Foundations to Algebra
Theoretical vs Experimental Probability
Name
Date ______________________
1) Gather information about your bag of jolly ranchers.
Total Cherry:
Total Apple:
Total Grape:
Total Blue Raspberry:
Total Watermelon:
Total Jolly Ranchers:
2) If one of your group members was to reach into the bag to pull out one
random jolly rancher, what are the theoretical probabilities of the following?
Fraction:
Decimal:
Percentage:
P(Cherry) =
P(Grape) =
P(Watermelon) =
P(Apple) =
P(Blue Raspberry) =
SUM:
3) Theoretically, which flavor of jolly rancher is most likely to be chosen if just one
jolly rancher is picked out of the bag at random? What jolly rancher flavor
would be picked the most if you did it twenty-five times in a row (replacing it
back in the bag after each)? Which flavor would be picked the fewest number
of times in twenty-five trials? Justify your reasoning in a few sentences.
4) Place all of the jolly ranchers back into the bag.
5) Have one group member choose a jolly rancher at random out of the bag
(without looking). Have the designated recorder for the group write down
what flavor of jolly rancher has been selected on the table below. Then return
the jolly rancher that was chosen back into the bag.
Next, have a different group member choose a jolly rancher at random out of
the bag. Record the result of this second trial and then continue until your
group has completed 25 total trials.
Use the table below to record the results of each trial:
Cherry
Grape
Apple
Blue Raspberry
Watermelon
6) Use the results of your experiment/trials to determine the experimental
probabilities of how likely each event would occur in the future.
Fraction:
Decimal:
Percentage:
P(Cherry) =
P(Grape) =
P(Watermelon) =
P(Apple) =
P(Blue Raspberry) =
SUM:
7) Compare the probabilities that resulted from your experiment to the theoretical
probabilities you found in step #2. Did the theoretical probabilities hold true in
the experiment? In what ways were the results the same or different? Give
two or three sentences describing the similarities and differences between the
theoretical probabilities and the experimental probabilities.