TURaS Project
(WPs 5.5)
ENGLISH VERSION
UPGRADE
PART 2
of
THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
and
REAL ESTATE MARKET IN ROME AND IN
THE PROVINCE OF ROME
Roma Capitale 10. Dipartimento Tutela Ambientale e del verde – Protezione Civile
Authors: Monastra G.,Baffioni C., Cresce A., Mendozza M., Odorico M., Tudini F.M., Vallocchia S., Zubboli C.
Sommario
THE GENERAL REGULATORY PLAN ...................................................................................................................... 3
The Metropolitan dimension .................................................................................................................................. 3
A plan for functional reorganization ....................................................................................................................... 3
Technical Standards for the Implementation of a General Regulatory Plan ...................................................... 6
Art.65. Urban and metropolitan centralities .......................................................................................................... 6
REAL-ESTATE MARKET....................................................................................................................................... 10
THE GENERAL REGULATORY PLAN
Approved by the Rome City Council with the Regional Act no 18 of the 12th December 2008,
published in the Official Gazette Bollettino Ufficiale della Regione Lazio, on the 14th March 2008, the
new Regulatory Plan came into force. Finally, after more than forty years, Rome has a new set of rules
aimed at guiding its development. The essential principles are the metropolitan dimension,
decentralization and polycentrism, environmental, historical and cultural heritage protection, more
services and urban functions for suburbs, implementation of the railway system.
The Metropolitan dimension
The new urban structure of Rome acknowledges both the social, economic, cultural and environmental
components as well as the richness of its internal differences. Thusly, Rome is part of a settlement
system that goes beyond its administrative borders and, at the same time, it contains a variety of small
cities, each with a specific history and identity. Despite its wide surface, Rome is strictly associated
with the surrounding municipalities: a great number of people have moved in the nearest
municipalities, with an increase in the daily traffic along the ancient consular roads. The system which
regulates the city of Rome needs to be rationalized and strengthened.
The entire structure of the New Regulatory Plan emphasizes the need to include the neighboring
municipalities. Parks and railway lines – the structural elements of the Regulatory Plan – have already
been adapted to metropolitan levels. The new centers of urban and metropolitan services have been
chosen by focusing on the existing planning of the neighboring municipalities as well. Finally, the
internal part of the New Regulatory Plan aims at developing a great decentralization, by delegating
projects of local interest and by putting, from now on, the current Municipios in the position that they
will hold once they will be real “towns within a metropolis”.
A plan for functional reorganization
As a consequence, more than being a tool aimed at modernizing and requalifying the city, the New
Regulatory Plan may also be defined as a plan for functional reorganization. In other words this means
that by adding a limited number of new projects situated in specific areas of the city (new urban
centralities), that have in turn been pinpointed according to the new transport system, the new Plan’s
objective is to create a network of possible and tangible relocations for the new and already existing
functions, paying particular attention to those that a city like Rome can further develop.
Thusly, the model of the city is to be no longer monocentric – composed of the current historical
center and its surroundings, with extended and mono-functional suburbs (residence) – but it comes to
be a multipolar polycentric model articulated in the framework of the peripheral tissues so as to
qualify them by introducing strong functions: it means that the system of the new urban centralities
will be related to the entire metropolitan system of the railway network. Therefore, the physical
structure of Rome, its shape, is redesigned through its three structural elements. The starting point was
the environmental system whose shape has been redesigned, without taking into consideration the noncompatible projects; secondly, it has been possible to define convertible spaces where the new internal
organization mobility establishes the foundation structure of the functional relations between new
development and requalification poles composed of the new urban centralities.
According to the type of the localized functions, there are:
Metropolitan centralities
The strategy of mobility is strictly related to public railway
transport.
Urban centralities
Railway systems at metropolitan level that connect large
areas also outside the GRA (Rome’s ring road highway).
They strengthen existing potentials or they are created
ex- novo and they are functionally connected with the
metropolitan centralities of the Province
Urban metropolitan system for the area inside the GRA that
contributes decreasing private traffic in the central area,
through the public system.
The sectors of metropolitan rebalancing, where a joint
planning is being carried out together with the
neighboring municipalities, through urban requalification
and sustainable development of the territory Programs,
play a role of functional connection.
The environmental strategy takes the shape of a green wheel aimed at
redefining the borders and the models of a compact and sustainable city.
Road mobility is based on a main system composed of a
primary network that complies with the characteristics of
the tissues and the sectors involved.
Highway network
Primary network
The green belt with the large system of regional parks and the Agro-Romano
areas.
