Northwest Climate Science Digest: Science and Learning Opportunities Combined
October 2015 Issue
The Northwest Climate Science Digest is a monthly newsletter jointly produced by the
Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation
Cooperative aimed at helping you stay informed about climate change science and upcoming
events and training opportunities relevant to your conservation work. Feel free to share this
information within your organization and networks, and please note the role the NW CSC
and NPLCC played in providing this service. Do you have a published article or upcoming
opportunity that you would like to share? Please send it our way to nwcsc@uw.edu. Many
thanks to those who have provided material for this edition, particularly the Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Water News. The contents of the
Climate Digest are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent
the views of the NPLCC or the Northwest Climate Science Center.
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SCIENCE: Recent climate change-relevant publications, special reports and science
resources.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming climate change-relevant webinars, workshops,
conferences, list servers and other learning opportunities.
PREVIOUS ISSUES: An archive of previous Northwest Climate Change Digest issues
developed by Region 1 of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Climate Change Challenges Adaptive Potential of Pacific Salmon
How Chinook Salmon Respond to Climate Change
Effects of climate change on bringing previously isolated species into contact
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
El Nino and La Nina to Exacerbate Coastal Hazards along Pacific Coast
Artificial fertilization of the ocean may render positive and negative effects
Adapting to Climate Change on the Oregon Coast
Effects of climate change on coastal upwelling ecosystems
Aquatic Resources/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Effects of climate change on montane wetlands
Hydrologic Debates on Stationarity Due to Climate Change Impacts
Climate change darkening Seattle’s water forecast
Low snow and warming temperatures eat away at Northwest glaciers
Arid Ecosystems
Climate Change and Land Management in Central Oregon
Land Use
Projecting climate change impacts on land use in the Willamette River Basin
Adapting transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State
Forests
Understanding forestry and climate impacts on streamflow
Fire
Wildfire policies should incorporate more prescribed and natural burns
Projected changes in fire and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest for selected climate futures
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Indian Country article on TEK Research
Taking Action
Obama administration unveils new climate resilience tools
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
New handbook on sea level rise highlights science and models for non-scientists
Developing an indicator-focused climate change assessment in Idaho
Special Reports/ Announcements
Pacific Northwest salamanders may qualify for protection
NSF awards $12 million to establish urban water sustainability network
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Climate Change Challenges Adaptive Potential of Pacific Salmon: In this study, the
authors argue that while Pacific salmon has physiological and genetic capacities to increase
thermal tolerance with rising temperatures, there is an upper thermal limit corresponding to
an increase of 2.2 degrees Celsius. To test Chinook salmon response to climate change, they
mated wild-caught adult salmon and reared offspring from each family in current and
projected future (increase of 4 degrees Celsius) temperature conditions. Based on their
results and average warming projections, they predict a 5% change of ‘catastrophic loss’ by
2075 and a 17% change by 2100. For maximum warming projections, this increases to 55%
by 2075 and 98% by 2100. They conclude that mitigation of climate change must occur to
ensure the continuation of Pacific salmon populations. They note that adaptive capacity
might increase if salmon species can acclimatize over multiple generations and pass that
adaptive capacity on to their offspring. Some evidence is provided in favor of this, but not
enough is known to incorporate this possibility into projections of adaptation.
Munoz NJ, Farrell AP, Heath JW, Neff BD (2015) Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon
challenged by climate change. Nature Climate Change 5: 163-166. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2473
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2473.html?WT.ec_id=NCLI
MATE-201502
How Chinook Salmon Respond to Climate Change: In response to Munoz et al. (2015),
Mantua et al. argue that the Munoz et al. study over-generalized their study conclusions
regarding the response to Chinook salmon to climate change. Munoz et al. studied the
adaptive potential of Chinook salmon to changes in temperature and found that they could
develop population-specific modes of adaptation in cardiac performance over evolutionary
time scales, but found little adaptive capacity in one key area, the arrhythmic temperature. As
a result, they concluded that the entire species was vulnerable to climate change. In this short
piece, lead author Nathan Mantua argues that this conclusion ignores the ability for salmon
to respond to climate change with changes in behavior, such as with altered migration
timing. Previous studies conducted in Oregon’s Umpqua River on migration timing of
Chinook salmon showed that median migration timing moved 40 days earlier in the year
when spring water temperatures increased by 5 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, the authors
disagree with the Munoz et al. conclusion that climate change is a direct threat to Pacific
salmon populations. They argue that populations in the most degraded habitats might
experience increased stress leading to extirpation, while populations in colder habitats might
experience increased productivity with warming temperatures. Moreover, previously
inaccessible habitats might become more favorable, such as has already occurred in Glacier
Bay, Alaska. The effects of climate change will be context-dependent and sweeping
conclusions with regard to the future of the species throughout the Pacific Northwest
cannot be made.
