Northwest Climate Science Digest: Science and Learning Opportunities Combined
December 2015 Issue
The Northwest Climate Science Digest is a monthly newsletter jointly produced by the
Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation
Cooperative aimed at helping you stay informed about climate change science and upcoming
events and training opportunities relevant to your conservation work. Feel free to share this
information within your organization and networks, and please note the role the NW CSC
and NPLCC played in providing this service. Do you have a published article or upcoming
opportunity that you would like to share? Please send it our way to nwcsc@uw.edu. Many
thanks to those who have provided material for this edition, particularly the Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Water News. The contents of the
Climate Digest are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent
the views of the NPLCC or the Northwest Climate Science Center.
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SCIENCE: Recent climate change-relevant publications, special reports and science
resources.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming climate change-relevant webinars, workshops,
conferences, list servers and other learning opportunities.
PREVIOUS ISSUES: An archive of previous Northwest Climate Change Digest issues
developed by Region 1 of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Assessing impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity in protected areas of western
North America
Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers and climate change responses
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
Climate change and marine vertebrates
Response of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification
Pacific Ocean becomes a caldron
Aquatic Resources/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Global volume and distribution of groundwater and its vulnerability to climate change
Potential for snow to supply human water demand in present and future
Arid Ecosystems
Contrasting distribution patterns of invasive and naturalized non-native species in a semiarid montane ecosystem
Land Use
Climate change and migration in the Puget Sound region
Effects of climate change on U.S. air quality
Climate change impacts on the Willamette River Basin
Forests
Emerging dominance of forest decline
Regional variation in US forest carbon futures
Fire
Issues with fire suppression
Prescribed fire risks relative to other management techniques
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Low coho salmon returns close Quinault Fisheries
Quinault Indian Nation confronts climate change
Engaging indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems
Taking Action
New King County climate goals
Stakeholders in climate science: beyond lip service?
Paris Climate Change Conference 2015
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
State of Knowledge Report: Climate change in Puget Sound
Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula
Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western U.S.
Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States
Special Reports/ Announcements
Billy Frank Jr. to receive Presidential Medal of Freedom
World Meteorological Organization announcement on the state of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere
----------------------------------------------Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Assessing impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity in protected areas of
western North America: A new study examines the climate-driven ecological change
within protected area networks in order to help managers develop more effective climateadaptation strategies. University of Washington scientists Jesse Langdon and Joshua Lawler
quantified this projected change using three metrics: future projected changes in temperature
and precipitation, shifts in major vegetation types, and vertebrate species turnover for the
protected areas of the Pacific Northwestern region of North America. This study found that
low elevation areas near the coast and throughout the Coastal Mountains were expected to
experience the least climate-driven ecological change, whereas the higher elevation areas in
the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin were expected to experience the most change. These
findings will support the need to develop appropriate, location-specific climate-adaptation
strategies for protected areas in response to disparate trends in future environmental change.
Langdon, J. G., & Lawler, J. J. (2015). Assessing the impacts of projected climate change on
biodiversity in the protected areas of western North America. Ecosphere, 6(5), art87.
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES14-00400.1
Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers and climate change responses: A new
study addresses the question of how seed availability and suitable germination microsites will
limit tree species’ ability to shift their ranges in response to climate change. University of
Washington scientists Steve Kroiss and Janneke HilleRisLambers assessed seed availability
and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental
gradient encompassing the species’ elevational ranges. Specifically, the study examined four
factors: how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability, how seed limitation
varies across species’ ranges, how climatic and biotic factors affect germination, and how
seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. The study
found that seed availability decreased toward the upper edge of species’ range, and the
researchers concluded that this outcome would lead to a lagged expansion in range. The
study also found that microsite limitation varied strongly between low-elevation and treeline
species due to varying responses to snowpack duration. Kroiss and HilleRisLambers
ultimately conclude that the difference in species’ responses to seed and microsite limitation
could lead to complex range shift dynamics.
Kroiss, S. J., & HilleRisLambers, J. (2015). Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers:
implications for climate change responses. Ecology, 96(5), 1286-1297.
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-0595.1
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
Climate change and marine vertebrates: A new study published in the special Oceans
and Climate section of Science examined the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic
climate change on marine vertebrates. The study reviewed marine fish, mammal, turtle, and
seabird responses to climate change and discussed their potential for adaptation. The authors
found that every observed ocean demonstrated both direct and indirect responses, and
identified mechanisms of change to be direct physiological responses and climate-mediated
predator-prey interactions. The endothermic organisms that the study observed (i.e. seabirds
and mammals) responded indirectly to climate change, while the ectothermic fish were
observed to respond immediately to small changes in temperature and oxygen concentration.
