Page 1 of 16 Project: GEOCARBON Project full title: Operational Global Carbon Observing System European Commission - FP7 Collaborative Project (large scale integrating project) - for specific cooperation actions (SICA) dedicated to international cooperation partner countries Grant agreement no.: 283080 Del. no: 13.1 Deliverable name: Synthesis of the global to regional land carbon fluxes and stocks from multiple CCDAS Version: 1.0 WP no: 13 Lead beneficiary: LSCE-UVSQ Delivery date from Annex I (project month): 32 Actual delivery date (project month): 36 1. Introduction 1.1 Short summary The results of different Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Systems (CCDASs) have been synthesized and compared to other independent approaches (i.e., an ensemble of atmospheric inversions and Dynamic Ecosystem Model simulations (DGVMs)). The results corroborate a global net land sink of 1.3±0.5 PgC/yr for the 2001-2009 period (natural exchanges plus biomass burning). Additionally, we observe a significant trend of around 0.2 PgC/yr increase during the last decade (2000s). We note that the optimized natural land flux depends on the biomass burning flux that is imposed to each system. The spatial distribution of the carbon sink is in favour of i) a large sink in the North (from 0.8 to more than 2. PgC/yr) except for one system that has a positive flux (DALEC), ii) nearly neutral tropical CO2 exchanges (except for a large sink in DALEC) and iii) a small sink or source in the South (except for one system with a large source (BETHY)). At the regional scale, the model differences become too large to draw robust conclusions. Overall, the CCDAS results fall in between the flux estimates from standard DGVMs and from atmospheric inversions. The assimilation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations into these process-based models (through model parameters optimization) provides a strong and unique constraint on the seasonal cycle of the CO2 fluxes, reconciling the initial discrepancies seen in the DGVMs as well as on the inter-annual flux variations (IAV). CCDASs further Page 2 of 16 offer the possibilities to diagnose the optimal contribution from Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Respiration. The results tend to indicate that the GPP year-to-year variations are relatively similar between the different systems but that the respiration fluxes explain most of the differences. Overall, such analysis represents the first comparison of its kind; it highlights the potential of CCDASs and pave the road of future directions to investigate. 1.2 Rationale for this deliverable Importance: Deliverable 13.1 represents a first summary of the results of several CCDASs that describe what can be learned on the land carbon cycle though the optimization of land surface models. The comparison of CCDAS results to other approaches (pure atmospheric inversions, ecosystem model simulations, data-oriented models, …) is important as it highlights i) the benefit of assimilating various data streams into current process-based land ecosystem models and ii) the critical issues that remain to be resolved to improve future model data fusion schemes. Issue addressed: We address the current level of agreement between different data assimilation schemes based on different land ecosystem models. We specifically discuss the impact of data assimilation to constrain i) the seasonal cycle of the net CO2 exchanges, ii) the inter-annual variability and the spatial distribution of the net flux and iii) the gross carbon fluxes (in particular the GPP). Indications about key differences between the systems that can explain the obtained systematic differences in the net carbon fluxes are provided. Fitting overall frame of project: This task provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential of model parameter optimization using various data streams. Although not mature enough, these data assimilation scheme open the road for new insight on the carbon cycle and how to reduce future uncertainty in the prediction of the land carbon budgets and thus the future climate change. 