The prognosis of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes since 1996-1998. The Skaraborg Diabetes Register Grete Garberg1, Monica Löwestam2, Salmir Nasic1, Kristina Bengtsson Boström3 1 Department of Ophthalmology, Skaraborg Hospital, Skövde, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Lund University Hospital, University of Lund, 3R&D Centre Skaraborg Primary Care Reprint requests and correspondence to Grete Garberg, MD Department of Ophthalmology, Skaraborg Hospital, Skövde S-541 xx Skövde, Sweden. E-mail grete.garberg@vgregion.se This research was funded by the Skaraborg research and development council, Skaraborg SkaS fonder?? Manus 20091022 Total word count: Skall vara xxxx max. Vilken tidskrift skall vi sända till? Acta Opthalmologica Key points xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx Keywords diabetes mellitus type 2, retinopathy, ophthalmological investigation, database Abstract Purpose: To investigate the prognosis of eye complications in diabetic patients during 10 year follow up and the extent of screening. Methods: Data from the Diabetes Screening Program of 1258 diabetic patients (104 of type 1, 1138 of type 2 and 14 with clinically indeterminate type) with clinical debut 1996-1998 from the Skaraborg Diabetes Register (SDR) were retrieved. Their ophthalmological records were examined, and the consecutive data from all visits during the period comprised occurrence of retinopathy and other complications, laser treatment and visual outcome. Results: Seven hundred and seventy three were type 2 diabetes and ≤ 70 years at diagnosis, and 81% of them have been examined some time. Visual result was noticed from 548 patients (of 659 still alive at the last registration), and 527 (96%) had visual acuity above limit for driving license (0.5 Snellen). Laser treatment was performed on 19 patients; of these 1 were treated for other vascular diseases. Among the 9 with severe visual impairment (Snellen <0.3), at least 6 had other diagnoses than diabetic complications. Mean glycosylated haemoglobin (Hba1c) at diagnosis was 6.7, five years later it was 6.6. Retinopathy appears about 1 year earlier if HbA1c ≥ 7 at diagnosis, anti hypertensive treatment seems to protect from retinopathy, but BMI (Body Mass Index) at diagnosis does not affect retinopathy development. Conclusions: Most diabetic patients do well during the first 10 years after diagnosis. The older patients often have ophthalmological co-morbidity contributing to visual impairment. Key words: Diabetes mellitus type 2, Diabetic retinopathy, retinal photo screening, longitudinal study Word count: 248 Introduction Screening for retinopathy is regarded to be beneficial and cost effective in preventing visual loss in diabetic patients (Squirrel & Talbot 2003) and was introduced in Skaraborg in the nineteen eighties. Local guidelines for screening were based on the national Swedish ones, and have been modified during the follow up period of 10 years (table 1). Skaraborg, a rural area of Västra Götaland in the southwest of Sweden, has a population of approximately 250 000 inhabitants. The population is stable, especially among adults. Diabetic patients are mostly been cared for by public primary care (about 84%). Those with severe complications are cared for by specialized clinics (type1 and type 2 diabetics). Very few patients are cared for by private practitioners. Skaraborg Diabetes Register (SDR) was established in 1991, and after a few years comprised most prevalent patients and incorporated consecutively all newly diagnosed diabetic patients, type 1 and type 2, mainly from primarily care. SDR was closed in 2004 and the patients were thereafter registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). The capture rate of SDR in 1996 was 88%; 97% of patients receiving pharmaceutical treatment and 80% of those with diet only (Berger & al. 1999). Diabetes retinopathy is the main reason for visual impairment among people of working ages. Appropriate treatment of retinopathy at time reduces the risk of severe visual loss by more than 50 % (ETDRS report no 9 1991). Severe retinopathy was seen