Agriculture as key for regional integration and to tackle food insecurity in West Africa Abstract Agriculture is a major sector for West African economies. It is under-developed and is mostly rain-fed and therefore is exposed to climate fluctuations. The countries have committed themselves within the frame of CAAPD/ECOWAP to reach certain goals regarding the agricultural sector and to tackle food insecurity. Even, with CAADP/ECOWAP the food security situation remained alarming compared to the rest of the developing world. It is amazing that they have natural potentialities regarding improving agricultural production but the situation is still difficult. Thus, the countries have to review the implementation of the policies toward a very strong cooperation at regional level. Cooperating at regional level will enable them to achieve food self-sufficiency in the main foods and to do not rely mainly on food importations to feed the population. Key words: Agriculture, regional integration, climate change, food security, food selfsufficiency, under-nourishment Introduction Climate change constitutes currently a serious problem for the world. As the planet warms, rainfall patterns shift and extreme events such as droughts, floods, and forest fires become more frequent (World Bank, 2010). Thus, the agricultural production becomes uncertain and unpredictable, especially the one that relies mostly on rainfall. According to IPCC (WG2, 2007), warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperature, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. West Africa is considered one of the regions to be most affected by climate change (CalloConcha et al., 2012). According to these authors land degradation, increasing discrepancy between water demand supply and as a consequence, declining agricultural productivity, and subsequent changes in livelihoods are expected to occur in the rural areas. In general, the West African climate is governed by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) determined by the African monsoon1 (GEF-UNEP, 2002 in Callo-Concha et al., 2012) that produces two annual air masses oscillations: (a) the “monsoon” from south (equatorial Atlantic) to north (Sahara desert) causing moist conditions in the north through an unimodal rainy season between May and October reaching its maximum in July and August, and (b) the “northeast trade” wind from north to south occurring between October and April, a cold and dusty wind bringing rainfall to the south and leaving the north dry and hot; the influence of this period is known as Harmattan (Badini et al. 1997, Ouedraogo, 2004; Kpongor 2007; Kanchebe, 2010; in Callo-Concha et al., 2012). Agriculture is major sector for most Sub-Saharan countries. It contributed to 35% of the region’s GDP, up to 60% employment, and income generation (ECOWAS, 2009). Moreover, agricultural exports occupy a preeminent place in the West Africa’s external trade and agriculture is one of the major vehicles for regional market integration. Therefore, a well developed agriculture is important to achieve pro-poor economic growth to tackle food insecurity and attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). But, agricultural sector in most of the Sub-Saharan countries in general and in West Africa in particular is underdeveloped and is mainly rain-fed. Therefore, it is affected by any change in weather patterns. Food security is one of the greatest challenges of the world. Climate change impacts on food security will be worst in countries already suffering high levels of hunger and will worsen over time (Wheeler, and von Braun, 2013). Thus, people and communities who are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather now will become more vulnerable in the future and less resilient to climate shocks. As it could be difficult for the country individually to reach food sufficiency in each food, they could act collectively to reach it in order to reduce the food importation from abroad and to flight against food insecurity. They have inherited highly arbitrary political borders that vastly complicate current efforts to accelerate agricultural growth and reduce hunger (Haggblade, 2013). The countries individually could not tackle really the challenges. So, they could act together through regional coordination to afford the challenges. In this frame the whole Africa has developed the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) that is expected to be implemented by each country through regional integration. 1 Monsoon (from Arabic mowsim=season) is a seasonal reversing wind that leads to changes in precipitation. The monsoon, due to the difference in the thermal capacities between ocean and continental masses, provokes a humid, hot wind from the sea to the land that condensates due to cooler conditions on the land surface (sometimes highlands) as precipitation. In winter, the process is inverted, and winds blow from the land to the ocean (Callo-Concha et al., 2012). Following the introduction section, section 2 will be devoted to the content of CAADP/ECOWAP 2 , section 3 to food situation in West Africa, section 4 to the future challenges for West African agriculture, section 5 to policy implication and the last section to the conclusion. Content of ECOWAP/CAADP The Heads of States adopted at their 19 January 2005 meeting the Agricultural Policy of the West African States, ECOWAP, as an instrument for implementing CAADP. To foster agricultural development, in 2003 the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) launched CAADP (Zimmermann et al., 2009). The Conference of the Heads of States in Yamoussoukro in 2002 gave to ECOWAS, as the Regional Economic Community, the mandate to coordinate the implementation of the different components of NEPAD, notably its agricultural component (CAADP) (ECOWAS, 2009). The CAADP initiative takes a continent-wide view, but is expected to be implemented at regional levels. The goal of CAADP is to “help African countries reach a higher path of economic growth through agriculture-led development, which eliminates hunger, reduces poverty and food insecurity, and enables expansion of exports.” The original focus was to promote immediate interventions that best respond to the widely recognised crisis situation of African agriculture. Thus, CAADP had been cast to deliberately focus on investment in the three pillars that were deemed to make the earliest difference to African agriculture’s dire situation: i) sustainable land use, ii) rural infrastructure and trade related capacities, and iii) food security. Key principles and goals to be achieved within the frame of CAADP by each country by the year 2015 are: Improve the productivity of agriculture to attain an average annual growth rate of 6 percent, with particular attention to small-scale farmers, especially focusing on women. 