Suggestions for Exponential Development of Indian Railways 1 Som Karamchetty 2 Outline: Objective of this paper Background Railways for a Developed India Business Plan for Railways Role of Technology Benefits Recommendations Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Objective of this paper The author wrote this white paper because he believed that Indian Railways should be proactive in developing a long term strategic business plan. The span of such a plan should cover the period until India becomes a developed country. With such an ideal, Indian Railways actually works with the national economic development plan rather than reacting to the transportation needs under pressure. This paper suggests some technical examples where significant accomplishments can be made by the Railways. Being a paper with suggestions, this paper does not describe detailed tasks and designs. Background Beginning on 16th April, 1853 the rail network in India has progressed in leaps and bounds. Being the premier transport organization of the country and the largest rail network in Asia, and the world’s second largest under one management, Indian Railways (IR) occupies an important place in India. It is the vital link from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, and Mumbai to Guwahati. It spans 63,000 route kilometers with 108,700 track kilometers connecting 6,853 stations along the way. It ferries 13 million passengers every day (3,867 million in 2007-08 financial year), carried 436 million tonnes of freight in 2007-08 financial year and earned Rupees 38,455 crores. i I refrain from giving more detailed historical information as such data and information are available in references. ii Noteworthy differences exist between the role and status of railway networks in India and the US. With well-developed road and air networks, and shipping lines, railways share a minor role in the US. Various rail networks are owned by private companies, which compete for passenger traffic and freight traffic with other modes of transport. With a high ownership of private vehicles, people prefer to travel in their own vehicles rather than taking to the trains. They fly by air for long distance travel as they value their time. Railways in India play an important role in the transportation of people and goods during peacetime, wartime, and recoveries from disasters. Lacking in major highways, robust air 1 This document is a rewrite of an earlier draft prepared during 2006-2008. Engineer, Manager, Business Counselor living in Potomac, MD, USA, som@karamchetty.net, www.karamchetty.net 2 1 network, and waterways, railways play a significant role in the transportation sector in India. The Indian rail network is fully owned and operated by the Central government. The combination of the monopoly and operation by government officials, Indian Railways tends to be more bureaucratic, non-responsive to customers, and less innovative. Such attitudes and attributes make the system reactive than proactive, unable to keep pace with a fast developing global economy and even the national economy. Hence, it is critical for the county’s political leaders to impress upon the managers of Railways that they are the causers of nation’s progress and motivate them to put on the hard hats of development. Railways for a Developed India Description of a Developed India People usually talk of what kind of railways a developed India should have. But, it is more important to realize that a developed railway system, a key part of the transportation infrastructure, is an essential prerequisite to India attaining a developed status. The Indian economy had crossed the trillion dollar mark a couple of years ago and the country is expected to join the ranks of developed nations in three to five decades. Indian leaders have to ask the key question, ‘What shape should the Indian Railways take during and after the nation’s transition from a developing country to a developed country?’ While the answers will emerge from an analysis of the nation’s evolving transportation infrastructure, it is important to do a strategic analysis of the railways in itself. Typically, various transportation subsectors compete as well as collaborate among themselves so that the progress in every subsector contributes to a faster national development. In the transportation of liquids, gases, and bulk materials, other networks, such as pipelines, also compete with railways. With increasing consciousness towards eco-living, emphasis is being placed on smart cities and energy efficient infrastructure design, which will have enormous implications for the future architecture and design of railways and its components. Appendix A shows charts describing a Developed India to serve as a guide to Indian Railways for its readiness to be a principal partner in that development. Indian Railways should develop a strategic plan and a business plan that is in phase with the Indian economic development plan. Business Plan for Railways: 3 Mission A business plan for an organization starts with mission and vision statements. In the case of the Indian Railways, it is an organization with a hybrid mission. It is a business in that it has to make a profit in order to sustain and continue to flourish forever as the country will need rail transportation for the imaginable future. It is a transportation mode vital to national security as it is the best mode to move troops and security forces to all border areas and interior trouble spots. It is a charity as it offers concessional fares to citizens and organizations who cannot afford to pay standard fares. It is a showpiece for the pride of the nation as it projects a welcome image to foreign tourists and connects them with the nation’s arts, cultures, and traditions. Hence, Indian Railways will have strategic objectives to fulfill all the above items in its mission. A business plan is usually developed with objectives and goals for a selected period – 3 It is not the intention here to present a business plan in the conventional format and in detail. 2 usually 3 to 5 years. But, a nationally vital organization like the Railways, the business plan has to be developed on strategic lines following Ackoff’s strategic plan method. iii In that sense, it becomes part of a national plan and will be in sync with the nation’s economic development plan being responsive to the needs of the GDP growth and responding to the demands of the developed country. Accordingly, a few strategic objectives are identified and discussed below. Strategic objectives and measures 1. Fulfilling the transportation needs of the fast developing economy of the nation in every sector and every geographical area: Traditionally, managers considered connecting city A with city B as the objective. Such an objective resulted in only a handful of rail lines whistling by vast regions in between. Indian Railways should set itself the following objectives. The maximum distance a citizen has to travel to access a train will be x1 kilometers by the year y1. The maximum time a citizen has to wait for a train will be t1 minutes by the year y2. The first objective is discussed in a little more detail in Appendix B. Similar measures may be developed for