THE
PROBLEM
IMPLEMENTATION:
OF
THE
EUROPEAN
IMPACT
OF
MIGRATION
GERMANY
POLICY
ON
ITS
PROCESSES AND OUTCOMES.
Dmitriy Burykin
This paper explores a very important problem of migration policy
formulation and implementation at the level of the European Union as a global
actor in public policy. Since Maastricht Treaty establishing the main institutions
and bodies of the EU was signed in 1992, countries of the European Union have
been seeking to elaborate a new common strategy for managing migration and
integration of migrants into societies. Scientific communities could not ignore this
evident trend. As a result, quite a huge amount of articles have been published (for
instance: E.Haddad, 2010; N.Reslow, 2012; R. Parkes, 2009; A. Geddes, 2005; E.
Carmel, 2013). The main focus of all these articles is on practical issues arising
during attempts to introduce new initiative in the common European policy.
However, there is a lack of research, which would provide theoretical
criteria of EU migration policy formulation and evaluate the impact of EUmembers on its process. Research on this topic is time-consuming, formulation of
theoretical assumptions requires profound knowledge of the issue. Moreover, there
are many actors which are able to influence the decision-making about migration
policy inside the country.
Thus, the aim of the paper is to formulate the theoretical criteria about
EU migration policy formulation and trace the impact of EU-members on this
process. Moreover, it would be beneficial for the research to trace the main
directions of European migration policy. This paper investigates the practical
cases of the leading countries in the European Union – Germany, France and the
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. There are several countries
in Europe which have strong background in regulating migration. Germany, France
and the United Kingdom could be definitely included in this list. That is why they
are able to contribute significantly to the process of EU migration policy
formulation, to exchange experience with other countries
This paper will contribute to answering the following questions: common
European migration policy: myth of reality? Which theoretical criteria should be
basis of migration policy in Europe? How measures should be implemented to
improve the situation with migrants and avoid unrest?
Increasing migration flows from developing to developed countries is one of
the new challenges the processes of globalization pose for countries with high level
of economic and political development. Despite of several attempts to regulate
migration, large migration inflows from Africa, Asia are still usual for European
countries. The European Union is a good example of intergovernmental
organization with high level of integration. That’s why all the problems in one
country can have some negative effect on the development process in other
countries-members of the Union.
However, despite of some attempts to elaborate migration policy at the level
of European Union as a global actor in international relations, many questions such
as integration of newcomers and combating illegal migration have been addressed
on the level of states for a long period of time. Now it is apparent that European
countries have the same problems with managing uncontrolled migration,
integrating newcomers and it is common interest for European states to have some
instruments of influence at the level of the EU.
There could be specified three main directions of European migration policy.
Asia and North Africa. There are different countries of Asia where migrants
come from. For example, there is huge inflow of migrants from Turkey to
Germany, from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – to the Great Britain. Migrants
from Turkey to Germany are becoming real actor in German interior policy. The
number of Turkish migrants in Germany amounts to about 2,5 mln. They are
occupied generally in the sphere of services, fast food. In the Great Britain,
according to the data provided by the National Service for Statistics, the biggest
number of migrants came from India. The third place with big advantage is taken
by the immigrants from Pakistan. The 5-6 place went to the immigrants from
Bangladesh. The hugest number of immigrants go from North Africa to the nearest
EU- destination point. Usually, they come to Italy of Spain and become a real
problem both for local and EU-authorities. In fact, it is quite difficult for German
and other economies of countries of the EU to function without immigrants.
However, the main problem on this direction is that immigrants coming from these
regions are mostly muslims. It is absolutely possible for muslims to integrate into
the European society. However, some immigrants coming from these countries,
ignore the opportunities for economic and sociocultural integration, which is made
available to them by the state authorities responsible for conducting migration
policy. For example, in London people can meet Muslim patrols which control the
observation of Sharia laws.
Africa to the south from Sahara desert. Countries of that region are usually
former English and French colonies except several territories which belonged to
Portugal and Belgium. Immigrants from this region come to the former
metropolies for the search of better life, since their countries are mostly
underdeveloped. Immigrants from Africa to the south from Sahara desert normally
speak the language of the country of destination and and therefore have more
chances for successful integration into the European society. The problem of this
direction is racism. Despite of fight against racism, there are still usually illegal
movements which members attack immigrants on the basis that they don’t belong
to the race the attackers do. Another problem is about transport such immigrants
can use for achieving the European Union. There is quite high death toll because of
that immigrants use just boats to cross the sea.