The study emphasized that, although indirect responses are less immediate compared to
those that are direct, they are powerful and difficult to reverse. The study concluded by
stressing the need to integrate climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models
that incorporate evolutionary processes in order to prioritize climate-related conservation
needs for marine vertebrates.
Sydeman, W.J., E. Poloczanska, T.E. Reed, and S.A. Thompson. (2015). Climate change and
marine vertebrates. Science 13 (350, no. 6262): 772-777, doi: 10.1126/science.aac9874
https://cig.uw.edu/publications/climate-change-and-marine-vertebrates/
Response of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification: A recent study
published by Nature examines the related effects of ocean acidification on freshwater
ecosystems. Specifically, the authors assess the impacts of CO2-induced acidification on the
early development of pink salmon. Using predicted future levels of CO2 with a naturally
fluctuating CO2 treatment, the researchers measured growth, routine and maximum
metabolic rate, levels of anxiety, and olfactory and anti-predator responses to conspecific
alarm cues in various stages of development. The study concluded that acidification
produced negative effects on the growth, metabolism, olfactory responses, and anti-predator
behavior in pink salmon during freshwater development and post-seawater entry. This study
extends the risk of ocean acidification to freshwater ecosystems and highlights the
importance of climate change mitigation.
Ou, M., Hamilton, T. J., Eom, J., Lyall, E. M., Gallup, J., Jiang, A & Brauner, C. J. (2015).
Responses of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification. Nature Climate Change, 5(10),
950-955.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n10/full/nclimate2694.html
Pacific Ocean becomes a caldron: John Schwartz of the New York Times summarizes all
the factors playing into why the Pacific Ocean has exhibited such anomalous behavior of
late. Specifically recalling the extreme strength of Hurricane Patricia off the coast of Mexico,
and the subsequent desire to peg it as the consequence of a specific event, Schwartz lists the
myriad of climatic processes currently acting on the Pacific Ocean and therefore the
difficulty in blaming the hurricane on a single cause. From the formation of a strong El Nino
system along the Equator, to the “Blob” of warm water sitting off the North American
coast, to the warming shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, it is possible that the Pacific
Ocean is experiencing extreme conditions formed through the combination of these
individual processes. Schwartz interviewed Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond who
concludes that the confluence of problems can serve as a “wake-up call,” and a harbinger of
future conditions under climate change.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/science/global-warming-pacific-ocean-el-ninoblob.html?_r=0
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Global volume and distribution of groundwater and its vulnerability to climate
change: In this new study, scientists updated a 40-year-old estimate of the Earth’s total
volume of groundwater. The study compiled geochemical, geologic, hydrologic, and
geospatial datasets with numerical simulations of groundwater, as well as analyzed modern
groundwater (less than 50 years old) from tritium measurements. Modern groundwater is
important because it is; 1) a better renewable resource than older groundwater, 2) a huge
component of the hydrologic cycle as well as global biogeochemical cycles, and 3) more
vulnerable to industrial or agricultural contamination. This study distinguishes modern
groundwater from older groundwater by measuring tritium, an isotope of hydrogen whose
concentration in precipitation peaked approximately 50 years ago (during above-ground
thermonuclear testing). The study found that less than 6% (0.1-5.0 million km3) of the
groundwater in the uppermost portion of Earth’s landmass is modern. Despite seeming
minor, the volume of modern groundwater is equivalent to a body of water with a depth of
about 3 m spread evenly over the continents. This water resource dwarfs all other
components of the active hydrologic cycle and will be critical for future energy, food
security, human health, and ecosystems.
Gleeson, T., Befus, K. M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., & Cardenas, M. B. (2015). The global
volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nature Geoscience.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2590.html
Potential for snow to supply human water demand in present and future: A new study
identifies drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere that are at risk of losing their snowsupplied water source in the upcoming century. The study quantified where changes to
snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given subannual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. The
researchers used a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections. The study found
that the snow-dependent basins of the Northern Hemisphere that are at risk of losing their
water supply are currently populated by 2 billion people. These basins were estimated to be
exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply. Of these basins, the researchers identified
32 that were found to be the most sensitive to change. Included in this category were basins
in northern and central California (where very productive agricultural land exists), and the
Colorado River basin that serves most of the American West. The results from this study
come with irreducible uncertainty, however, and can mainly be used to emphasize the
importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many Northern Hemisphere
basins.
