Discussion Document
Limpopo Environmental Outlook Report
2016
1st DRAFT
Chapter 1: Climate Change for the Limpopo Province,
South Africa
This document is an ongoing outcome of a consultative process
that underpins the Limpopo Environmental Outlook Report (LEO)
2016. It can be quoted only with the explicit and written
permission of LEDET. It has been reviewed by specialists in the
field, as well as members of the provincial Steering Committee for
the LEO Project. All LEO Reports are distributed as widely as
possible, for inputs and comments.
This document was prepared by EcoAfrica under the aegis of Limpopo Economic Development,
Environment and Tourism (LEDET), for stakeholders to engage with the environmental assessment
and reporting. Its date of release is the 9th December, 2015.
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Discussion Document
Table of Contents
List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................... 3
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Drivers and Pressures .......................................................................................................................... 5
3. State, Impacts and Trends ................................................................................................................... 6
4. Global Change Aspects ...................................................................................................................... 12
5. Responses ........................................................................................................................................ 14
6. Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................................. 15
References
........................................................................................................................................ 17
List of Figures
Figure 1: Pressures on climate change in the Limpopo Province............................................................. 6
Figure 2: Annual rainfall for 4 stations in different climate zones in the Limpopo Province (SAWS,
2015) ........................................................................................................................................ 7
Figure 3: Rainfall for South Africa in mm for the season July 2007–January 2008 (top left), July 2010–
January 2011 (top right), and July 2014–January 2015 (bottom), (SAWS, 2015) .................... 7
Figure 4: Average minimum and maximum annual temperature for four stations in different climate
zones in the Limpopo Province (SAWS, 2015) ........................................................................ 8
Figure 5: Evaporative demand (mm/day) during September 2015 (ARC, 2015) ..................................... 9
Figure 6: Standardised Precipitation Index for South Africa for period January-December 2005 (left),
November 2014-October2015, (SAWS, 2015) ....................................................................... 10
Figure 7: Total annual area burned in the Limpopo Province, 2001 - 2007 based on (NASA, n.d.)....... 11
Figure 8: Index value of vulnerability to climate change for South African municipalities (Turpie &
Visser, 2012)........................................................................................................................... 14
List of Tables
Table 1: Summary of indicators for the climate change assessment of the Limpopo Province .............. 5
Table 2: Estimated CO2eq emission for the Limpopo Province ............................................................... 11
Table 3: Annual ave. temp. increase projections for the Limpopo/Olifants/Inkomati
Hydrological zone (DEA, 2013) .................................................................................................. 12
Table 4: Rainfall projections for the Limpopo/Olifants/Inkomati Hydrological zone (DEA, 2013) ........ 12
Table 5: Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Limpopo environment and
society, ...................................................................................................................................... 13
Table 6: Summary of Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Limpopo Province. After (DEA,
2015) ......................................................................................................................................... 14
Table 7: Summary of the outlook for climate change based on indicators considered ........................ 16
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List of Acronyms
°C
Degrees Celsius
CO2
Carbon Dioxide
DoE
Department of Energy
GHG
Greenhouse Gasses
km2
Squared kilometre
LOIH
Limpopo-Olifants-Inkomati Hydrological Zone
mm
Millimetres
MODIS
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
MWh
Megawatt hour
SANBI
South African National Biodiversity Institute
SAWS
South African Weather Service
SPI
Standardized Precipitation Index
tpa
Tons per annum
USD
United States Dollars
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Discussion Document
1. Introduction
When talking about climate, allusion is made to the long term average weather patterns of a given region
(i.e. temperature, pressure, precipitation). In this context, climate change then refers to perceived increases
in the long term average temperature of the earth’s climate system. This temperature increase alters typical
processes of ice formation and melting, changes the hydrological cycles and modifies the air and ocean
currents. As a consequence, social, biological and ecological systems are also affected; and there is a strong
threat on food supply, health, availability of water resources, economic growth, etc.
