Only social media can fix the crisis of modern politics
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-02/12/the-coming-storm
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This is a guest post by Carl Miller, Research Director at the Centre for the Analysis of Social
Media at think tank Demos. Follow him on Twitter at @carljackmiller
If you do indeed vote, the ballot paper you pick up in 2020 will look nothing like the one you
were offered in 2015, or 2010, or indeed any before. As politics in front of our eyes seems to be
business as usual, an earthquake is rumbling under Westminster. Two tectonic trends are
beginning to crash together. The impact has the potential to pull down the political furniture --
the familiar reds and blues, the comforting dividing lines, the same basic choices -- that we have
grown used to over generations.
Anti-politics, both here and across Europe has become the predominant
mood
The first of these trends is the crisis of modern politics. For fifty years, mainstream politics has
been trapped in a downward spiral. Mainstream political parties have lost millions of members -now just 2 perecent of the electorate. In 1950, 84 percent of the electorate turned out to vote. In
2010, it was 65 percent, and less than half of voters under the age of 24. Only a third of young
people have an interest in politics, and only half think it's their duty to vote. Turnout
is predicted to continue to decrease as they comprise a higher and higher share of the electorate.
There are concerns the 2014 European Parliamentary elections will have a dismal turnout, at the
same time as being the most important and consequential in the history of the EU.
Underlying this has been a free-fall in our attitudes towards politics; our sense of its ability to
meaningfully and positively change our lives. Around 80 percent of us simplydon't trust what
they say. Last year, Ipsos MORI's poll showed that politicians are trusted less than estate agents
or (gasp) bankers. From expenses and lobbying scandals to The Thick of it and regular Paxman
grilling, our representatives have received a decades-long media and cultural battering. Antipolitics, both here and across Europe has become the predominant mood.
The second trend is the rise of social media, and the increasingly political uses to which it is put.
It is now, of course, the predominant way the internet is used. Over half of British adults now
regularly log onto a social media platform. Of every hour we spend online, 13 minutes are on
social media -- more than on entertainment, shopping, checking the news, email or anything else.
Social media is taking a more and more political turn. Young people are not disengaged about
political issues -- actually, they are probably as engaged as any other generation. They are
turning to social media to pursue their beliefs and passions for a better world outside of those
mainstream institutions that they trust so little. From groups that sit outside the mainstream like
the English Defence League (which Jamie Bartlett has called a "Facebook group with a streetbased wing") to all kinds of volunteering, activism and passionate debate -- both legitimate and
illegitimate -- this "para-political" activity is now a potent and growing phenomenon.
Sooner rather than later, social media will change how formal politics is done too. We only need
to look over to Italy to see how a tired, distrusted political status quo and cynical electorate has
mixed with social media to create new political realities. That example is Beppe Grillo: a
grizzled, angry Italian comedian with no history of politics. Grillo had a million Facebook
friends, a million Twitter followers and the most popularblog in Italy. This following became the
Five Star Movement -- a furious, insurgent anti-corruption groundswell that contested the last
elections, in 2013. Grillo didn't play by the rules. He refused to give interviews to mainstream
press, called Berlusconi a "psycho-dwarf"; he wouldn't even (under his Movement's own rules)
take office himself. He had no lackeys in the press or TV. He had no big business funders. It
didn't matter.
Demos studied Beppe Grillo and his movement as it grew. We realised a new kind of politics
was taking shape. Social media gave him a voice, and a party (political not recreational)
machine. He used Meetup groups around the world to build an army of volunteers to win what
electoral strategists called the "ground game". We estimated that he had around 250,000 people
who considered themselves members of his party. It worked: in a year, he came from nowhere to
win 1 in every 4 votes -- a massive 10 points higher than where the polls put him.
Here in the UK, the rise of Nigel Farage and UKIP shows us how powerful the antiestablishment message can be. A poll at the beginning of the year put UKIP above all other as
the most "liked" political party in the UK. But this reflects more how turned off people are with
the mainstream, than anything to do with UKIP. Their message is not a uniting one, and cutting
into the Europhobic wings of Labour and the Conservatives is unlikely to win him an election.
Nor will dodgy appointments, or an abject lack of policies. UKIP is rigidly hierarchical, and is
no better at social media than any of its establishment competitors.
When the crisis of modern politics and the rise of social media finally and truly come together,
the outcome will be a decisive transformation in the British political landscape. A charismatic
voice will rise with an angry, insurgent, anti-incumbent message that will appeal to people across
the political spectrum. The message is likely, like the messenger, to not reflect current political
consensuses and divisions. They may call for a radical house-building programme, an increase
in the minimum wage and free care for the elderly at the same time as a ban on immigrant
benefits and reduction in support for the BBC.
Most of all, they will harness the enormous power of social media to level the playing field with
mainstream parties. Much like Beppe Grillo, they will use it as a costless platform for promotion
and party organisation wrapped into one. The door of British politics is already hanging open:
before long, someone will use social media to knock it off its hinges.