1.3 Problems encountered and envisaged solution No particular problems attached to the completion of this deliverable have been encountered. Few difficulties, mentioned in a previous deliverable (D9.1), concerned the completion of the assimilation run for several CCDAS and a late delivery of the results. These delays, however, only marginally impacted the proposed land carbon synthesis, given the three months extension of the overall project. Page 3 of 16 2 Full description We discuss here first the overall land carbon sink results from the different CCDAS approaches used in GEOCARBON, at the global and continental scales: BETHY-CCDAS: Optimization of BETHY model parameters using NDVI and atmospheric CO2 data (Rayner et al. 2005). LSCE-CCCDAS: Optimization of ORCHIDEE model parameters (Krinner et al. 2005) using NDVI, FluxNEt and atmospheric CO2 data (http://orchidas.lsce.ipsl.fr/). JSBACH-CCDAS: Optimization of JSBACH model parameters using fAPAR and atmospheric CO2 data (Kaminsky et al. 2013). DALEC-CCDAS: Optimization of DALEC model parameters using forest biomass, soil carbon and satellite LAI data (Bloom et al. 2014). CTDAS: Carbon Tracker Europe data assimilation system optimizing fluxes with atmospheric data (Van der Velde et al. 2014) We then put these results into the context of other partly independent studies to investigate the contribution of data assimilation and model parameters optimization. Finally we briefly highlight some remaining challenges. 2.1 Overall carbon balance from the different CCDAS Figure 1 displays the global and latitudinal CO2 budget of the 5 CCDASs used in GEOCARBON, with a focus on the land budget. The results from these graphs have already been partially discussed in the deliverable D12.1. Overall for the mean global land carbon fluxes over the 2001-2009 period, we find that: Large differences occur in terms of natural land-ecosystem carbon uptake, with values from 1.6 PgC/yr (DALEC) to 3.3 PgC/yr (JSBACH). Note first that the JSBACH model results only cover three year of that decade. The differences are partly due to differences in biomass burning emissions, with low emissions in the LSCE and BETHY systems (prescribed from deforestation fluxes and around 0.9/0.6 PgC/yr for LSCE/BETHY) to much higher emission in CTDAS (1.9 PgC/yr, including both deforestation fluxes and savanna’s burning that also regrow in the following wet season). When the differences in biomass burning are accounted for, the net ecosystem fluxes become more comparable between the different systems, with a mean carbon uptake around 1.3 PgC/yr, except for DALEC. Few particular cases appear. DALEC system that does not use the atmospheric constraint obtains the smallest natural land uptake (around 1,6 PgC/yr) and only used similar biomass burning fluxes than CTDAS with thus not accounting for the regrowth. In this particular case it is thus more relevant to evaluate the natural flux only. JSBACH on the other hand, has only assimilated two years of atmospheric CO2 data and thus obtain a slightly different global budget with larger natural and net land uptake than the other systems. Such feature will likely change with upcoming results that will have assimilated several years of atmospheric CO2 data. If we now consider the break down of the net land fluxes between North (above 30°N), Tropic and South (<30°S) (Figure 1) we obtain even larger differences between the CCDASs. While CTDAS and LSCE systems have a relatively similar uptake in the North, between 0.8 and 1.1 PgC/yr, Page 4 of 16 BETHY and JSBACH systems have a much larger uptake, between 1.8 and 2.2 PgC/yr. Note that DALEC provides a large positive flux to the atmosphere, using as a constraint, satellite NDVI, FluxNet, forest biomass and soil organic carbon observations, but not atmospheric CO2 data. Over the Tropics, few systems have more similar fluxes (except DALEC) with a small uptake in LSCE and BETHY (around 0.3 PgC/yr) and nearly neutral flux in CTDAS. JSBACH provides on the other hand a significant emission to the atmosphere (0.5 PgC/yr) while DALEC has the largest tropical land uptake, above 1. PgC/yr. The southern land is nearly neutral for most systems, i.e. between 0.3 and +0.3 PgC/yr, except for BETHY that has a large positive source (around 1.4 PgC/yr) that compensate for the large northern land sink. It is thus difficult from these results to draw strong conclusions about the tropical versus extratropical carbon fluxes. Figure 1: Global mean carbon budget for the period 2001-2009 for the five different “CCDAS”. A) Split of the global carbon balance between biomass burning, natural land as well as the total land flu. B) Split of the net land carbon fluxes for the North, Tropic, and South regions. Negative indicate a sink for the atmosphere. If we now consider the inter-annual variations (IAV) of the net terrestrial flux (natural plus fire fluxes, Figure 2), a few common features across the different systems are visible: First, we notice a significant trend over the last decade (after 2002) with increasing global land sink (around 0.2 PgC/yr) in all systems, including the DALEC system that does not use the integrated constraint from atmospheric CO2 observations. Such trend is primarily driven by the northern fluxes while over the tropics no coherent trend between the systems is obtained (not shown). Second, the year-to-year variations of the CO2 fluxes are in relatively good phase between the different CCDASs, although with significant differences in the amplitude (DALEC having much small year to year flux variation than the LSCE and BETHY systems). Prior to 2000, the LSCE and BETHY systems show a broad agreement in the flux IAV with still noticeable differences. For instance, the 1997-1998 El-nino anomaly is associated to a positive flux anomaly that reach a maximum in 1998 in the LSCE case but in 1997 in the BETHY case. The so called “years of the biosphere” after the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, associated to a maximum carbon uptake by the vegetation, are also different in the two models due to some differences in the timing of the respiration flux anomalies (not shown). Page 5 of 16 1 .5 Flux ( Pg C/ye a r ) 1 .0 0 .5 0 .0 -0 .5 -1 .0 -1 .5 -2 .0 -2 .5 -3 .0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Dat e BETH Y CCD AS / Te rre st ria l f lux / 0 5 Globa l La nd / Ye a rly m e a n CTEU CCD AS V 2 / Te rre st ria l f lux / 0 5 Globa l La nd / Ye a rly m e a n D ALEC CCD AS / Te rre st ria l f lux / 0 5 Globa l La nd / Ye a rly m e a n JSBACH CCD AS V 2 / Te rre st ria l f lux / 0 5 Globa l La nd / Ye a rly m e a n LSCE CCD AS V 3 0 / Te rre st ria l f lux / 0 5 Globa l La nd / Ye a rly m e a n Figure 2: Global annual net land terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes for the 5 CCDASs used in GEOCARBON. If we now consider the gross carbon fluxes, i.e. the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Ecosystem respiration (Reco), we can further investigate the sources of the net flux differences between the CCDASs. Figure 3 shows the GPP annual fluxes and annual flux anomalies for each system. We clearly see large differences in terms of mean annual GPP, with the LSCE system having the highest GPP (around 150 PgC/yr) and the BETHY system having twice lower GPP (around 75 GtC/yr). CTDAS, JSBACH and DALEC CCDASs provide values around 120 PgC/yr, a level that corresponds to the estimates from the data oriented statistical model of Jung et al. (2011). Despite large differences in terms of mean values, the year-to-year variations of the GPP are relatively similar between the different systems (figure 3, lower panel) with multi-annual variations. Figure 3: Global GPP for the five CCDASs used in GEOCARBON. a) annual mean values; b) annual anomalies in PgC/year. Finally, we investigated the spatial distribution of the net land carbon fluxes (Figure 4) averaged over the period 2001-2009 (we do not consider JSBACH that only covers 3 years). Large differences appear in the regional distribution of the net ecosystem fluxes, with the existence of both source and sink regions. The BETHY system provides the largest spatial contrasts with strong carbon emission (up to 500 gC/m2/yr) nearby large carbon uptake regions (up to 400 gC/m2/yr). These patterns are associated to the distribution of the Plant Functional Types (PFTs) used in Page 6 of 16 BETHY. The other systems have net sources and sinks per square meter that are less intense with CTDAS having the lowest flux intensity and more heterogeneous flux patterns. Despite these large differences, a few broad scale features may be drawn: Over tropical America, BETHY, DALEC and LSCE systems have a strong uptake over the Amazon basin while only CTDAS suggests a small source. Over North America, there is a tendency to have carbon uptake over the eastern part of United States. Over North Asia, most systems (except DALEC) tend to provide carbon uptake in eastern China, the northern forest and in particular northeast Siberia for BETHY. Over Africa, we observe a dipole with uptake in the equatorial forest and release in the tropical savanna regions for all systems, except CTDAS that provides a reverse pattern. Figure 4: Spatial distribution of the mean net ecosystem CO2 exchanges for 4 CCDAS approaches of GEOCARBON (mean flux over the 2001-2009 period). Positive values indicate emission to the atmosphere. 2.2 Comparison of CCDAS results with other approaches: continental land sink 2.2.1 Different approaches In order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the carbon fluxes over land and to estimate the contribution of the GEOCARBON data assimilation approaches, we have compared the results of our 5 Carbon Cycle data Assimilation Systems (CCDASs) to other approaches, namely: The results of 8 land dynamic global vegetation model run with a common forcing to estimate trends in the land carbon fluxes (TRENDY experiment); the simulations that were used (S2 scenario) correspond to fix land cover but changing climate and CO2 forcing (Sitch et al. 2014). The results of 10 land dynamic global vegetation models used within Earth System Models (ESM); we took the results of the historical runs made for the CMIP5 inter-comparison. Page 7 of 16 The estimated net land surface fluxes from 11 atmospheric inversions that were