Option
Analysis
Component
Input
Output
Emissions modeling
Scenario-specific
emission rates
Option 2: RIA-level Assessment of ambient
PM2.5, O3, NO2, SO2 impacts
Option 3: Option 2 extended to cover
ambient HAPs and Lead impacts
Description/ Model
Description/ Model
Description/ Model
1.One model year of choice1
2. Two scenarios (baseline and alternative).
1.One model year of choice2
2. Two scenarios (baseline and alternative).
1. Wood Burning Tool
2. For EGUs, publicly available emissions rate
estimates (e.g., EPA’s National Emissions
Inventory) will be used.
1. Wood Burning Tool
2. For EGUs, publicly available emissions rate
estimates (e.g., EPA’s National Emissions
Inventory) will be used.
Resolution of output: County, Annual
Resolution of output: County, Annual
1. SMOKE (Pre-processing model to convert
annual emissions into monthly gridded
emissions for CMAQ.)
1. SMOKE (Pre-processing model to convert
annual emissions into monthly gridded
emissions for CMAQ.)
2. CMAQ (Full Model Air Shed Movement
All Pollutants, converting emissions of :
SOx, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, HAPS into
ambient concentrations of air pollutants)
2. CMAQ (Full Model Air Shed Movement
All Pollutants, converting emissions of :
SOx, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, HAPS into
ambient concentrations of air pollutants)
1.One model year (2017)
2. Two scenarios (baseline and alternative).
Costing Assumptions
Scenario-specific
levels of polluting
activity (e.g., wood
burning, electric
power use from
particular EGUs in
particular counties)
Option 1: Screening-Level Assessment of
ambient PM2.5 impacts
Scenario-specific
emissions of air
pollutants (SOx,
VOC, PM2.5,
PM10, NOx,
HAPS) from
sources of
interest (e.g.,
woodstoves,
power plants)
1. Wood Burning Tool
2. For EGUs, publicly available emissions rate
estimates (e.g., EPA’s National Emissions
Inventory) will be used.
Resolution of output: County, Annual
Scenario-specific
emissions of air
pollutants from
affected sources (e.g.,
woodstoves, power
plants)
Dispersion
modeling
Meteorology data
Emissions of SOx, VOC,
PM2.5, PM10, NOx,
HAPS from all other
sources for the
modeling year (area,
point, EGU, mobile,
fire, and biogenetic
sources.)
1
2
Ambient air
pollution levels
for each
pollutant listed
for the Option.
COBRA.
Resolution of output: County, Annual
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, hourly
Limited to the years for which EPA’s emissions baselines are available (http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/emch/)
Limited to the years for which EPA’s emissions baselines are available (http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/emch/)
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, hourly
BenMAP for input manipulation and
population projections
Changes in ambient air
pollution levels
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, Annual
Health Effects
Assessment
Health impact
functions
Changes in
health outcomes
for each
pollutant listed
for the Option.
COBRA. The model embeds a standard suite of
functions and data used by EPA for PM2.5
benefits assessments.
Health Effects
Valuation
Monetized
benefits for each
pollutant listed
for the Option.
COBRA. The model embeds a standard suite of
functions and data used by EPA for PM2.5
benefits assessments.
Impacts on Criteria
Non-Attainment
Counties (Annual
standard)3
Impacts on Criteria
Non-Attainment
Counties (Hourly
standard)5
3
County-level annual
ambient
concentrations
Non-Attainment
Record of Decision for
each county for the
hourly standard
Projected change
in attainment
status if
alternative
scenario is
implemented (no
change is
assumed for
baseline
scenario)
Projected change
in attainment
status if
alternative
scenario is
implemented (no
Standard EPA configurations exist
Extensive research of public health literature
to develop health impact functions.
BenMAP database
Additional research may be needed
BenMAP for input manipulations and income
growth adjustment factors
BenMAP for input manipulations and income
growth adjustment factors. Possibly,
additional software development.
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, Annual
Resolution of output: County, Annual
Unit values
Non-Attainment
Record of Decision for
each county for the
daily standard
Spreadsheet-based comparisons, assuming that
predicted annual average PM2.5 concentrations
will characterize measurements at the FRM
monitor.
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, Annual
Standard EPA configurations exist
Extensive research of economics literature
to develop unit values.
MATS4 software for PM2.5. Methods will
need to be developed and programmed for
NO2.
Will be carried out only for Option 2
pollutants.
MATS software for PM2.5 and O3. Methods
will need to be developed and programmed
for NO2, SO2, CO, PM10.
Will be carried out only for Option 2
pollutants and Lead.6 Methods will need to
be developed and programmed for Lead.
Only relevant for NO2 and PM2.5: http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html
Modeled Attainment Test Software: http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance/guide/MATS-2-3-1_manual.pdf
5
Only relevant for NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10, CO, O3: http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html
6
Lead standard is rolling 3-month average: http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html
4
Resolution of output: CMAQ grid, Annual
Resolution of output: County, Annual
Endpoint incidence
rates
Changes in health
outcomes
BenMAP for input manipulation and
population projections. Possibly, additional
software development.
County-level hourly
ambient
concentrations
change is
assumed for
baseline
scenario)
Completion Time
3 calendar months from project initiation
8 calendar months from project initiation
NA, but likely much longer compared to
Option 2
Cost
$20,000-$40,000
$60,000-$200,000
NA, but likely much higher compared to
Option 2
CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality model
http://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/december2011/cmaq.htm
Wood Burning Tool
http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei17/session2/huntley_pres.pdf
Criteria Pollutants
NOx, SOx, Particulates, CO, O3, Lead
Air Toxics
HAPS
187 pollutants including Mercury, same as HAPs
Hazardous Air Pollutants, same as Air Toxics
COBRA http://www.epa.gov/statelocalclimate/resources/cobra.html
CMAQ does not model for all 188 HAPS. Only the ones below.
Gas Phase Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)
P-Xylene
2,4-Toluene Diisocyanate
Ethylene Oxide
Hexamethylene 1,6-Diisocyanate
Benzene
Hydrazine
Chloroform
Maleic Anhydride
1,1,2,2-Tetrachloride Ethane
M-Xylene
1,2-Dibromomethane
Naphthalene
Acetaldehyde Emissions Tracer
O-Xylene
Propylene Dichloride
Quinoline
Acrolein Emissions Tracer
Toluene
1,3-Dichloride Propene
Total Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde Emissions Tracer
Total Acrolein
Perchloroethylene
Total Formaldehyde
1, 3-Butadiene
Trichloroethylene
Methylene Chloride
Triethylamine
Acrylonitrile
Vinyl Chloride
1,2-Dichloromethane
Elemental Mercury
Carbon Tetrachloride
Oxidized Mercury Compounds
1,4-Dichlorobenzene
Table 1. Gas-Phase Hazardous Air Pollutants represented in the current CMAQ Multi-pollutant model.
Aerosol Phase Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)
Beryllium Compounds
Mercury Compounds
Nickel Compounds
Cadmium Compounds
Chromium (III) Compounds
Diesel Emissions Tracer
Chromium (VI) Compounds
Lead Compounds
Manganese Compounds