Memo
To:
Tetsuo NAKAZAWA
Chief, World Weather Research Division
Research Department
From:
Rajul PANDYA, UCAR
Thomas HOPSON, NCAR
Benjamin LAMPTEY, Regional Maritime University
Re:
Request to use TIGGE Data in near real time for meningitis prediction pilot study
Date: 27 September 2011
Objectives of the project
The project aims to demonstrate that accurate weather forecasts can improve the
management of meningitis in the Sahel region of Africa.
Meningitis epidemics occur every 7-10 years in parts of the Sahel, and always during
the dry season. Using past epidemiological and weather data, we’ve demonstrated
that a number of meteorological variables, including surface relative humidity and
temperature, influence the number of cases of meningitis in a give region. Further,
we’ve developed a statistical model that can be used within a season to predict both
the number of future cases of meningitis and the date of the end of the epidemic
season if the inputs include the number of current cases as well as recent, current,
and predicted values of temperature and relative humidity (and to a lesser extent,
wind speed). We would like to use TIGGE data during this upcoming dry season to
predict the number of cases of meningitis as accurately and as timely as possible.
If the THORPEX International Project Office feels our project could potentially serve
as a THORPEX program demonstration project, we would certainly welcome this
opportunity.
Relation to the commercial grants/sponsors
The work is sponsored by google.org, and the results of the trial will be made
available to them, as well as an analysis of the socio-economic, e.g. health, benefit.
We will also make a prototype forecast system/data integration system available,
but not the underlying data. Finally, our prototype system will be accessible and
open to any interested party. As part of our testing of this system, we would like to
work with ACMAD, the World Health Organization, and others to explore whether
this can work in an African context.
Reason to request relaxation of the 48h delay
Our goal is to make the forecasts available to vaccination decision makers in a trial
mode so they can apply it and provide feedback about its utility. The most accurate
possible and timely weather data would provide the most useful trial and the most
relevant feedback. Since the ultimate use of the meningitis forecasts depends on
their perceived value in this trial, we’d like to have the most valuable, accurate, and
timely input data.
Which data are requested
Surface data, particularly temperature and humidity, as well as wind speed and
precipitation (the latter as possible surrogates for atmospheric dust content).
Duration of data access (up to 1 year, extendable)
We would like to use the data from now until the end of the dry season, late June
2012, with a possible extension into the December 2012 - June 2013 dry season.
Any contacts made with data centre / provider(s)
NCAR would be the natural place to get the data, because we are also located at
NCAR and have been using the archive located here. Doug Schuster at NCAR has
been assisting us. We have not contacted other data or forecast centres with respect
to medium-range time scale data access for this project.
Contact points
Raj Pandya, UCAR, pandya@ucar.edu, +1 303 497 2650
Thomas Hopson, NCAR, hopson@ucar.edu +1 303 497 2706
Benjamin Lamptey, Regional Maritime University, bllamptey@gmail.com,
+233 265 121 750