The understanding of climate change has been growing and today scientist are 95% certain that the
perceived increases in global temperature are mostly caused by the concentration of Greenhouse Gases1
(GHG) in the atmosphere and other human activities (IPCC, 2014). Solar radiation penetrates into the earth
warming its surface; however only a fraction of this radiation is returned back to the space as most of it is
trapped by the accumulation of these GHG gasses. The trapped radiation goes back to heat up the earth’s
surface, increasing its temperature just as a greenhouse operates.
Most of the GHG are present naturally in the atmosphere in small proportions; however since the industrial
revolution their concentration has notably risen. This rise has primarily been linked to the combustion of
fossil fuels driven by the demand for energy, goods and services, and to the conversion of natural
ecosystems to intensive land use.
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding
decade since 1850. The globally averaged surface temperature shows a warming of 0.85°C over the last 30
years (IPCC, 2014). Mitigation plans for a substantial emission reduction of GHG are needed around the
globe to limit the warming below 2oC2. South Africa may be one of the few African countries that could
contribute to mitigating climate change, as its carbon intensity economy places the country as the number
12 contributor world wide of CO2 emissions (WDI, 2011).
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change because of multiple stresses and low
adaptive capacity. The southern African region is prone to the occurrence of droughts and floods
(Meadows, 2006), and the panorama for Limpopo is not different. Main concerns are found around an
increased water stress and a reduction in agriculture, affecting food security and worsening malnutrition.
During the last five decades the mean average temperature in
South Africa has increased by 1.5 times the observed global
average of 0.65oC. Maximum and minimum temperatures have
increased across the country, and rainfall has shown high interannual variability and less number of rain days almost everywhere
in the country, especially during the autumn months (DEA, 2013).
The Limpopo province is particularly vulnerable to climate change,
as not only extreme climate events are expected but the low
adaptive capacity of the province is pressuring the resilience of the
more fragile communities and ecosystems.
Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate variability and
change because of multiple stresses and
low adaptive capacity. The livelihoods of
people in Africa, including South Africa,
are often directly linked to the climate
of the area (CSIR, 2010).
1
The primary GHG in the earth atmosphere are: Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), Ozone (O3),
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and water vapor.
2 Relative to pre-industrial levels
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In this chapter an assessment on the climate change status of the Limpopo Province is performed from the
observed weather changes, carbon footprint and vulnerability; using the described indicators in Table 1 as a
framework. While reading this chapter, keep in mind that climate change is a cross-cutting issue and thus
considerations in this regard are presented in most of the other chapters including the ones related to
energy, water, land, human settlements and biodiversity.
Table 1: Summary of indicators for the climate change assessment of the Limpopo Province
Indicators Considered
Rain
Temperature
Evaporation
Disturbance regimes:
Flood
Drought
Fire
Carbon footprint
Description and Comment
Annual rainfall for four different stations across the four climatic
zones of the Limpopo Province.
Average min and max temperature for four different stations across
the four climatic zones of Limpopo Province.
Potential Evapotranspiration
Standardised Precipitation Index Comparison
Area burned per year
Estimated CO2eq emissions per type of source
2. Drivers and Pressures
Without a doubt, the main drivers of climate change are population and economic growth. As the
population numbers increase, more people aspire to higher material standards - creating an even greater
demand for goods and services as for the energy to provide these. Transportation, industry, commerce,
and the residential sector are the greatest contributors to GHG emissions, due to their high demand of
energy which is supplied from non-renewable sources. The energy sector in South Africa is responsible for
about 89% of the national emissions of CO2, mainly from energy industries (57%), transportation (9%) and
manufacturing and construction (9%) (DEA, 2014). Other sources of emissions are industrial processes and
agriculture and land usage.
A brief description of pressuring activities for the Limpopo Province is presented below in Figure 1. Each
one of these activities has been discussed in more detail in other chapters of this document.
