Supplementary tables
eTable 1. Description of vaccines against each subtype as well as circulating strains in both
trials.
HK trial
A/Brisbane/59/2007(H1
Trivalent
N1)-like virus
inactive
influenza vaccine
08/091
A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N
2)-like virus
B/Brisbane/60/2008like virus
-
B/Brisbane/60/2008like virus
A/Solomon
Trivalent
Islands/3/2006 (H1N1)inactive
influenza vaccine like virus
07/082
A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3
N2) -like virus
B/Malaysia/2506/2004
-like virus
A/Solomon
Live attenuated
influenza vaccine Islands/3/2006 (H1N1) like virus
07/083
A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3
N2) -like virus
B/Malaysia/2506/2004
-like virus
A/Uruguay/716/2007(H3
N2)-like virus
-
Circulating
Strain
A/California/7/2009(H1
N1)-like virus
US trial
Circulating
Strain
-
Each 0.5ml dose of the TIV contained 15μg of hemagglutinin from each of the following strains:
A/Brisbane/59/2007(H1N1)-like, A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2)-like, and B/Brisbane/60/2008-like
(Victoria lineage) strains
1
Each 0.5ml dose of the TIV contained 15μg of hemagglutinin for each of A/Solomon
Islands/3/2006 (H1N1), A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3N2), and B/Malaysia/2506/2004 (B/Victoria
lineage)
2
3
Each 0.2ml dose of the live attenuated vaccine contained 106.5–7.5 fluorescent focus units of live
attenuated influenza virus reassortants of the same strains
1
eTable 2. Descriptive Characteristics of Participants Recruited in the Hong Kong (HK) Trial, 2009–10;
and in the United States (US) Trial, 2007–8. Total participants N = 773 in the HK trial and N = 1952 in
the US trial. P-values are calculated by Pearson’s chi-square test, comparing proportions with RT-PCR
confirmed infection within each study arm.
TIV
Placebo
(N = 465)
(N=308)
Hong Kong trial
n
%
n
%
6–8
164
35
99
32
9–11
147
32
106
34
12–17
154
33
103
33
Male
241
52
168
55
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09a
10
2
5
2
Influenza Bb
10
2
21
7
Age group, years
RT-PCR-confirmed infections
Live attenuated
United States trial
Inactivated vaccine
Placebo
(N = 813)
(N = 325)
vaccine
(N = 814)
n
%
n
%
n
%
18–35
736
90
728
90
300
94
36–50
78
10
85
10
25
6
Male
320
39
294
36
124
38
53
7
22
3
30
9
Age group, years
RT-PCR-confirmed influenza
A(H3N2) infectionc
a
p = 0.80.
p= 0.003.
c
p < 0.001.
b
2
eTable 3. Probability Distribution of Hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) Titers and the Risk of
Infection per HAI Titer Interval for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and Influenza B in the HK Trial.
Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09
Influenza B
Titer
Proportion
Risk of infection
Proportion
Risk of infection
<1:10
0.54 (0.50, 0.59)
0.04 (0.02, 0.06)
0.77 (0.74, 0.80)
0.05 (0.03, 0.07)
1:10 — 1:20
0.01 (0.00, 0.01)
0.20 (0.01, 0.61)
0.02 (0.01, 0.03)
0.06 (0.00, 0.22)
1:20 — 1:40
0.02 (0.01, 0.03)
0.10 (0.00, 0.38)
0.06 (0.04, 0.08)
0.06 (0.01, 0.14)
1:40 — 1:80
0.08 (0.06, 0.11)
0.03 (0.00, 0.09)
0.05 (0.03, 0.06)
0.03 (0.00, 0.09)
1:80 — 1:160
0.14 (0.11, 0.15)
0.02 (0.00, 0.05)
0.05 (0.04, 0.07)
0.02 (0.00, 0.09)
1:160 — 1:320
0.12 (0.10, 0.15)
0.02 (0.00, 0.07)
0.04 (0.02, 0.05)
0.04 (0.00, 0.12)
1:320 — 1:640
0.06 (0.04, 0.08)
0.04 (0.00, 0.13)
0.01 (0.00, 0.02)
0.10 (0.00, 0.34)
1:640 — 1:1280
0.02 (0.01, 0.04)
0.08 (0.00, 0.27)
0.00 (0.00, 0.00)
0.33 (0.01, 0.84)
1:1280 — 1:2560
-
-
0.00 (0.00, 0.01)
0.25 (0.01, 0.69)
3
eTable 4. Probability Distribution of Hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) Titers and the Risk of
Infection per HAI Titer Interval for Influenza A(H3N2) in the US Trial.