Eastern Europe and former Soviet countries. In this group it is necessary to
distinguish between immigration from former Soviet countries (Russia, Ukraine,
the Republic of Belarus, etc.) and countries of Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech
Republic, etc.). Baltic states formally belong to the former Soviet countries but in
2004 they became a part of the European Union. Despite of restrictive measures
against migration from new EU-members, taken by most of countries, the Great
Britain, for example, didn’t approve such measures. As a result, there were the
hugest migration inflow to the United Kingdom from Poland and Lithuania. In
fact, there are not so many problems with the integration of newcomers from this
region due to similarities in cultural background.
Germany is a country with huge experience in regulating migration. It could
definitely become a leader in elaborating European common policy. Migration to
Germany has a long historical background. As a result of World War II German
industries and cities have been heavily damaged. About 9 mln of people have been
lost dead in the greatest battles. It was apparent that German labor force will not be
able to cope with arising tasks to rebuild national economy. Therefore, Germany
desperately needed labor force to reconstruct destroyed cities and give a new birth
for the national economy. New independent German government headed by
Konrad Adenauer concluded treaties with some Mediterranean countries (Italy,
Spain) for hiring labor force (so called Gastarbeiter). In 1974 the program of hiring
labor force has been stopped but more than 1/3 of immigrants refused to leave
Germany. Moreover, their families moved to Germany. In 60th years of ХХ century
the main inflows shifted from European countries to Asia. Nowadays the number
of German residents with immigration background is more than 15 mln. Germany
is experiencing more or less the same problems as other members of the Union:
economic, social and cultural integration of migrants; legislation is the sphere of
migration policy which should be improved; migrants which are not integrated and
therefore may possess threat for the European common security.
German behavior strategies and possible outcomes
This part of term paper is dedicated to German strategies in responding the
challenges which are currently on European migration policy agenda. European
states, political actors and other interested parties are striving to have impact on
public policy formulation and decision-making in the sphere of migration control
and integration of newcomers. It is possible to formulate and evaluate all possible
strategies through game theory models where one player is Germany and other
players are different depending on the situation of the game. However, using one
theory for describing actions probably will not be enough. Therefore, for every
game theory outcome it is necessary to look for real facts of German or EU-actions
confirming it.
First of all, some basic assumptions of game theory should be explained.
Modern game theory started with the work of John von Neumann in 1940s. Later
this theory have been developed and modified by many scholars in 1950s. Game
theory has been recognized as an important tool for predicting behavior of actors
and possible outcomes of their interaction. This theory continues to be important
nowadays. Evidence is getting Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 2014
by game theorist Jean Tirole. Nowadays game theory is widely used in such
spheres of life as economics, biology, political science, psychology, logic,
computer science. No doubts, that we can apply this approach for migration policy,
as there are players and relations between them which lead to possible outcomes
and payoffs.
There are quite many definitions of game theory. The main sense is that
game theory is a science of strategy and strategic decision-making. University
Professor of Economics at Princeton University and Avinash Dixit and Professor
of Management at Yale University’s School of Management Barry Nalebuff
defined game theory as «attempt to determine mathematically and logically the
actions that players should take to secure the best outcomes for themselves in a
wide array of games»1. Let’s consider this definition and try to identify the main
features of game theory (or, in other words, interactive decision theory). If a
researcher is intending to use game theory in his or her thesis, it is necessary to
know that game theory presupposes:
 building mathematical model of players’ interaction;
 rational players who will definitely try to maximize their payoff during the
game;
1
Game theory. URL: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GameTheory.html#abouttheauthor
 possessing good background knowledge of player’s position to identify the
strategies and the system of players’ preferences;
 solution of the game could be found through looking for strictly and weakly
dominant strategies or through Nash equilibrium.
While describing and evaluating the game, the unified plan will be used:
 short description of the game;
 players;
 identifying strategies;
 identifying the system of preferences for every player (using row from 0 to
10, where 0-least desirable, 10- most desirable);
 combining game model;
 possible solutions of the game.