The Green wedge with urban parks and the system of unbuilt areas that can
be developed into parks, public and private gardens.
As a consequence, Rome is a metropolis composed of a “system of contiguous cities” that are unified
thanks to the environmental and the mobility system, as well as thanks to the relations between the
urban centralities as far as the functional, economic and social levels are concerned. Whereas, every
city founds its common rules and autonomously uses them for requalification and revitalization at local
level (local centralities and integrated programs). In this framework, the relations between the central
and suburb areas are completely modified. The crucial centripetal relationship, which has so far been
played by the central area composed of the historical center and its municipalities, is now taken into
consideration by the new plan through the polycentric model of the network of the new urban
centralities. This means that the central area plays a new role. However it is difficult to imagine the
central area without its main functions, as this possibility is not desirable (the central area like a
museum), the reallocation of a part of the public administrative functions and of the private tertiary is
already in place and other functions are to be relocated. These reallocations and a better accessibility to
the central area (new underground lines and a containment policy for private transport) will be the
occasion for rationalizing the remaining functions and for a better use of the most important historical
center of the world. Conversely, the offer suggested by the new urban centralities will be the chance
for new activities in need of a qualified localization in our city.
Therefore, the new plan proposes to compact a substantially residential real estate according to a
multipolar model; thusly, it is possible to overcome two of the principles of modern mobility: the
settlement pattern for self-sufficient districts and a reticulated structural model.
According to the above mentioned plan, a double level functional reorganization of the city is
foreseen. The first one is on large scale and concerns the organization and the functioning of the
system of large parks, urban services and railway and road transport at urban level as well as the
system of the new centralities. The second one aims at recomposing the tissues of the existing city that
are currently without a proper shape and an urban collocation1.
Technical Standards for the Implementation of a General
Regulatory Plan
Art.65. Urban and metropolitan centralities
Urban and metropolitan centralities are aimed at the new multipolar organization of the metropolitan
territory, through a strong functional and a morpho-typological characterization, a concentration of
functions both at urban and metropolitan level, as well as a close connection with the communication
networks and the local context.
These criteria mostly concern those parts of the city that are characterized by high accessibility
through public transportation networks (especially railroads), highly functional integration, strong
elements of social and historical identity and a high proclivity to transformation; these elements
contribute to identifying Centralities as points of reference, of settlement identity and polarization of
the new metropolitan organization envisaged by the GRP.
1
Source : ROMA CAPITALE, Urban Planning and Implementation Department.
Centralities are carried out through the Urban Project in order to guarantee a connection with the
mobility system and integration with the local context.
Urban and metropolitan centralities are divided in Defined planning centralities and To be planned
centralities for their implementation. The former comprises those areas of interest for which urban
instruments and intervention programs have already been approved or are being approved; the latter
concerns those areas of interest that have to be submitted to executive planning through the Urban
Project.
The To be planned Centralities encompass: Santa Maria della Pietà, Torre Spaccata, Ponte Mammolo,
Acilia-Madonnetta, Anagnina-Romanina, Saxa Rubra, Cesano, La Storta.
Their implementation is regulated by such said in the “Urban and metropolitan Centralities Forms”
defined in the Appendix 2 of the NTA2.
TO BE PLANNED CENTRALITIES
TOTAL BUILDING RIGHTS
DENOMINATION
Private
GUS
Public
GUS
TOTAL 1
TOTAL 2
TOTAL
2
Source: ROMA CAPITALE, Urban Planning and Implementation Department
Total
GUS
%
Assigned
Areas
The «wheel shape» growth of the built-up areas has led to the deconcentration of the
metropolitan territory
-
-
-
-
DECONCENTRATION
(current model)
High dependence of the smaller areas on the
core ( the “dormitory town”);
Low quality of life for those who inhabit the
smaller municipalities (lack of services for
families);
Poor distribution of economic and productive
development
(concentration
of
job
opportunities within the core);
High percentage of commuters (traffic
congestions);
High consumption of the territory (lowdensity urbanization);
Ineffective action of the government on the
territory (fragmentation of urban planning).
-
-
-
-
-
3
Source: Municipality of Rome
METROPOLIZATION
(future model)
Unitary government of the
metropolitan
development
(international competitiveness);
Low dependence of the smaller
areas
on
the
core
(polycentrism);
Better quality of life for those
who inhabit the smaller
municipalities (local autonomy
for providing services to the
families);
Spreading
of
economic
activities and job opportunities
(local economic development);
Reduction of commuters (multidirectional mobility);
Effectiveness
in
the
management of the integrated
territory (coordinated territory
planning)3.
