, 2009-10 and 2008-09 numbers represent Centre trainees during 2008-09 and 2009-10 and 2010-11 only. Previous years include trainees who had previously completed their training at the Centre. Actual figures for 2006-07 and 2007-08 are now in brackets ( ). ²Yearly funding for the listed interdisciplinary research projects comes directly to the five core faculty based on FEC reporting. 17 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 ³Formula for funding: (i) use FEC reporting amounts, (ii) exclude double counting any grants (i.e. grants that are shared by two faculty); (iii) exclude any amounts that don’t come to the U of Alberta. 4 PIMS IGTC funding: funding from Pacific Instituite for Mathematical Sciences to support the International Graduate Training Centre (directed by Lewis and administered from the CMB) 2) Education Initiatives a) Number of undergrad, grad students (MSc & PhD) and postdocs trained High School Students Undergraduates Graduate Students Postdocs Research Associates Total students and postdocs b) 06-07 1 4 12 6 2 25 07-08 0 2 11 7 1 21 08-09 0 5 14 4 2 25 09-10 2 7 21 5 2 37 10-11 2 6 21 2 2 33 Quality of training, awards and recognition of students, placements of students and postdocs A major educational initiative is the International Graduate Training Centre (IGTC) in Mathematical Biology. This is allowing us to recruit and support more high quality students. c) Awards, Fellowships & Graduates Awards received by graduate students Number of graduating students 06-07 11 07-08 22 08-09 33 09-10 32 10-11 26 2 3 3 1 5 3) Visitor Program a) Number of visitors/seminar speakers PIMS MathBio Seminar Speakers Worldwide PIMS MathBio Seminar Speakers from the U of Alberta Long and Short Term Visitors Total Number of Visitors 06-07 16 7 07-08 18 7 08-09 15 12 09-10 13 13 10-11 14 12 1 24 1 26 13 40 14 40 10 36 Out of town visitors were scheduled to meet with students, postdocs and faculty to discuss mutual research topics. 18 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 4) Outreach On September 7, 2010, Dr. Wang gave a short talk, “My first year experience,” in the 2010 Science New Faculty Orientation. In May, 2011, he visited Beijing Normal University, to discuss possible collaborations with professors and graduate students in the Mathematics department. Dr. Wang was one of two organizers for the session, “Dynamical Systems,” in the CMS Summer Meeting at the University of Alberta in June. Dr. de Vries is very involved with the WISEST Summer Research Program. She served as Role Model in July, and a Panelist and Keynote Speaker in August She also assisted in the design and development of the Decima Robinson Support Cenre for Mathematical and Statistical Sciences. This initiative allows the department to better serve the needs of the undergraduate students. Dr. de Vries helped with consolidating the textbook and online homework systems for the engineering and non-engineering calculus streams by negotiating the terms of agreement with the publishing company on behalf of some 4000 students and instructors per year. 19 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 APPENDIX A Major Stakeholders and terms of reference Individual Researchers: 1) Core faculty during the 2010-11 period were; Adriana Dawes Gerda de Vries Thomas Hillen Mark Lewis Hao Wang Core faculty use the Centre, typically, on a daily basis and run Centre activities. They, their students and postdocs, define the Centre and its initiatives. They have access to Centre facilities including; computing resources, library, and office space for postdocs and visitors. 2) Associated faculty in mathematical biology in Mathematical & Statistical Sciences; Herb Freedman Subhash Lele Michael Li These faculty members use the Centre occasionally and typically interact with core faculty (above) on some of the Centre activities and research. Centre resources are available to the associated faculty on a request basis. 3) Associated faculty in mathematical biology across campus with some interactions at the Centre; Evelyn Merril, Biological Sciences Andrew Derocher, Biological Sciences Jens Roland, Biological Sciences David Coltman, Biological Sciences Janice Cooke, Biological Sciences Felix Sperling, Biological Sciences David Pilgrim, Biological Sciences Martin Srayko, Biological Sciences Chris Cairo, Chemistry Peter Steffler, Engineering Fangliang He, Renewable Resources This list is flexible and changes over time. Interactions with associate faculty range from collaboration in multidisciplinary research groups, to being regular participants in Centre activities. These faculty members do not typically have access to, or need for, Centre resources; however, they benefit through the scientific and collaborative interactions. 