First game we decided to design is meant to answer how many immigrants
Germany really need to cover the losses of ageing population. The problem of
Germany is similar to the most countries, which is agreed to be named
«developed». Very low birth rate in combination with high life expectancy due to
developed healthcare service lead to a very serious demographic problem, which is
affecting German labour market already now. According to the data by Institute for
Employment Research (IAB) of the German Federal Employment Agency (DBA)
the number of labour force (in Germany, from 15 to 66 years) will be decreasing
till 2060 significantly. In case «without migration» the number of labour force in
Germany will amount to less than 30 mln. by 2060 comparing to almost 55 mln. in
20152. According to the data, even high migration inflow can only halt the
decrease in labour force numbers and economic decline as consequence of it. IAB
in its research makes an attempt to predict migration saldo in Germany taking into
account several conditions:
 migration saldo is difference between immigrants and emigrants;
2
Projektion von Erwerbsbevölkerung bis zum Jahr 2060. IAB Forschungsbericht. 10/2013.
 emigration from Germany is calculated on the condition that every year in
average 0,22% of all men and 0,18% of all women leave the territory of
Germany;
 immigration depends on socio-economic situation in the country;
Researchers from IAB proposed 6 variants, which are presented in the
following table.
1
Immigration
Emigration
low
2
low
medium
3
4
high
low
5
High
Medium
6
High
Based on these variants and calculations the following table is presented.
Saldo 2012
Saldo 2060
Annual
average from
2012 to 2060
1
162953
142988
135478
2
32307
99609
69931
3
-121876
66853
17850
(till 2022
negative)
4
425873
209215
263867
5
278543
136915
164090
6
103926
86472
84577
In this game our players will be German government and migrants. German
government can control immigration inflow by imposing quotas. So, government
can impose high quotas, medium quotas or low quotas. Immigrants can decide to
go or not to go to Europe. The system of preferences in this game is presented in
the table.
German government
Immigrants
 high quotas (10);
 to immigrate(10);
 medium quotas(5);
 not to immigrate(0);
 low quotas(2);
For Germany imposing high quota is better than other variants, since it
helps halt the number of labour force. Immigrants should be usually interested in
immigration. If they do not want to immigrate, all strategies of German
government are just indifferent for them. Game model could be presented as
follows:
Immigr.
To
immigrate
Not to
immigrate
High
quotas
10*,10*
0*,0
Medium
quotas
5,5*
0*,0
Low
quotas
2,2*
0*,0
Ger.gov.
This game could be solved by finding Nash equilibrium:
 If German government adopts the strategy «to impose high quotas», the best
response from immigrants will be «to immigrate»;
 If German government adopts the strategy «to impose medium quotas», the
best response from immigrants will be «to immigrate»;
 If German government adopts the strategy «to impose low quotas», the best
response from immigrants will be «to immigrate»;
So, it is clear that for immigrants «to immigrate» is strictly dominant strategy.
 If immigrants choose the strategy to «immigrate», the best response from the
government will be «to impose high quotas»;
 If immigrants choose the strategy «not to immigrate», it does not really
matter how will government respond to this strategy.
In this game there is only one Nash equilibrium (in italics). Both parties
receive the highest payoff when they cooperate. High migration inflows help
Germany address the problem of ageing population and decrease in labour force
number. High quotas, introduced by the German government, encourage
immigrants to immigrate, which brings without any doubts benefits both for host
and sending country.
Second game is connected with the question of migrants’ integration. Here
by integration of migrants we mean economic and socio-cultural integration. The
players in this game will be German government and immigrants which are still
coming in huge number to Europe. There are four possible strategies both for
Germany and for immigrants. They are presented in the table 1 together with the
system of preferences for two parties.
Table 1
Possible strategies of migrants’ integration
German government
Immigrants
 fully integrate immigrants (10)
 to be fully integrated (10)
 integrate economically (5)
 to be integrated economically (8)
 integrate socio-culturally (5)
 to be integrated socio-culturally
 abandon integration (1)
(5)
 abandon integration (1)
It is essential for Germany to fully integrate newcomers. This thesis can be
confirmed by Plan of Integration (Integrationsplan - NIP) issued by German
government in 2007. Plan of integration suggests measures and mechanisms for
better integration of newcomers. In the beginning of this Plan the researcher can
find a speech by German Kanzler Angela Merkel to the German community. She
argues that only by using complex approach in integration of newcomers it is
possible to use a migrants’ tremendous potential, energy and possibilities for the
designated purpose. After examining the Plan it becomes clear that both economic
and socio-cultural integrations are important for German government3. However, if
immigrant is integrated only socio-culturally (command of German language,
acceptance of religious differences, complying with European values), it is still not
the best solution, since lack of job or not very large social benefits undermine
immigrants’ belief in «better» life in Europe and create basis for their
radicalization. Vice versa, if migrants are not integrated socio-culturally.