the progress of freight shipments. When citizens see such an objective, they can hope that there will come a time when they will get a better, easier, and faster access to trains and a speedier journey to their chosen destinations. Likewise, businesses and organizations can tune their plans to the availability, agility, and speed of the transportation infrastructure. Incidentally, these objectives have quantitative metrics so that progress can be assessed quantitatively. Markets are the key drivers of a business plan. But, traditionally government run organizations (Indian Railways being one such organization) tended to be influenced unduly by individual and political powers as opposed to markets. Such influences tend to distort the economics and drag the organizations into losses. On the other hand, when plans are synchronized with current and emerging markets, revenue and profits will be attractive and sustaining. Thus, growth and allocation of new rail lines and capacities should be coordinated with economic (as well as other) developments in the mission. Contemporary ideas relative to growth corridors and rapid freight lines are broadly in sync with these objectives but the trains have to stop and deal with cargo at the intermediate points rather than treat them as painted stations. Technical ideas for frequent stops as well as faster freight train are discussed in the section on sub-containers in this white paper. 2. Minimization of Capital and Operating costs: Once the long term growth objective is laid out, requirements for capital equipment (including land, technology, and management) and means for operation and maintenance (including labor) can be forecast and projected. Such a method would allow for long term acquisition decisions. For example, instead of ad hoc buying of equipment, manufacturers can be encouraged and attracted to set up large production bases, which would be mutually beneficial. Likewise, technical and management workforce can be predicted, trained in advanced skills needed by an emerging system. 3. Energy: Realizing that the type and amount of energy are keys to a transportation system, planned growth would allow the energy infrastructure to meet the Railways’ needs in time. It also allows for increased operational methods so that minimal energy consumption is achieved through efficiency improvements. 3 4. Real Estate and Right of Way: Rail transportation system takes significant amount of land thus adding to the cost of the system. Traditionally, Indian Railways was able to garner vast stretches of land it needed or wanted. Such a scenario is not possible in a fast growing India where land is under severe demand by various sectors simultaneously. Together with the need for the amount of land, right of way is also a significant issue. It is important to note that a train cannot negotiate steep gradients because of its mass and moment of inertia. Historically, Railways overcame this disadvantage by claiming a right of way and forcing cross traffic to come to a full stop and keep the line clear for a train to pass. As the frequency of trains increases it would force the Railways to resort to cooperative and collaborative uses of land and the right of way. A potential solution is suggested in the section on Role of Technology. 5. Safety & Security: When people undertake a journey, and when organizations send shipments, they expect the people and goods reach their destinations on time, and in a safe and secure manner. Indian Railways have to set metrics for these objectives, analyze the causes for deviations, and institute measures to accomplish a record safe and secure transportation system. 6. Experience: When people and organizations interact with a system, such as Railways, they are looking for a pleasant experience and not a vexing endurance test. The concept of experience includes how a traveler is treated at various points of his journey; how comfortable the journey is; what facilities (food, water, sanitation) are available during the journey; and how timely, relevant, and accurate information is available to him during all phases of a journey. Shippers would like their goods transported on time in a safe and secure manner at reasonable costs. An analysis of what constitutes experience is discussed briefly in the section on Role of Technology and in Appendix C. 7. Cost: In a successful enterprise, a business makes handsome profits while customers enjoy affordable prices. This is a win-win situation. Such a situation is possible by reducing the costs for the enterprise. The capacity factors, load factors, productivity of workforce, elimination of redundant steps, and institution of relevant management initiatives would contribute to mutually advantageous outcomes. While some people have no choice when they like to travel, yet others may have such flexibility. Indian Railways may offer them the opportunity with incentives to travel during lean periods thus improving the load factor. A similar scenario applies to freight also. For special occasions, Indian Railways may offer crowdsourced special trains. The method is described in the section on Role of Technology. 8. Revenue and profits: As a business, Indian Railways should expect to increase its revenue and profits over time. This would imply improvements in market, market share, reductions in costs associated with acquisition, installation, energy, and operating, and maintenance costs. 9. Employees: Every organization depends on its employees to accomplish its mission. It is critically so with Indian Railways. It is important to inculcate a strong sense for achieving the mission in the employees. When they understand how their individual performance contributes to the mission, employees perform appropriately. The system safety, security, customer experience, and the bottom line will improve when employees are trained, informed, and treated well. 10. Intermodal collaboration: 4 It should be very simple for citizens to use different modes of transportation during their journey since, usually, no single mode can take them all the way. For example, train stations, bus stations, airport terminals, and seaports should be collocated so that people merely walk from one terminal to the other without using other minor transportation modes (such as rickshas and taxis). The systems should handle luggage and baggage from source to destination so that travelers need not haggle with porters at intermediate and transshipment points. 11. Optimal use of Resources Indian Railways has significant land resources where it plies now and will need additional land resources as it grows in newer geographies. Hence, the Railway leadership has to develop new methods and technologies to use land in a collaborative manner with local communities through which the rail lines pass. Some possible technical solutions are discussed in the section on the Role of Technology. 