2 Allocate 10 percent or more of their budget to agriculture. Have dynamic agricultural markets within countries and between regions. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Common Agricultural Policy Have integrated farmers into market economy and have improved access to markets to become a net exporter of agriculture products. Achieve a more equitable distribution of wealth. Be a strategic player in agricultural science and technology development. Practice environmentally sound production methods and have a culture of sustainable management of the natural resource base. Food situation before and after 2005 in West Africa Despite the implementation of ECOWAP since 2005, ECOWAS countries continue to face food insecurity. Proportion of undernourished remained relatively at high level compared to the situation of the rest of the developing world. This is depicted by the table 1 which shows the evolution of undernourishment in the whole, Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people undernourished has increased from 220 million in 2007-09 to around 239 million in 2010-12 (FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012). Before 2007, this number was relatively low. That means even with CAADP African countries are still facing food insecurity issues. The fingers of the situation are also depicted in the tables 2 and 3. The countries that have made a positive change so far regarding the prevalence of undernourishment are Benin, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. Even with a decrease of the proportion of undernourished people in these countries, the situation is still alarming compare to the fingers of the rest of developing world. Table 1: Undernourishment in Africa Africa Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Number (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment 1990199920042007201092 2001 06 09 12 175 205 210 220 239 27.30% 25.30% 23.10% 22.60% 22.90% 5 5 5 4 4 3.80% 3.30% 3.10% 2.70% 2.70% 170 200 205 216 234 32.80% 30% 27.20% 26.50% 26.80% Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012 Table 2: Prevalence of undernourishment and progress towards the World Food Summit (WFS) and the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets in developing countries Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012 Table 3: Undernourishment in West Africa Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d'Ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo West Africa without Cape Verde, Gambia and Guinea Bissau Proportion of undernourished in total population (%) 19992004- 2007- 2010- Change 1990-92 2001 06 09 12 so far 22.4 16.4 13.1 10.8 8.1 -63.8 22.9 26.4 25.8 24.4 25.9 13.1 13.7 19.9 19.6 19.3 40.5 18.4 16.6 20.6 9.5 17 32.9 25.3 36.9 19.3 21.7 41.9 32.8 34.9 21.5 25.8 10.2 24.2 41.1 25.2 29.6 14.7 20 6.8 16.9 35.5 20.4 29.6 9.5 13.6 7.3 16.5 33.1 19.8 27.39167 23.56667 19.075 17.1 21.4 5.8 <5 na 15.5 17.3 31.4 7.9 12.6 8.5 20.5 28.8 16.5 Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012 Besides the undernourishment ECOWAS countries are mostly ranked in the group of low human development countries except Cape Verde and Ghana that are among the medium human development countries. Which situation means that these countries are among the 56.2 -6 -4.6 -68.8 -65.9 -56 -5.5 -31.3 -49.7 poorest around the world even though they have natural resources like oil, gas and uranium. They have also a very large basin (Niger basin) they could use to develop their agriculture. The basin has an agricultural potential of nearly 2.5 millions of ha of which 20% were exploited (ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD, 2008). It has among other a partial and non permanent navigability over around 3800 km of the main stream and of its main affluents. In Benin, the Niger basin covers around 42 % of the country size, but agriculture is mostly rain-fed with use most of the time of local seeds. These countries are not using yet the potentialities of their lands, which leads to their poorer situation. The analysis of the Human Development Index (HDI) shows mainly a high correlation between the indices of the countries (table 4). Therefore, the countries have to coordinate their action in order to tackle poverty issue through agriculture since it is a major sector. However, HDI of Senegal is negatively correlated with HDI of Cote d’Ivoire, Niger, Sierra Leone and Togo. The negative correlation is relatively high for Cote d’Ivoire and Niger, which means that the improvement of the situation in Senegal could lead to degradation in Cote d’Ivoire and Niger, ceteris paribus. But, it is worth to note that as it is just a correlation analysis that may not be the case and a deeper analysis has to be done before concluding. Thus, all countries have to fulfil the commitments regarding CAADP/ECOWAP. Agricultural policies should be a key instrument of the regional integration. It is necessary to set a strong cooperation by reinforcing the regional institution in order to oblige each country to reach the targets. Moreover, it is not sufficient to allocate at least 10 % of the budget