Mantua NJ, Crozier LG, Reed TE, Schindler DE, Waples RS (2015) Response of Chinook
salmon to climate change. Nature Climate Change 5, 613-615. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2670
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n7/full/nclimate2670.html
Effects of climate change on bringing previously isolated species into contact:
Climate change is already resulting in large-scale changes in species distributions, and this is
expected to worsen in the coming years. Consequently, it is thought that geographic overlap
between previously isolated species might become a significant issue, leading to competition
between species when species are already experiencing high levels of stress from altered
environmental conditions. Moreover, previously isolated species might hybridize when
brought into contact inadvertently. A new study examines these possibilities using
bioclimatic models to predict effects on 9,577 congeneric pairs (meaning species of the same
genus) between 2071-2100, including amphibians, birds and mammals. For bioclimatic
models, the authors used an ensemble of 10 GCMs. In their results, they only included those
that occurred in a majority (>5 of 10) GCMs. They found that projected rates of overlap
were highest for birds (11.6%) followed by mammals (4.4%) and finally amphibians (3.6%).
They suggest that actual rates may be even lower than these. As a result, it is likely that
hybridization and competition between species pairs will not be a significant issue in the
future.
Krosby M, Wilsey CB, McGuire JL, Duggan JM, Nogeire TM, Heinrichs JA, Tewksbury JJ,
Lawler JJ (2015) Climate-induced range overlap among closely related species. Nature
Climate Change 5: 883-886. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2699
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2699.html
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
El Nino and La Nina to Exacerbate Coastal Hazards along Pacific Coast: A new
study analyzing coastal data from across the Pacific Ocean basin from 1979-2012 to
determine if patterns in coastal change could be connected to climate cycles. Data was culled
from US and Canada beaches along with beaches in Japan, Australia, New Zealand and
Hawaii. Previous studies had looked at local and regional coastal patterns, but this was the
first study to aggregate similar data from across the Pacific. The authors found that all
regions were affected during both El Nino and La Nino years. If the US mainland west coast
and Canada felt the effects of El Nino, including larger waves, different wave directions and
higher water levels and erosion, Hawaii and northern Japan felt the same effects, while New
Zealand and Australia experienced the opposite effects. The reverse occurred for La Nina
years. The authors concluded that the projected increase of severe El Nino and La Nina
events would result in an increase in storm events that cause extreme flooding along the
Pacific coast and erosion. Up until now, it had been difficult for researchers to isolate the
effects of large-scale climate patterns from other smaller-scale local and regional climate
drivers. Bringing together a large spatial and temporal dataset made it possible to isolate
ENSO patterns. Mitchell Harley, a researcher at UNSW Australia and coauthor of the paper,
stated that this study could help Pacific coastal communities to prepare for changing storm
regimes that are driven by El Nino and La Nina events.
Barnard PL, Short AD, Harley MD, Splinter KD, Vitousek S, Turner IL, Allan J, Banno M,
Bryan KR, Doria A, Hansen JE, Kato S, Kuriyama Y, Randall-Goodwin E, Ruggiero P,
Walker IJ, Heathfield DK (2015) Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El
Nino/Southern Oscillation. Nature Geoscience. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2539
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4336#.VgRpcrR4hSW
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2539.html
Artificial fertilization of the ocean may render positive and negative effects: Artificial
fertilization of the ocean is a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere. Artificial fertilization may result in an increase in emissions of
dimethyl sulphide (DMS), which is the largest source of sulphate aerosols over remote ocean
regions. Increasing sulphate aerosols can cause direct and indirect cooling effects on climate.