Mankin, J. S., Viviroli, D., Singh, D., Hoekstra, A. Y., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2015). The
potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future. Environmental
Research Letters, 10(11), 114016.
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/articles/view/3265
Arid Ecosystems
Contrasting distribution patterns of invasive and naturalized non-native species in a
semi-arid montane ecosystem: A new study examines differences in distribution patterns
of invasive and naturalized non-native species along various environmental gradients in a
semi-arid montane ecosystem. The researchers surveyed non-native plant species along three
mountain roads to assess the extent of invasion success in relation to distance from the
roadside, as well as along the native habitat matrix to assess invasion success in relation to
elevation gradients. The study found that invasive species have similar patterns of habitat
associations and spread from roadsides to interior vegetation zones, whereas naturalized
species partition environmental gradients within the semi-arid montane ecosystem. The
study further suggests that annual and invasive species groups occupy lower elevations and
perennial and naturalized species groups have invaded further up the mountains roads and
into the native vegetation. The study concluded that functional groupings potentially explain
contrasting distribution patterns of non-native species. Findings from this research can be
used to inform management strategies for non-native species, particularly in how such
strategies must be modified to accommodate the difference in species behavior along
environmental gradients.
Anderson, K. M., Naylor, B. J., Endress, B. A., & Parks, C. G. (2015). Contrasting
distribution patterns of invasive and naturalized non-native species along environmental
gradients in a semi-arid montane ecosystem. Applied Vegetation Science, 18(4), 683-693.
http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/57448/EndressBryanAgric
NaturalResourceContrastingDistributionPatterns.pdf?sequence=1
Land Use
Climate change and migration in the Puget Sound region: This report responds to the
interests of the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group and its stakeholders in
the claim that climate change will cause an unanticipated surge of newcomers to move to the
Puget Sound region. This systematic literature review of media coverage, peer-reviewed
social science research, and agency reports assesses this “climate refugee hypothesis” in light
of what is known about both the influence of climate change upon migration and the nature
of Puget Sound’s existing migration system. A synthesis of this information suggests that a
sudden and dramatic population increase is unlikely to occur, given the nature of anticipated
climate impacts in Puget Sound’s migration system and the fact that migration into Puget
Sound is driven primarily by economic factors. However, climate change could have some
effect on population flows, both directly and indirectly through its economic impacts, and
population forecasting currently does not fully account for these possible consequences.
Many researchable questions remain about the influence of climate forces upon migration
into the region both now and in the future. Pursuing one or more of these investigations
could better prepare regional public service providers for demographic changes that could
result from climate change.
Saperstein, A. 2015. Climate Change, Migration, and the Puget Sound Region: What We Know and
How We Could Learn More. Report prepared for the University of Washington Climate
Impacts Group. The Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of
Washington, Seattle.
https://cig.uw.edu/publications/climate-change-migration-and-the-puget-sound-region/
Effects of climate change on U.S. air quality: A new study published in Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics examines the effects of global changes on air quality in the United States.
Air quality was measured based on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter
with diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The scientists conducted a comprehensive
modeling effort to evaluate the effects of climate change, biogenic emissions, land use and
global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and
composition. The results of this study suggest that the efforts to improve air quality through
low emission technologies and public policy directed to the electricity generation sector may
not have a major effect, if future emissions from other sectors are allowed to increase. In
addition, higher global anthropogenic emissions, a warmer future world and the effects of
these changes on emissions from biogenic sources may increasingly undermine all regulatory
efforts. Consequently, additional measures may be necessary to improve air quality in the
U.S.
Gonzalez-Abraham, R., Chung, S. H., Avise, J., Lamb, B., Salathé Jr, E. P., Nolte, C. G., &
Streets, D. G. (2015). The effects of global change upon United States air quality. Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 15(21), 12645-12665.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/12645/2015/acp-15-12645-2015.html
Climate change impacts on the Willamette River Basin: A new study attempts to
further understand how Pacific Northwest ecosystem services will be impacted by with
future warming in order to inform future planning efforts. Scientist David Turner from
Oregon State University (OSU) collaborated with David Conklin (Common Futures LLC)
and John Bolte (OSU) to examine how forest cover and land use over the Willamette River
Basin will be affected by climate change. The results of this study showed that dominant
potential vegetation cover type remained forest throughout the basin, but forest type
transitioned from primarily evergreen needleleaf to a mixture of broadleaf and needleleaf
that was adapted to a warmer climate. By 2100, there was a difference between potential and
actual forest type for 20-50% of the forested area. In the moderate to high climate change
scenarios, the average area burned per year increased three-to-nine-fold from the present
day. A generally more distributed and open forest landscape is expected, which may
significantly alter the hydrologic cycle.