Power generation
•Electricty generation mainly
from coal, that suplies provincial
and national needs
•Minimun development of
renewal energy projects
•Power stations are the main
source of CO2 in the province
Industry
•Energy intense industries such
as mining and mining related
activities
•Industrial energy inneficient
systems
Residential
•One of the greatest consumers
of electricity
•Strongly influences the electricty
consumpption patterns, which is
a challenge for secure supply of
energy from renewable sources
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Transport
Agriculture
Waste
•High flow of vehicles and heavy
duty vehicles
•Connecting road networks for
South Africa, Zimbabwe and
Botswana
•Methane emissions from poor
sanitation facilities and limited
service delivery
•Prevalecence of burning
practices for disposal of waste
•Deforestation and land
transformation
•Methane emissions from cattle
and game
•Fertilizers in agriculture a great
scale
Figure 1: Pressures on climate change in the Limpopo Province
3. State, Impacts and Trends
Climate change is becoming increasingly apparent in Limpopo. The usual manifestations of climate change are
evident by the long term changes in weather indicators such as rainfall or temperature. This section
presents briefly the weather records for the Limpopo Province as indicators of climate change.
The Limpopo Climate
Rainfall
Four
climatic
regions
can
be
distinguished in the Province:
a. The subtropical plateau, a flat
elevated interior area hot and dry
with winter rain.
b. The moderate eastern plateau with
warm to hot and rainy summers, and
cold dry winters.
c. The escarpment region with colder
weather because of the altitude and
rain all year around; and
d. The subtropical Lowveld region, of
hot-rainy summers and warm-dry
winters, also known as the South
African Bushveld.
c
a
d
b
3
Typical rainfall for the province ranges from 200mm in the hot dry areas to
1500mm in the high rainfall areas, with most of it happening between
October and April. Rainfall in the province varies significantly between
years. There has been a perceptible decrease in the total rainfall on much
of the eastern part of Southern Africa including most of the Limpopo River
Basin (Malherbe, et al., 2012). This can have serious impacts on the water
balance of the region, affecting the largely rural population dependant on
agriculture.
Figure 2 shows the annual rainfall for the period 1993-20153 as recorded at
different stations across the four Limpopo Climatic Zones. These are:
Lephalale station in the subtropical plateau, Mokopane station in the
eastern plateau, Tzaneen station in the escarpment, and Phalaborwa
station in the Lowveld. Inter-annual variations are observed as expected,
and a decreasing trend is seen especially in the Mokopane and Tzaneen
stations. A comparison of rainfall for the season July-January presents
notable reduction in the rainfall over Province and the rest of the country
(refer to Figure 3)
When available. December not included.
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Figure 2: Annual rainfall for 4 stations in different climate zones in the Limpopo Province (SAWS, 2015)
Figure 3: Rainfall for South Africa in mm for the season July 2007–January 2008 (top left), July 2010–
January 2011 (top right), and July 2014–January 2015 (bottom), (SAWS, 2015)
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Discussion Document
Temperature
Evidence from observations indicates a strong warming trend, this has already manifested itself over
southern Africa (Kruger & Shongwe, 2004). Projected increases in air temperatures for South Africa are
likely to be higher over the interior and lower over the coast (DST, 2010). Average annual minimum and
maximum temperatures for the last 20 years across the Province are displayed in Figure 4Figure 2, the
increasing trend is recognisable especially for the case of maximum temperatures.
Figure 4: Average minimum and maximum annual temperature for four stations in different climate
zones in the Limpopo Province (SAWS, 2015) 4
Evaporation
High levels of evaporation mean that the soil dries up quickly reducing the amount of water available for plant
uptake; this results in crops being more prone to drought. Dryland subsistence farming is generally not viable
given the variable rainfall, high evaporation and high evapotranspiration. Evaporation is highest during the
rainfall season, and it significantly reduces effective rainfall, runoff, soil infiltration and groundwater recharge.