This study used two emissions scenarios, an RCP 4.5 control and an RCP 4.5 test case in
which DMS emissions were increased significantly over oceans. They found that the direct
and indirect cooling effects associated with increasing aerosol emission from the oceans
resulted in a significant offset of warming around the world. However, an increase in
aerosols may have other harmful effects. Aerosols also become part of rainfall, and could be
harmful for human health. Consequently, the authors conclude that altering marine
phytoplankton activity via artificial fertilization might lead to a combination of positive and
negative effects on climate and human health.
Grandey BS and Wang C. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and
impact rainfall. Scientific Reports 5: 13055. doi: 10.1038/srep13055
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep13055
Adapting to Climate Change on the Oregon Coast: The Climate Adaptation Knowledge
Exchange (CAKE) has released a new report on adapting to climate change on the Oregon
coast. CAKE is managed by the non-profit organization EcoAdapt and aims to build a
shared knowledge base for natural resource management in the face of climate change. The
report, titled ‘A Citizen’s Guide to Climate Change on the Oregon Coast’, was published in
March 2015 and aims to serve as introduction to information and the state of the science on
climate change effects on the Oregon coast. It is also intended to serve as a resource for
citizens that want to help their communities in adaptation efforts. Part One of the guide
provides an overview of topics on climate change adaptation on the Oregon coast. It
provides a number of hyperlinks so that readers can find more online resources and articles
for further information. Part Two of the guide contains a set of papers written by various
experts in science, law and policy in Oregon. The papers were commissioned by Oregon
Shores Conservation Coalition in 2012 and also contain a number of additional resources.
The guide is available for free at the link below.
Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition. Adapting to Climate Change on the Oregon Coast:
A Citizen’s Guide (March 2015).
http://www.cakex.org/sites/default/files/documents/ClimateChangeOnTheOregonCoastMarch2015.pdf#page=42
Effects of climate change on coastal upwelling ecosystems: A new edition of Current
Climate Change Reports focuses on the ecological impacts of climate change, with a section on
coastal upwelling ecosystems. Coastal upwelling zones occur in the Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans along the edges of the eastern boundary currents. They are one of the most
productive marine ecosystems in the world. The zones occur as winds along the shore
interact with the rotation of the earth to move surface waters offshore, which results in
upwelling of nutrients from deeper waters to surface waters. Consequently, there is a large
population of zooplankton and small pelagic fish. The fish are often an important trophic
control for large populations of seabirds and marine mammals. This study finds that
productivity in these zones is under threat due to climate change impacts. Intensification of
upwelling is expected, which might lead to hypoxic events and less food particles for fish
larvae. Ocean acidity will rise, which will affect organisms that have carbonate structures.
Large-scale impacts on pelagic fish seem unlikely, but shifts in the composition of species are
expected.
Bakun A, Black BA, Bograd SJ, Garcia-Reyes M, Miller AJ, Rykaczewski RR, Sydeman WJ
(2015) Anticipated effects of climate change on coastal upwelling ecosystems. Current
Climate Change Reports 1,2: 85-93. doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4
Aquatic Resources/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Effects of climate change on montane wetlands: A new study published by UW
researchers, among others, examines the effects of drought on wetlands in the mountains of
the Pacific Northwest. Montane wetlands are thought to be one of the most sensitive
ecosystems to changes in climate, because their existence depends on direct effects of
climate, including precipitation, snowpack and evaporation. The authors develop a new
method for projecting climate impacts on wetlands located in the mountains. They use a
combination of observations of water levels in the wetlands and simulated soil moisture to
relate soil moisture to wetland water levels to understand four types of wetlands (ephemeral,
intermediate, perennial and permanent) in the Pacific Northwest. They use reconstructed
historical data to project climate impacts on the wetlands for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B
emissions scenario). They find that climate change will have strong effects on montane
wetlands. Water levels will decrease, transient wetlands will exist for shorter periods, and
some wetlands will dry up entirely. Wetlands classified as ‘intermediate hydroperiod
wetlands’ will experience the most dramatic effects as they shift to transient wetlands. A
significant issue with these results, as described by a UW press release (see link below),
includes a loss of habitat for pond species. Montane wetlands are a key habitat for Cascades
frogs, toads, newts and salamanders. They’re also a crucial water source for shrews,
mountain lions and other species. Higher up on the food chain, ponds are important source
of food for birds, snakes and mammals. The most vulnerable ponds, the intermediate
hydroperiod wetlands, are the most significant habitat for frogs and salamanders, and the
Cascades frog is already listed under the Endangered Species Act. The frog species is a very
unique species of frog that only exists at high elevations in Washington, Oregon and
California. The species has a lifespan of greater than 20 years and can survive under tens of
feet of snow.