Abandoning the topic of integration is harmful for both parties. Migrants, who are
2007
Neue
Integrationsplan.
Neue
Wege
–
Neue
http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/DE/Publikation/IB/nationalerintegrationsplan.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3
3
Chancen
URL:
not integrated into community of the host country, pose a real danger for the state.
They increase crime rate, take part in shadow economy.
For immigrants the system of preferences could be described as almost the
same. The only difference in preferences is that immigrants attach more
importance to economic integration. It could be connected with the prior motives
to come to Germany and to the European Union in general. Immigrants come to
the EU in their aspiration to look for better life, to earn money in order to provide
for their families, to live in economically relatively stable country with developed
social welfare system.
After identifying players, their system of preferences it is essential to
combine the game model.
Immigr.
Ger.gov.
To integrate
fully
To be
integrated
fully
10*,10*
To be
To be
Abandon
integrated
integrated
integration
economically socioculturally
5*,10*
5*,10*
0,0
To integrate
economically
0,0
5*,8*
0,0
0,0
To integrate
socioculturally
0,0
0,0
5*,5*
0,0
Abandon
integration
0,0
0,0
0,0
1*,1*
In this model the row player will be German government, immigrants –
column player. 0 and 0 in positions of row and column players mean that players
get nothing from this particular outcome. This game should be decided by finding
all Nash equilibria:
 If German government adopts strategy «to integrate fully», the best
responses from immigrants will be «to be integrated fully», «to be integrated
economically» or «to be integrated socio-culturally;
 If German government adopts strategy «to integrate economically», the best
response from immigrants will be «to be integrated economically»;
 If German government adopts strategy «to integrate socio-culturally», the
best response from immigrants will be «to be integrated socio-culturally»
 If German government adopts strategy «to abandon integration», the best
response from immigrants will be «to abandon integration»;
 If immigrants follow strategy «to be integrated fully», the best response
from German government will be «to integrate fully»;
 If immigrants follow strategy «to be integrated economically», the best
responses from German government will be «to integrate economically» or
«to integrate fully»;
 If immigrants follow strategy «to be integrated socio-culturally», the best
responses from German government will be «to integrate socio-culturally»
or «to integrate fully»;
 If immigrants follow strategy «to abandon integration», the best responses
from German government will be «to abandon integration».
To sum up the results of this game, there are 6 Nash equilibria (in italics).
This game clearly shows the outcomes of any decision by the German government
regarding integration. The highest payoff the German government receives will be
in case of taking the strategy of full integration. However, taking this strategy by
the government does not necessarily mean that immigrants will decide to integrate
fully into society. Actually, in this case they can split. Some part of immigrants
will integrate more or less fully; other two parts will choose to integrate either
economically or socio-culturally. It is quite dangerous if immigrants choose to be
integrated either economically or socio-culturally. If immigrants decide to be
integrated only economically, they have a huge potential to bring their own culture
to Europe. If they have radical views, which contradict to European values, it may
lead to crimes (such as massacre in Charlie Hebdo, where killers have been very
good economically integrated). If immigrants are integrated only socio-culturally,
they will definitely have problems with money and it may result in raising crime
level. Small part of immigrants can decide to abandon integration, but this
response will be rather irrational. So, the best solution for German government is
to choose the strategy of integrating migrants, but it shouldn’t be «one-way
traffic». If immigrants want to integrate into the society of host country, they
should be initiative. Immigrants should meet half-way and use opportunities for
integration the state suggests.
The third game is designed to answer the question of which strategy to
choose for integration of migrants. Players of this game will be the same: German
government and immigrants. Basically, this is connected with identity of
immigrants. Government can suppress identity and transform into members of one
unified society (assimilation). Government can ignore this problem and let
immigrants choose themselves. Government can integrate newcomers with special
attention to identity and do not suppress identity features.
It is quite hard to identify the system of absolute preferences. In this case
the system of relative preferences is more helpful. For state it is better to live
without protests which potentially can be dangerous for authorities. For immigrants
it can be essential to protest if their socio-cultural and economic rights are
suppressed. If both state and immigrants tend to ignore the problem, they receive
equally low payoff.
Our game model is presented in the following table.
Immigr.
Govern.