compared in Peylin et al. 2013. As revealed in Figure 7, there is a gradient of data-streams assimilated in these different approaches. While the DGVM rely directly on the processed embedded in the model, the CCDAS have further used several data streams to optimize the original model parameters and the inversions rely deeply on one particular data stream (atmospheric data) with a flux correction approach. The comparison of these different approaches should help to understand the strengths and weaknesses of data assimilation for estimation of the land carbon fluxes and stocks. We should first notice that the comparison is statistically biased given that we don't have the same number of model for each approach; in particular the CCDAS approach is only represented by 4 independent realizations. Figure 5: Different modeling approaches that will be compared in terms of net carbon exchange with the atmosphere: i) pure land ecosystem model (DGVM) with two sets of models (TRENDY and CMIP5 ensemble), ii) atmospheric inversions that represent a modification of DGVM prior fluxes to fit the atmospheric CO2 gradients and iii) the CCDAS which have assimilated the largest number of data streams. 2.2.2 Seasonal CO2 fluxes Figure 6 and Figure 7 display the mean seasonal cycle for of the natural land CO2 fluxes for two regions, Northern land (> 30°N) and Tropical land (30°S<->30°N) for the 4 different approaches described above. For the northern land, we first notice a very large spread for the DGVMs both in terms of amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. The amplitudes vary by a factor of roughly three, while the phase of the maximum carbon uptake varies by nearly two months between the different models. These differences are not due to the climate forcing as they are similar for the TRENDY models that have used the same climate forcing and for the CMIP5 model results. On the other hand, the atmospheric inversions present a very coherent seasonal cycle in the northern extra-tropics, with an amplitude of roughly 3 PgC/month and a maximum uptake always in July. The CCDAS results also present the same phase and nearly the same amplitude as the atmospheric inversions. Note that we have only 5 models for this approach, which complicate the statistical comparison with the other approaches. This analysis illustrates the strong constraint brought by the atmospheric data to constraint the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. It also suggests that there are enough degrees of freedom with the optimization of a few set of parameters to obtain the same fluxes than when correcting the DGVM fluxes themselves (atmospheric inversions). This is an important result that reveals the Page 8 of 16 importance of model calibration and the use of atmospheric CO2 data to constrain the seasonal cycle of land fluxes. Figure 6: Mean seasonal cycle of the natural carbon fluxes exchanged between the northern land and the atmosphere. In each panel the results from 4 different modeling approaches are displayed (8 TRENDY DGVMs, 10 CMIP5 DGVMs, 11 atmospheric inversions and 5 CCDAS). The shaded area represents the envelope of all models for each approach, while the grey lines represent the individual models. For the tropical land, the situation is different, with a seasonal cycle that is much smaller than for the North and that is controlled by the successions of dry and wet seasons. The model spread for each approach is relatively similar both in terms of amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. It is thus difficult to draw specific conclusions as for the strength of the data assimilation approaches. The atmospheric data are indeed relatively sparse over the Tropic, which partly explains the poor level of constrain brought with the atmospheric inversions. A more in-depth analysis of the inversion results could be made, given that part of the spread is due to two models only. The CCDAS results tend to have the smallest seasonal amplitude with no clear difference between the wet and the dry seasons. Such result should be taken with care, given the small number of CCDASs and needs also further investigations (beyond the time frame of GEOCARBON). Page 9 of 16 Figure 7: Mean seasonal cycle of the natural carbon fluxes exchanged between the Tropical land and the atmosphere. In each panel the results from 4 different modeling approaches are displayed (8 TRENDY DGVMs, 10 CMIP5 DGVMs, 11 atmospheric inversions and 5 CCDAS). The shaded area represents the envelope of all models for each approach, while the grey lines represent the individual models. 