ICRAF Project Profiles
1. Temporal and spatial distribution of tree cover and its hydrological and climate effects in
East Africa: Deeper knowledge of the local patterns of climate variability in the past century
is essential to understand local knowledge and resilience strategies of agriculture and food
systems. However in Africa longer term climate information and its consequences are scarce
due to poor spatial and temporal weather data measures. Water shortage and excess linked
to variable rainfall may well be the most immediate consequence of global climate change
affecting human livelihoods. Human land use and actual land cover interact with the
hydrological cycle and climate at local (micro), landscape and regional (meso) and global
(macro) scale. The two-way relationship between forests and climate has a long history of
scientific discourse. However, most public discourse on the influence of changes in tree
cover on climate became focused on the carbon emissions and their contribution to
greenhouse gas effects rather than on relations with rainfall. Specific teleconnections relate
rainfall dynamics at any specific site to land use and water vapour transport pathways.
Government-mandated water use charges for payments for ecosystem services (PES) exist
in some African countries but their use in enhancing actual water related ecosystem services
covering the full hydrological cycle is still evolving as rainbow water science is new. Hence
the PhD study on “Assessing temporal variation in terrestrial rainfall recycling within Africa
using dendrochronological and isotopic techniques of analysis” will use the technique of
dendrochronology and stable isotopes and modeling to reconstruct long term climate
history and assess the impact and evidence of landuse induced historical shifts in rainfall
patterns between long cycle (ocean water vapour  precipitation) and short cycle (regional
evapotranspiration  precipitation) water used in tree photosynthesis in different seasons
and years. The research will involve use of existing tree ring samples and additional field
sampling, analysis of temporal patterns in isotope concentrations in growth rings, spacetime descriptions of inferred long- and shortcycle water resources used by the trees, and
ways to relate the latter to known vegetation change along the atmospheric pathways.
2. Investment models for agroforestry interventions: Current approaches to planning and
implementing agroforestry programs and projects do not adequately account for all the
costs, benefits and risks associated with alternative investments. For example social and
environmental costs and benefits for different stakeholder groups are often not sufficiently
considered, nor are project implementation risks. Unfortunately there is limited available
data on costs and benefits associated with different agroforestry value chains under
different conditions to form a sound basis for planning interventions. On the other hand
there is much evidence from expert knowledge that is currently under-utilized. The PhD
study “Investment models for agroforestry interventions in Eastern and Southern Africa:
ex-ante appraisal of selected agroforestry value chains using business analysis techniques”
will deploy and adapt business analysis techniques to provide an approach for probabilistic
ex-ante appraisal of selected agroforestry value chains that combines both available data
and expert knowledge. Value chains could include fruit trees, fodder shrubs, fertilizer trees,
Allanblackia, etc. The methods to be applied are Applied Information Economics, value-of-
information analysis and Bayesian Networks. The investment modelling framework would
include a probability management system for capturing and managing probability
distributions on production economics and other commonly occurring variables that can be
readily used to support wider application of the models in Africa. The PhD would include
several complete case studies, as well as a thorough review and methods comparison. The
work will be based in Kenya and linked to ICRAF’s Science Domain on Land Health Decisions
and to the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems (WLE).
3. The ICRAF-ILRI three year research project “Local Governance and Adapting to Climate
Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (LGACC), funded by USAID focuses on semi-arid areas of
Burkina Faso and Kenya characterized by livestock and mixed crop-livestock production
systems. In particular, the study looks at areas where communities are highly dependent on
communal land and natural resources that are exposed to significant climate shifts. The
general objective of LGACC is to identify characteristics of land governance systems and
property right regimes most likely to increase household adaptive capacity across agropastoral areas of sub-Sahara Africa. In particular, the project aims to a) Understand the
influence of governance, including institutions and property rights regimes on the capacity
to adapt to climate change; b) Document the role that social differentiation plays with
respect to access to and management of communally-held natural resources and how
existing governance systems may reinforce or reduce social inequalities; c) Share lessons
learned with local partners and policy makers and jointly develop forward-looking
development scenarios that factor in future expected changes in climate and other relevant
drivers of change; and d) Provide a decision-support tool that helps stakeholders take better
informed decisions regarding the types of policies, investments, and interventions most
likely to contribute to successful climate change adaptation in different ecological and socioeconomic conditions. The project employs a case study approach, and uses mixed methods.