Turner, D. P., Conklin, D. R., & Bolte, J. P. (2015). Projected climate change impacts on
forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. Climatic
Change, 133(2), 335-348.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4#/page-1
Forests
Emerging dominance of forest decline: This recent publication presents the first direct
comparison of annual trends among forest disturbance causal agent classes for the
conterminous United States as a whole and for five distinct forested regions of the country
using consistent methods across classes and over a several-decade time period (1985-2012).
To do this, the study used visual based interpretation of Landsat time series supported by
high spatial resolution imagery in Google Earth and ancillary disturbance datasets from
government agencies. The report found national rates of disturbance varied between 1.5%
and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance
among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. National harvest
disturbance rates varied as well and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily
forested regions of the U.S. (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). The results from
this study indicate shifting forest disturbance dynamic over the past several decades. Prior to
the late-90s disturbance patterns were largely driven by anthropogenic forces (e.g., harvest)
and since the late-90s, natural forces (e.g., climate, insects, and disease) have dominated
national disturbance rates. The authors conclude by emphasizing that similar studies are
possible to be carried out for other countries where there are sufficient Landsat data and
historical temporal snapshots of high-resolution imagery.
Cohen, W. B., Yang, Z., Stehman, S. V., Schroeder, T. A., Bell, D. M., Masek, J. G., & Meigs,
G. W. (2016). Forest disturbance across the conterminous United States from 1985–2012:
The emerging dominance of forest decline. Forest Ecology and Management, 360, 242-252.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037811271500599X
Regional variation in US forest carbon futures: Scientists David Wear and John Coulston
from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service have published a new study
examining regional variation in the role of future U.S. forests in carbon sequestration.
Currently, forests of the conterminous U.S. act as a sink for carbon with a net sequestration
of 173 Tg of atmospheric carbon per year. This sink offsets 9.7% of carbon emissions from
transportation and energy sources, and is considered an important player in reducing the
U.S.’s overall carbon emissions to target levels. The results of this study project a gradual
decline in the forest carbon emission sink over the next 25 years, to approximately 112 Tg of
atmospheric carbon per year. This overall decline varies among different regions of the U.S.
The eastern regions displayed a more gradual decline whereas the Rocky Mountains declined
more rapidly. Furthermore the Rocky Mountains may become a source of atmospheric
carbon due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. Conversely, carbon
sequestration in the Pacific Coast region was projected to stabilize because of forests
harvested in previous decades that will continue to regrow. Overall declines in sequestration
were still predicted when including climate-induced productivity enhancement and
afforestation policies aimed at increasing sequestration rate. Wear and Coulston believe this
is because of the huge source of atmospheric carbon that comes from forest disturbances
and forest aging. The results of this study clarify forests’ role in reducing net emissions and
demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink
strength.
Wear, D. N., & Coulston, J. W. (2015). From sink to source: Regional variation in US forest
carbon futures. Scientific reports, 5: 16518. doi:10.1038/srep16518.
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16518
Fire
Issues with fire suppression: A new study examines the social dynamics that influence
conflict among local residents and outside professionals involved in wildfire management or
suppression. Interviews were conducted with local residents of a southeastern Washington
community in 2012 to better understand conflict surrounding wildfire management of the
2006 Columbia Complex fire. The results of this study demonstrated that conflict stemmed
from differences in the norms characterizing the local community and the established
practices of outside firefighters, the inability of these two groups to communicate in a way
that established shared meanings for values at risk, and local residents’ desire to contribute to
suppression efforts rather than give up complete control to outside resources. In addition to
these sources of conflict, the authors extend their research to examine the long-term legacy
of conflict surrounding the Columbia Complex fire. This included increased distrust of
externally based fire response and entrenched views about locals’ right to protect their
property. The study concluded by discussing the need to account for the legacy of conflict
during future wildfire events and the reasons such conflict are likely to arise in rural or
agricultural communities
Paveglio, T. B., Carroll, M. S., Hall, T. E., & Brenkert-Smith, H. (2015). ‘Put the wet stuff on
the hot stuff’: The legacy and drivers of conflict surrounding wildfire suppression. Journal of
Rural Studies, 41, 72-81.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016715300115
Prescribed fire risks relative to other management techniques: A new study tests the
general perception that prescribed fire is a riskier technique relative to other land
management options. The researchers used a three different approaches to test this notion:
1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for
techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from
wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for
wildland fire-related fatalities. The results of this did not support using risks of landowner
fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as
mechanical equipment, over prescribed fire. The study provides the foundation for agencies
to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for
prescribed burning on private lands.