Influenza A(H3N2)
Titer
Proportion
Risk of infection
<1:4
0.23 (0.18, 0.29)
0.34 (0.31, 0.38)
1:4 — 1:8
0.26 (0.18, 0.35)
0.14 (0.12, 0.17)
1:8 — 1:16
0.10 (0.04, 0.16)
0.14 (0.11, 0.17)
1:16 — 1:32
0.11 (0.04, 0.20)
0.08 (0.06, 0.10)
1:32 — 1:64
0.13 (0.06, 0.23)
0.09 (0.07, 0.11)
1:64 — 1:128
0.10 (0.04, 0.19)
0.09 (0.07, 0.11)
1:128 — 1:256
0.08 (0.02, 0.19)
0.05 (0.03, 0.07)
1:256 — 1:512
0.08 (0.01, 0.21)
0.03 (0.02, 0.05)
1:512 — 1:1024
0.14 (0.02, 0.36)
0.02 (0.01, 0.03)
1:1024 — 1:2048
0.25 (0.01, 0.71)
0.00 (0.00, 0.01)
1:2048 — 1:4096
-
-
0.17 (0.01, 0.53)
0.01 (0.00, 0.01)
>1:4096
4
eTable 5. Posterior Mean Log-likelihoods for Functional Forms of Protection Curve, by Subtype and
Interpolation Method. As the parameter dimensionality is the same for all models, absolute differences
between the means of 10 or more points indicate overwhelming evidence.
Posterior mean log-likelihoods
Method 1
Mean
95% CrI
Method 2
Method 3
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 – HK
Log titer
-3,266
-3,321, -3,243
-3,664
-3,675, -3,653
-3,617
-3,629, -3,606
Titer
-11,152
-11,159, -11,145
-11,488
-11,495, -11,483
-11,258
-11,263, -11,253
Influenza B – HK
Log titer
-3,824
-3,833, -3,815
-4,394
-4,403, -4,386
-4,277
-4,287, -4,267
Titer
-12,469
-12,483, -12,475
-13,023
-13,029, -13,018
-12,609
-12,613, -12,606
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
Log titer
-5556
-5591, -5524
-7219
-7243, -7194
-7329
-7350, -7306
Titer
-28,285
-28,302, -28,270
-30,011
-30,026, -29,996
-28,285
-28,302, -28,270
Abbreviations: CrI, Credible interval.
5
eTable 6. Absolute Decrease in Infection Probability Over Duration of Influenza Season.
Posterior mean and 95% credible intervals (CrI) for the percentage point difference are
tabulated. Positive differences mean the vaccine is protective relative to the placebo.
Method 1
Method 2
Method 3
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09
– HK
-0.05
-0.17, 0.06
-0.08
-0.26, 0.08
-0.09
-0.26, 0.07
Influenza B – HK
0.05
0.02, 0.10
0.07
0.03, 0.12
0.06
0.02, 0.10
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
(live attenuated vaccine)
0.00
0.00, 0.01
0.00
0.00, 0.01
0.00
0.00, 0.01
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
(inactivated vaccine)
0.01
0.00, 0.02
0.01
0.00, 0.02
0.01
0.00, 0.02
6
eTable 7. Relative Risk of Infection Comparing With Placebo Over Duration of Influenza Season.
Posterior mean and 95% credible intervals (CrI) for the risk ratio (vaccine relative to placebo) are
tabulated.
Method 1
Method 2
Method 3
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 –
HK
1.44
0.74, 2.64
1.43
0.80, 2.70
1.41
0.79, 2.60
Influenza B – HK
0.47
0.29, 0.70
0.52
0.33, 0.78
0.52
0.33, 0.78
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
(live attenuated vaccine)
0.94
0.63, 1.36
0.94
0.63, 1.37
0.92
0.61, 1.36
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
(inactivated vaccine)
0.46
0.28, 0.71
0.47
0.29, 0.74
0.47
0.28, 0.74
7
eTable 8. Posterior Distribution of the Ratio of RT-PCR Confirmed Infections to All
Infections, 𝜃, and Its Reciprocal. Posterior mean and 95% credible intervals (CrI) are
tabulated.
Method 1
Method 2
Method 3
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Mean
95% CrI
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 –
HK
5.40
3.89, 7.15
9.70
7.46,
12.26
10.78
8.41,
13.49
Influenza B – HK
0.98
0.65, 1.34
1.12
0.78, 1.53
1.37
0.95, 1.86
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
0.17
0.11, 0.23
0.17
0.11, 0.23
0.17
0.11, 0.23
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 –
HK
0.19
0.14, 0.26
0.10
0.08, 0.13
0.09
0.07, 0.12
Influenza B – HK
1.02
0.75, 1.54
0.89
0.65, 1.28
0.73
0.54, 1.05
Influenza A(H3N2) – US
6.19
4.28, 8.90
6.16
4.32, 8.88
6.19
4.29, 8.81
𝜃
1/𝜃
8