12. Serving the Rural Communities and Farmers The record of the Indian Railways with respect to rural communities is abysmal. Since planning of rail lines has always focused on connecting urban centers, or mine heads to industrial plants or ports, the intermediate points (villages and towns) are ignored. While the urban travelers sleep on comfortable berths, rural folks trying to enter the trains find closed doors or forced to travel in crowded general compartments. The few passenger trains crawl slowly while yielding the way to the faster intercity trains. Farmers need fast and protected transportation of their produce to the markets. By incorporating several technical features, Indian Railways can serve the rural communities better. This aspect may be considered as its social responsibility to the rural communities as well as to prevent unnecessary migration of rural people to towns and cities. The design of small sized containers (sub-containers) is suggested in the section Role of Technology. A business plan also contains a financial plan or a resource plan. Plan goals and deliverables are selected or milestones are set based on resource availability from various sources. I refrained from discussing those details here at this time. Role of Technology: In a plan with strategic objectives for Indian Railways, technology plays a critical role. It can be a key enabler in accomplishing the objectives set in the plan. As new technologies emerge, it may be possible to accomplish objectives faster. Being a dynamic document, a business plan gets revised periodically. The application of certain exemplary technologies to accomplish selected objectives is described in this section. Technology Example 1 Redesign of Road Crossings: Historically, trains enjoyed the right of way and cross road traffic had to stop at level crossings. Manned and unmanned level crossings contribute to frequent accidents. Claiming historical rights and dominance, Indian railways imposes burdens on local communities to build road over bridges or underpasses or the cross road traffic is made to wait at the level crossings. Road traffic is subjected to inordinate interruptions at level crossings. Such a situation was a small inconvenience when only a few trains passed an intersection in a day. (See Figures 1 to 4) 5 Figure 1: Rail tracks divide communities. But as the rail traffic increases and hundreds of trains pass a village or a town, they impede the life in those communities. Impatient drivers, bikers, and pedestrians take risks to cross the rail lines in a hurry and cause serious accidents. Figure 2: Frequent and long trains become serious impediments to road traffic at level crossings. 6 Figure 3: Frequency of trains benefits train passengers but obstructs road traffic at level crossings. Figure 4: Road over bridges eliminate the obstruction caused by frequent and lengthy trains at level crossings. In downtowns of major cities in the Western nations, such a situation was avoided by moving the rail lines underground. But, such a solution is expensive to retrofit in India. But, an alternative is to build crossings that also house other facilities. Figure 5 shows a sketch of such an arrangement. By building multistory buildings at every road crossing and rail stations on the PPP model, the facilities could be used for passenger platforms, rest facilities, hotels, restaurants, warehouses, and businesses, which are sorely needed in road transportation now. Such multistory buildings at rail stations, station stops, and prior level crossings could span over the tracks and connect both sides of the track so that the local community is not dissected. Figure 5: Locating a multistory building at cross roads makes for a flyover for road traffic. 7 Land Holdings: Indian Railways have significant land holdings at rail stations. In big cities like Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai, and scores of other cities, train stations, tracks also occupy highly expensive real estate. In corresponding urban situations in the US (e.g. New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia) the rail tracks were laid underground. India cannot follow the Western practice of laying the tracks underground at these locations now. But, it can explore the construction of multistory buildings over the station complex and arching over the tracks on a PPP basis. For example, at the Howrah rail station there are 15 or so platforms and tracks. The large number of tracks goes on for about five or ten miles before they progressively narrow down to about four tracks. That is about 50 million square feet of plinth area. By erecting five-story buildings, the country can gain 250 million square feet of prime residential or office space in a Tier 1 city like Kolkata. In essence, the tracks go underground by erecting multistory buildings on top. In Tier 2 cities and smaller towns, Railways can use some of the floor area for the station and rest facilities and lease the rest of the built-up space to local private offices, shops, hotels, restaurants. Traditionally, rail stations are built away from towns and villages with living facilities (mostly detached homes) built next to the rail stations for the Railway staffs and workers. Gradually, other hamlets have cropped up around the stations. It is advantageous for the Railways to build multi-story housing and building complexes surrounding the stations so that satellite townships develop there thus utilizing the land optimally. In Tier 1 cities, even conference centers and luxury hotels can be built at stations (just as they do at airports in the West). This arrangement releases much needed real estate for commercial uses and Railways makes good income. This arrangement is applicable even in small towns and by building ramps as described earlier (Figure 5). Such construction reintegrates otherwise bisected local neighborhoods. Technology Example 2. Isolating Tracks for Bullet Trains: Currently, the rail track is not isolated from access by animals and vagrants. When the planned bullet trains whiz past, there will be neither time for animals to move off the tracks nor to warn intruding people. Such a situation will be ripe for serious accidents and agitations. Conventional practice would suggest the erection of chain link fences on both sides of the track once again dividing communities. A friendlier, safe, and economic method can be developed. By building concrete block protection walls on both sides of the track, Railways might invite local businesses, farmers, and citizens to build lean-to sheds from those walls for their specific uses on a leasehold basis. Such structures can be used to store farm produce, to locate animals, to site shops, and so on. 4 Indian Railways may go even one more step and place solar PV panels on the roofs of such lean to sheds and share the resulting energy with the local communities. Figure 6 shows a typical arrangement. With such an arrangement, a 1,000 mile track between Chennai and Howrah can provide roof area of about 60 million square feet for solar PV panels and 300,000 4 Prudence requires that Indian Railways caution the leaseholders that high speed trains will generate noise and there is a small probability of accommodation needed in case of accidents. 