20 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 APPENDIX A (Continued) 4) Institutions which support the Centre through funding and administration: Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty of Science Mathematics of Information Technology and Complex Systems (MITACS) NCE Pacific Institute for Mathematical Sciences (PIMS) Vice President of Research Office Support from these institutions is vital for the success of the Centre. The Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, the Faculty of Science and the VP Research Office contribute the core funding of the Centre. Administration of the Centre falls within the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences and the Faculty of Science. PIMS and MITACS support Centre activities (such as the Undergraduate Summer Workshop, internships, etc.) The institutions benefit from the scientific and educational activities in the Centre. 5) Affiliated research groups who benefit from their association with the Centre: These include researchers/research groups, external to the University of Alberta, that are involved in the multidisciplinary research projects. Project AMM CAISIN CM CFMP CRPR IMMB DCP DIP ECB ES FFM HD IDM IFN Researchers/Research Group Marianne Marcoux (McGill University), Hal Whitehead (Dalhousie University), G. Larocque, Pierre. Dutilleul (McGill University), Murray.M. Humphries (McGill University), E. Chmelnitsky, S. Ferguson Hugh MacIsaac, C. Diabacco Kevin Painter, (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh) Torah Kachur, (Grant MacEwan University) Abhinav Singh, (UK), Wendy Morrison, (Georgia Tech, Atlanta Georgia), Howie Weiss (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia) John McNab (Jasper Place High School), D. Laurie, D. Vallee, B. Bahnmann, S. Yiu, P. Lu, N. Stelnicki, J. Braga, Marjorie Wonham, (Quest) Gustavo Carrero (Athabasca), Dan Coombs (UBC), David E. Golan (Harvard) Jeanette Wheeler, (MIT), Caroline Bampfylde, (Alberta Environment), Christina Cobbold, (University of Glasgow), Stephen F. Matter (University of Cincinnati), A. Doyle Yang Kuang (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), James Elser (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), Irakli Loladze (Isreal), Xiong Li, (Beijing, China), Charles Price, (University of Western Australia, Australia) Cordy Tymstra (Sustainable Resources and Development) Rob Bryce, Chris Bose (University of Victoria), John Braun (University of Western Ontario), Dave Martell (University of Toronto), Anne Bourlioux, (University of Montreal) Richard Joh (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Joshua Weitz (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Howie Weiss, (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Mark Pollicott (University of Warwick, UK) J. O`Brien, C. Thunes, T.E. Carpenter Frank Hilker (Bath), Ed McCauley (Santa Barbara, California), Frithijof Lutscher 21 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 (Ottawa) PPD MMIC RCR MB MCM MSH MPB MRO OTH PBR PC RAOSC SLS Matthew Parliament (Cross Cancer Institute) Mairon do Santos (University of Sao Paulo) Yang Kuang (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), James Elser (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona), Lin Jiang (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Joshua Weitz (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Howie Weiss, (Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Georgia), Mark Pollicott (University of Warwick, UK) Justin Marleau (McGill), John Bishop (Washington State), Bill Fagan (U of Maryland) Barry Cooke (Canadian Forest Services) Torah Kachur (Grant MacEwan) Heinrich zu Dohna Peter Molnar (Princeton), T. Klanjscek Olivier Gilg (Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), John Nagy (Scottsdale, Arizona) Caroline Bampfylde (Alberta Environment) Marty Krkosek (Otago, New Zealand), B.M. Connors (SFU), H. Ford (U Victoria), P. Mages, J.S. Ford (Dalhousie University), A. Morton (Salmon Coast Research Station), J.P. Volpe (U Victoria), R. Hilborn (U Washington), L.M. Dill (SFU) SPE TDDE 22 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 APPENDIX B Metrics for Evaluating the Centre for Mathematical Biology 1. Multidisciplinary Research Projects Number of multidisciplinary researchers involved in projects (in Dept., on Campus or Other) Number and quality of papers arising from projects Research funding arising from projects 2. Educational Initiatives Number of undergrads, grad students (MSc and PhD) and postdocs trained Quality of training, awards and recognition of students, placements of students and postdocs 3. Visitor Program Number of visitors/seminar speakers 4. Outreach Outreach is communication of Centre research and educational endeavours to individuals who do not typically participate in the same or similar activities. Groups of these individuals include, but are not restricted to; i. Media ii. School groups iii. The general public 23 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 APPENDIX C Centre Publications (trainees in bold) 1. Ashander, J. Krkosek, M., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Aquaculture-induced changed to dynamics of migratory hosts and specialist parasite: A case study of pink salmon and sea lice. Theoretical Ecology 5(2):231-252 2. Auger-Méthé, M., Marcoux, M., and Whitehead, H. (2010). Nicks and notches of the dorsal ridge: promising mark types for the photo-identification of narwhals. Marine Mammal Science 26: 663-678 3. Auger-Méthé, M., St. Clair, C.C., Lewis, M.A., Derocher, A.E. (2011) Sampling rate and misidentification of Lévy and non-Lévy movement paths: comment Ecology 92(8):1699-1701 4. Auger-Méthé, M., Marcoux, M., Whitehead, H.