The Evaporative Demand in Limpopo ranges from about 2 mm to 5 mm per day. Figure 5 presents the calculated
Potential Evapotranspiration for the month of September 2015, calculations are based on measured
temperature, humidity, wind and solar radiation data. Potential evapotranspiration remains high for the
province, especially in the western regions. The projected increase in temperature will partially offset any
4
Tzaneen Station was relocated in 2006/07 from “Grenshoek Tzaneen” to “Tzannen Westfalia state”
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increase in rainfall, due to an increase in potential evaporation of about 5% per 1oC (Schulze, 2010), what
translates into less water available for use in the future.
Figure 5: Evaporative demand (mm/day) during September 2015 (ARC, 2015)
Disturbance regimes
The increase in extreme events may be at least partially attributed to the significant increase in surface
temperatures over the region. Such an increase would be favourable to the occurrence of heat convection and
convective rainfall. For South Africa, high impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger
days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence (Engelbrecht, et al., 2015).
Reference is made below to some events -drought, floods and fires- ; although quantification of such is not a
straightforward task. Its importance lies as the resilience to climate variability and extreme weather events are
the basis for a disaster management approach.
Drought
Drought is considered one of the most complex and least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more
people than any other hazard; but it is also the most important natural disaster in southern Africa in economic,
social and environmental terms (Buckland, et al., 2000). It is believed that at least 60 percent of sub-Saharan
Africa is vulnerable to drought and probably 30 percent is highly vulnerable. Extreme drought in the Limpopo
River Basin is a regular phenomenon and has been recorded for more than a century at intervals of 10-20 years,
although the periodicity of droughts is not necessarily so predictable (FAO, 2004).
Defining and monitoring drought is a difficult task due to its diverse geographical and temporal distribution.
Based on rainfall events, the Standardized Precipitation Index is the most used tool to investigate drought. The
SPI gives the deviation of rainfall events in a selected time scale from the long-term mean. An example of SPI
calculated for South Africa is displayed in Figure 6.
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Discussion Document
Figure 6: Standardised Precipitation Index for South Africa for period January-December 2005 (left),
November 2014-October2015, (SAWS, 2015)
Floods
Short duration-intense rainfalls result in floods that can potentially
cause serious problems to urban infrastructure (i.e. dams, bridges,
and storm water systems), population of informal settlements
located in floodplains, and agriculture. The impacts and economical
loses of extreme events is such that some authors (Von Storch &
Zwiers, 1988) suggest to focus climate change analysis on changes
in extreme events rather than changes on climatic means. The
global risk platform5 indicates the average economic loss for a
country due to disasters. The estimated amount for South Africa
Flooding in Bela-Bela, Limpopo -March 2014
during the period 2005 to 2014 was of 118 million USD; 30% of this
amount is due to flood events and 20% from storm events.
The projected change in the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events is defined as 20 mm of rain
falling within 24 hours over an area of 0.5° x 0.5° (Engelbrecht, et al., 2012). Recent information regarding
changes in extreme rainfall events and heavy daily rainfall in Limpopo and South Africa is limited. Higher rainfall
projections with less rainfall days indicate that the events and the possibility of severe rain events may increase
(CSIR, 2010).
Fires
Other serious impacts brought by drought and aggravated by strong winds are the devastating veld fires, which
destroy large areas of grazing at a time when grass is in short supply. Commercial timber and orchards are also
prone to damage at such times (SAWS, 2015). The Waterberg and Mopani DM are particularly susceptible to
experience fires on the denominated grassland, bushland and woodlands, especially during the months of July to
September. Figure 7 presents the total annual burned area in the Limpopo Province for the period 2002 to 2007
as recorded from satellite images.
5
http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/zaf/data/
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Discussion Document
Figure 7: Total annual area burned in the Limpopo Province, 2001 - 2007 based on (NASA, n.d.)
Carbon foot print
The latest published national greenhouse gas inventory for South Africa, was conducted for the period 20002010, finding the energy generation as the main contributor to national emissions of GHG (78%) (DEA, 2014).
This inventory is developed at national level and does not discriminate emissions per province. Up to date there
is not an official GHG inventory published for the Limpopo Province; although the nomination of GHG as criteria
pollutants, and the future implementation of a national reporting system national reporting system of
emissions is expected to facilitate the task in the middle-long term.