Lee S-Y, Ryan ME, Hamlet AF, Palen WJ, Lawler JJ, Halabisky M (2015) Projecting the
hydrologic impacts of climate change on montane wetlands. PLOS One 10(9): e0136385.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0136385
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/09/04/climate-change-could-leave-pacificnorthwest-amphibians-high-and-dry/
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0136385
Hydrologic Debates on Stationarity Due to Climate Change Impacts: Water
professionals have been struggling with how to account for anthropogenic climate change
(ACC) in current and future hydrologic design. Milly et al. (2008) asserted that “stationarity is
dead”, meaning the idea that data is not changing over time (e.g. the mean, variance and
autocorrelation of the data). This has also been asserted in ecology, natural resource
management and many other fields due to the already-occurring impacts of climate change.
However, infrastructure investments in ACC nor evidence of ACC occurring should be
accepted as scientific evidence that stationarity is indeed dead, the authors argue. They
provide a thoughtful overview of the importance of the topic and review commentary on the
issue. They support the case already stated by Montanari and Koutsoyiannis (2014) that the
way forward in dealing with ACC must “bridge the gap between physically based models
without statistics and statistical models without physics”. They claim that a “suitable
successor” to stationarity has yet to be found, and it is a major challenge for hydrologists and
water resource engineers.
Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP,
Stouffer RJ, Dettinger MD, Krysanova V (2015) On Critiques of “Stationarity is Dead:
Wither Water Management?” Water Resources Research 51. doi: 10.1002/2015WR017408
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017408/full
Climate change darkening Seattle’s water forecast: This summer’s drought is changing
the long-term outlook for Seattle’s water forecast. Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) models of
future water utilities show that Seattle is looking at a reduced ‘firm yield’ of 30% on average
through 2050. Firm yield describes the amount of water that can be reliably delivered. Prior
to this summer, SPU officials thought that there would be no major water-supply problems
before 2060. But now things look different. Director of SPU, Ray Hoffman, stated, “’This
year, as tough as it is, is a real revelation for what the future might look like.’” SPU is in the
process of thinking through possible adaptation options that might mitigate the severity of
future droughts. Alex Chen, SPU’s director of water planning, is exploring various ideas for
maximizing performance, including an increase of water storage in the Cedar and Tolt
reservoirs or reusage of precipitation falling on Seattle. Chen even mentioned desalinization.
http://invw.org/2015/09/09/climate-change-is-darkening-seattles-waterforecast/?utm_source=Sightline+Institute&utm_medium=webemail&utm_campaign=Sightline+News+Selections&utm_source=Eclips&utm_campaign=60c057b6f7E_clips_Sept_14_20159_14_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c909fc207a60c057b6f7-388501765
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014MS000400/abstract?campaign=aguperson
alchoice
Low snow and warming temperatures eat away at Northwest glaciers: The Seattle
Times reports on research into the state of glaciers in the Northwest. Mauri Pelto, a Nichols
College glaciologist, has been studying Washington’s glaciers for over thirty years. Pelto
recently completed an annual survey of glaciers in the North Cascades and stated that he and
his research team found bare ice and gushing meltwater where glaciers typically would be
covered in snow. He estimated that glaciers would lose 5 to 10% of volume before the
summer was over, the single largest volume loss in the past 50 years. Measurements taken by
the Nooksack tribe showed that the glacier, which feeds into the Nooksack River, was losing
a foot-thick layer from the surface of the glacier every week. The Nooksack tribe has funded
a number of studies to forecast the future of glaciers that feed the Nooksack River because
of concerns over salmon, said the Nooksack water resources manager, Oliver Grah.
