DRAFT#3 GRL 1 3 Supplementary Information for “Gas-hydrate dissociation prolongs acidification of the Anthropocene oceans” - GRL 4 Bernard P. Boudreau1, Yiming Luo1, Filip J.R. Meysman2, Jack J. Middelburg3 and Gerald R. 5 Dickens4 6 Model Equations 7 [1] The equations governing the concentration of dissolved carbonate species in each box are similar to those in Boudreau et al. [2010]. They are based on the box model illustrated in Figs 1 and S1, the latter of which shows the mass flows. 2 8 9 10 11 12 Figure S1. Flows and their symbols 13 14 15 [2] In the oceans, we model the total dissolved CO2 (ΣCO2) (in Gmol/km3) and carbonate alkalinity (CAlk) (in Geq/km3): 16 1 DRAFT#3 GRL 17 [ΣCO2] = [CO2] + [HCO3-] + [CO32-] (S1) 18 [CAlk] = [HCO3-] + 2 [CO32-] (S2) 19 20 [3] The conservation equations for these quantities are, respectively: 21 22 Box L (low-latitude surface ocean) 23 (S3) 24 (S4) 25 26 Box H (high-latitude ocean) 27 (S5) 28 (S6) 29 30 Box D (deep ocean) 31 (S7) 32 (S8) 33 34 where VL, VH, VD are the volumes of the oceanic boxes (km3) 35 P is the export of organic matter to the deep ocean 36 B is the export of CaCO3 to the deep ocean 2 (Gmol/a) (Gmol/a) DRAFT#3 37 GRL BD is the dissolution of CaCO3 in the deep ocean, which includes BDS and 38 BPDC, and two other terms as defined in Boudreau et al. [2010] 39 (Gmol/a) 40 Falk is the flux of alkalinity from rivers to the oceans (Gmol/a) 41 Bburial is the flux of CaCO3 to the sediment surface that is buried (Gmol/a) 42 EH and EL are the net CO2 gas exchanges with the atmosphere (Gmol/a) 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Note that the concentration units of Gmol/km3 and Geq/km3 are numerically equivalent to mM and meq/L, respectively. The forms of the components of BD are explained in detail in Boudreau et al. [2010] and not repeated here, but they include BDS, which is the dissolution of CaCO3 arriving at the sediment due to overlying water undersaturation, and BPDC, which is the dissolution of previously deposited carbonate, as calculated via eq (S12) below. 50 52 [4] In addition all the dissolved carbonate species in each box are assumed to be at thermodynamic equilibrium: 53 (S9) 51 54 where Keq is the equilibrium constant (in (Gmol/km3)2 = mM2) for the reaction 55 56 57 [5] In the atmosphere we only model CO2 gas: 58 (S10) 59 60 61 where VA is the volume of the atmosphere Fanth accounts for the anthropogenic emission of fossil-fuel derived CO2 (Gmol/a) 62 63 (km3) The EH and EL are calculated in the form: 3 DRAFT#3 GRL 64 Ei = EX ([CO2]i – ECO2) 65 where subscript i is either H or L, EX is an exchange function calculated as the mean gas transfer coefficient multiplied by the area of the ocean-atmosphere interface (km3/a), and ECO2 is the equilibrium concentration (Gmol/km3), obtained with the atmospheric PCO2 and the solubility. The Ex values are obtained from modeling the assumed pre-industrial CO2-system of the oceans and atmosphere. 66 67 68 69 (S11) 70 71 72 [6] The previously deposited CaCO3 (b) in the sediment is governed by the mass conservation equation [Boudreau, 2013, GRL, 37]: 73 74 db(z,t)/dt = (B/AD + kc([CO32-]D–[CO32-]sat) – (1-φ)wρCaCO3b(z,t))/(ZmixρCaCO3) (S12) 75 76 77 where b(z,t) is the fraction of CaCO3 in the sediment at ocean depth z (dimensionless) 78 B is the export of CaCO3 to the deep ocean (Gmol/km3) 79 AD is the area of the bottom of the ocean 80 kc is the dissolution constant for CaCO3 – see Boudreau [2013] 81 [CO32-]sat is the saturation concentration at depth z 82 w is the burial velocity of the sediment surface 83 ρCaCO3 is the density of CaCO3 (Calcite) (Gmol/km3) 84 Zmix is the sediment mixed layer thickness (km) (km2) (km/a) (Gmol/km3) (km/a) 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 [7] Use of eq (S12) is the main difference of the present model with the treatment in Boudreau et al. [2010]; in that paper, the position of the snowline (the ocean depth where the amount of CaCO3 in the sediment first falls to zero) was calculated by assuming that the “wedge” of sediment between the saturation horizon and the snowline moved (up or down) as a whole with changes in deep ocean saturation. The latter is a simple and convenient approximation that greatly simplifies calculation of the CaCO3 distribution with depth. The approximation is good if acidification is “slow”; unfortunately, we have since found that anthropogenic acidification, and its induced transients, are too fast to be well represented by this assumption. Consequently, we have reverted to explicit calculation of b(z,t) with ocean depth and time, as given by eq (S12). 