at diagnosis by 8% of male and 4% female patients at fist visit in Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) 30 (Kohner et al. 1998). Diabetic patients are often asymptomatic even at quite advanced levels of retinopathy and type 2 diabetes patients should therefore be examined at diagnosis (Kohner et al. 1998). The Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy XV indicates an association between maculopathy and higher levels of glycosylated haemoglobin during 10 years follow up of type 1 diabetes patients (Klein & al. 1995). In the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) patients with better blood glucose (BG) and blood-pressure (BP) control have reduced eye complication rate in type 2 diabetes. Tight BG-control does not seem to reduce total mortality though (UKPDS 33 1998, UKPDS 38 1998). Not only present, but even previous metabolic control seems to affect the progression of retinopathy after ten years in type1 diabetes, more pronounced for adults than adolescents (White & al. 2010). Aggressive control of known risk factors like blood glucose and blood pressure affects the risk of background, but not for proliferative retinopathy (PDR) (Brown & al. 2003). In the UKPDS 50 it seems to be an association between retinopathy, baseline glycaemia and glycaemic exposure (Stratton & al. 2001). The ACCORD trial (Chew et al. 2011) showed lower progression of retinopathy with tight blood sugar control (HbA1c<6%) and blood lipid medication, but no effect of tighter blood pressure (BP) control. The aim of this study was to investigate the screening frequency and occurrence of retinopathy during 10 years follow up in a population based cohort of patients that were diagnosed with diabetes in 1996-1998. Over-weight is associated with diabetes type 2 and hypertension, and might be related to HbA1c. Therefore we also wanted to investigate the relationship between HbA1c, BP or BMI at diagnosis and later complications. Material and methods Patients from the SDR diagnosed with diabetes from 1 January 1996 until 31 December 1998 were specifically registered, and those 65 years and younger were investigated for development of islet antibodies (Berger & al. 1998). Patients ≤ 70 years at diagnosis were supposed to participate in the screening program, and are the basis of this study. Retinal photo screening took place in four clinics in Skaraborg. Standard photos included two fields (60 degrees) of each eye, one with macula and one with optic papilla in centre. Visual acuity, when available, is measured by Snellen charts. The extent of the screening has been relatively constant during the follow-up period, but there have been a few modifications in the criteria for screening (table 1). Grading was made mainly by 3 persons using a modified grading from AAO’s Focal Points (AAO focal points 1993) (table2). Data from ophthalmological and screening records for all available patients as close to debut of diabetes as possible, after about 5 years duration and the last available (ca 10 years duration) were registered. The degree of retinopathy, presence of significant maculopathy, laser treatment (focal/grid or pan retinal photocoagulation (PRP)), visual acuity and reasons for visual impairment, other than diabetic retinopathy, were noticed. Retinopathy from the worse and visual acuity of the better eye was used. Patients treated for maculopathy with no residual oedema or exudate, were noted as no maculopathy in the screening, but registered as treated for maculopathy on subsequent visits and are included among patients with maculopathy, but some might be missing. Patients treated by PRP even in a pre proliferative (PPDR) state were noted as PDR. From the referrals information was retrieved on date of diabetes diagnosis, HbA1c level, systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP), anti hypertension treatment, nephropathy (micro albuminuria >200µmol/l, diagnosis of uraemia, or kidney transplantation), neuropathy (impaired vibration sense, tendon reflex or autonomous neuropathy (ortostatism, gastro paresis or erectile dysfunction)). The BP and HbA1c were incomplete