to agricultural sector. They have to be sure that the funds reach effectively farmers. That means they have to be sure that the funds do not serve for bureaucratic expenses. Table 4: Correlation between HDI indices for the period 1980-2012 Benin Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d'Ivoire The Gambia Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d'Ivoire Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Niger 1 0.982 1 0.993 0.997 1 0.778 0.645 0.701 1 0.655 0.786 0.737 0.034 1 Ghana 0.969 0.998 0.991 0.597 0.822 1 Guinea Guinea Bissau 1 0.982 0.993 0.778 0.655 0.969 1 0.866 0.945 0.912 0.359 0.945 0.963 0.866 1 Liberia 0.982 1 0.997 0.645 0.786 0.998 0.982 0.945 1 1 0.982 0.993 0.778 0.655 0.969 1 0.866 0.982 Mali Mali 1 Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Togo Niger 0.792 0.663 0.717 1 0.058 0.616 0.792 0.381 0.663 0.792 1 Nigeria 0.998 0.992 0.999 0.736 0.702 0.983 0.998 0.896 0.992 0.998 0.752 1 Senegal Sierra Leone 0 0.189 0.115 -0.629 0.756 0.249 0 0.5 0.189 0 -0.61 0.064 1 0.927 0.842 0.88 0.956 0.327 0.807 0.929 0.617 0.842 0.929 0.962 0.903 -0.37 1 Togo 0.997 0.963 0.981 0.827 0.59 0.945 0.997 0.822 0.963 0.997 0.84 0.99 -0.08 0.96 Source: The author based on data from UNDP, 2013 Future challenges for West African agriculture The scenarios for future climate in Africa show many fingers. For our scenarios, future annual warming across Africa ranges from below 0.20 C decade-1 (B1-low scenario) to over 0.50 C decade-1 (A2-high) (Hulme et al., 2001). The warming is greatest over the interior semi-arid tropical margins of the Saharan and central southern Africa, and least in equatorial latitudes and costal environments. According to them, futures changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. Under the B1-low scenario, relatively few regions in Africa experience a change in either DJF or JJA rainfall that exceeds the 1 sigma level of natural rainfall variability simulated by the HadCM2 model. The exceptions are parts of equatorial East Africa where rainfall increases by 5 to 30% in DJF and decreases by 5 to 10% in JJA. Some areas of Sahelian West Africa and the Mahgreb also experience “significant” rainfall decreases in JJA season under the B1-low scenario. These changes in climate system are predicted to affect agricultural production. As illustration, Kurukulasuriya et al. (2006), by using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries (a cross-sectional approach) estimated how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. The results have shown that revenues fall with warming for dry land crops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. As agriculture is mainly rain-fed, it will be affected by future climate conditions depicted by the scenarios. Without relevant policies farmers that are already mostly poor may develop a strong risk averse behaviour. That situation could lead to a vicious circle of poverty and then to a trap of under-development. Moreover, use of fertilizer, improved varieties, tractor is still underdeveloped. The cropping systems in West Africa are mostly characterized by low yields and declining productivity, high risk due to climatic and market uncertainties, labor 1 constraints (mainly for soil preparation and weeding), low use of external inputs (fertilizer, improved hybrids, animal and mechanical power), weak extension services, poor transport and communication infrastructure, and therefore strong orientation towards subsistence (Yilma, 2006, Kpongor, 2007, Ntare et al., 2007, Schindler, 2009, in Callo-Concha et al., 2012). Thus, governments have to fill this technology gap in the agricultural sector in order to benefit for the natural opportunities of their lands. Policy implication ECOWAS countries have to choose main crops per groups of countries in order to attain food sufficiency regionally, but by taking into account the specificity of each country due to the fact that farmers in developing countries produce jointly for selfconsumption and for the market. They will not accept to shift from the production of the main crops they used to consume for another one. They have to design and implement regional micro-finance for farmers. This could be done by thinking about a regional agricultural bank that will work in each country and finance really farmers since they are not able to get access to micro-credit. Microcredit should be linked to the main produces per country in order to push farmers to produce them. They have to set up a strong regional institution toward agricultural coordination that will supervise each country regarding the fulfilment of the commitment periodically. This could be done by reinforcing ECOWAS. They have to design and implement regional investment toward the use of the potentialities of the basins. Conclusion Agriculture is a major sector for West African economies and could constitute a key for regional integration. West Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its ecological fragility combined with institutional weakness and political and economic instability. Thus, climate change is affecting the West African economies and appropriate policies have to be taken in order to tackle the problem that is exacerbating food insecurity issue. These policies could be taken collectively by the countries in order to be efficient. Therefore, a very strong regional coordination of the agricultural policies is necessary through the well implementation of CAADP/ECOWAP commitments by reinforcing the regional institution. References Callo-Concha, D., Gaiser, T., and Ewert, F. 2012. Farming and cropping systems in the West African Sudanian Savanna; WASCAL research area: Northern Ghana, Southwest Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. ZEF Working Paper 100. Bonn, Germany. ECOWAS. 2009. Regional Partnership Compact for the Implementation of ECOWAP/CAADP. ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD. 2008. 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