Twidwell D, Wonkka CL, Sindelar MT, Weir JR (2015) First Approximations of Prescribed
Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands. PLoS ONE
10(10): e0140410. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140410
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0140410
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Low coho salmon returns close Quinault Fisheries: Low returns of wild coho salmon
are prompting the Quinault Indian Nation to close all its fisheries in Grays Harbor and
Queets River and to declare an economic disaster because of the resulting hardship on
fishermen and their families. Quinault President Fawn Sharp stated the difficulty in deciding
to close the fisheries, as this will have serious economic consequences on the Quinault
community. Days before the Quinault Indian Nation made this decision, similar moves were
made by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Sharp concluded by saying that
the drastically low salmon returns should be seen as reflective of ocean health as a whole.
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/10/29/situation-dire-low-coho-salmonreturns-close-quinault-fisheries-162266
Quinault Indian Nation confronts climate change: The Quinault Indian Nation has to
confront the question of abandoning lands it has inhabited for thousands of years. Located
on the outer coast of Washington’s Olympic Peninsula, the Nation relies on a 2,000 footlong sea wall to protect them against sea level rise. The Indian Nation has developed a $60
million plan to move the entire village uphill and out of harm’s way. The Quinault Nation’s
president Fawn Shaw says she will be turning to Congress, philanthropists, and the tribe’s
own financial resources to pay for this project. In addition to the threat of sea level rise, the
Quinault Indian Nation is also dealing with the depletion of the Quinault River, the
community’s main freshwater source, as well as the decline of salmon populations, an
industry that the nation heavily relies upon. Shaw will be attending the climate talks in Paris
as a voice for her community.
http://kuow.org/post/washington-tribe-confronts-climate-change-sea-level-rise
Engaging indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems: The
organizers of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment (NCA) made a concerted effort to
reach out to and collaborate with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the most comprehensive
information to date on climate change impacts to Indigenous peoples in a US national
assessment. Yet, there is still much room for improvement in assessment processes to ensure
adequate recognition of Indigenous perspectives and Indigenous knowledge systems. This
article discusses the process used in creating the Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources
NCA chapter by a team comprised of tribal members, agencies, academics, and
nongovernmental organizations, who worked together to solicit, collect, and synthesize
traditional knowledge and data from a diverse array of Indigenous communities across the
US. It also discusses the synergy and discord between traditional knowledge systems and
science and the emergence of cross-cutting issues and vulnerabilities for Indigenous peoples.
The challenges of coalescing information about climate change and its impacts on
Indigenous communities are outlined along with recommendations on the types of
information to include in future assessment outputs. The authors recommend that future
assessments should support integration of Indigenous perspectives in a sustained way that
builds respectful relationships and effectively engages Indigenous communities. Given the
large number of tribes in the US and the current challenges and unique vulnerabilities of
Indigenous communities, a special report focusing solely on climate change and Indigenous
peoples is warranted.
Maldonado, J., Bennett, T. B., Chief, K., Cochran, P., Cozzetto, K., Gough, B., & Voggesser,
G. (2015). Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge
systems. Clim Chang. doi, 10, 1007.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1535-7
Taking Action
New King County climate goals: King County Executive Dow Constantine signed a
renewed, regional plan to address climate change over the next half-century. The Strategic
Climate Action Plan (SCAP) is King County’s blueprint for climate action, and provides
“one-stop-shopping” for county decision-makers, employees, and the general public to learn
about the County’s climate change commitments. The 2015 SCAP charts a clear pathway to
achieve a clean energy future, where the region’s local governments, businesses and
communities are working together towards an equitable, sustainable and thriving King
County for all who live, work and play here. Sydney Brownstone of The Stranger has
condensed the 151-page SCAP into a comprehensive summary.