For the development of this document, an estimation of GHG emissions for the province was attempted from
the compilation of partial results published in different sources, the summary is presented in Table 2 below.
Likewise national results, it is power generation the main contributor to the CO2eq emissions of the province.
Table 2: Estimated CO2eq emission for the Limpopo Province
Source of emissions
CO2(eq) tpa
67
% Total
Source of information
25,000,000
82.%
Eskom7
Small Boilers
1,564,928
5.1%
Limpopo AQMP8
Liquid fuels (exc. traffic)
1,229,001
4.0%
Agriculture Game
951,176
3.1%
(du Toit, et al., 2013)
Biomass (veld fires)
715,367
2.3%
10
Traffic
578,214
1.9%
Limpopo AQMP8
Sanitation
178,964
0.6%
11
Agri. Small stock
126,865
0.4%
(du Toit, et al., 2013)
Brickworks
82,309
0.3%
Limpopo AQMP8
Fertilizer Manufacturing
43,305
0.1%
Limpopo AQMP8
Power gen (exc. Medupi )
Solid Waste
no available
-
Residential wood/coal
no available
-
Est. Total Limpopo
9
30,470,130
6
Medupi CO2 emissions expected=0.75 tons/MWh (about 32 million tons once fully operational)
http://www.eskom.co.za/OurCompany/SustainableDevelopment/ClimateChangeCOP17/Documents/ Air_quality_and_climate_change.pdf
8
Provincial Air Quality Management Plan (LEDET, 2013)
9 Estimated from 2014 Provincial sales of liquid fuels from the DoE (http://www.energy.gov.za/files/energyStats_frame.html), and Defra emissions
factors
10 Estimated from burned area from MODIS burned scar data, and emissions factor from 2006 IPCCC guidelines
11
Estimated from type of sanitation per household (2011 Census-StatsSA) and emissions factors from 2006 IPCCC guidelines
7
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Discussion Document
Est. National emissions 201012
Provincial % of national
518,239,000
5.9%
4. Global Change Aspects
Climate scenarios for South Africa have been modelled through local
Temperatures over Limpopo are
and international climate modelling expertise13, over six hydrological
projected to increase drastically,
zones (DEA, 2013). The Limpopo province is included within the
reaching a regime never observed
Limpopo-Olifants-Inkomati Hydrological (LOIH) zone. During the
before in the recorded climate of the
modelling results, less uncertainty was found in temperature
region (DEA, 2013)
predictions than in rainfall predictions. Notice that only general
conclusions of the study are presented in this document, for additional
information regarding methodology and complete results the reader is referred to the Long Term
Adaptation Scenarios Report and the Climate trends and scenarios for South Africa Technical report.
Minimum temperatures experienced in Limpopo have increased about 0.5-1.2oC in the last twenty years,
and about 0.6-0.9oC for maximum recorded temperature. Modelled results for temperature in the near
future for the LOIH zone suggest a scenario within the realm of present days, with slighted increase towards
2030 reaching 2oC. Mid-future scenario suggest an increase on temperatures between 1-5oC; and the long
term scenario predicts an increase between 3-7oC from the baseline scenario.
Table 3: Annual ave. temp. increase projections for the Limpopo/Olifants/Inkomati Hydrological zone (DEA, 2013)
Scenario
Period
Annual average temperature increase
Baseline
(1971-2005)
Near-Future
(2015-2035)
2oC
Within realm of present day climate
Mid-Future
(2040-2060)
1-3oC (2-5oC)
Beyond present say climatology range
Long term
(2080-2100)
3-6oC (4-7oC)
Well beyond natural temp. variability
Rainfall projections for the LOIH zone are presented in Table 4 for four possible scenarios. The probability of
occurrence of scenario 3 and 4 is reduced significantly if mitigation strategies are put on place. However,
even under strong mitigation responses, wetter or dryer scenarios are expected to bring socio-economic
implications for vulnerable communities in the form of water resource availability and frequency of extreme
events (i.e. droughts, floods).