Although this year has been bad, glaciers in the Northwest have been losing volume –
between 25 to 40% - since the mid-1980s, Pelto said.
http://www.seattletimes.com/life/outdoors/disastrous-low-snow-heat-eat-away-atnorthwest-glaciers/?utm_source=E-clips&utm_campaign=a9f5b15206E_clips_Sept_8_20159_8_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c909fc207aa9f5b15206-388501765
Arid Ecosystems
Climate Change and Land Management in Central Oregon: A new study examines
potential climate change impacts on the condition of rangelands in central Oregon and
evaluates several management strategies. For three different scenarios of climate change, the
authors projected large shifts in vegetation types throughout the 21st century. Toward the
end of the 21st century, they found declines in sagebrush steppe and in salt desert shrub.
They found large increases in extreme fire years, which are projected to result in large and
rapid shifts in vegetation types. Increases in exotic grasses and decreases in juniper
encroachment are projected to occur. They found climate-driven shifts are projected to
increase the complexity of rangeland management. Their method allows for future testing of
different management strategies for dealing with the effects of climate change on rangelands.
Creutzburg MK, Halofsky JE, Halofsky JS, Christopher TA (2015) Climate Change and
Land Management in the Rangelands of Central Oregon. Environmental Management 55:
43-55. doi: 10.1007/s00267-014-0362-3.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-014-0362-3
Land Use
Projecting climate change impacts on land use in the Willamette River Basin: Climate
change has significant impacts on forests, such as alteration of the disturbance regime,
disruption of the carbon cycle, shifts in distribution of vegetation types, increases and
decreases in forest productivity, and changes in species composition. These impacts have
been studied, but tend not to include land use. In this study, the authors incorporated an
agent-based landscape simulation model (Envision) with results from a dynamic global
vegetation model (MC2). They used climate scenarios developed for the 5th IPCC report.
Using an agent-based model allowed for the inclusion of decisions such as harvesting and
probability of fire. They explored the sensitivity of forest area, biogeography, fire rates,
harvest rates and forest age class distribution to three climate change scenarios in the
Willamette River Basin. The authors found that the dominant vegetation type was projected
to remain forest, but forest type would transition from primarily evergreen needleleaf to a
mixture of broadleaf and needleleaf growth. In moderate to high climate change scenarios,
the average area burned per year was projected to increase from three to nine fold from the
present. Generally, a more disturbed and open forest landscape is projected to occur by the
end of the 21st century.
Turner DP, Conklin DR, Bolte JP (2015. Projected climate change impacts on forest land
cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. Climatic Change. doi:
10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4
Adapting transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State: A
new study looks at climate change vulnerability in national parks and forests in Washington
State. The researchers collaborated with federal land managers and conducted a vulnerability
assessment and identified adaptation strategies for a network consisting of 28,900 km of
roads and trails in north-central Washington. The study included a wide variety of data
sources, including observations of sensitivity and response to climate variability, climate
projections, literature reviews, expert knowledge, management policies and stakeholder
engagement. The largest impact on roads and trails is expected to occur from enhanced fall
flooding and decreases in spring snowpack.
Strauch RL, Raymond CL, Rochefort RM, Hamlet AF, Lauver C (2015) Adapting
transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State, U.S.A. Climatic
Change 130: 185-199. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1357-7
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1357-7
Forests
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12933/abstract
Understanding forestry and climate impacts on streamflow: In this study, the authors
used historical data from the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon to explore the
relative impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation climate variability and forest harvesting on
streamflow. Historical data is taken from watershed experiments in which forest cover has
been removed or altered in order to understand the impact of forestry operations on
streamflow. By analyzing a 60-year record from the experimental forest, it was found that
climatic variability is the dominant driver of streamflow (vis-à-vis changes in forest cover)
due to the contrast between El Nino and La Nina years.
