VULNERABILITY OF EL SALVADOR
TO EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Extreme events and their attribution to climate change.
Sea level rise and its impacts
The environmental vulnerability in El Salvador
Weather patterns and their impact on the country.
Impact of the environment on military facilities and operations
Expanding on the Aforementioned Points
DEVELOPMENT
1. EXTREME EVENTS AND THEIR ATTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The report on extreme events (cases) of the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate
Change (IPCC) of 2012 concludes that there is a medium-sized chance that the anthropogenic
influences have contributed to the intensification of extreme precipitation to a global scale; and
in the future the droughts will intensify in some areas, including Central America, due to
reductions in the rain and/or increases in the evapotranspiration.
According to the above mentioned report, changes in extreme circumstances can be
associated with the changes in the average, the variance or the form of the distributions of
probability or all these indicators as a whole. Also, it is considered that some climatic changes
such as droughts or moisture can be the result from an accumulation of events that form
individually and are not necessary “extreme“. It is observed that the natural variability will keep
on being an important factor in future extreme changes, in addition to the effect of the climate
changes associated with anthropogenic activities (IPCC, 2012).
In this regard, it is important to monitor current trends of change in the media and in the
variability at the same time as the developing scenarios of climate change that are used to
estimate future trends and their potential impacts.
At the international level there is evidence of long-term tropical storm patterns, especially
in the Atlantic. Now, the storms that have a moderate duration also have a possible fluctuation
based upon the decade, having changed since the 60’s and reaching its historic peak in recent
years. Currently, the scientific community is paying close attention to the signs that this indicator
may be coming out of its historic range in the next few years. (See figure No. 3 first five
countries affected by extreme weather events in 2011).
In terms of the intensity of these phenomena there is increasingly more solid evidence
with regard to its relationship with global warming. (See Figure No. 4 global climate risk index).
It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed about 20 times more heat than the atmosphere
during the last half a century, causing higher temperatures in shallow and deep waters. With
cases such as those in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea that are influencing the climate of
Central America, its surface temperatures have been rising over the last hundred years. This
contributes to the greater intensity of tropical cyclones over the ocean.
GERMANWATCH: THE FIRST FIVE COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME
CLIMATIC EVENTS IN 2011.
DEATHS
DEATHS BY
100,000
HABITANTS
LOSES
(MILLIONS OF $
PPP)
LOSES
(PERCENTAGE OF
GDP)
Thailand
892
1.39
75,474
12.53
Cambodia
247
1.64
1,049
3.10
Pakistan
585
0.33
5,809
1.19
El Salvador
35
0.69
1,645
3.69
Philippines
1,659
1.73
1,064
0.27
Figure Number 1 first five countries affected by extreme climatic events in 2011
GERMANWATCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA:
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISK INDEX
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
El Salvador
34
123
112
91
1
36
Guatemala
1
102
52
34
53
2
Honduras
7
44
33
20
65
5
Nicaragua
21
120
3
24
57
35
Costa Rica
33
128
30
28
111
20
Panamá
65
41
119
30
111
75
Figure Number. 2 Global Climate Change Risk Index
2. SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS IMPACTS
In fact, along the coast of El Salvador there have been significant changes recorded that are
associated with climate change (see Figure No. 5 annual average temperature since 1980 until
2000). In recent decades the average sea level rose approximately 7.8 cm, at an average rate of
1.3 mm per year. In regards to the waves, changes have been detected in the average height of
waves of 28 cm (4.7 mm per year) with changes in the environment of 0.12 ° N, by year on the
mean direction of the wave energy and over 20 cm in extreme wave heights in the last three
decades (approximately 2 cm per year).
The extreme levels of the sea, also increased by 30 cm in the last six decades, at a rate of 0.5
cm/year.
Figure Number. 3 Annual average temperature from 1980 to 2000
3. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY IN EL SALVADOR
Having the highest population density in the hemisphere, after Haiti, and a highly deforested
land, El Salvador increases the extent of the impact of extreme climate events, putting at risk
almost 90% of the population, 95% of the national territory and 90% of the GDP. With recent
scientific studies that prove the increase in the frequency, duration, intensity, and changes in the
spatial distribution of climatic phenomena related to changes in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean
systems, it is unfeasible to El Salvador to sustain growth and aspire to an economic development
without the adoption of a vision and practice of that adaptation.
The vulnerability of El Salvador from the impacts of climate change (see figure No. 1), has
an impact on a wide range of areas of life: in the mobility of people, health, production and food
security, construction and development of urban spaces and rural settlements, and the physical
infrastructure of road connectivity, just to mention a few. Understanding the different types and
levels of vulnerability, in terms of its exposure, sensitivity and responsiveness of the Armed
Forces and its institutions compared to the changes generated by the climate change is a
fundamental and complex task and for the society and the State, which cannot be underestimated.