Table 4: Rainfall projections for the Limpopo/Olifants/Inkomati Hydrological zone (DEA, 2013)
Scenario
Expected rainfall
Season
Likelihood of occurrence
if mitigation plans
1- Warmer/wetter
Increase
Spring and summer
Same
2- Warmer/drier
Decrease
Summer, spring, autumn
Same
3- Hotter/wetter
Strong increase
Spring and summer
Reduced
4- Hotter/drier
Strong decrease
Summer, spring, autumn
Reduced
12
(DEA, 2014)
13
Using statistical and dynamical downscaling methodologies based on outputs from IPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5. These represent an
unmitigated future energy pathway and mitigated future energy pathway.
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Projected changes in rainfall and temperatures carry the potential of affecting directly or indirectly the
environment, society and economy. Table 5 presents a summary of the expected impacts that climate
change can have in different areas in the Limpopo Province. Nevertheless, beyond the potential impacts, a
more complete climate change analysis of a region should include the exposure and resilience of the
different communities to these impacts through a vulnerability assessment.
Table 5: Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Limpopo environment and society,
after (Schulze, 2010; DEA, 2015)
Sector
Climate change effects
Water









Agriculture


Biodiversity
Social






Decrease in summer rainfall
Low/High river flows are anticipated to decrease leading to water shortages
Increased evapotranspiration (potential evaporation of about 5% per 1oC ) and decreased
soil moisture
Reduced recharge of groundwater and falling water levels in boreholes.
Flooding, contamination of available water and droughts
Decreased productivity of food crops
Increased crop irrigation requirements due to increased temperature
Decreased soil moisture levels as a result in changed runoff patterns
Crops grown on marginal land will have to contend with land degradation and reduced soil
productivity.
Crop and livestock production could be adversely affected by changes in the
distributions of diseases, pests and insects
High vulnerability of certain agricultural crops due to decreased water availability and
increased temperature
Increased heat stress on plants, animals and humans
Changing ecosystems leading to species shifts and extinction
Increased alien vegetation and increased risk of wild fires
Food security
Health impacts will arise or worsen due to both climate stresses, and climate shocks
Damage of livelihoods
Vulnerability
In climate change, vulnerability is typically given by the exposure and sensitivity to climate stress on one
hand; and the capacity to deal with the effects of that stress on the other (Eakin & Luers, 2006). South
African most recent index of vulnerability to climate change of the local municipalities is presented in Figure
8 (Turpie & Visser, 2012). This vulnerability index was calculated taking into account two sets of variables;
the climate related potential impacts (i.e. flood frequency, change in temp., water stress), and the adaptive
capacity (i.e. infrastructure, governance).
The results place the Limpopo’s municipalities in a highly vulnerable situation, particularly in zones
corresponding to former homeland areas. Seven municipalities from Limpopo are found within the list of
the twenty municipalities declared as highly vulnerable, these are: Ephraim Mogale, Elias Motsoaledi and
Fetakgomo in the Shekhukhune DM, Greater Giyani and Greater Letaba in the Mopani DM, Thulamela in the
Vembe DM and Aganang in the CDM. The Province is followed in number by the Eastern Cape Province with
five municipalities in the list. As the key areas relating to this poor performance the DMs have identified
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Discussion Document
the need for a strong and improved governance, deforestation, deficient waste management systems and
lack of infrastructure, amongst others (DEA, 2015).
Figure 8: Index value of vulnerability to climate change for South African municipalities (Turpie & Visser, 2012)
An important step towards building an adequate climate adaptation strategy for the Limpopo province is to
identify the key areas of vulnerability or a Vulnerability Assessment. The current assessment reveals that the
sectors in Limpopo province displaying greater climate change vulnerability, in relative terms, are: agriculture,
rural livelihoods and settlements, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, water supply, and (more so in the long
term) public health and safety, plus disaster management (DEA, 2015). A summary of the assessment is displayed
in Table 6 below.