8 sheds of 200 square feet each for the local farmers. With a suitable roof design, rain water can be harvested from the roofs. Such an arrangement would be the CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) of Railways. At appropriate intervals, bridges over the rails should be built so that local traffic can move without potential intrusions on to the tracks. By manufacturing such walls at factories, and by working with MGNREGA program managers, such walls would benefit the Railways as well as the rural communities. Figure 6: Walls on both sides of the tracks for Bullet Trains supporting Lean-to sheds with solar panels on the roofs. Technology example 3 Experience: In general, the meals and refreshments served by Indian Railways catering service are neither of great taste nor of good quality. The demand for refreshments and meals at major stations is very high. Like the airlines, the Indian Railways may include the cost of meals and/or refreshments in the price of the ticket, and serve good quality meals. Indian Railways could 9 make arrangements with social welfare and charitable groups such as, Naandi 5 and Akshaya Patra 6 to prepare meals at rural locations with modern and hygienic equipment and deliver them to the railway caters for sale at stations. This method would remove the unorganized and substandard suppliers at many stations thus improving hygiene and quality. Experience with food on trains is also covered under Morphological analysis in Appendix C. Technology example 4 Crowdsourcing 7 the need for special trains and special services: Social and religious groups usually apply and get special bogies or trains especially for that group to take tours of their choice. Indian Railways may set up a crowdsourcing service. In this arrangement, people may choose to form ad hoc groups with a request for a special train for a certain occasion of their choice. Usually, festivals, sports events, certain cultural shows might attract people to ask for a special train. With an initiator or sponsor and several otherwise unconnected people might express their interest and join the need for a special service. Indian Railways may accommodate them with a set charge for the journey. This method would be advantageous as the groups form autonomously and railways will supply the requested service and also make good revenue. Technology example 5 Mass Production of road over bridges or underpasses Indian Railways should plan to install road over bridges or underpasses one every 200 yards of the track in cities, one every 500 yards in towns, and one in every two miles in rural areas. That will mean several hundred thousand bridges and the structures become good candidates for factory based manufacture. Indian Railways or their contractors already have experience with such manufacturing techniques. (See Figure 7.) Figure 7: Concrete structures being installed at the Cauvery junction in Bangalore iv Technology example 6 5 http://www.naandi.org/ http://www.akshayapatra.org/ 7 Crowdsourcing is the practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people and especially from the online community rather than from traditional employees or suppliers. Reference: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crowdsourcing 6 10 Sub-containers: Indian Railways can help the rural farmers in a big way by developing sub-containers and using them to transport rural produce. Containerization 8 has helped global trade as well as local trade in the West. In order to take advantage of that concept, India has to develop containers of smaller sizes. Currently, freight trains and passenger trains with freight coaches stop at stations and porters load and unload smaller shipments requiring the train to stop for an inordinately long time at a station. Such delay adds to the travel time, increases idle time of the trains and tracks. With containerization, the train needs to stop only a few minutes to roll the container on or off the train. But, each small station may not have sufficient produce to fill a conventionally large (8 feet by 8 feet by 20 or 40 feet) container (Figure 8). By developing and adapting smaller containers (Figures 9 to 15), Indian Railways can have their freight trains stop at rail stations at small towns and load or unload sub-containers in minutes. Local farmers could transport such sub-containers using local utility vehicles or small trucks. By working with local governments, retailers, and agricultural departments, Indian Railways can bring about a revolution in connecting farmers to urban consumers. Such a scenario has enormous social implications and fulfills some of the objectives set for Railways. Since time, space, inventory, rolling stocks, and freight are money, Railways will benefit from the adoption of sub-containers. Figure 8: Figure showing a schematic of a standard container. 8 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_container 11 Figure 9: Two sub-containers fit into or in pace of a standard container or on a flatbed. Figure 10: A Half-size sub-container can be offloaded by a truck to or from a freight loading platform at a train station. 12 Figure 11: A One-Third-size sub-container can be offloaded by a truck to or from a freight loading platform at a train station, permitting smaller loads. Figure 12: A Quarter-size sub-container accommodates even smaller loads. Figure 13: Farmers and rural merchants can load containers with local produce including milk by adding cooling facilities. 13 Figure 14: Small utility vehicles can be used to move the sub-containers to urban consumers and farm supplies to fields. Figure 15: Capsules are provided with eyelets at the bottom to make them easy to roll-on or -off platforms, and floors of containers and truck beds. Straps and quick action anchor bolts fix capsules to floors while in transit. It may be noted that in the US, plant nurseries use capsules (See Figure B3) to load plants into those capsules and transport them in containers and tractor trailers to retail stores, where the plants are sold directly out of the capsules. Such handling protects the plants and creates jobs in rural nurseries. On international airlines, meal trays are packed into capsules, loaded onto planes, and served directly out of the capsules. Lately, such capsules (called pods) are used in assisting 14 families as they move their household goods. Both rural and urban Indians will benefit from the general concept while utilizing sub-containers. Technical Example 7 BioProcessing of Human Waste Generated on Trains With billions of passengers traveling in trains, handling and disposal of human waste is a major problem for Indian Railways. In collaboration with IIT, Kanpur, v Indian Railways started the design of green toilets for passenger trains. The transmission and proper disposal of such waste is still a big problem. It is possible to set up bioprocessing facilities to treat that waste. Indian Railways may offload such waste at locations that are about 300 miles apart and have bioprocessing plants process them into energy and manure. The manure may be used to grow plants which can also be processed into biodiesel. By leasing the equipment and land for these plants, and by buying the biodiesel back from the producers, Indian Railways will be able to convert waste into energy and also create jobs and businesses. A more detailed description is available in a concept paper (proposal) by the author. 