from referral so BP and HbA1c, as well as BMI are from SDR. Statistics: SBSS is used for statistic analyses. Cox regression analysis is used for survival function. HbA1c=7 was chosen as statistic breakpoint because that level was the therapeutic aim during the investigation period. Results The material comprises 1,258 people with a registered debut of diabetes between 1996 and 1998 (fig1). In total we recalled records of 488 patients within 2-3 years of debut, and 949 patients have been examined at some time (table 3 and 4). Patients >70 years at debut were not regularly part of the screening, but some were included, and others had ophthalmic records from other reasons. Patients ≤70 years at debut (n= 877) should be part of the screening program from the beginning; 113 were type 1, 9 type 0 (not defined by the referral), and 764 type 2 (patients <65 without islet-antibodies). Patients typed as 0 are most likely type 2 and are here considered as type 2. This study is based on the 773 patients with type 2 and ≤ 70 years at diagnosis. We have results from 639 (83%) at some time during follow up (table 6); at first visit 288, second visit 540 and 559 at last visit. The mortality before September 2009 was 114; which means that we have results from 85% of the 659 still alive at examination 3. Visual acuity was above level of demands for driving licence in 527 of 548 (96%). Among 9 patients with severe visual impairment (<0.3) at least 6 have ocular co morbidity; only 4 of them had significant maculopathy and was treated by laser. One patient was legally blind (visus<0.1 Snellen) because of diabetes complications. Mean HbA1c at diagnosis (HbA1c96) is 6.7, and at 5 years duration (HbA1c01) 6.6 (fig 5). HbA1c96 seems to be relevant for development of retinopathy. The mean HbA1c96 was 7.4(±0.16)% among those who developed retinopathy, and 6.5(±0,07)% in the group who did not (p<0,001). The first sign of retinopathy appears about 1 year later if HbA1c96≤7.0 than if it is >7.0 (p<0.001 chi square) (table6, fig4). There is no statistical relation between HbA1c96<7 and development of maculopathy. If we look at HbA1c96 >8, or >10 there is a tendency, but there are too few individuals for statistical significance. However there is a higher risk for maculopathy with higher HbA1c96 if systolic blood pressure at diagnosis (SBP96)<140 (fig7, table 8). HbA1c01>7(at the second assessment point) (table5) however, seems to relate to development of maculopathy (p<0.001). The difference in maculopathy related to HbA1c96 seems to increase with time (fig6). The relation between SBP and retinopathy is more complicated. SBP96 (SBP at diagnosis) is not significant for the development of retinopathy or maculopathy, but there is a lower incidence of retinopathy (but not of maculopathy) among patients treated for hypertension. Patients treated for hypertension have a lower HbA1c at diagnosis, though. High HbA1c96 is a higher risk factor for maculopathy if SBP96<140 (fig 8). The BMI at debut (BMI96) does not seem to influence the development of neither maculopathy nor retinopathy. Conclusion and discussion The primary care in Skaraborg has been well established and has a good work up for diabetic and hypertensive patients. It is mostly publically run, and attending the SDR (and later NDR) and screening program has been encouraged. The cooperation between public primary care and the eye clinic has worked well, and attendance rate of screening was relatively good at the last occasion The grading of retinopathy was made for clinical use and not for research, and is maybe too coarse for statistical analyses, but endpoints like laser treatment and visual acuity gives some information on complication rate. We might have missed some patients with maculopathy because of the registration during screening (see “Methods”), but the visual results, although we did not use ETDRS charts, should be relatively correct. Patients treated for hypertension have been more intensively screened for diabetes. Diabetic patients with anti hypertensive treatment were therefore probably detected earlier, which may explain why anti hypertensive