The project team will furthermore collaborate with national agricultural research
institutions, relevant ministries and subnational agencies, locally operating NGOs and other
partners in both countries. ICRAF and ILRI both endeavor to strengthen the capacity (for
example the capacity for future adaptation planning) of these partner organizations.The
project will run for three years, from 2015 to 2017. The PhD study “Assessing governance
systems and land and tree tenure for enhancing community resilience in agro-pastoral
areas of Kenya” will contribute to this project.
4. The mainstreaming of impact assessment in the management of development projects has
resulted in increased effort to measure and attribute socio economic and biophysical
changes to project interventions. Consequently, there has been considerable effort to
develop methods, capacity and guidelines to gather and analyze data pertaining to a range
of social and environmental indicators. Geo spatial techniques, including GIS and remote
sensing have a possibility to support this process with advantage of being impartial and
synoptic, monitoring changes over large areas in a cost effective manner. The World
Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) is piloting the application of remote sensing for project impact
assessment in a number of global initiatives. The proposed PhD candidate will work to
advance these efforts and address gaps, while doing research to explore the potential and
promote the uptake of remote sensing and related geo spatial techniques in the practice of
project impact assessment. The research will be carried out in the framework of the
Ethiopian part of the ICRAF led DRYDEV (Drylands Development) program, which aims to
develop agriculture in semi arid drylands of Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso
through interventions related to natural resource management that supports agricultural
production, value chain development, and institutional strengthening. The PhD candidate
will explore the needs and support the application of remote sensing and associated
geospatial techniques in the practice of development project impact assessments in general
and in the context of the DRYDEV program in particular.
5. Dynamics of adoption of improved mango cultivars and its role towards food and nutrition
security in Kenya in the face of climate change: Integrating fruit trees such as mango
(Mangifera indica L.) into smallholder farms can contribute to adaptation to climate change
and will also address the current low fruit consumption levels in Kenya, which are key drivers
of micronutrient deficiency. Fruits provide important vitamins and minerals, often lacking in
the monotonous staple-based diets. Besides closing specific ‘nutrient gaps’, fruits can
improve food security of farming households through diversified income generation. While
traditional mango landraces are mainly grown for home consumption, improved Kenyan and
introduced cultivars are mainly produced for sale. However, data on factors influencing
current adoption and future suitability of improved cultivars is lacking. The overall objective
of this study is to evaluate if adoption of improved mango cultivars contributes towards
better food and nutrition security in the lower Eastern region of Kenya and how cultivar
suitability could change due to the projected climate change. Specific objectives are to (i)
assess the current spatial distribution patterns and productivity of mango cultivars along an
elevation and humidity gradient, (ii) identify the socio-economic and agro-climatic factors
influencing adoption of improved mango cultivars, and (iii) model the suitability of currently
grown mango cultivars in the face of future climate change with the aim of developing
strategies for adaptation of mango production systems. Tree inventories and farmer
interviews will be carried out, and descriptive and explanatory statistics including linear
multivariate regression modeling will be performed to identify factors influencing adoption
and tree productivity. Cultivar suitability mapping for future climate projections will be
obtained through simulations and regional climate models. Study findings will help to
identify better adapted cultivars for the surveyed agro-climatic zones. The recommendations
developed will help extension workers and farmers to select better performing mango
cultivars under current and future climatic conditions, which will contribute to increased
incomes and improved food and nutrition security of farmers’ families. This study will be
part of ICRAF’s work on role of fruit trees in human nutrition, which is embedded in its
contribution to CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture Nutrition for Human Health (AN4H).