9 Benefits: By developing a strategic business plan, suggested in this paper, Indian Railways will be able to work in concert with the national economic development plan. In fact, it will be helping the national plan and national progress and will not become a hindrance to national GDP growth. It will be trendsetter to other sectors of the national economy. It will also be able to stake a claim for a higher share of the transportation infrastructure. By recognizing the advantage of advanced technologies, Indian Railways will be able to acquire and/or develop technologies especially needed for its progress. As suggested in the Morphological analysis (Appendix C), by understanding the variety of needs of its potential passengers and shippers, Railways will be able to train and equip its managers and employees to cater to the needs of the customers of the system. That situation should increase its revenue and decrease its costs thus increasing profits. By a collaborative and cooperative approach to other modes of transport, Indian Railways would be able to lead the national transportation infrastructure for the good of the country. Recommendations: Indian Railways should develop a strategic long term business plan for its growth in sync with national plan. It should expand on the suggestions made in this white paper by conducting a full scale analysis of the methods and emerging technologies, developing concepts, and by scoping projects. Incorporating such projects into the business plan Railways and the nation would benefit in the nation’s path towards a developed country in the next three to five decades. 9 http://www.karamchetty.net/railways.html 15 Appendix A 10 Description of a Developed India to serve as a guide to Indian Railways for its Readiness While it has made enormous progress in the last six decades, Indian Railways needs to make giant strides so that it can play its due role as India becomes a developed country. Indian Railways has to make exponential and exemplary progress and not be satisfied with linear and just good progress. Indian Railways will surely benefit as the Indian economy progresses. But true Rail visionaries will visualize Indian Railways laying the track and supplying the motive power to cause economic progress. Dr. Abdul Kalam, then president of India had advocated the vision of a developed India in 20 to 30 years. vi It is important to analyze the implications of that goal explicitly. Such an analysis may start with the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council’s estimate of India's gross domestic product at $902 billion, (2006-07) as the basis. vii If India grows its GDP by 13.8 times, it brings the country to the US GDP level (2005) of $12.4 trillion. Since Indian population is about three times that of the US, Indian GDP has to grow to $37 trillion (41.4 times its 2006-07 level) so that Indians reach the per capita level of the US (2005). viii At a 10% compounded annual growth rate, it takes nearly forty years to accomplish a growth of 41.4 times, which is indeed stupendous progress. Accompanying the growth of the GDP, there will be a massive shift in the type of goods and services produced as India moves towards its goal of a developed country status through the revolutionary GDP growth. For instance, it is possible that instead of exporting raw material, India may be exporting finished machinery and importing raw material in place of finished goods. Periodic updating of the analysis would address such changes. Since the US is a leader among developed countries, it will be very instructive at this juncture to examine the relative contributions by various sectors to the US GDP using the US 2005 data and project it three times (as India has about thrice the US population) to depict the anticipated GDP of a developed India as shown in Table A1. Transportation and warehousing contributed 2.92 per cent of the US GDP. This should serve as an indicator to the leadership of the Indian Railways where they should be aiming at. A dynamic economy, as opposed to an agrarian economy, is characterized by high mobility of its people and goods. As a leader in the transportation sector in India, Indian Railways have to continue to lead, maintain its leadership, and fulfill its obligation to the Indian economy as it takes giant strides in the next four or five decades. The sectorial distribution of US employment is presented in Table A2. Since its population is about three times as large as that of the US, Indian employment distribution, in its developed state, is likely to be as shown in Table A3. This later table shows that the Transportation and warehousing sector provided 13.1 million or 3.1 per cent of the jobs. Indian Railways employed 1.5 million people in 2002. ix The implication of this information is that the Indian Railways and the other components of the Transportation sector will have to increase their contribution to the Indian GDP to about 1Trillion dollars along with providing jobs to a number of people while increasing their productivity manifold. This is achievable through the application of technology, knowledge and skill-intensive work force, and superior leadership and management. 10 Som Karamchetty conducted this analysis in 2006 and the results in the tables reflect the dollar to rupee conversion rates of that time. An up to date analysis may be conducted for results that should reflect current GDP values and exchange rates. As website owners change their websites over time, some links may not be current. 16 From a reading of the Status Paper of the Indian Railways, it is obvious that Indian Railways wants to be the leader among the various components in the transportation sector because of its energy efficiency and the primacy it already enjoys. Table A4 shows that in the US, the Rail transportation component had a share of 9.4 per cent while the truck transportation component held a 33.1 per cent share of the transportation sector. This fact shows that the Indian Railways have to be aggressively competitive with respect to the other sectors in order to keep their primacy. But, at the same time, it should be realized that a rail track can neither go to every citizen’s front yard nor to every shop’s front porch. Consequently, Indian Railways has to work with the Indian road network to provide the Indian economy with the most modern, efficient, convenient, and integrated transportation network that a developed India deserves and needs. Table A1: Contributions by various sectors to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US economy (2005 data) x and projected data for a Developed India with a 37 Trillion dollar economy. Contribution by Sector US in Percent of A 2005 National Developed GDP India Billions Billions of of US US Dollars Dollars Agriculture, forestry, and fishing: 119 0.96 357 Mining 214 1.73 642 Utilities 239 1.93 717 Construction 594 4.79 1,782 Durable Goods, Manufacturing 868 7.00 2,604 Nondurable goods, manufacturing 628 5.06 1,884 Wholesale trade 733 5.91 2,199 Retail trade 829 6.69 2,487 Transportation and warehousing 362 2.92 1,086 Information 578 4.66 1,734 Finance and Insurance 1,012 8.16 3,036 Real estate, rental, leasing 1,563 12.60 4,689 Professional and technical services 862 6.95 2,586 Management of companies 231 1.86 693 Administrative and waste