REAL-ESTATE MARKET
For the city of Rome, Table 1 shows an overall value of the residences estimated for 2010, accounting
for approximately 525 billion euros. The average surface of a residence within the Capital is 102 m2
with an average value of 381 thousand euros (3,720 €/m2).
Among the 23 macro-areas in which the municipality was divided, the Semicentral macro-area
Parioli – Flaminio emerges, where the average residence of 133 m2 is worth about 840 thousand euros
(6,300 €/m2). However, the City Center reveals a higher average value per unit area (6,530 €/m2). The
eastern side of the Capital comprises those macro-areas with residences having a lower value
(Semicentral Tiburtina – Prenestina, Tiburtina – Prenestina, outside the G.R.A. – EAST). Among the
peripheral macro-areas, Cassia – Flaminia and EUR – Laurentina show average values for residence
exceeding 520 thousand euros.
The overall value of the residences is higher within the City Center macro-area (43.9 billion euros),
followed by Tiburtina – Prenestina (39.7 billion euros). Clearly, for the latter, the high figure is due to
the large number of residences, which are twice as much as the ones of the City Center. The macroareas outside the G.R.A. – SOUTH and outside G.R.A. – NORTH show the lower value for the
residences (approximately 4 billion euros), due to its lower levels of urbanization.
ANALISI TERRITORIALE DEL VALORE DEL PATRIMONIO ABITATIVO
Table: Average values and surfaces of the residences within the macro-areas of the city of Rome
ROME Macro-areas
Average surface
per residence
(m2)
Real estate units for whose OMI zone was not traceable
Average unitary
value per residence
(€/m2)
Overall value per
residence (billion €)
Average value per
residence (€)
Figure: Distribution of the average unit value of residences (€/m2) in Rome OMI zone
In the figure, the color of the map stands for the distribution of the average unit value of residences in
different OMI4 zones in Rome.
This paragraph analyzes Lazio residential real estate market focusing on provinces and administrative
centers. The data in the following tables refer to transactions carried out in the first half of 2012 and
their quotations. The regional data of the transactions carried out in the considered period is equal to
25,502 and accounts approximately for 11% of the entire Italian real estate market. During the first
half of 2012, the decrease in sales is endured and sharpened; in fact, the negative trend (the percentage
change in the first half of 2012 compared to the first half of 2001) experiences a significant decrease of
4
The OMI zone is a continuous area of the municipal territory which represents a homogeneous branch of the local real estate market,
with an unvarying evaluation considering socio-environmental and economic conditions. This uniformity means homogeneity in
settlement location, urban, historic-environmental, socio-economic characteristics, as well as urban infrastructure and service facilities.
-22,7% (total Lazio region). In spite of the notable decrease in sales, in Rome (18% NTN5 of Italian
administrative centers) and its provinces (8,76% NTN of the national total) numerous transactions
compared to the national territory are registered.
Table: NTN, average quotations and percentage change – provinces
Provinces
NTN 1st half
of 2012
NTN %
change 1st half
of 2012/1st half
of 2011
Frosinone
Latina
Rieti
Rome
Viterbo
Lazio
Italy
1,213
1,909
799
20,133
1,448
25,502
229,694
-24.7%
-30.7%
-10.9%
-21.8%
-26.9%
-22.7%
-22.6%
NTN % Italy
Quotation 1st
half of 2012
€/m2
Quotation %
change 1st half
of 2012/ 2nd
half of 2011
0.53%
0.83%
0.35%
8.76%
0.63%
11.10%
100.00%
1,063
1,565
1,205
2,912
1,332
2,443
1,574
0.0%
-2.2%
0.1%
0.1%
-1.8%
-0.1%
-0.6%
Quotation
index number
1st half of 2012
(ref = 1st half
of 2004)
150.9
137.6
158.0
144.5
156.2
144.9
129.0
The negative trend in the Lazio real estate market occurs in every province with a more significant
decrease in the province of Latina, -30.7% (1,909 NTN). However, the largest contraction per number
of transaction (5,591 NTN less than in the first half of 2011) is recorded in the province of Rome with
-21.8% (20,133 NTN).
The average of regional benchmark quotations, recorded by the Real Estate Market Observatory during
the first half of 2012 accounts for 2,443 €/m2, presenting a minimal deflection of -0.1% compared to
the previous period. According to the provincial average value scale of the region, the average
quotation of the province of Rome (2,912 €/m2) is approximately 2.74 times higher than the minimum
value registered in the province of Frosinone (1,063 €/m2).
Administrative center NTN analysis presents the same trend of the provinces, the highest contractions
are recorded in the Municipality of Latina, -44.9% (451 NTN) and Viterbo, -36.1% (329 NTN).
