gbc20220-sup-0002-anthropogenic

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Supporting Information for
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Six centuries of changing oceanic mercury
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Yanxu Zhang, Lyatt Jaeglé, LuAnne Thompson, David Streets
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1 Model comparison to modern atmospheric mercury observations
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We compare our simulation of present-day (2008) atmospheric Hg to observations
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collected in the atmospheric marine boundary layer and at terrestrial sites, as summarized
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in previous GEOS-Chem model studies [Selin et al., 2007; Holms et al., 2010; Soerensen
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et al., 2010; Soerensen et al., 2012]. These ground-based observations were collected
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between 2004 and 2008 at 42 ground-sites. Observations in the marine boundary layer are
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from 4 cruises over the same period.
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Figure S1 (top panel) shows the modeled spatial distribution of surface
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atmospheric total gaseous mercury (TGM = Hg0+HgII) concentrations, while Figure S2
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shows the latitudinal distribution of TGM concentrations. Our present-day simulation
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predicts a global mean atmospheric TGM concentration of 1.2 ng/m3. The present-day
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distribution of TGM shows large spatial variability, with concentrations ranging from 0.5
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to 3.5 ng/m3. The highest concentrations are modeled over regions with strong
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anthropogenic emissions including East Asia, Western Europe, and North America
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(Figure S1 top panel). The mean observed concentrations of TGM are 2.0±0.88 ng/m3,
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compared to 1.4±0.50 ng/m3 in the model sampled at the location of observations. The
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spatial distribution of TGM is similar in both model and observations, with higher
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concentrations near strong anthropogenic regions. The spatial correlation coefficients
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between model and observation is high (r2 = 0.90). For terrestrial sites, the modeled TGM
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concentrations (1.5±0.5 ng/m3) are 25% lower than observations (1.9±1.0 ng/m3). The
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model also under-predicts observed TGM concentrations over the North Atlantic (obs.:
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1.9±0.16 ng/m3; mod.: 1.3±0.02 ng/m3) and North Pacific Oceans (obs.: 2.5±0.4 ng/m3;
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mod.: 1.3±0.07 ng/m3).
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Anthropogenic emissions lead to a small interhemispheric gradient, with 1.2-1.5
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ng/m3 in the northern hemisphere and 0.9-1.0 ng/m3 in the southern hemisphere (Figure
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S2 top panel). The modeled latitudinal gradient falls at the low edge of the envelope of
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observations.
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2 Model comparison to concentrations of Hg in the surface ocean
Figure S1 (bottom panel) shows the modeled present-day total aqueous Hg
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concentrations in the surface ocean. The latitudinal distribution of zonal average
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concentrations is shown in Figure S2 (bottom panel). The modeled global mean total Hg
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concentration over the surface ocean is 0.72 pM, with no significant latitudinal and inter-
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hemispheric gradients. Overall, the large-scale horizontal spatial pattern of surface ocean
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Hg concentrations has not changed much at present-day compared with that for natural
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conditions, indicating similar controlling factors (e.g. ocean circulation and particle
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sinking flux) [Zhang et al., 2014].
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We compare our model results of surface ocean Hg concentrations to observations
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spanning the last two decades, as summarized by Soerensen et al. [2010]. Observations
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display a large variability, with values ranging from less than 0.1 pM to more than 7 pM
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(Figure S1 bottom panel). Observed median total Hg concentrations are 1.0 pM. The
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model sampled at the same locations as the observations displays median values that are
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33% lower (0.67 pM). The modeled concentrations fall within the center of envelope for
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the observations with most density data points (Figure S2 bottom panel), indicating a
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reasonable agreement between them. For the North Atlantic Ocean (obs: 1.0±0.48 pM;
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mod: 0.68±0.12 pM), North Pacific Ocean (obs: 0.88±0.31 pM; mod.: 0.70±0.11 pM) and
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Southern Ocean (obs: 1.0±0.44 pM; mod: 0.69±0.12 pM), we find that the model
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captures observed surface ocean total Hg concentrations reasonably well.