2.2.2 Trend and inter-annual variations of CO2 land fluxes Figure 8, Figure 9 and Figure 10 display the anomalies of the yearly mean natural land CO2 fluxes (yearly mean minus the mean over the whole period) for three regions, Northern land (> 30°N), Tropical land (30°S<->30°N) and Southern land (<30°S) for 3 different approaches described above (TRENDY, Inversions and CCDASs). Note that we did not consider the CMIP5 results given that the climate simulated by the earth system model are very different which preclude from a direct comparison of individual yearly anomalies. For the CCDAS, given the small number of models, we present both a time series with each individual models (lower left graph) and the same graphic but with a shaded areas to represent the model ensemble. For the Northern land, the TRENDY models show a large spread in the year to year net carbon fluxes with poor coherence in the inter-annual variations (IAV), except for a few periods where most model agree (i.e., larger uptake in 2004, smaller uptake in 2006, for example). Although each TRENDY model show a small trend with increasing sink over the 2000s, when we account for the overall model spread such trend is not clearly visible over the short 1990-2010 period. On the other hand, the atmospheric inversions show more coherence in the estimated northern land flux IAV, with for instance a positive flux anomaly in 1994 and 2003 not observed in the TRENDY models. The inversions show also a coherent and significant increase of the land carbon uptake during the last decade (2000s), compared to the 90s. Such trend of the atmospheric inversion results has been discussed more extensively in Peylin et al. (2013). If we now consider the CCDAS approaches, we do not find similar coherence between the 5 systems than for the inversions. If we exclude the JSBACH-CCDAS that only provides 3 years of fluxes (and that has used only two years of atmospheric CO2 data) we obtain also a trend during the 2000s with increasing land carbon sink. Like for the inversions the magnitude of such trend results from the fit to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations (their temporal evolution). We also note that the coherence of the CCDAS results and in particular the LSCE and BETHY systems is lower for the northern land fluxes than for the global fluxes as previously discussed (Figure 2). Indeed the correlation of the northern land flux anomalies between these two systems is close to zero over the 2 decades that are considered. Such Page 10 of 16 results is primarily due to differences in the respiration fluxes while the GPP IAVs tend to have a much stronger agreement than the net CO2 flux (not shown). Additional work is thus required to better optimize the model respiration flux, possibly using a larger set of observations related to soil carbon decomposition. Figure 8: Interannual variations of the yearly mean natural carbon fluxes exchanged between the Northern land and the atmosphere. In each panel the results from 3 different modeling approaches are displayed (8 TRENDY DGVMs, 11 atmospheric inversions and 5 CCDAS). The shaded area represents the envelope of all models for each approach, while the grey lines represent the individual models. For the CCDAS, one graph with the individual models (lower left) as well as the shaded version (lower right) are displayed. For the Tropical land, the IAV the carbon fluxes appear to be large and relatively coherent between the different models of each approach. These anomalies are controlled primarily by the El-nino events with large positive anomalies during these periods. The 1998 positive anomalies is visible in all DGVMs; the inversion results provide a similar anomaly but with few inversions indicating a bigger anomaly in 1997 than in 1998. The two CCDAS approaches, LSCE and BETHY provide also a stronger anomalous flux in 1997 than in 1998. Note that for this tropical region, LSCE and BETHY show a much bigger agreement in terms of phase and amplitude of the flux IAV compared to the North (see above). Over the 2000s, we notice some differences between the TRENDYDGVMs and the atmospheric inversions, especially in 2002 where the inversion indicate a strong positive anomaly not observed in the DGVMs. No clear signal is found over that period from the CCDAS, which cannot favor one or the other result. DALEC CCDAS provide little flux IAV over the tropics compared to the other CCDAS, which suggest that part of the IAV is dictated by the use of atmospheric inversions. If we consider the GPP fluxes (not shown), like for the North, we also find a larger agreement between LSCE and BETHY CCDAS (than for the net flux), which suggests that the respiration over the tropics needs to be further constrain to draw more clear and coherent messages for the flux IAV. Page 11 of 16 Figure 9: same as Figure 8 but for tropical land. For the Southern land (< 30°S), the carbon flux IAVs appear to be relatively coherent between the different models of each approach, like for the Tropics. For