To download report:
http://your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/climate/documents/2015_King_County_SCAPFull_Plan.pdf
Summary from The Stranger:
http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/11/17/23156767/king-county-setambitious-new-climate-goals-yesterday-heres-what-that-means
Stakeholders in climate science: beyond lip service?: A recently published paper in
Science assesses the current state of transdisciplinary climate research and how different
research networks engage with their stakeholders. The study categorized a set of 27 climate
change research networks that perform various knowledge functions and exhibit different
forms of stakeholder engagement, from distributing knowledge to users to coproducing it
with stakeholders. The sets of networks were analyzed to 1) compare examples of climate
change research networks and elicit the patterns of knowledge functions, 2) demonstrate that
many networks are emphasizing knowledge coproduction with stakeholders, and 3) build an
interactive database of networks so as to ignite broader dialogue on the role of stakeholders
in science. The results from this research suggest that climate change science can have a
robust social impact when stakeholders are an active and engaged part of the research
network community.
Klenk, N. L., Meehan, K., Pinel, S. L., Mendez, F., Torres, P., Lima, D., & Kammen, M.
(2015). Stakeholders in climate science: Beyond lip service?. Science, 350(6262), 743-744.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/350/6262/743
Paris Climate Change Conference 2015: The 21st United Nations Climate Change
Conference (COP21) is taking place in Le Bourget, France from November 30 – December
11. This year’s conference is particularly significant because it is expected that a new
international agreement on climate change will be agreed upon. The New York Times is
reporting complete coverage of the meeting and synthesizing the important highlights.
COP21 website:
http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/
NY Times coverage:
http://www.nytimes.com/news-event/un-climate-change-conference
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
State of Knowledge Report: Climate change in Puget Sound: State of Knowledge: Climate
Change in Puget Sound is a comprehensive synthesis report summarizing relevant research on
the likely effects of climate change on the lands, water, and people of the Puget Sound
wardregion. Part of the Climate Impacts Group’s “State of Knowledge” series, this report
details observed and projected changes for Puget Sound’s climate, water resources, forests,
species and ecosystems, coasts and ocean, infrastructure, agriculture, and human health in an
easy-to-read summary format designed to complement the foundational literature (peerreviewed science, community and agency reports, and publicly available datasets) from which
it draws. The report also describes local climate change risk reduction activities and
highlights data resources available to support local climate adaptation efforts. The work was
funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency via the Puget Sound Institute at UW
Tacoma, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the State of
Washington.
https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/ps-sok/
To download report:
http://cses.washington.edu/picea/mauger/ps-sok/PS-SoK_2015.pdf
Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula: A new report
produces a climate change preparedness plan for the North Olympic Peninsula. The project
synthesized the best available climate change projections with local stakeholder expertise of
vulnerable sectors to ultimately develop climate change preparedness strategies for the North
Olympic Peninsula. With this project and other similar efforts, the North Olympic Peninsula
has a unique opportunity to promote collaboration on climate change adaptation between
federal, state, local, and tribal governments, non-profit organizations, academic institutions,
and private businesses. The project brought together more than 175 partners over the course
of one year. Through virtual meetings and a series of in-person workshops, a climate change
stakeholder network was built and the best available climate change science was compiled.
Potential areas of concern were identified and assessed, and adaptation strategies were
evaluated for Jefferson and Clallam counties. The project’s efforts resulted in an extensive
report that has the potential to build overall climate resilience in the North Olympic
Peninsula and promote the best possible future outcomes for the region’s inhabitants and
ecosystems.
http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20151113/news/311139970/group-suggestsclimate-changes-preparations-for-north-olympic
To download report:
http://katedean.wix.com/noprcd#!about2/c1yuo
Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western U.S.: Computing resources
donated by volunteers have generated the first superensemble of regional climate model
results, in which the Hadley regional model HadRM3P and atmospheric global model
HadAM3P were implemented for the western US at 25km resolution. Over 136,000 valid
and complete one-year runs have been generated to date: about 126,000 for 1960-2009 using
observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and 10,000 for 2030-2049 using projected SSTs
from a global model simulation. Ensemble members differ in initial conditions, model
physics, and (potentially, for future runs) SSTs. This unprecedented confluence of high
spatial resolution and large ensemble size allows high signal-to-noise ratio and more robust
estimates of uncertainty. This paper describes the experiment, compares model output with
observations, shows select results for climate change simulations, and gives examples of the
strength of the large ensemble size.