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Most of the measurements near coastal and shelf regions are significantly higher
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(> 2 pM) than the corresponding modeled values (~0.5 pM), such as the measurements
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over the Hudson Bay region and the coastal Canadian Arctic Ocean Archipelago. This
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could be due to an underestimate of the riverine input Hg flux, especially because we
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only considered the erosion of Hg from background soils in our model and do not take
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into account the historical influence of wastewater discharges from commercial sources
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[Soerensen et al., 2010; Streets et al., 2011; Horowitz et al., 2014] or the impact of
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snowpack melt water [Fisher et al., 2012]. Furthermore, the global model does not have
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adequate resolution to capture advection and mixing of Hg near the coasts.
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Figure S1. Comparison of model results with present-day observations. Top panel:
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Modeled present-day surface concentrations of atmospheric total gaseous mercury (TGM,
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in ng/m3). Observed concentrations (2004-2008) are shown as color-coded circles
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(cruises) and diamonds (ground-based sites). Bottom: Total Hg concentrations (in pM) in
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the surface ocean. Observed concentrations (1984-2010) are shown as color-coded
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circles.
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Figure S2. Zonal mean of Hg concentrations in the atmosphere and surface ocean.
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Zonal average of top) near-surface atmospheric TGM concentrations and bottom) total
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Hg concentrations at ocean surface. Observations are shown as open circles. The solid
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lines correspond to the present-day (orange) and pre-anthropogenic (blue) simulations.
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3 Uncertainty Analysis
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The uncertainty associated with our estimate of anthropogenic Hg in the ocean is
primarily from the historical emission of Hg and our parameterization of the
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biogeochemistry of Hg in the ocean. With and without reducing the Hg mining emissions
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by a factor of 3 result in the total anthropogenic Hg emissions during 1450-2008 as 950
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and 1750 Mmol, respectively. Adopting the original inventory causes a 50% increase in
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the anthropogenic Hg in the present-day ocean. This could be even higher if we were to
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consider the release of commercial Hg to the environment [Horowitz et al., 2014]. As a
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lower end, reducing the historical Hg emissions in Au/Ag mining to zero results in the
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total anthropogenic Hg emission as 550 Mmol, which would cause a 20-30% decrease in
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the anthropogenic Hg load in the present-day ocean. The redox chemistry between Hg0
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and HgII and the partitioning coefficient (Kd) of dissolved HgII onto the particulate phase
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also play important roles, because they affect the fraction of total Hg as HgII and the
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strength of its particle scavenging. Observed fractions of HgII range from 50%-80% in the
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subsurface waters [Lamborg et al., 2014], leading to an uncertainty range of 50%.
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Although the Kd value could vary for an order of magnitude based on available
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observations [Soerensen et al., 2010], sensitivity runs suggest the plausible range for this
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parameter is within a factor of 2 of our current used value, which leads to an additional
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40% variation in the amount of anthropogenic Hg in the ocean. Another source of
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uncertainty comes from the model’s representation of the biological pump itself,
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especially the remineralization depth of sinking organic particles. Choosing different
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remineralization depths results in a variation of 30% for the amount of anthropogenic Hg
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in the ocean. Overall, these factors cause an uncertainty range of 190 – 530 Mmol.
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Additional information for observed lake sediment profiles
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Table S1. Detailed information for the source of lake sediment observations shown
in Figure 1
Category
Remote
Eastern
U.S.
East Asia
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a
Region
Greenland
Chile
West Greenland
California-Nevada, U.S.
Svalbard
Upper Midwest, U.S.
Alaska
Arctic Ny-Ålesund
Brazil
New Zealand
Western U.S.
High-latitude Canada
Santa Barbara Basin
Western U.S.
Washington, U.S.
Uganda
Upper Midwest, U.S.
Vermont and New Hampshire, U.S.
Nova Scotia
Adirondack Lake, New York, U.S.
Maine, U.S.
Midcontinental North America
Qinghai Lake, Tibetan Plateau
Taihu Lake, China
Tibetan Plateau
na
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Number of lake sediment cores used for each location
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