the DGVMs the phase of the anomalies are coherent but the amplitudes significantly differ between the models. The atmospheric inversions provide similar variations except in 1997-1998, where they show a large positive anomaly as in the Tropics. Either such anomalies correspond to difficulties of the atmospheric inversions to separate the tropical versus southern land fluxes, given the low density of station over the tropics or it reveals that most DGVMs do not capture the large fires associated to the El-nino event in 19971998 in the southern part of the tropics. The two CCDASs, BETHY and LSCE do not help to resolve this issue as they provide opposite flux anomaly for that period. During the 2000s, the different CCDAS provides similar flux IAV, except DALEC that has much small year-to-year flux variations. Figure 10: same as Figure 8 but for southern land. Page 12 of 16 2.3 Trend in the amplitude of the net CO2 fluxes Several papers have highlighted a recent trend in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, namely an increase of the seasonal cycle in the northern hemisphere by up to 50% over the past 50 years (Graven et al., 2013). Several factors have been proposed to explain this increase, including changes in oceanic fluxes and atmospheric transport of CO2, increased fossil-fuel emissions, the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change, and recently the intensification of agriculture (Zen et al. 2014 and Gray et al. 2014). However, the relative magnitude and latitudinal contribution of each are still debated. Figure 11 displays in the upper panel the signal observed in the atmosphere with increasing CO2 seasonal amplitude at Barrow and Mauna Loa sites (following Graven et al., 2013). In the lower panel it shows the normalized seasonal CO2 flux amplitude (with respect to the start of the simulation) for the Northern hemisphere from the different CCDASs. The main outcome is that current CCDASs do not provide any clear trend in the land ecosystem seasonal flux amplitude to explain the atmospheric signal. Given that the other possible contributors (ocean and fossil fuel fluxes) are unlikely to be the main driver, the current CCDASs still fail to represent such trend in the biosphere exchanges, although they have assimilated atmospheric CO2 observations. This suggests that current optimization schemes capture first order spatial and temporal gradients of atmospheric concentrations (trend in the mean concentration and mean spatial gradients) but not the changes in amplitude and the associated processes. Drivers of the seasonal amplitude flux changes for the northern ecosystems are either still missing or parameters associated to the existing drivers are not completely optimized with the current systems. Further investigations are needed to capture this important feature of atmospheric CO2 observations. Page 13 of 16 Figure 11: Temporal evolution of the seasonal amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 concentration at Point Barrow and Mauna Loa stations (upper graphics) and temporal evolution of the seasonal amplitude of the natural land CO2 fluxes of the northern hemisphere from the different CCDAS model, expressed relatively to the amplitude at t0 (lower graph). 2.4 Remaining challenges The synthesis of the CCDAS results described above highlighted particular strengths of a “Data Assimilation procedure” to better constrain the land carbon cycle and its drivers but also specific modeling challenges and issues to work on in order to fully exploit the approach: Atmospheric CO2 data act as global constraint to the overall land and ocean carbon budget; using them to optimize model parameters is promising but we should make sure the land modeling framework accounts for all surface sources and sinks of CO2 and in particular the disturbances due to biomass burning and possibly lateral flow of carbon to the ocean via rivers. More specifically the differences between CCDAS estimates of net ecosystem exchange depend on the treatment of biomass burning. Comparison of the natural fluxes should always account properly for growth and net CO2 flux due to biomass burning. Page 14 of 16 Most of the current CCDAS (except DALEC) do not use observations of carbon pools (i.e., either forest above ground biomass or soil carbon content), that may provide strong constraints on the slow component of the land carbon cycle and may change the current estimates of key parameters linked to respirations and “turn-over time”. A natural follow up of GEOCARBON CCDAS results is to investigate the impact of the land model parameter optimization on the future carbon cycle and see whether it decreases the current model spread. Such effort will follow from the dynamic initiated in GEOCARBON. 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