People in Bolton Factfile no. 1
2014 Population Estimates
People in Bolton
2014 Population Estimates Factfile - Updated July 2015
People in Bolton factfiles provide key facts and figures about people who live or work in the
borough of Bolton, and bring together information from a variety of sources. They are an evolving
resource which are regularly updated to include more recent information as it becomes available.
Other related publications, including more detailed information on a range of topics can be
accessed at: www.bolton.gov.uk/researchandinformation
This factfile tells you approximately how many people live in the borough, as well as their age
structure. It also explores how Bolton’s population has changed over the past ten years, as well as
the reasons for that change.
It includes analysis of the Mid-Year Estimates, which are produced by the Office for National
Statistics.
The factfile is set out in the following sections:
1.1
Population Estimates
2
1.2
Age Structure
4
1.3
Births, Deaths and Migration
6
For more information contact:
Planning Strategy
Development and Regeneration
2nd Floor
Wellsprings
tel: 01204 336112
email: censushelp@bolton.gov.uk
Population Estimates Factfile
1
1.1
Population Estimates
Mid-Year population estimates for 2014 were released in June 2015 and provide an update to the
population information previously released by the Office for National Statistics. The estimates tell
us how many people live within each local authority and provide information on the structure of
the population in these areas by age and sex.
The official 2014 mid-year estimates build on the 2011 Census based mid-year estimates, updated
to account for population change during the period 2013-14. A combination of registration,
survey and administrative data are used to estimate the different components of population
change.
In mid-2014 Bolton was home to approximately 280,400 people, with 141,500 females and
139,000 males. This is an increase of 300 people, or 0.1% over the previous 2013 estimate of
280,400.
Bolton
Mid-year
estimate
(number)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
275,200
277,300
279,000
280,100
280,400
Annual
Change
(%)
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Greater Manchester
Mid-year
Annual
estimate
Change
(number)
(%)
2,661,900
2,685,400
2,702,300
2,714,900
2,732,900
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
0.7%
England and Wales
Mid-year
Annual
estimate
Change
(number)
(%)
55,692,400
56,170,900
56,567,800
56,948,200
57,408,700
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2014. Crown Copyright. Data is rounded to the nearest
hundred.
The population estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 have been revised to bring them into line
with the official mid-2011 estimates, which are based on 2011 Census estimates. The former mid2002 to mid-2010 estimates were based on population change since mid-2001. The 2011 Census
and the resulting mid-2011 estimates, however, provide a new base point at which is likely to be
more accurate. Therefore any 2002-2010 figures shown in this report will not necessarily
correspond with figures shown in earlier ones, which should be disregarded.
Bolton’s population has been increasing steadily over the past decade, with an increase of 15,900
people in the last ten years (6% of the population). In the last few years however growth has
slowed to just 0.1% (or 300 people) in 2013-14, compared to growth of 0.8% in 2009-10.
Population Estimates Factfile
2
Bolton Mid Year Estimates 2004-2014
Total Population
285,000
280,000
275,000
270,000
265,000
260,000
255,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2004-2014. Crown Copyright
Mid Year Estimates 2004-2014
% Population Change
18%
% Change
Greater Manchester
England & Wales
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2004-2014. Crown Copyright
Bolton experienced a lower rate of growth than both Greater Manchester (7.2%) and England &
Wales as a whole (8%). Manchester district had the largest population increase with around 17%
from 2004-14, and only Manchester, Salford and Trafford districts experienced population growth
above the national rate. Bolton’s population growth was the fourth largest in Greater
Population Estimates Factfile
3
Manchester. Tameside, Rochdale experienced growth at around 3%, whilst Stockport’s population
remained relatively unchanged, with growth at just 2%.
1.2
Age Structure
The age profile of Bolton’s population is very similar to the national profile, although the borough
has a higher proportion of children and a slightly lower proportion of working age than England.
Around 1 in 5 of the population in Bolton is a dependent child (aged 0-15), and slightly less than 1
in 5 is of pensionable age (aged 65+).