Burt TP, Howden NJK, McDonnell JJ, Jones JA, Hancock GR (2015) Seeing the climate
through the trees: observing climate and forestry impacts on streamflow using a 60-year
record. Hydrological Processes 29: 473-480. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10406
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.10406/full
Fire
Wildfire policies should incorporate more prescribed and natural burns: A new
commentary published in the journal Science by a team of researchers from the University of
Washington, UC-Berkeley, Northern Arizona University, The Wilderness Society and the
Forest Service argues for the reform of forest fire management due to the fire conditions
that now exist (due to changes in climate). The authors advocate for more prescribed and
managed burns, tree thinning and less frequent suppression of burns in certain conditions.
Parks Canada, which divides land into different zones for different types of fire
management, could be a model for US fire management. If this approach were to be taken,
the authors argue that forests in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada could be restored to a more
natural state where ignition would not occur as frequently and thus fires would be much less
severe.
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/09/17/scientists-let-wildfires-burn-whenprudent/
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6254/1280.full
North MP, Stephens SL, Collins BM, Agee JK, Aplet G, Franklin JF, Fule PZ (2015)
Reform forest fire management: Agency incentives undermine policy effectiveness. Science
349, 6254: 1280-1281. doi: 10.1126/science.aab2356
Projected changes in fire and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest for selected climate
futures: The Integrated Scenarios project, a collaboration between the Northwest Climate
Science Center, the University of Idaho, Conservation Biology Institute and the University
of Washington, modeled future changes in hydrology, climate and vegetation over the
western United States, from the Pacific coast to the Great Plains. Results from CMIP5
models were evaluated for performance in terms of simulating the climate of the Northwest,
and those that performed the best were downscaled to finer grids and then used in regional
hydrologic and vegetation models. This study presents regional results for the Pacific
Northwest for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and uses MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model. Results
were aggregated into three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW) (from the crest of
the Cascade Mountains west), Northwest Plains and Plateau (NWPP) (non-mountainous
areas east of the Cascades) and Eastern Northeast Mountains (ENWM) (mountainous areas
east of the Cascades). The authors find that the mean fire interval decreases by up to 48% in
the WNW, and potential vegetation shifts from conifers to mixed forest for RCP 4.5 and
8.5. For the NWPP, the mean fire interval decreases by up to 82% and increases by up to
14% if fire suppression is used. In the ENWM, the mean fire interval decreases by up to
81% and subalpine communities are entirely lost.
Sheehan T, Bachelet D, Ferschweiler K (2015) Projected major fire and vegetation changes
in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate
futures. Ecological Modelling 317: 16-29. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Indian Country article on TEK Research: Indian Country Newsletter published an article
reporting on a new study being conducted at Oregon State University documenting ‘Indian
time’ as an interaction between climate and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). To find
out if Native people were changing traditional rituals and behaviors due to climate
change, Samantha Chisholm Hatfield, a researcher at Oregon State, interviewed people from
the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians in Oregon, the Quinault Indian Nation in
Washington, the Duckwater Shoshone in Nevada and the Paiute in Utah.
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/09/17/indian-time-documentableaccording-recent-study-oregon-state-university-161765?page=0%2C0
Taking Action
Obama administration unveils new climate resilience tools: U.S. Secretary of the
Interior Sally Jewell has announced a new set of online climate data resources to assist Arctic
communities with climate change planning, adaptation and management. The new data sets
were introduced as part of an online Climate Resilience Toolkit and contain more than 250
datasets and over 40 maps and other resources. In addition to climate data sets for the
Arctic, Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs Kevin Washburn and Secretary Jewell
announced that the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit would be updated with climate impacts
information that is particular to tribal nations. The tribal climate resources were developed
with support by tribes, NOAA and the EPA and were supported by the White House
Council on Native American Affairs.