Keep
calm
Assimilate 8*,2*
10*,0
Ignore
identity
problem
Not
suppress
identity
Protest
3,3
5,5*
2,8
10*,10*
As usual, we will find Nash equilibrium in this game:
 If German government adopts strategy «assimilate», the best response from
immigrants will be «protest»;
 If German government adopts strategy «ignore identity problem», the best
response from immigrants will be «keep calm»;
 If German government adopts strategy «not suppress identity», the best
response from immigrants will be «keep calm»;
 If immigrants choose strategy «protest», the best response from the
government will be «assimilate»;
 If immigrants choose strategy «keep calm», the best response from the
government will be «not suppress identity». Government can also choose
«assimilate» strategy;
The results of the game demonstrate clearly that government can adopt two
strategies: «assimilate» immigrants or respect diversity and give space for
development of migrants’ national cultures which underpin their identity. The
strategy of assimilation will invariably provoke some resistance from immigrants,
like it was in France. The best payoffs both parties receive will be in case of
government’s respecting diversity and migrants’ not protesting.
However, the best payoffs may not correspond to the real life, since during
last several years European countries declared that multiculturalism as a strategy of
integrating migrants completely failed to meet the challenge of migration. The
debates around multicultural approach to migration and integration have never
stopped since 2010.
Many surveys showed that the overall attitude of Germans towards foreigners is
negative.
Discussion has been significantly supported by publishing provocative
book «Deutschland schabt sich ab» (eng. «Germany Does Away with Itself», рус.
«Германия. Самоликвидация») by a former Social-Democratic senator and senior
official at Germany’s Central Bank Thilo Sarrazin. In this book he argues that
Muslim immigrant groups are unwilling and incapable to integrate into German
society due to their genetics. This book was sold out with record edition and almost
split German society into opponents and proponents of multiculturalism.
Annotation of the main conclusions
Despite of many problems that may be explained by the increasing
migration inflows to the European Union, migrants contribute to the country of
destination significantly. First of all, they work in those sectors of the national
economies where the salary is not very much high and therefore Europeans do not
want to work there. As labour migrants were generally young and well motivated
to work, their performance on a host country’s labour market was good. The
guestworkers had contributed towards the capital accumulation through their
participation in pension funds, insurance schemes and employment and income
taxes. Also inflow of additional people into the country can in itself stimulate
increase job places. Labour migrants who entered the country at the same time are
producers and consumers of goods. Before they start to work, when they arrive to
the country they start to create new job places. They need houses and apartments
for residence that requires additional constructions. They need food, thus there will
be additional job places in the sphere of manufacture and distribution of food
staffs. To reach a workplace they need public transport, additional buses, drivers
and so on. When number of immigrants is high these jobs can be numerous.
During their stay in the country labour migrants spend a part of the earned money
on the goods (Bagdoshvili, 2010).
Secondly, huge migration inflows help slow down the decrease, for
example, in German population. According to Report on labour force and
employment by German Institute for Employment Research 2012 the number of
German labour force is decreasing dramatically and in the nearest future German
enterprises can face the lack of labour force. Migration inflows can fill this gap.
However, there is a problem with formulation and implementation of
migration policy on the level of the EU. It can be explained by different situation
with migrants in EU-countries. To improve this situation, the European Union
countries should agree upon the measures specified below.
What should be implemented?
1. Specific mechanisms, which encourage migrants to work. The problem
is that unemployed migrant is a great burden for welfare system. Some
migrants just do not want to work and live for unemployment benefits.
It is apparent that the process of employed migrants’ integration goes
better. Here migration policy implementation contradicts with the
principles of welfare state.
2. Combating illegal migration. EU-countries should undertake joint
actions in combating illegal migration from North Africa and Turkey.
The problem is that illegal migrants use boats of different types.
Decision on using marine forces should be taken collectively by the EUstates. Here could be some administrative issues proceeding from the
system of decision-making.
3. Encouraging migration of high-qualified workers. In this sphere
countries should continue cooperation, perfecting old initiatives (such as
blue card) and creating new possibilities.
4. Integration of Muslim migrants. Most of the Muslim migrants find ways
for integration into the society. However, there are at least 5 % of
Muslim migrants who doesn’t want to integrate themselves into
European society. They reject European values, European way of life.
Here should be imposed better control for such group of immigrants,
since, being fundamentalists, they can pose a real danger for the
peaceful life of the society. This will involve the strengthening system
of regular checks of migrants and may contradict with some basic
human rights.
Germany, France, Great Britain have a potential, resources and clear
interests to have the impact on migration policy formulation and implementation.
These countries should be leaders and take initiatives to address social,
administrative and cultural issues in order to remove all the possible barriers for
improving migration policy.