Greater
Manchester
%
%
Bolton
No.
Children
(Aged 0-15)
Working Age
(Aged 16-64)
Older People
(Aged 65+)
England &
Wales
%
58,400
20.8
20.1
18.9
175,200
62.5
64.3
63.4
46,800
16.7
15.5
17.7
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2014. Crown Copyright
MALES
FEMALES
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2014. Crown Copyright.
Over the past ten years in Bolton, the number of children (aged 0-15) has only increased slightly
from 56,200 to 58,400, an increase of just 2,200 or 4%. The numbers of working age people have
also increased a little more overall, from 169,100 to 175,200, also an increase of around 4%
Population Estimates Factfile
4
However the number of older people has increased dramatically, from 39,300 to 46,800, an
increase of around one-fifth (19%). This means there is an extra 7,500 older people living in
Bolton compared to a decade ago.
2004
No.
Children
(Aged 0-15)
Working Age
(Aged 16-64)
Older People
(Aged 65+)
56,200
169,100
39,300
2014
%
No.
%
58,400
21
2,200
4
64 175,200
62
6,100
4
15
17
7,500
19
%
21
No.
Change
46,800
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2003-2013. Crown Copyright
Population Estimates Factfile
5
1.3
Births, Deaths and Migration
Population estimates are produced by estimating the numbers of births and deaths, and
estimating the net population change through migration in and out of Bolton.
Mid-2013 Population
280,100
Births
3,800
Deaths
-2,400
Natural Change
1,400
Internal Migration
-1,500
International Migration
400
Net Migration
-1,100
Other Changes
0
Total Change
300
Mid-2014 Population
280,400
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2014. Crown Copyright. Numbers may not sum
due to rounding.
Between 2013 and 2014 Bolton’s overall population is estimated to have increased by just 300
people. There were an additional 1,400 people as a result of natural change, i.e. there were 1,400
more births than deaths. However, there was also an estimated overall net loss in the population
of around -1,100 people due to migration. This was mainly due to the net loss of around 1,500
internal migrants (people moving from or to another part of the country), who offset the net gain
of about 400 international migrants (people moving from or to another country) by approximately
-1,100 people.
‘Other’ changes include changes in any prison populations or boarding school populations, as well
as adjustments to ensure that the local authority population sums to the national figure. In 2013
this did not result in any changes to the overall figure in Bolton.
Population Change from 2013 to 2014
Bolton
Greater Manchester
England
0.6%
% population change
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
Natural Change
Internal Migration
International Migration
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Estimates 2014. Crown Copyright.
Population Estimates Factfile
6
Bolton has a relatively high birth rate, meaning that it has a relatively high rate of natural change
compared to England, and a similar rate to Greater Manchester. However in 2013-2014 Bolton
suffered a significant loss in population due to internal migration, and had a smaller rate of
change in international migration compared to both Greater Manchester and England & Wales.
In terms of internal migration the only Greater Manchester authorities who gained in internal
migrants were Trafford, Stockport, Salford and to a smaller extent Wigan – all other authorities
experienced a loss, with Manchester & Bolton recording the largest decline. As regards
international migration Bolton had was the sixth highest gain in international migrants Manchester & Salford had by far the largest gains in GM.
Natural Change from 2013 to 2014
Natural Change
Greater Manchester
England
1.0%
% population change
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Manchester Salford
Oldham
Bolton
Rochdale Trafford
Bury
Tameside Stockport
Wigan
Internal Migration from 2013 to 2014
Internal Migration
Greater Manchester
0.6%
% population change
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.8%
Trafford Stockport Salford
Population Estimates Factfile
Wigan
Bury
Oldham Rochdale Tameside
Bolton Manchester
7
International Migration from 2013 to 2014
International Migration
Greater Manchester
England
0.9%
0.8%
% population change
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Manchester Salford
Population Estimates Factfile
Oldham Rochdale
Bury
Bolton
Trafford
Wigan
Tameside Stockport
8