ESCUELA DE
NEGOCIOS Y
HUMANIDADES
AGOSTO-DICIEMBRE 2013
Strategic Foresight
(Prospectiva Estratégica)
RI3004
1. GENERAL INFORMATION
Class: Strategic Foresight
Code: RI3005
Group: 1
Class time: Thursday 5:30 – 8:30pm
Class Room: Negotiation Room (Administrative Building)
Platform: Blackboard 9 (http://cursos.itesm.mx/)
2. PROFESSOR’S INFORMATION
Name: Dr. Jonathan Luckhurst
Email: jon.luckhurst@itesm.mx
Location: ENH1, edificio admvo., segundo piso. Tel. ext. 2153.
Office hours: Monday and Wednesday, 8:30-9:30am.
3. CLASS OBJECTIVE
Upon completion of this course, students will have a theoretical and practical
knowledge of strategic foresight. This implies being able to understand the importance
of strategic contingency planning to deal effectively with challenges and opportunities
of the present and future.
CLASS METHODOLOGY
Educational Model: Based on the institutional educational model that states that
students will have an active role in the learning process, it is expected from students to
prepared for every class and do previous research on the topics. Every student is
expected to actively participate in class.
Methodology: Class will be conducted base on readings and student participation.
Cases, simulations and exercises will be used as tools to exemplify the theory.
4. CLASS RULES
Academic and conduct rules for all ENH students:
Honesty: Chapter IX, Student Academic Rules
Attendance and Evaluation: Chapter V, Student Academic Rules
Discipline and behavior: Chapters IX and X, Students Academic Rules
It is expected from students to actively participate in class: electronic devices should
only be used for class-related tasks with the professor’s consent.
DATE
1. Aug. 15
SCHEDULED CLASS TOPIC, READING AND ASSIGNMENTS
Introduction: ‘Strategic Foresight’ for contingency-planning and future scenarios
EXERCISE TOPIC: What could be the 10 major trends or events in international
relations over the next 10 years?
2. Aug. 22
Structure, agency, context – a bit of theory won’t hurt
READINGS:
Hopf, T. (2010) “The Logic of Habit in International Relations”, European Journal of
International Relations, 16(4), 539-561.
Checkel, J. (2012) “Norm Entrepreneurship: Theoretical and Methodological
Challenges”, 1-10. Memo for workshop at University of Oxford on international norms
and ‘norm entrepreneurship’.
1) Forecasting, strategy and ‘Strategic Foresight’;
2) The significance of complex interdependence
READING FOR TOPIC 1: Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005) “Advantages and
disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight”, International Journal of
Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239.
READING FOR TOPIC 2: Keohane, R. & Nye, J. (2000) “Globalization: What’s New?
What’s Not? (And So What?)”, Foreign Policy, 118, pp.104-19.
3. Aug. 29
4. Sept. 5
5. Sept. 12
(1ST PARTIAL
ESSAY TO BE
HANDED IN
THIS DATE)
6. Sept. 19
7. Sept. 26
8. Oct. 3
Lessons of the past and present for future-planning: the world economic crisis
READING: Frieden, J., Pettis, M., Rodrik, D. & Zedillo, E. (2012) After the Fall: The
Future of Global Cooperation, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 14. London:
Centre for Economic Policy Research. (READ CHAPTERS 2, 3 & 4, pp.5-31)
1) The impact and ‘meaning’ of crises;
2) “Events, dear boy, events” (Harold Macmillan)
READING FOR TOPIC 1: Widmaier, W. Blyth, M. & Seabrooke, L. (2007) “Exogenous
Shocks or Endogenous Constructions? The Meaning of Wars and Crises”, International
Studies Quarterly, 51, 747-759.
READING FOR TOPIC 2: Anderson, L. (2011) “Demystifying the Arab Spring”, Foreign
Affairs, May/June.
Prospects for international economic cooperation
READING: Frieden, J., Pettis, M., Rodrik, D. & Zedillo, E. (2012) After the Fall: The
Future of Global Cooperation, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 14. London:
Centre for Economic Policy Research. (READ CHAPTERS 7 & 8, pp.61-82)
Why isn’t Mexico rich? (and what can be done to improve its position in the world?)
READING: Hanson, G. (2010) “Why isn’t Mexico Rich?” Journal of Economic
Literature, 48(4), 987-1004.