services 375 3.02 1,125 Educational services 113 0.91 339 Healthcare and social assistance 864 6.97 2,592 Arts, entertainment and recreation 118 0.95 354 Accommodation and food services 338 2.73 1,014 Other services 295 2.38 885 Government 1,475 11.90 4,425 TOTAL GDP 12,400 100 37,200 17 Table A2: Employees (both full time and part time) in various industries in the US (2005). xi Industry Title Thousands Percent All industries 141,218 100.00 1,473 1.04 Mining 564 0.40 Utilities 554 0.39 7,567 5.36 Manufacturing 14,328 10.15 Wholesale trade 5,850 4.14 15,763 11.16 Transportation and warehousing 4,379 3.10 Information 3,079 2.18 Finance and insurance 6,101 4.32 Real estate and rental and leasing 2,207 1.56 Professional and business services 17,384 12.31 2,911 2.06 15,021 10.64 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1,981 1.40 Accommodation and food services 11,027 7.81 Other services, except government 6,901 4.89 24,128 17.09 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Construction Retail trade Educational services Health care and social assistance Government Table A3: Projection of Indian employment by industry in a developed India with a population of over one billion. Industry Title Employment Percent Thousands All industries 423,654 100.00 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 4,419 1.04 Mining 1,692 0.40 Utilities 1,662 0.39 18 Construction 22,701 5.36 Manufacturing 42,984 10.15 Wholesale trade 17,550 4.14 Retail trade 47,289 11.16 Transportation and warehousing 13,137 3.10 9,237 2.18 18,303 4.32 Real estate and rental and leasing 6,621 1.56 Professional and business services 52,152 12.31 8,733 2.06 45,063 10.64 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 5,943 1.40 Accommodation and food services 33,081 7.81 Other services, except government 20,703 4.89 Government 72,384 17.09 Information Finance and insurance Educational services Health care and social assistance Table A4: Contributions to the US GDP by various components in the US transportation sector xii and projected contributions of sectors in a Developed India. Industry Value added by sector to US GDP in 2005 Per cent of Total in the Transportation sector Value added by sector to a Developed India’s GDP Million Dollars 344,636 40,994 32,269 9,033 114,129 100 11.8 9.4 2.6 33.1 1,033,908 122,982 96,807 27,099 342,387 17,117 9,324 5.0 2.7 51,351 27,972 89,071 32,698 25.8 9.5 267,213 98,094 Million Dollars Transportation and warehousing Air transportation Rail transportation Water transportation Truck transportation Transit and ground passenger transportation Pipeline transportation Other transportation and support activities Warehousing and storage Table A4 shows that in a developed India in about forty years from now, the Rail transportation sector should contribute at least about 97 billion dollars to a developed economy. In 2007-08 financial year, Indian Railways earned Rupees 38,455 crores i.e. about 9.6 billion 19 dollars. This projects a growth requirement of ten times its current value. Since other transportation sectors in India have not as developed as the Railways, Indian Railways has an opportunity to grow and contribute a greater proportion to the Indian GDP than its counterpart in the US economy. Indian Railways may, in fact, keep its 30 percent contribution rate in a developed India. In the latter case, Indian Railways will have to contribute nearly 300 billion dollars or 30 times its 2007-08 earnings. This scenario shows a need for exponential progress and a need for strategic planning at a high level for the Indian Railways. Some ideas are suggested in the Role of Technical section of this white paper. Infrastructure development is already on the top agenda of the Government of India. But infrastructure does not simply mean more tracks and roads, but a coordinated and integrated development of safe, secure, and efficient inter-modal system of transportation. The methods and technologies of developed countries may not be merely copied but newer models should be evolved to suit the Indian conditions and needs. If the economy develops at a 10 percent growth rate annually, Indian Railways should be leading that development by setting higher goals as it is the pace setter in transportation. 20 Appendix B Citizen-friendly Objectives and Goals For example, we may ask, “What is the distance a person has to travel by other means to reach the nearest rail station?” As the Indian Railways expands, this distance should become progressively smaller over time. Such a question might lead to goals for growth measures as follows. Goal 1: Any point in the country should have a railhead within X kilometers. Goal 2: No group of N1 numbers of passengers should wait for more than T1 hours for a long distance train. Goal 3: Suburban traffic: Any point in the greater metro area should have a railhead within Y meters. Goal 4: No group of N2 numbers of suburban passengers should wait for more than T2 minutes for a suburban train. The values for X, Y, N1, T1, N2, T2 will vary as Indian Railways achieves progress. In another way of saying the same thing is that these values should indicate the progress of the Railways. Figure B1 shows two of these measures graphically. As more rail lines and trains per line are added, the distance to the nearest rail station and the wait time for the next train decrease over time. 2026 Figure B1: Graphical Depiction of Measures of Progress. 21 Figure B2 shows a map of the Indian Railways network with grid lines superposed to illustrate the extensiveness and easily reachable rail network to most people as the Indian Railways expands exponentially. Figure B2: Map of India with grid lines superposed on it showing a future Indian Rail Network. A circle, the radius of which is the maximum distance one has to travel to reach a railhead. xiii As more rail lines are added, this circle will shrink. Given the geography of India, East-West lines (in the South) will connect the hinterland to the sea ports as well as the cities, towns, and rural regions along the way. The North-South lines will connect the cities, towns, and rural regions. Indian Railways should analyze and determine how many miles of its track pass through busy cities, towns, and major villages and bisecting them in the process. Realizing that such bisection 22 of localities impedes local transportation by other modes (e.g. foot and road traffic), Indian Railways should develop measures to reconnect these divided neighborhoods. Another critical area is intersections between rail tracks and with major and minor roads. Where there are level crossings, Indian Railways should develop measures for the waiting time of cross traffic or the non-availability of the road for cross traffic as percent of each hour and the day. This measure should be brought down significantly as the Indian Railways grow either by building innovative road over- or under-bridges. Traditionally rail lines are planned to connect point A to point B, where, A and B are major cities, such as Delhi and Mumbai. In the recent past, Indian Railways has launched many special trains interconnecting several major cities. This is generally a welcome trend. But in the long run, this trend may not be optimal. In