G/Acc. Math 3 – Summary Statistics Name: _____________________________ GPS Accelerated Math 3 Unit 3 Standards MA3D1. Using simulation, students will develop the idea of the central limit theorem. MA3D2. Using student-generated data from random samples of at least 30 members, students will determine the margin of error and confidence interval for a specified level of confidence. MA3D3. Students will use confidence intervals and margin of error to make inferences from data about a population. Technology is used to evaluate confidence intervals, but students will be aware of the ideas involved. Vocabulary and Formulas Central Limit Theorem: Choose a simple random sample of size n from any population with mean and standard deviation . When n is large (at least 30), the sampling distribution of the sample mean x is approximately normal with mean and standard deviation n . Choose a simple random sample of size n from a large population with population parameter p having some characteristic of interest. Then the sampling distribution of the sample proportion p̂ is approximately normal with mean p and standard deviation p 1 p n . This approximation becomes more and more accurate as the sample size n increases, and it is generally considered valid if the population is much larger than the sample, i.e. np 10 and n(1 – p) 10. The CLT allows us to use normal calculations to determine probabilities about sample proportions and sample means obtained from populations that are not normally distributed. Confidence Interval is an interval for a parameter, calculated from the data, usually in the form estimate margin of error. The confidence level gives the probability that the interval will capture the true parameter value in repeated samples. Margin of Error is the value in the confidence interval that says how accurate we believe our estimate of the parameter to be. The margin of error is comprised of the product of the z-score and the standard deviation (or standard error of the estimate). The margin of error can be decreased by increasing the sample size or decreasing the confidence level. Parameter is a number that describes the population. A parameter is a fixed number, but in practice we do not know its value because we cannot examine the entire population. Sample Mean is a statistic measuring the average of the observations in the sample. It is written as x . The mean of the population, a parameter, is written as . Sample Proportion is a statistic indicating the proportion of successes in a particular sample. It is written as p̂ . The population proportion, a parameter, is written as p. Sampling Distribution of a statistics is the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population. Sampling Variability refers to the fact that the value of a statistic varies in repeated random sampling. Statistic is a number that describes a sample. The value of the statistics is known when we have taken a sample, but it can change from sample to sample. We often use a statistic to estimate an unknown parameter. ENDURING UNDERSTANDINGS As the sample size increases, the value of a statistic approaches the true value of the population parameter, the standard deviation of the sample means is sample proportions is p 1 p n n , and the standard deviation of the . These formulas for the standard deviation are valid as long as the population is at least 10 times the size of the sample. The Central Limit Theorem allows us to use normal probability calculations, given certain conditions are met, for sample means and proportions even if the original distributions are nonnormal. Confidence intervals provide a range of values that estimate the population parameter. The margin of error, often cited in media articles, tells how accurate we believe our estimate of the parameter to be. To decrease the margin of error, we could increase the sample size or decrease how confident we need the result to be.