Table 6: Summary of Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Limpopo Province. After
5. Responses
The national response to climate change involves two aspects: the mitigation approach by reducing the GHG
emissions, and the adaptation response involving the preparation to deal with the climate change impacts.
Mitigation plans are outlined in the National Climate Change Response White Paper stating the goal of reducing
34% and 42% of the “Business as Usual” GHG emissions by 2020 and 2025. Other mitigation initiatives include
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Discussion Document
the development of renewable energy projects through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
Procurement Programme, the Energy Efficiency Strategy and the Solar Water Heater Rebate Programme.
Regarding adaption strategies, the efforts from the national government include the development of the
Long Term Adaptation Scenarios and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (DEA, 2013) to ensure that
food, water, energy security and infrastructure is not negatively impacted by climate change. As for the
implementation of high climate change adaptation projects, the SANBI has selected two areas, one of them
will take place in the Mopani District of Limpopo.
In terms of Provincial response, identification of the needs and intentions of shifting towards a green, low
carbon economy were stated in the Limpopo Employment, Growth and Development Plan 2009-2014. The
first official step is given in 2011 with the Limpopo Green Economy Plan and Climate Change Response; this
document highlights the advantages that the Province has for implementing a green economy, and defines
short, medium and long terms interventions in ten key focus areas. The goals are around job generation,
improvement of environmental quality, and creating conditions for green growth and different production
patterns.
In 2013, the Climate Change Response Tool for Municipalities in Limpopo exposed the vulnerability of each
of the municipalities and identified critical issues related to climate change for each one of them and
pointed a responsible person for action. Currently, the Province is completing the Provincial Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Project which started on January 2015. This project
aims to assess the sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation capacity that the different systems in the
province have to face climate change and its potential impacts. Conclusions of this project are expected in
middle 2016; however preliminary results have been included in this chapter when possible.
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
Limpopo is perhaps the most vulnerable province to climate change in South Africa. Besides expecting a
high increase in temperatures, strong variations in rainfall patterns and more frequency of extreme events,
the province is also very susceptible as it already faces multiple pressures from poverty, inadequate housing
and poor access to services, to name a few.
Observed data indicates increases in temperatures and variations in rainfall across the province, and it
could be said that Limpopo is already meeting the effects from climate change. The consequences of
experienced extreme events between 2014 and 2015 are exposing the lack of preparation of the province
to handle climate variations. Notable efforts have been done by the Province in the development of a
framework and strategies to address mitigation and adaptation; however the lack of appropriated changes
in governance limits improved resilience. It is expected that the biggest challenge that mitigation and
adaptation plans would face will be the integration and effective implementation at local municipality level.
Additionally to keeping the record of changes in rainfall, temperature, evaporation, etc., a climate change
indicator for the province should be able to display the efficiency of the efforts for mitigation and
adaptation. Therefore a quantification of carbon footprint and a vulnerability assessment is recommended
to be included in further reviews of the state of the environment. A rough estimation of GHG emissions
presents Power generation as the biggest source of emissions in the province. Agriculture, rural
settlements, aquatic ecosystems and water supply are the most vulnerable sectors to climate change;
public health and disaster management are also threatened at medium term. A summary of the findings for
the selected indicators for climate change assessment is presented in Table 7 below.
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Discussion Document
Table 7: Summary of the outlook for climate change based on indicators considered
Indicators
Considered
Rain
Temperature
Evaporation
Disturbance regimes
Carbon footprint
Quantification
Overall decrease in rainfall across all climatic zones
of the province
Increase in annual max/min average temperature
High potential evapotranspiration across the
province: >3 mm/day
 Flood/Drought: Not available reports on
number of events per year. Differences in
geographical extension, duration, severity,
etc. make of these elements difficult of
being “quantified” with a comparative
purpose.
 Fire: Variable
Estimated CO2eq: 30,470,130 tpa
Trend
Variable/declining
Increasing
Increasing
Not enough
information to draw a
trend
Not enough
information to draw a
trend
16
Discussion Document
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