Project Title: ARIGA - Assessing Risk of Investment in Groundwater Development in SubSaharan Africa
Project lead: Jan de Leeuw
Leader Center: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
SRP/Theme mapped into: Information Systems
Title: Assessment of hydrological, financial and social risk around the supply of groundwater to
Wajir town
What is the outcome of the research: ARIGA informed stakeholders on the hydrological, financial and socio-political risks of the proposed project to abstract groundwater to supply the city
of Wajir with clean water. Following presentations stakeholders stated that the information
changed their position from being a proponent to a more neutral position. This change in perspective was best expressed by the chairman of the Northern Water Board of Kenya, who indicated that, while he arrived to the project as a proponent of the Merti Wajir pipeline project, he
was now aware of the various risks that had not been addressed and indicated that these risks
needed to be considered in the decision making around the investment. The concerns of the
ARIGA team that risks were not being addressed were also shared with the Netherlands Embassy and the Facility for Infrastructure Development of the Netherlands Ministry of Economic
Affairs (ORIO), the Dutch donor. The ORIO project officer informed us that the ARIGA research
raised awareness and that ORIO might consider commissioning additional studies to reduce
these uncertainties.
What outputs produced in the 3 preceding years resulted in that outcome: The results
were obtained from running probabilistic decision models built in a participatory process with
stakeholders and additional social surveys, which were presented to stakeholders during workshop presentations in Nairobi and to the prospective donor (ORIO) in the Hague. The approach
was based on the intervention decision modelling framework developed under the WLE Information Systems SRP.
What partners helped in producing the outcome and what was their role? Acacia Water,
the Netherlands, hydrological risk assessment; CETRAD Nanyuki, Kenya and University College
London, U.K., Social risk assessment.
Who used the output? Wajir County Government, the Northern Water Board, ORIO.
How was the output used (or will be used in the future)? The preliminary results were presented to 20 stakeholders during a workshop on May 26, 2014 and to ORIO during a visit to the
Netherlands on June 17, 2014. It was agreed that ICRAF would provide their final results to be
used by the stakeholders in their decision-making.
What is the evidence for this outcome? The research was covered in Kenyan media. The project is also described here.
What lessons did you learn in this process? The main lesson was counterintuitive. When
asked for risk around groundwater development most groundwater development practitioners intuitively consider long-term risks, such as boreholes running dry due to aquifer overutilization.
While the ARIGA research confirmed the probability of boreholes running dry or turning saline in
the long run it also revealed that financial and socio political risks are much more imminent, particularly the risk of the negative returns on investment of the private enterprise supposed to deliver the service, and contrasting perspectives among the various stakeholders which could obstruct and derail the decision making required. Investment risks are rarely considered in ground
water development studies. The risks of political interference related to inadequate benefits
sharing also emerged as a key uncertainty. The ARIGA research suggests that this may require
greater attention and inclusion in future project feasibility studies.