Table: NTN, average quotations and percentage change - administrative centers
Administrative
centers
Frosinone
Latina
Rieti
Rome
Viterbo
Lazio
Italy
5
NTN 1st half
of 2012
NTN %
change 1st half
of 2012/1st half
of 2011
131
451
185
13,287
329
14,382
73,815
-10.9%
-44.9%
-17.6%
-20.0%
-36.1%
-21.4%
-22.6%
NTN % Italy
Quotation 1st
half of 2012
€/m2
Quotation %
change 1st half
of 2012/ 2nd
half of 2011
0.18%
0.61%
0.25%
18.00%
0.45%
19.48%
100.00%
1,948
1,594
1,568
3,385
1,488
3,221
2,289
0.0%
-5.2%
0.6%
0.4%
-4.4%
0.3%
-0.5%
Quotation
index number
1st half of 2012
(ref = 1st half
of 2004)
184.6
127.3
156.6
138.9
147.7
139.2
130.1
Number of “standard” transactions (property right purchasing and selling are “counted” according to each real estate unit, considering
the ownership share of the relative transaction. It means that if only one ownership share fraction of a real estate unit is sold, for example
50%, this transaction will be counted as 0,5).
In different administrative centers, as for provinces, quotation variations have a different connotation,
while in Latina and Viterbo a more significant deflation is registered (-5.2% and -4.4%) in the other
cities there are no notable changes, confirming a substantial stability.
Rome, with 3.385 €/m2, presents an average value over 2.3 times higher than the minimum value
registered in Rieti (1,568 €/m2).
As shown in the figure below, the province of Rome holds 778.9% of the entire regional real estate
market; followed by the province of Latina (7.5%), Viterbo (5.7%) and Frosinone (4.8%) with notably
reduced percentages. Lastly there is Rieti, with only 3.1% of the regional market.
Figure: provincial NTN distribution during the first half of 2012
Frosinone
Latina
Rieti
Rome
Viterbo
According to the figure, a real estate market stability is registered: the slight quotation deflection of the
first half of 2012 confirms steady prices after the halt in the notable growth registered from the first
half of 2004 (analysis reference) to the first half of 2008.
Figure: Index number from the first half of 2004, NTN and average quotations – administrative centers and provinces
Rome quotations
Provincial quotations
Provincial NTN
Rome NTN
The table below shows the Municipality of Rome as one of the 8 Italian major cities. Rome counts for
18.1% of the NTN total number of Italian administrative centers, registering a drop in transactions
with a percentage variation of -20.1% if compared with the data of the first half of 2011.
Amongst the other administrative centers that are all affected by a deflection, the cities of Palermo,
Geneva and Bologna stand out showing a significant decrease in NTN percentages.
Table: NTN and main administrative centers variation
Main Administrative centers
NTN 1st
half of
2012
NTN % var. 1st half of 2012/ 1st
half of 2011
Administrative centers
NTN %
Bologna
1,893
-22.1%
2.6%
Florence
1,842
-21.3%
2.5%
Geneve
2,736
-23.5%
3.7%
Milan
7,938
-19.5%
10.8%
Naples
2,991
-12.1%
4.1%
Palermo
2,061
-26.7%
2.8%
Rome
13,287
-20.0%
18.1%
Turin
4,917
-19.8%
6.7%
Main Administrative Centers
37,665
-20.1%
51.2%
Italian Administrative Centers
73,582
-22.7%
100.0%
In this paragraph the dynamics of the residential real estate market over the first half of 2012 are
indicated. To provide a better data analysis, the city has been divided into 23 macro-areas of different
size, which aggregate a variable number of OMI areas (308 in total). The different macro-areas have
similar characteristics as far as it urbanization density, socio-economic circumstances, services,
infrastructures and geographical position are concerned.
As it has been pinpointed in the table overleaf, the highest number of real estate buying and selling
activities registered over the first half of 2012 is ascribable to the macro-areas of Tiburtina
Prenestina (1,574 NTN), Outside the G.R.A EAST (1,307 NTN), Aurelia (926 NTN) and Salaria
(833 NTN). Nevertheless, only the macro-area of Tiburtina Prenestina shows an increase of +2.7%,
whereas the other three macro-areas report considerable losses: Outside the G.R.A EAST (-21.1%),
Aurelia (-22.7%) and Salaria (-26.5%). The most prominent portion of the Roman market is
represented by the Tiburtina Prenestina macro-area, which accounts for a portion equal to 11.8% of the
total NTN of Rome.