Mote, P. W., Allen, M. R., Jones, R. G., Li, S., Mera, R., Rupp, D. E., & Vickers, D. (2015).
Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, (2015).
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1
Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States:
Simulations from a regional climate model (RCM) as part of a superensemble experiment
were compared with observations of surface meteorological variables over the western
United States. The RCM is the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model, version 3, with
improved physics parameterizations (HadRM3P) run at 25-km resolution and nested within
the Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3 (HadAM3P). Overall, the means of
seasonal temperature were well represented in the simulations; 95% of grid points were
within 2.78, 2.48, and 3.68C of observations in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The
model was too warm over most of the domain in summer except central California and
southern Nevada. HadRM3P produced more extreme temperatures than observed. The
overall magnitude and spatial pattern of precipitation were well characterized, though
HadRM3P exaggerated the orographic enhancement along the coastal mountains, Cascade
Range, and Sierra Nevada. HadRM3P produced warm/dry northwest, cool/wet southwest
U.S. patterns associated with El Niño. However, there were notable differences, including
the locations of the transition from warm (dry) to cool (wet) in the anomaly fields when
compared with observations, though there was disagreement among observations.
HadRM3P simulated the observed spatial pattern of mean annual temperature more
faithfully than any of the RCM–GCM pairings in the North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Errors in mean annual precipitation from
HadRM3P fell within the range of errors of the NARCCAP models. Last, this paper
provided examples of the size of an ensemble required to detect changes at the local level
and demonstrated the effect of parameter perturbation on regional precipitation.
Li, S., Mote, P. W., Rupp, D. E., Vickers, D., Mera, R., & Allen, M. (2015). Evaluation of a
Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble
from Weather@ home*. Journal of Climate, 28(19), 7470-7488.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1
Special Reports/Announcements
Billy Frank Jr. to receive Presidential Medal of Freedom: Billy Frank Jr., the Nisqually
native rights activist whose protests and fish-ins during the 1960s and 1970s often landed
him in jail, will be posthumously awarded the nation’s highest civilian accolade, the
Presidential Medal of Freedom, on November 24, the White House announced on Monday.
“Billy Frank Jr. was a tireless advocate for Indian treaty rights and environmental
stewardship, whose activism paved the way for the Boldt decision, which reaffirmed tribal comanagement of salmon resources in the state of Washington,” the White House said in a
release. Born and raised just outside the Nisqually Reservation on a small homestead known
as Frank’s Landing, the former chairman of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission was
arrested an estimated 50 times by game wardens for fishing with a gillnet on the Nisqually
River. Commercial fishing and the post World War II rise of sport fishing increased the
pressure put on state wildlife officials to limit fishing by Native tribes. Billy and his family
were turned into outlaws for doing what they had done for untold generations.
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/11/17/honoring-billy-frank-jrpresidential-medal-freedom-and-bellingham-street-162447
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/president-obama-namesrecipients-presidential-medal-freedom
World Meteorological Organization Announcement on the state of Greenhouse
Gases in the Atmosphere: The World Meteorological Organization in cooperation with the
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases and the Global Atmosphere Watch Scientific
Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases has released its eleventh annual Greenhouse Gas
Bulletin. The report compiles latest information of atmospheric abundances and rates of
change of the most important long-lived greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide. The Bulletin also provides a summary of other gases contributing to the
greenhouse effect of our atmosphere.
http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghg-bulletin_11_en.pdf
UPCOMING EVENTS
12/1 – Deadline. Abstracts Due: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
12/3 – Training, Berkeley, CA. Northern California Climate Fundamentals Academy
12/8, 8:30-9:20am – Seminar, Seattle, WA. Water in the Pacific Northwest Seminar
12/8, 10am – Webinar. NOAA Digital Coast - Using Flood Exposure Maps
12/8-12/10 – Symposium, Portland, OR. 2015 Forest Inventory and Analysis Science Symposium
12/9, 11am – Webinar. Science delivery: Approaches and influences on success
12/9-12/10 – Training, Fort Collins, CO. Climate Adaptation Conservation Training & Coaching
Session
12/10, 11am – Webinar. NPLCC Science-Management Webinar: Sea level rise adaptation tools
for San Juan archipelago & Salish Sea
12/14-12/18 – Meeting, San Francisco, CA. AGU Fall Meeting
12/15-12/17 – Conference, Las Vegas, NV. Groundwater Expo 2015
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