Indicators of Environmental Vulnerability in El Salvador
o
o
o
o
o
Percentage of territory in a risk area
Percentage of the population that lives in risk zones
Percentage of GDP generates in risk areas
Proportion of the territory with high susceptibility to landslides
Proportion of the territory susceptible to floods
88.7.7% of the territory
95.4% of the population
96.4% of the GDP
38%
10%
(Figure Number 4 Indicators of vulnerability)
4. WEATHER PATTERNS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON THE COUNTRY
The location of the narrow isthmus of Central America between two great oceans, the Pacific
and Atlantic Oceans, exposes it to the changes that are formed in the weather systems with great
impact. For these purposes, there is already ample evidence of climatic variability on various
time scales, from intra-seasonal variability through long-term variability. This variability is
usually associated with phenomena that already produce impacts of important environmental and
socio-economic consequences that can be exacerbated by global warming and associated to
climate change. Several researchers in Latin America have identified signals related to variability
and/or the change in climatic conditions, particularly rainfall, temperature, oscillations of the
glaciers, general circulation and extreme events. Due to the increase in climate variability, the
pattern of temporal and spatial rainfall tends to present various anomalies, which affect an
increase in disasters linked to hydro-meteorological phenomena (see figure No. 2. Hydrometeorological extreme events between 1960-2010). What is being observed can be summed up
as follows:
 There are more frequent and intense extreme hydro-meteorological events
 The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is much more irregular.
 There are significant changes in the intensity, trajectory, and number of cyclonic systems
originated in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans that are increasing the intensity in some
situations.
 Temperatures of the ocean waters near Ocean Pacific and Atlantic have become more
extreme.
Figure Number 5. Extreme Hydro-meteorological events between 1960-2010. MARN
Also, between 1961 and 2011 there has been an extraordinary rise in temperature in the
surface water of the sea in the oceanic region of the Northern Tropical Atlantic, reaching the
highest values recorded over the past 50 years and with this, the of hurricane seasons in that
region have been extraordinary in intensity and number. Between the decades of the 1960’s to
the 1980’s El Salvador was directly affected by hurricanes and tropical storms; in the 1990’s it
was affected by four hurricanes and in the 2000's by seven. In two years, between November
2009 and October 2011 five events took place in which 250 people died. Three of these events
produced damages and losses of $1.3 billion (6% of GDP).
The flooding of crops and loss of infrastructure, is not the only problem. The drag of soils in
the higher parts of the basins accelerates the process of the sedimentation of rivers, natural and
artificial drainage, irrigation systems, dams, natural channels of mangroves and finally into the
ports on the coast are also associate problems. Recovering and ensuring the country's food
security and sustainable agro-livestock production capacity will be an increasingly distant
possibility if a response effort is not put in effect to such negative impacts of rainfall and
potential drought, by modifying the causes which are known. Already for the year 2008, the
MRNA showed that El Salvador had a very drastic lack of tree / vegetable coverage:




42% (170,299 hectares) the total of the areas prone to landslides
67% (23.406 hectares) of the margins of the main rivers (riparian forests)
64% of the main areas of water replenishment (387.630 hectares)
53 % of grounds of high slopes - classes VI and VII (567,296 hectares)
5. IMPACT OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON MILITARY FACILITIES AND
OPERATIONS
a) Impact of the environment on Military Operations
These can affect men, weapons, material and equipment to varying extents but inside military
planning climate change should be considered as a threat to the balance between access to energy
sources, and supplies. Also consider that there will be a major evacuation of civilians.
While the Armed Forces of El Salvador takes it as a safety issue, it also see it as an
environmental problem. In this context, "Green" changes made by other armies of the world are
stimulated for safety reasons and have nothing to do with concern for the environment or for the
people who suffer the impacts of climate change. This takes us back to a specific area of
environmental tasks for the armies: for example, requires initiatives to increase the use of
alternative fuels in military units with very high oil consumption.
The Armed Forces of El Salvador offers assistance to the population when disasters occur,
but also helps to reverse the effects of climate change with the establishment and maintenance of
forest nurseries in military units, running campaigns of reforestation, donates plants to public and
private institutions, it imparts a training environment to the staff on their own to the adaptation
and mitigation of the effects of climate change and supports control in the prevention and
liquidation of forest fires. It is necessary to take into account two important items to deal with
the threat:
1) Training
It is necessary to train constantly in efforts to be ready to deal with the extreme weather
events, training personnel in all levels to improve the capability of response to assist the
affected population by any climate event in our country, taking into account that we are
vulnerable to floods, earthquakes, hurricanes and other events.
2) Material and equipment.
In order to better support the population, the acquisition of materials and special
equipment is needed to be used by the Armed Forces in the search, rescue and evacuation
of the affected population, as well as the implementation of green technology.
b) Impact of the environment on military installations.
Thus far, a direct impact on our facilities caused by an extreme climate event, has not been
identified, however some vulnerabilities within the infrastructure which should be reinforced or
renovated have been identified.