Probability Project – AFM
In groups of three, you are to design one carnival midway game based on the concepts of
probability that we discuss in class. For example, you may design a card game, game using dice
or spinners, the use of a random draw, etc…; it should be similar to those discussed in class
(note: no games where an object is thrown/tossed/shot will be allowed for the purposes of this
project).
A description of each game is required. Include rules for playing the game, what constitutes
winning or possible outcomes (if there is more than one way to win or lose). Include a list of the
materials needed to create the game and a visual of the game. Tell me how much it costs to play
your game and the value of the prizes that you are giving away. Note: This will help you with
expected value! Note on the note: All of your prizes must have some kind of cash value
associated with them. If you are giving away cupcakes, how much do they cost? If it’s going to
be stuffed bears, how much are they worth?
You should calculate the theoretical probability and the empirical probability (supported with
empirical data, using a minimum of 50 trials, accompanied by a table of results preferably
recorded in Excel or some other spreadsheet). If there are multiple winning/losing conditions,
you need to find the probability for each of these, not just the probability of ‘a win’(if you have a
large prize, a medium prize, and a small prize, you need to find the probability of winning each
prize). Find the expected value of your game, using your game’s cost and the theoretical
probabilities that you have calculated.
Your group is expected to create a flyer for your game to describe the game and promote
carnival attendance. The flyer should have writing large enough to be seen far away – and it
should be colorful and creative.
Prior to the due date, your group should submit a project proposal which outlines the game’s
rules and conditions for winning/losing. If you have multiple winning/losing conditions, you
may want to consider the effect this will have on your probability calculations (in regards to the
complexity of the calculations).
Each group must have prior approval for the choice of the midway game that they include in
their carnival. Once the game has been approved, the group should make adjustments as
necessary.
Once the project has been approved, each group should type up their proposal and turn it in via
the ‘Digital Dropbox’ on BlackBoard.
Preliminary Approval Design Turn in Date: Saturday, February 6
Project Submission Date and Presentation Date: Wednesday, February 10
The grading RUBRIC must be turned in with the project!
Probability Project Rubric
With your partner, you are to design one carnival midway game based on the concept of
probability that we discussed in class. For example, you may design a dart game, dice game, or a
card game similar to those discussed in class.
You must have EACH of the items listed below for your game!! 
Items
Title Page (Typed)
(names, date, title, etc…)
Introduction (Typed)
(overall summary of game, maybe
why you chose that particular type
of game, etc)
Game Descriptions (Typed)
Materials List
Rules of the games (detailed)
How/What do you win?
Cost of game, Value of Prizes
Calculations:
Theoretical Probability
Empirical Probability
Empirical data
Expected Value
Flyer (separate page)
Colorful & Creative
Visuals
(game boards, dart board, cards,
spinner, etc…)
Written Presentation
Paragraph with description of game
for approval, turned in on time,
included in portfolio as well
Level of Difficulty – thought, time,
effort, creativity, etc (15’s will be
given out for supremely excellent
projects)
Possible Points
5
5
5
40
5
10
20
15
Points Earned