treatment seems to protect from retinopathy. In DIRECTProtect 2 (Sjølie et al. 2008) they found that ACE-inhibitors may reduce existing retinopathy. We do not have any information of what kind of anti hypertensive treatment our patients had at diagnosis, but ACE-inhibitors were not frequently used in late 90-ties. Hypertension and diabetes is more frequent among obese people, and we expected that people with higher BMI96 would have higher HbA1c at diagnosis and develop more retinopathy, but we could not see any relationship between BMI at diagnosis and retinopathy, nether could we see a relationship between SBP96 per se and retinopathy. In the UKPDS 38 there was a benefit of reduction of BP (aim SBP < 150mmHg). The ACCORD (Chew et al. 2010) could not see any benefit of reducing BP, but their patients were relatively well controlled with mean SBP (systolic blood pressure) 137mmHg. That is consistent with our results; with initial SBP < 140mmHg, the HbA1c level is more important for development of maculopathy, and with SBP > 140, maculopathy is more related to blood pressure level. Debut often precedes discovery for several years in type 2 diabetes. At first examination 26/357 (7%) of our patients had any retinopathy, and 4 (0.1%) had more severe, similar to the Beaver Dam Eye Study (Klein & al. 1992), It is therefore desirable to have a first examination as close to diagnosis as possible. The increased rate of retinopathy among patients with HbA1c>7 at diagnosis, might be due to a longer duration at diagnosis at higher HbA1c, but also to the “memory”-effect described in DCCT/EDIC (White & al. 2010). Long duration and/or high levels of HbA1c may result in more end-glycation of proteins, as well as more oxidative stress and more harm to the retina. Diabetic patients often express their fear of visual impairment, but the risk seems to be low at least the fist ten years. Totally we had 9/548 (0.02%) visually impaired (Snellen acuity<0.3) among patients type 2 ≤70 years at diagnosis, and 1 legally blind (<0.1 Snellen). Of the 22 blind right eyes and 16 left eyes only one right and one left eye did not have any other known reason than diabetes for their blindness. Totally 38 blind eyes at about 10 years duration is in same magnitude as total 30 legally blind eyes from 1148 patients after 7.5 years in the UKPDS 69 (Matthews & al. 2004). Many older patients have other complicating eye diseases like glaucoma, retinal vascular diseases and age related macular degeneration (AMD), contributing to their visual impairment. Theoretically there might be an association through oxidative stress and inflammation between diabetes and those diagnoses. Diabetes is considered as a risk factor in retinal vein occlusion, and often implies more complications (more ischemia) whenever it occurs in diabetics. The Oxford Record Linkage Study could see a relation between diabetes and AMD, glaucoma (neovascular glaucoma included), retinal vein and artery occlusion as well as cataract (Goldacre & al. 2012). The Beaver Dam Eye Study (Klein & al. 1992) didn’t find any relationship between AMD and diabetes. For glaucoma there is no consensus on whether diabetes is a risk factor (Primus & al. 2011). Complication rate for type1 diabetics, and probably for type 2, has decreased with debut 1996-1998, related to populations with debut 20-30 years earlier due to better follow up and treatment in well developed countries (Klein & Klein 2010). Ten years of follow up is relatively short. Many diabetics with high age at debut, and restricted expected remaining life time, do not have time to develop significant retinopathy. But we can not conclude that there is an upper age limit for including diabetics in a screening program. There was no difference in development of retinopathy in different age groups. As we see an abrupt increase of retinopathy after 10 yeas, it would be interesting to make a new follow up at 15 years. We conclude that most diabetic patients do well during 10 years follow up. Patients with severe visual impairment often have ocular co morbidity, and that the extent of screening is reasonable. Ref 1. D M Squirrel, J F Talbot. Screening for diabetic retinopathy. J R Soc Med 2003; 96:273276 2. E M Kohner, S J Aldington, I M Stratton, S E Manley, R R Holman, D R Matthews, R C Turner. Diabetes Retinopathy at Diagnosis of Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus and Associated Risk Factors. UKPDS 30. Arch Ophtalmol 1998; 116 (3): 297-303 3. Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Research Group. Early photocoagulation treatment for diabetic retinopathy, ETDRS report number 9 Ophthalmology 1991; 98:766-85 4. R Klein, B E Klein, S E Moss, K J Cruickshanks. The Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy XV. Ophthalmology 1995; 102 (1):7-16 5. UKPDS 33. Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes. The Lancet 1998; 352: 837-852 6. UKPDS 38. Tight blood pressure control and risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications in type 2 diabetes. BMJ 1998; 317: 703-713 7. N H White, W Sun P A Cleary, W V Tamborlane, R P Danis, D P Hainsworth, M D Davis. Effect of Prior Intensive Therapy in Type I Diabetes on 10-Year Progression of Retinopathy in the DCCT/EDIC: Comparison of Adults and Adolescents. Diabetes 2010; 59 (5):12441253 8. J B Brown, K L Pedula K H Summers. Diabetic Retinopathy. Contemporary prevalence in a well controlled population. Diabetes Care 2003; 26: (9) 2637-2642 9: I M Stratton, E M Kohner, S J Aldington, R C Turner, R R Holman, S E Manley, D R Matthews. Risk factors for incidence and progression of retinopathy in Type II diabetes over 6 years from diagnosis. UKPDS 50 Diabetologia 2001; 44: 156-163. 10. B Berger, G Stenström, Y-F Chang, G Sundkvist. The Prevalence of Diabetes in a Swedish population of 280411 Inhabitants. Diabetes Care 1998; 21 (4): 546-548. 11.B Berger, G Stenström, G Sundkvist. Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of diabetes in a Large Population. A report from the Skaraborg Diabetes Register. Diabetes Care 1999; 22 (5):773-778 12. American Association of Ophthalmology (AAO) Focal Points, September 1993 13. D R Matthews, I M Stratton, S J Aldington. Risk of progression of retinopathy and vision loss related to tight blood pressure control in type 2 diabetes, UKDPS 69.Arch Ophthalmology 2004; 122 (11): 1631-40 14. R Klein, B E K Klein, S E Scot, K L P Linton. Retinopathy in Adults with Newly Diagnosed Diabetes Mellitus. The Beaver Dam Eye Study. Ophtalmology 1992; 99 (1): 58-62 14 B Diabetes, hyperglycemia and age related maculopathy 15. R Klein, B E K Klein. Are Individuals With Diabetes Seeing Better? Diabetes 2010; 59 (8): 1853-1860. 16. S Primus, A Harris, B Siesky, G Guidiboni. Diabetes: a risk factor for glaucoma? Br. Journal of Ophtalmology 2011; 95: 1621-1622. 17. M J Goldacre, C J Wotton, T D L Keenan. Risk of selected eye diseases in people admitted to hospital for hypertension or diabetes mellitus: record linkage studies. Br J Ophthalmol 2012;96(6):872-876 18 E Y Chew, W T Ambrosius, M D Davis, ACCORD 19 Sjöllie et al. DIRECT-Protect 2 Effect of condesartan on progression and regression of retinopathy Lancet 2008 vol 372 Oct 2008. Legend to Figures Figure 1. Types of diabetes mellitus are as stated by the clinicians. Figure in bold are patients investigated in the current study. Figure 2. HbA1c at diagnosis was 7.4 ± 0.16 % in patients with retinopathy compared to 6.5± 0.07 % in patients without retinopathy, p<0,001. Signs of retinopathy appeared 1 year earlier in patients with HbA1c ≤7.0 % compared to those with HbA1c >7.0, p<0.001. Table 1 Criteria of inclusion Before 2000 After 2000 Type* ** *** “ Table2 Age at debut Type* Duration at first screening episode Screening interval (no retinopathy) <70 years 2 5 years 2 years “ <40 years 1 5 years 1-2 years” >40 years 1 0 years 1-2 years” Dietary treated 5 and 10 years **” >70 years 1 and 2 Excluded – No limit 1 and 2 0 years 2-3 years Dietary treated 0 years *** 1 Insulin dependent 2 Non-insulin dependent Excluded after 10 years Excluded until medically treated Excluded if >72 years old Table I Grading of retinopathy in patients from the Skaraborg Diabetes Registry 1996-1998 Retinopathy grade 0 I (mild) II (moderate) III (pre-proliferative) IV (proliferative) Significant maculopathy Treated macular oedema/no maculopathy Description No retinopathy At least one MA, few retinal H and/or HE, nerve fiber infarcts, SE More MA, H, HE and/or SE PPR (several MA, H, SE and/or venous beading and/or IRMA) PR in periphery of retina or in papilla or treated with pan-retinal photocoagulation HE, retinal thickening < 500µ from foeva or ≥1 disc area within 1 disc diameter from foeva No residual oedema or exudate MA, microaneuysm, H, hemorrages, HE, hard exudates,IRMA, intraretinal microangiopathies; PPR, pre-proliferative retinopathy; PR proliferatibve retinopathy; SE, soft exudates Results Cohort A (n= 1258) Number in register Examination* Number examined Dead Any retinopathy Maculopathy Visus Proliferative Other reason Examined >0,5 < 0,3 Laser treatment Mac Panret Type1 106 A B C 75 97 95 1 1 4 5 11 24 0 3 6 0 2 4 70 97 95 68 96 91 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 2 4 0 1 4 Type 2 1138 (1 secondary) A B C 421 607 663 79 190 289 31 86 157 4 18 29 1 3 9 392 650 661 367 612 601 17 27 26 7 9 7 4 10 18 2(1”) 4(2””) 10(5”””) Type 0 14 A B C 5 4 2 9 11 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1258 A B C 502 768 763 89 206 305 37 100 165 6 21 35 1 6 13 465 748 759 438 709 684 17 26 28 9 10 8 4 11 22 2(1”) 7(2””) 14(5”””) Table 3 * A = first examination 1996-2000 B = second examination 2001-2003 C = third examination, latest “ 1 patient with branch vein occlusion (BRVO) “” 2 patients with BRVO “”” 1 patient with central vein occlusion (CRVO), 2 with arterial occlusion, 2 with BRVO Table 4 Patients ≤ 70 at diagnosis with diabetes mellitus type 2 Number of patients Examination 1 Examination 2 Examination 3 1996-1998 2000-2002 2003- August 2009§ Number examined 288 540 559 Any retinopathy 21 76 144 (25.6%) Maculopathy 3 15 40 (5.7%) Proliferative 0 2 7(1.4%) Laser treatment 3 7 19 (3.4%) A maculopathy 3 7 18 B scatter 0 1 6 (1BRVO) 264 541 548 retinopathy Visual acuity Number examined ≥0.5 259 514 527 ≤0.3 3 5 9 3 5 6 20* 53** 114*** Other reason for visus< 0.3 Mortality *Before 01/01/99, ** Before 01/01/03, *** Before 10/08/09, § last examination 17 Table 5 Test Statisticsa HbA1c_1 Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W HbA1c_2 HbA1c_3 1780,000 3033,000 4742,000 22486,000 99174,000 122597,000 -1,562 -3,754 -1,839 ,118 ,000 ,066 Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) a. Grouping Variable: maculopati at any examination Table 6 Means and Medians for Survival Time Meana Median 95% Confidence Interval HBA1C96_7 Estimate Std. Lower Upper Error Bound Bound 95% Confidence Interval Estimate Std. Lower Upper Error Bound Bound <7 11,318 ,205 10,916 11,720 11,937 ,067 11,807 12,068 >=7 10,257 ,195 9,875 10,638 11,346 ,115 11,120 11,571 Overall 10,943 ,154 10,641 11,246 11,639 ,148 11,348 11,929 a. Estimation is limited to the largest survival time if it is censored. Table7 BP96_reg * ret_status Crosstabulation ret_status BTB96_reg No treatment Count % within BTB96_reg Hypertension Count treatment Total % within BTB96_reg Count % within BTB96_reg No retionopathy Any retinopathy Total 322 140 462 69,7% 30,3% 100,0% 172 50 222 77,5% 22,5% 100,0% 494 190 684 72,2% 27,8% 100,0% 18 Table 8 Variables in the Equation B SE Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 95,0% CI for Exp(B) Lower SBP96_reg Upper ,105 ,038 7,784 1 ,005 1,111 1,032 1,196 HBA1C96_reg 2,253 ,699 10,399 1 ,001 9,518 2,420 37,436 HBA1C96_reg*SBP96_reg -,014 ,005 7,688 1 ,006 ,986 ,976 ,996 19 Figure1: Illustration of the cohort Population distribution 1258 (cohort A) deb 1996-1998 (305 dead) 877 debut< 70 years (cohort B) (118 dead) 765 type 2 104 type 1 381 deb > 70 years (cohort C) (187 dead) 8 type 0 403 type 2 2 type 1 6 type 0 20 Fig 2 Retinopathy related to BMI at diagnosis Fig 3 relation between systolic blood pressure at diagnosis (SBP96) and retinopathy 21 Fig 4 Retinopathy related to HbA1c 96 and duration in years 22 Fig 5 Distribution of HbA1c96 and HbA1c01 23 Fig 6 Maculopathy related to HbA1c96 and duration in years. 24 Fig 7 Relation BP96/ Hba1c96 and development of maculopathy 25