Key security risks in the world: contingency planning
READING: Nye, J. (2011) “Nuclear Lessons for Cyber Security?” Strategic Studies
9. Oct. 10
10. Oct. 17
11. Oct. 24
(2ND PARTIAL
ESSAY TO BE
HANDED IN
THIS DATE)
12. Oct. 31
13. Nov. 7
14. Nov. 14
15. Nov. 21
16. Nov 28
Quarterly, Winter.
The end of American leadership and the liberal international order?
READINGS:
Mueller, J. & Stewart, M. (2012) “The Terrorism Delusion: America’s Overwrought
Response to September 11”, International Security, 37(1), 81-110.
Obama, B. (2007) “Renewing American Leadership”, Foreign Affairs, July/August.
The European Union: how did it go wrong, and can it be fixed?
READING: Featherstone, K. (2011) “The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis and EMU: A
Failing State in a Skewed Regime”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 49(2), 193-217.
The prospects for authoritarianism
READING: Stepan, A. & Linz, J. (2013) “Democratization Theory and the ‘Arab Spring’”,
Journal of Democracy, 24(2), 15-30.
1) China’s past, present, and future role in the world
2) The BRICS
READINGS:
Ikenberry, J. (2008) “The Rise of China and the Future of the West. Can the Liberal
System Survive?”, Foreign Affairs, 87(1), 23-37.
Luckhurst, J. (2013, forthcoming) “Building Cooperation between the BRICS and
Leading Industrialized States”, Latin American Policy, 4(2), 264-281.
1) A G2, G20, or G-Zero world?
READINGS:
Bremner, I & Roubini, N. (2011) “A G-Zero World: The New Economic Club will
Produce Conflict, Not Cooperation”, Foreign Affairs, January.
Cooper, A. (2010) “The G20 as an improvised crisis committee and/or a contested
‘steering committee’ for the world”, International Affairs, 86(3), 741-757.
The challenges of global demographic change, environmental sustainability &
economic growth
READING: Hockett, R., Alpert, D. and Roubini, N. (2012) “The Way Forward: Moving
from the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness.”
Cornell Legal Studies.
1) The Millennium Development Goals and beyond
2) Conclusion to the course
READING: Stiglitz, J. (2002b) “Participation and Development: Perspectives from the
Comprehensive Development Paradigm”, Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 16382.
Final Exam
Attendance: It is expected for all students to be in class on time. Attendance will be called at the
beginning of class. If the student is not present, it will be considered an absence. There is no justification
for absences.
Assignments: All students are expected to do the reading before getting to class. Students will have to
summit their essays in the established due date in order to be graded. If the assignment is not given on
time, it will not be graded. All assignments to be submitted in hard copy during class time.
Honesty: Any kind of plagiarism or cheating –in essays, assignments, quizzes or any other type of class
work – will be considered an academic dishonesty and will go on record. Having an academic dishonesty
in a partial will translate into having a cero as a monthly grade. Having an academic dishonesty in final
work will automatically translate into a cero for the whole semester.
Responsibility: Everyone is expected to be responsible for their own class work, participation,
attendance and conduct. Each and every task or assignment is designed to help you benefit from the
class. It is a personal decision to take advantage of it or not.
Conduct: Cell phones and any other kind of communication devices are not to be used in class. If so, it is
a professor’s prerogative to take it away. It is disrespectful to have the mobile ringing and more so to
answer it. Please do not do it. Also, laptop computers, tablets, etc. are permitted in class when indicated
by the professor. If a student recurs in using a device when is not allowed, the professor will establish an
appropriate sanction.
Any kind of disrespectful behavior will not be tolerated in class. To have more information on your
rights and duties, please check the student’s rules at:
http://www.itesm.mx/dae/rga/presentacion.htm
Note: The activities scheduled are tentative and may change due to unexpected events or situations. The professor
could also make arrangements to it, if it is consider necessary.
5. EVALUATION CRITERIA
First partial = 20% of total
grade
Second partial = 30% of
total grade
Final Exam = 30%.
Participation grade = 20%.
(Hence final exam + course
participation = 50%)
Short, 3-page essay
analyzing/critiquing one of
the readings covered in the
first four weeks of the
course. An oral ‘exam’ to
check students’
understanding of the
readings, BUT this will
contribute to the final
participation grade.
A group essay (groups of 3,
or 4 with more pages if
professor agrees) of 8
pages on a topic given by
the professor. An oral
‘exam’ to check students’
understanding of the
readings, BUT this will
contribute to the final
participation grade.
Open-answer/Short-essay
style exam questions; students
given choice but answer one.
40 minutes to write in class.