7.SP.5
Probability Learning Cycle
Goal: Students will be able to understand the probability of a chance event is a number between
0 and 1. Numbers closer to 1 indicate a likely event and numbers closer to 0 indicate an unlikely
event.
Develop: Brainstorming Activity and Number Line
Anticipate:
*Students may need clarification on the meanings of the different words (certain, likely,
unlikely, impossible)
*Ideas for student answers:
Certain: breathing air, blinking,
Likely: eat dinner, talk on cell phone, do homework
Unlikely: do homework, earthquake in Utah, snow in June
Impossible: pigs flying, going to the sun
*Remember that something that is certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible to one person
may not be to another person
Vocabulary:
*probability
*certain
*likely
*unlikely
*impossible
Solidify: Horse Race Activity and Theoretical Probability Activity
Anticipate:
*Students may pick the horse that has a probability of 0 to win
*Students may pick horses with a low probability of winning
*Students may try to move their horse forward the number on the sum of the dice,
make sure they understand the sum of the dice is the horse that moves but that the horse
only moves ONE space
*Second horse race students will have a better understanding of which horse to pick
*During theoretical activity students may come up with different tables to show answers
Practice: Exploring Likely and Unlikely Worksheet
Anticipate:
*Students may have to review place value
*Students may need clarification on the word digit
*Students may need clarification on what evenly divided by means
BRAINSTORM ACTIVITY
1. List 5 events that would belong in each category according to you as a student.
CERTAIN
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
IMPOSSIBLE
2. Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability of 0 means impossible and a
probability of 1 means certain. Within your group pick 15 events from your lists above
and place them on the probability line.
0__________________________________________________________________________1
HORSE RACE INSTRUCTIONS:
Each student will be given a copy of the horse race game board. Each student puts a marker on
the horse of his choice. After the teacher rolls the dice, the student moves the horse whose
number is the sum of the dice ahead ONE space. For example, if a six and a three are rolled, the
students who have chosen Horse #9 moves their horse forward one space. The horses that cross
the finish line first wins. PLAY THE GAME A SECOND TIME WITH STUDENTS PICKING
A DIFFERENT HORSE.
THEORETICAL ACTIVITY INSTRUCTIONS:
Students get into groups and decide the probability of each horse (sum of the dice) winning.
HORSE RACE GAME BOARD
EXPLORING LIKELY AND UNLIKEY
*see attached worksheet
RESOURCES:
Our task ideas were taken from the following websites:
http://www.brainpopjr.com/math/data/basicprobability/grownups.weml
http://www.teachervision.fen.com/tv/printables/Math_4_PS_12-6.pdf
http://www.caesl.org/toolkit/tools/Horse_Race.pdf