With regards to the previous period of time, 18 out of 23 Roman macro-areas, which account for
nearly 75% of the dwelling stock of the municipality, registered a NTN negative variation ranging
from -2.8% (Semicentral Prati-Trionfale macro-area) to -26.5% (Salaria macro-area). Amidst the five
areas showing a positive trend with an increase that goes from +0.5% to +196.9% the macro-areas of
Outside the G.R.A South (+196.9%) and Eur Laurentina (+20.6%) stand out with a significant
increment.
Figure : Roman urban macro-areas map
The highest quotation is registered in the Centro Storico macro-area (6,892 €/m2) whose differential
accounts for 1.86 times the municipal average. There are then, the macro-areas of Semicentral Parioli
– Flaminio 6,164 €/m2, Semicentral Prati -Trionfale 5,386 €/m2 and Semicentral Salaria – Trieste
– Nomentano 5,142 €/m2 which are the most prestigious areas of the town. At municipal level the
macro-areas with the lowest average quotations are to be found in certain areas outside the G.R.A,
particularly in the areas: East 2.569 €/m2, North 2.599 €/m2, West 2,649 €/m2. The variation of the
quotations over the first half of 2012 show stability with minimum fluctuations nearly zero if
compared with the quotation variation occurred over the second half of 2011.
The overall average increase registered in Rome accounts for 0.2%. It stands as an element of
continuity of a market that, in terms of quotations, continues to fare well despite the negative economic
and financial situation.
Table: NTN, average quotations and percentage change - Roman urban macro-areas
Urban macro-areas
NTN
1st half
of
2012
% var.
NTN 1st
half of
2012/ 1st
half of
2011
% NTN
Munici
pality
1st half of
2012 €/m2
quotation
Quotation
variation
% 1st half
of 2012/
2nd half of
2011
Quotation
differential
1st half of
2012
with
regards to the
municipal
average
ROME
In detail, among the single OMI areas (which will be addressed more specifically in the comment
before each table indicating the macro-areas), the areas standing out for a greater number of buying
and selling activities are: Don Bosco 1 (279 NTN – equal to 2.10% out of the total municipal value) –
Appia Tuscolana macro-area; Castel di Leva C (270 NTN – equal to 2.03% out of the total municipal
value) – macro-area Outside the G.R.A South and Ostiense 2 (254 NTN – equal to 1.91% out of the
total municipal value) –Semicentral Ostiense Navigatori macro-area. As for quotations, the buying and
selling minimum average value is registered in the OMI area San Vittorino A standing for €/m2 1.850
(Outside the G.R.A. East macro-area), whereas the highest average value can be found in the areas
of Centro Storico: Parione (10.650 €/sq equivalent to 2.88 times the municipal average), Campo
Marzio (2.70 times the municipal average), Trevi (2.47 times the municipal average), Colonna and
Regola (2.36 times the municipal average). A particular attention have to be paid as well to the
quotations of the macro-areas Semicentral Parioli-Flaminio; Pinciano (1.82 times the municipal
average) and Parioli (1.81 times the municipal average). Within the classification have to be enlisted
as well the OMI areas of Prati (1.73 times the municipal average), Torricola (1.75) and Divino
Amore (1.69); as far as the two latter areas are concerned, the values considered are related to
prestigious residential types (villas and cottages)6.
Figure : Map of the distribution of NTN in OMI areas over the first half of 2012
6
Source: Agenzia del Territorio – Nota territoriale Andamento del mercato immobiliare nel I Semestre 2012 – Settore Residenziale; Analisi territoriale
del valore del Patrimonio abitativo.
Figure: Map of the quotation differentials in OMI areas over the first half of 2012
In the Centro Storico macro-area, a number of 414 transactions has been registered that accounts for
3.12% of municipal NTN; the areas of Esquilino, Trastevere and Monti are the areas reporting a higher
number of buying and selling activities, with a variation rate respectively of -7.5%, -12.7% and 30.3%, with regards to the first half of 2011. Among the areas exceeding the average quotation, that is
equal to 6.892 €/m2, have to be mentioned: Parione (10.650 €/m2), Campo Marzio (10.000 €/m2) and
Trevi (9.150 €/m2).
The purchase preference within the macro-area (figure 12), in relation to the dimensional types 1, is
given to the “Small” size (Small, from 3 to 4 compartments in the measurement of the floor area of
dwellings), standing for 26.1% of residential property stock. There is also quite an abundant demand of
“Medium” sized dwelling (Medium from 5.5 to 7 compartments) and “Small or Medium” sized
dwellings (Small or medium from 4.5 to 5 compartments).