https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/obama-administration-unveils-new-climate-resiliencetools
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
New handbook on sea level rise highlights science and models for non-scientists:
The US Geological Survey has published a new handbook that details models that are used
to study and predict sea-level rise and how it is projected to impact coasts. It is designed for
land managers, coastal planners and policy makers and explains how sea level changes are
occurring. It explains models, analysis techniques and datasets available and how they are
used by scientists and engineers to understand historical sea level trends and to project
future rates of sea level rise and coastal impacts. The work was supported by the Southeast
Climate Science Center. A copy of the handbook is available below:
http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/pp1815
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4309#.Ve9CC_lVhBe&utm_source=9.9.1
5+Newsletter&utm_campaign=Constant+Contact&utm_medium=email
Developing an indicator-focused climate change assessment in Idaho: A new study
describes an indicator-focused climate change assessment of Idaho that provides an
interdisciplinary framework for understanding indicators of local to regional-level climate
change and a proof-of-concept case example that incorporates both social and biophysical
data and indicators. A number of surveys were completed to understand the most important
data needs for end-users. Survey participants identified precipitation indicators as being the
most important climate measure, and streamflow timing, volumetric stream discharge and
baseflow stream discharge as being the most important water resources metrics. Forest
metrics included wildland fire severity and vegetation distribution. Rangeland survey
participants identified vegetation indicators. Agricultural participants were concerned with
drought and the duration of the growing season. Overall, changes to water resources and
wildfire risk were identified as being of primary concern. Using results from the survey, the
authors developed a datasets for 15 biophysical indicators and quantitative changes in the
indicators were determined using time series analysis from 1975 to 2010. The framework
used in the study could be used for other climate change assessments at local to regional
scales that combine both quantitative and qualitative metrics.
Klos PZ et al. (2015) Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: An Assessment Framework for
Coupling Biophysical Change and Social Perception. Weather, Climate and Society 7: 238254. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00070.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00070.1
Special Reports/Announcements
Pacific Northwest salamanders may qualify for protection: The US Fish and Wildlife
Service announced that two species of salamanders in Oregon and Washington may qualify
for protection under the Endangered Species Act. The two species, the Cascade torrent
salamander and the Columbia torrent salamander, will undergo full status reviews to see if
they need protection. The Center for Biological Diversity first asked for protection of the
salamander species in 2012, citing low numbers of the species due to habitat loss from
logging and roads. The salamanders live in streams and are only found in the Cascades and
Coast ranges.
http://www.kplu.org/post/pacific-northwest-salamanders-may-qualify-protection
NSF awards $12 million to establish urban water sustainability network: A consortium
of 14 academic institutions in the US have received $12 million in total from the National
Science Foundation to address challenges to urban water systems in the US and globally. The
network will establish six connected regional urban water sustainability hubs across the US.
The goal of the project is to create a research network for integrated water systems and
foster innovation for water-sensitive urban design and building resilient cities. The
consortium of 14 academic institutions includes two universities in the Pacific Northwest –
University of Oregon and Oregon State University.
http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2015/nsf-awards-12-million-toestablish-urban-water-sustainability-research-netw/
UPCOMING EVENTS
10/6 – 12pm – Webinar, Climate Change and Organic Agriculture
10/6-10/8 – Training, Newport, OR. Climate Adaptation for Coastal Communities
Training
10/8 – 10am – Webinar. Inspire Ocean and Climate Literacy and Conservation
through MPAs by Claire Fackler of NOAA
10/13-10/14 – Conference, Polson, MT. 2015 Native American Fish and Wildlife
Society Pacific Region Conference
10/14 - 11am - Webinar, Identifying Resilient Terrestrial Landscapes in the Pacific
Northwest
10/17-10/21 – Conference, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The Wildlife Society 22nd
Annual Conference
10/19 – Workshop, Medford, OR. Adapting to Climate Change Workshop
10/19-10/21 - Conference, Vancouver BC. North American Invasive Species
Management Association Annual Conference 2015
10/22 - Conference, Seattle, WA, 2015 AWRA Washington State Conference - Water
Management Strategies in the Face of Climate Change
10/26 – Conference, Tacoma, WA Cascadia Prairie-Oak Partnership 2015 Conference
10/26-10/29 – Training, Santa Fe, NM. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for
Tribes
10/27-10/28 – Training, Memphis, TN. Climate Adaptation for Conservation
Training & Coaching Session
10/28-10/30 – Forum, Manning Park Resort, British Columbia. Wildlinks 2015
11/2-11/3 - Conference, Sacramento, CA. 2015 Southwest Climate Summit
11/3-11/5 – Conference, Cambridge, MA. 2015 Rising Seas Summit
11/4-11/5 – Conference, Coeur d'Alene, ID. Sixth Annual Pacific Northwest Climate
Science Conference
11/8-11/12 – Conference, Portland, OR. CERF 23rd Biennial Conference
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