(2011). Computer-assisted photoidentification of narwhals. Arctic 64: 342-352 5. Gong, J., dos Santos, M.M., Finlay, C., Hillen, T.J. (2011) Are more complicated tumor control probability models better? Mathematical Medicine and Biology – A Journal of the IMA 39 pages 6. Jin, Y., Lewis, M.A. (2010) Seasonal Influences on population spread and persistence in streams II: Critical domain size. Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics 71(4):1241-1262 7. Krkosek, M., Connors, B.M., Ford, H., Peacock, S., Mages, P., Ford, J.S., Morton, A., Volpe, J.P. Hilborn, R., Dill, L.M., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Parasitism, predation, and pink salmon population dynamics. Ecological Monographs 21:897-914 8. Lawrie, D., Vallee, D., Bahnmann, B., Varnhagen, C., Loppnow, G.R., Gallin, W.J., Yiu, S., Lu, P., Konhauser, K.O., de Vries, G., Sydora, R.D. (2011) Innovations in integrated first year science laboratories. Annual Society for Teaching and Learning in Higher Education Conference Saskatoon, Canada. 9. Lewis, M.A., Jerde, C. (2010) Invasion Biology. Sourcebook in Theoretical Ecology 10. Li, X., Wang, H. (2010) A stoichiometrically derived algal growth model and its global analysis. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 7:825-836 11. Li, X., Wang, H., Kuang, Y. (2011) Global analysis of a stoichiometric producer-grazer model with Holling-type functional responses. Journal of Mathematical Biology 63(5):901-932 12. Marcoux, M., Larocque, G., Auger-Méthé, M., Dutilleul, P., Humphries, M.M. (2010). Statistical analysis of animal observations and associated marks distributed in time using Ripley’s functions. Animal Behaviour 80: 329-337 13. Marcoux, M., Auger-Méthé, M., Chmelnitsky, E., Ferguson, S., Humphries, M.M. (2011).Local passive acoustic monitoring of narwhal presence in the Canadian Arctic: a pilotproject. Arctic 64:307-316 14. Marleau J.N., Jin, Y., Bishop, J., Fagan, W.F., Lewis, M.A. (2011) A Stoichiometric model of early plant primary succession American Naturalist 177:233-245 15. Matter, S.F., Doyle, A., Illerbrun, K., Wheeler, J., Roland, J. (2011). An assessment of direct and indirect effects of climate change for populations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus Doubleday). Insect Science 18, 385-392. 16. Molnár, P.K., Derocher, A.E., Klanjscek, T., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size. Nature Communications 2:186 24 Centre for Mathematical Biology (CMB) July 1, 2010 to June 30 2011 17. Muirhead, J., Lewis, M.A., MacIsaac, H. (2010) Prediction and error in multi-stage models for spread of aquatic invasive species. Diversity and Distributions 17(2):323-337 18. Muirhead, J. R. and MacIsaac, H.J. (2011). Evaluation of stochastic gravity model selection for use in estimating non-indigenous species dispersal and establishment. Biological Invasions 13: 2445–2458. 19. Norris, S.P., Stelnicki, N., de Vries, G., (2011) Teaching mathematical biology in high school using adapted primary literature. Research in Science Education 42(4):633-649 20. Painter, K., Hillen, T.J. (2010) Spatio-Temporal Chaos in a Chemotaxis Model. Physica DNonlinear Phenomena 240:363-375 21. Pineda-Krch M., O’Brien J., Thunes C., Carpenter T.E. (2010). Potential impact of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease from wild pigs into commercial premises in California. American Journal of Veterinary Research 71:82—88. 22. Pineda-Krch, M., Lewis, M.A. (2010) Evaluation for Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecology Letters Vol. 13. Faculty of 1000 Post-Publication Peer Review 23. Pineda-Krch, M., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Evaluation for Predator-induced defense makes Daphnia more vulnerable to parasites. Evolution Vo. 65. Faculty of 1000 Post Publication Peer Review 24. Potapov, A., Muirhead, J.M., Lele, S.R., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions. Ecological Modelling 22:964-972 25. Rajani, V., Carrero, G., Golan, D.E., de Vries, G., Cairo, C.W. (2011) Analysis of molecular diffusion by first-passage time variance identifies the size of confinement zones. Biophysical Journal 100:1463-1472 26. Stelnicki, N., Braga, J., de Vries, G., Norris, S.P. (2011) Using Adapted Primary Literature to teach high school science. Alberta Science Education Journal 41:11-15 27. Strasser, C., Dibacco, C., Lewis, M.A. (2011) A mechanistic model for understanding invasions with environment as a predictor of population success. Diversity and Distributions 17(6):12101224 28. Wang, H. (2010) Revisit brown lemming population cycles in Alaska: examination of stoichiometry. International Journal of Numerical Analysis and Modeling, Series B, 1:93-108 29. Wang, H., Lewis, M.A. (2011) Evaluation for “Do invasive species show higher phenotypic plasticity than native species and, if so, is it adaptive? A meta-analysis. Ecology Letters Vol 14. Faculty of 1000 Post-Publication Peer Review 30. zu Dohna H., Pineda-Krch M. (2010). Fitting parameters of stochastic birthdeath models to metapopulation data. Theoretical Population Biology 78: 71—76. 25