Ch 10: Sampling Distributions D: parameter – a number that describes the population. In statistical practice, the value of the parameter is not known because we can’t examine the entire population. D: statistic – a number that can be computed from the sample data without making use of any known parameters. We often use a statistic to approximate an unknown parameter. Ex 10.1 Current Population Survey mean income, x = $58, 208 statistic? or parameter? *statistics come from the sample, parameters come from populations = mean of a population (parameter), x = mean of the sample = average of the observations (statistic) Ex 10.2 DMS (dimethyl sulfide) - “off odors” in wine = parameter of the population estimates x = Law of Large Numbers – Draw observations at random from any population with finite mean, . As # of 28 40 28 33 20 31 29 27 17 21 observations increases, x of observed values gets closer and closer to the mean, of the population Ex 10.3 In Ex 10.2, = 25 See Fig 10.1 x1 28, x2 40, x2nd x3rd x4th x5th Sampling distributions – take a large sample of size 10 from the population. Calculate the sample mean, x for each sample, make a histogram of x . Examine the distribution of the histogram for shape, center, spread, & outliers. D: simulation – computer software to imitate chance behavior D: sampling distribution of a statistic – the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population See Fig 10.2 1)shape (looks Normal) 2)Center = 25, x = 24.95 3) Spread standard deviation = 2.217, = 7 *If x is the mean of the SRS of size n drawn from a large population with mean, and standard deviation, , then the mean of the sampling distribution of x is and standard deviation is n ( M both) *mean of the statistic , x is the same as the mean, of the population x is an unbiased estimator of parameter, “correct on the average” In many samples, averages are less variable than individual observations * If individual observations have a N(,) distribution, then the sample mean, x , of n independent observations has a N(, ) distribution n Ex 10.5 DMS “wine smell” = 25, n = 10, = 7 standard deviation = *results of large samples less variable than results of small samples See Fig 10.3 Central Limit Theorem – Draw an SRS of size n from any population with mean, and finite standard deviation, . When n is large, the sampling distribution of the sample mean, x is approx. Normal, N(, ) n Exponential distribution 25 obs 2 obs 10 obs 1 obs Ex 10.6 See Fig 10.4 Ex 10.7 = 1, n = 70, = 1 1 A/C unit 70 units Find the probability that the average maintenance time exceeds 50 min. standard dev = N( ) 50 min = hr P(X > ) Prob, P( x > .83) = A variable that continues to be described by the same distribution when observed over time is in statistical control. D: control charts – statistical tools that monitor a process & alert us when the process has been disturbed or out of control. D: process- monitoring conditions – measure a quantitative variable, x that has a Normal distribution of X as long as the process is in control OVER Ex 10.8 computer monitors involving tension of fine wires - proper tension = 275mV , = 43 mV There were 4 monitors each hour See Table 10.1 standard dev = Using the 68-95-99.7 Rule, 99.7% were between? x control chart : 1) plot means, x of regular samples of size n against time 2) draw horizontal center line at 3) draw horizontal control limits at 3 / n (Any x that doesn’t fall between the control limits is “out of control” See Fig 10.6 Ex 10.9 In Fig 10.6, no “out of control” values Now see Fig 10.7 & Fig 10.8 “out of control” *control charts focus on process itself rather than individual products D: natural tolerances – The 68-95-99.7 Rule tells us that almost all measurements will lie in the range 3 Do not mix this up with the range 3 / n for individual measurements of expected range of sample means! Ex 10.10 In Ex 10.8, find the natural tolerances where proper tension = 275mV , = 43 mV