Western nations, train travel between distant cities is not favored any more. Airline travel has displaced train travel as business people find that the time saved is more valuable to them than the cheaper train fares. (Note the saying, ‘Time is money.’) With airline deregulations and the introduction of no-frills airlines, even the airfares are competitive with the trains. Indian Railways may also face this competitive phenomenon in the next decade or two and should be prepared for that eventuality. In that event, Indian Railways should try to connect to major airport locations and transport airline passengers to regional towns. Airlines handle passenger luggage once they check it in at the boarding location. One may argue that it is essential as aircrafts are not designed to carry luggage in the cabins. In the Western countries, operators of trains and buses also take charge of the passengers’ luggage and deliver it to them at the time of their disembarkation. Indian Railways should consider this option as it is cumbersome for passengers to carry their luggage into the compartments and watch over their safety during the journey. It is quite common to see luggage hanging precariously from the narrow overhead luggage racks with people sitting under them oblivious to the possibility of the luggage dropping on their heads. Indian Railways may also develop another measure for its contribution to India’s social development. This measure will be the number of villages connected by the rail network. There may be a train stop in a village or people of the village may have to travel certain distance to reach a train station. This measure should decrease progressively as Indian Railways expands into rural areas, as more stations are added, and as more trains stop at village stations. There is a strong economic relationship between a city and the villages that surround that city. The villages supply most of the food resources needed by the city and in many cases, the villages supply the labor requirements of the city. The ton-miles of village produce delivered to the city by the railways are a good measure of the service provided to the villages by the Indian Railways. This number should increase with time. There are several management innovations possible here. Traditionally, rural farmers bring their produce (such as vegetables, fruits, grains, milk products, and spices) to the city. Indian Railways could introduce a system where the necessity for the rural producer to travel with the product can be minimized and ultimately eliminated. A modified or refined process of the Mumbai’s Dabbawallas should be explored. Rural producers may pack their produce in packages and a chain of Dabbawallas may deliver them to the railways, who will in turn deliver the packages to several Dabbawallas at stations in the city, who will deliver them to consumers who ordered such products. It is also possible that Indian Railways may work with rural producers and supermarket chains and restaurants in cities. Indian Railways can work with Self 23 Help Groups (SHG) and set up web sites connecting rural sellers and urban buyers while the Railways facilitate the transport of fresh produce. During the last two or three decades, business leaders have focused increasingly on their core competencies and outsourcing all other logistics functions to other companies. For example, these other companies are offering door-to-door logistics services. By placing themselves in that context, a progressive Indian Railways management will have to provide end-to-end services to small and big businesses. It is possible that Indian Railways will partner with other logistics companies in providing such extended services. In the US, the post office actually helps rural farmers to ship seedlings to urban kitchen gardens and nurseries. The service is provided at very cheap rates as it sustains rural farmers on the one hand and keeps the cities green on the other. During early spring truck-loads of potted plants are shipped from sunny climates and green houses to northern areas. The pots are placed in trolleys and the whole trolleys are loaded into trucks and shipped interstate. The trolleys (Figure B3) are offloaded directly at the urban nurseries and supermarkets. This process minimizes handling in cities as all the display-ready trolleys are packed on the rural farms where the labor is cheap. Figure B3: Carts like these are transported in semi-trailers (containers) from farm to retail shops in the US. (xiv) 24 Appendix C Morphological Analysis of Indian Railways, its Mission and Business Opportunities In a competitive market place, customers evaluate experience in addition to price and quality of the product or service they get from a business. Indian Railways should provide good experience to its customers throughout the interaction with customers. Experience starts way before a person plans a journey or thinks of shipping a product and lingers long after the journey is completed and the products are received at the other end. Morphological Analysis is a good technique to understand the factors that have an effect on experience. Fred Zwicky xv described the application of the Morphological approach to a number of problems and generated solutions. Zwicky’s technique involves the identification of components involved in a system and exploring alternatives that make up the components. We may put together combinations with these components and alternatives and realize a large number of cases or solutions. Thus, Zwicky’s Morphological technique allows us to capture any and all cases of actions into a generic framework using the components and alternative instances for the components. The advantage of the Morphological analysis is that it allows us to construct generic models from specific cases. When we discover generic solutions to generic problems, the solutions can also be instantiated for a variety of specific situations. This technique is applicable to several different aspects of the operations of a business. I am focusing on Experience only at this time. In order to develop the parameters for this analysis, first we may take a somewhat simplified look at the processes involved in a passenger’s travel, as shown in Figure C1. Reserve Ticket Wait Board Luggage Journey Disembark Facilities Meals Figure C1: Component Processes a Traveler goes through in a Train Journey. The corresponding set of processes for the journey of freight is shown in Figure C2. Reserve Deliver Invoice Load Journey Unload Receive Environment Figure C2: Component Processes a Shipper and a Package go through. We may further analyze the various types of people that undertake the journeys on trains as shown in Figure C3. Such an analysis is important as the requirements of children are different from those of adults. 25 The corresponding analysis for freight is shown in Figure C4. There are activities like exchanges between Railway officials and employees and passengers shown in Figures C5. Railways People & Freight People Urban Transitors Freight Tourists Rural • Religious • Historic • International • Eco/ Sports • Groups • Airlines • Ships • Bus • Trekking Rural to Rural Urban to Suburban • Commuters • Business • Work • Pleasure • Education • Visits Metro to Metro • Farming • Markets • Business • Work Urban to Rural • Business • Work • Pleasure • Education • Visits Rural to Urban • Markets • Business • Work • Markets • Business • Work • Pleasure • Development Figure C3: Various types of Passengers Using the Railways shown as a Network Tree. Railways People & Freight People Raw Material Agricultur e Intermediate s Processed Animal s Freight Foo d Manufacture d Export s Imports Figure C4: Various types of Shipments Using the Railways shown as a Network Tree. 26 Railways People & Freight People Freight Hand Baggage Luggage Food Other Figure C5: Types of Items that Travelers and Railways Exchange along a journey. While the above information is shown as a network of trees, the same information can be represented in the form of a list of lists. Figure C6 shows the Origin and Destination components and alternatives for each category. Various combinations can subsequently be selected by choosing one item from each list; one such combination is shown with circles marking the selection (a Suburban Passenger on his/her way to the Airport) shown in Figure C7. We can address questions relating to the criteria people use when they undertake a journey. We can also analyze data on various combinations. For example, we can ask what other transportation mode will be competing for their business and what transportation modes will be supplementing the services of the railways with a view to developing strategies for competition and for collaboration. Load Passengers Freight Origin Destination City Suburb Rural Mine Field Factory Market Factory Port Airport Bus Depot City Suburb Rural Mine Field Factory Market Factory Port Airport Bus Depot Figure C6: List of Lists of Components shown earlier in a tree net. 27 Figure C7: A Selected Combination marked by Circles. Figure C8 shows the criteria that are employed by the railways and by passengers or customers. Such lists of criteria are important to identify where conflicts may arise and where expectations can be managed before frustration sets in on either side. Passenger’s criteria Railways’ Criteria Low cost Fast travel Convenience Maximum comfort Good safety Security High profit Low cost High productivity High efficiency Large load factor Figure C8: Criteria used by the Passengers and the Railways in their Interactions. 28 During the various phases of their journey, passengers have a variety of activities with expectations (Figure C9). They have different concerns. Initially, they worry if they will get a reservation or not. During the journey, they wonder if the train would arrive on time or would they miss their connection. Some of these concerns are shown in Figure C10. The types of passengers are shown in C11 as the interests and concerns and therefore expectations are different for different passengers. Indian Railways should do such analysis in detail as the results allow them to take measures it can take to make it attractive for passengers to choose and become loyal rail customers. It also allows Railway managers and staffs to respond to situations as they occur rather than coping with public reaction after events occur. Figure C9: Types of Experience Expectations of Passengers during the Journey component of the Process. 29 Figures C10: Passengers’ Concerns during a Journey Figures C11: Types of Passengers. As stated in the beginning of this Appendix, one deals with innumerable number of concerns and expectations but Morphological analysis brings them under a framework, which makes it easier for Railways to address methodically. It may be noted that a complete analysis is not 30 attempted here as the author’s intention was merely to show the combinations that can be enumerated by this method. 31 End Notes 11 i http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/ http://www.irfca.org/faq/faq-hist.html http://www.irfca.org/faq/faq-history2.html http://www.irfca.org/faq/faq-history3.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Railways http://www.answers.com/topic/indian-railways http://www.trainweb.org/indiarail/ttable.htm http://www.indiacore.com/railways.html http://www.irfca.org/faq/ http://www.raildwar.com/ http://h71000.www7.hp.com/openvms/brochures/indiarr/indiarr.pdf http://www.it.indianrail.gov.in/coabrief.htm http://indianrailways.gov.in/cert/Cert.htm http://www.cs.memphis.edu/~santosh/Papers/IndianRailways.pdf http://www2.nortel.com/go/news_detail.jsp?cat_id=-8055&oid=100206237&locale=en-US http://www.cmcltd.com/case_studies/transportation/fois.htm ii Russell L. Ackoff, Elsa Vergara Finnel, and Jamshid Gharajedaghi, “A Guide to Controlling Your Corporation’s Future”, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1984, ISBN 0-471-88213-5. iv http://www.hindu.com/2008/01/21/stories/2008012150130100.htm v http://www.livemint.com/Industry/TS5codp9EKWM7QZLShXiEM/IIT-Kanpur-scientists-develop-green-toiletsfor-trains.html iii vi http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030126/spectrum/main2.htm vii http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/34707 viii Actually, India would still not catch up with the US, as the US GDP would have risen in the meantime and the Indian inflation rates and population increase would also impact the results. For simplicity sake, the current author has taken the liberty of using data from different years in these illustrative calculations and made comparisons. On the other hand, with smart utilization of emerging technologies and choices of living patterns, Indians may enjoy better standard of living even at lower GDP levels. ix http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMq8CgWY6co4 x http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/gsp1006.pdf Data compiled by the current author from Table 3 of a report of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis available at this web site. Detailed data are available at http://www.bea.gov/bea/pn/GDPbyInd_VA_NAICS_19982005.xls) xi http://www.bea.gov/bea/pn/GDPbyInd_VA_NAICS_1998-2005.xls Table compiled by the current author from Bureau of Economic Census Data for 2005 from the spreadsheet at this site. xii Table compiled by the current author from the US BEA data as in http://www.bea.gov/bea/pn/GDPbyInd_VA_NAICS_1998-2005.xls 11 Some of the references were repeated from the earlier draft of this paper and the content of some of those webpages has changed while some webpages were not active anymore; the author apologizes for that problem. 32 xiii xiv http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/india/india-railway-map.htm Source: http://www.wellmaster.on.ca/cgi-bin/index.pl?RC xv Zwicky, F. (1960), A morphologist ponders the smog problem, Engineering and Science Journal, California Institute of Technology 24: (2); 22-26; Zwicky, F. (1962), Morphology of Propulsive Power, Society for Morphological Research, Pasadena, CA; Zwicky, F. (1969), Discovery, Invention, Research: Through the Morphological Approach, Macmillan, Toronto; Karamchetty, Som D., “The Application of Morphological Analysis to Discovering Mew Forms of Business,” Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Change, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1996, Plenum Publishing Corporation. 33