4 DRAFT#3 GRL 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 [8] Use of eq (S12) predicts a considerably smaller rise in the snowline than the original method in Boudreau et al. [2010a]. This means that the BPDC component of BD that depend on Zsnow, i.e., their eq (10), is larger in our present study and with more dissolution, both Zcc and Zsat do not rise quite as much as indicated in Boudreau et al. [2010]. These changes, in turn, engender small changes in the other components of BD, i.e., BCC, BNS, BDS. These points account for all the differences in the results between the original version of our model and the current version. 105 106 107 108 109 [9] As stated in the paper, this model was also expanded to predict the temperature of each oceanic box, given atmospheric forcing, as well as the dissolved oxygen of each box. The temperature of the atmosphere was calculated from the relationship [Sheffer et al., 2006] 110 111 T = c*ln(P/Po) + To (S13) 112 113 114 115 as stated in the text, where T is in oC. Two values of c where considered, i.e., 1.7 and 4.7. Temperatures for the oceanic boxes were calculated assuming that temperature is simply a scalar tracer and given by 116 (S14) 117 (S15) 118 and 119 (S16) 120 where HL and HH (oC∗km3/a) are net heat exchanges with the atmosphere of the form 121 122 Hi = KAi (TAi – Ti) (S17) 123 5 DRAFT#3 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 GRL where i = H or L, TAi is the atmospheric temperature (oC) above the i ocean box, and KAi is an total area heat transfer coefficient (km3/a), calculated from the steady state, pre-industrial conditions. [10] The model also can calculate the O2 content of the ocean basins, even though this is not used in the present paper – see equation S18 and Figure S5 below. Oxygen is assumed constant in the atmosphere, and the surface boxes are assumed in equilibrium with that value for their calculated temperature. The deep ocean box is then calculated as 132 (S18) 133 134 where ε is the molar ratio of O2 consumption by organic matter oxidation and FCH4 is the flux of CH4 from hydrates if release to the deep ocean and quickly oxidized. 135 136 137 138 [11] The above set of equations is solved numerically (simple Euler integration) and has initial conditions set by modeling a pre-industrial steady state – see Boudreau et al. [2010]. A FORTRAN implementation of this solution method is available by request. 139 140 Initial Conditions 141 [12] The follow were used as initial conditions in our modeling: TCO2 (Gmol/km3) CAlk (Geq/L) T (oC) Box L Box H Box D 2.058 2.185 2.28 2.2739 2.3144 2.3471 21.5 2 2 142 143 As well as: 144 TAL = 22oC 145 TAH = 0oC 146 UT = 24.2 Sv = 7.64x105 km3/a 147 UM = 30 Sv = 9.47x105 km3/a 148 Zsat/Zcc/Z10 = 3.890/4.762/4.739 km 149 PCO2 = 2.83x10-3 atm (respectively) 150 6 DRAFT#3 GRL 151 152 Supplementary Results A153 B 30 Low-Latitude Surface Water IS92a Ocean Release Atm Release o Temperature ( C) 28 26 24 22 20 0 5000 10000 15000 Time (AD) 154 155 6 o Temperature ( C) 5 4 3 2 Deep-Water Temperature IS92a Ocean Release Atm Release 1 0 0 5000 10000 15000 Time (AD) 156 157 C 158 159 Figure S2. 160 deep ocean (C). Temperature histories of the low-latitude atmosphere (A) and surface ocean (B) and the 161 7 DRAFT#3 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 GRL [13] Figure S2 illustrates the temperature evolution of the low-latitude atmospheric and ocean boxes (panels A and B) and that of the deep ocean (panel C), for the IS92a release of CO2 and with additional CO2 from hydrate dissociation as predicted by Yamamoto et al. [2014] into the deep oceans or the atmosphere. The addition of methane-derived CO2 does not lead to a higher temperature maximum, but does delay the return to pre-industrial conditions. The location of the injection of CO2 from methane has only a small effect on the temperature history. [14] The issue of the value of c in eq (S13) was explored in depth and the results are displayed in Figs S3-S5. Figure S3 shows that the value of c has no effect on the predictions for the IS92a emissions, while Fig. S4 shows the same with additional CO2 from gas hydrate melting and oxidation. [15] The mean oxygen in the deep ocean was calculated for the IS92a emissions and with added CO2 from gas hydrate melting and illustrated in Figure S5. There is a small effect on the oxygen value for different values of c, and this is to be expected, as the solubility of O2 is a strong function of temperature. [16] Finally, we explored the effect of the total release of CO2, given that Beaudoin et al. [2014] advocate about twice as much carbon stored in gas hydrates than Yamamoto et al. [2014]. Beaudoin et al. [2014] do not provide a release function, so we simply multiplied the function in Fig. 1B by 2. Some of the resulting predictions are given in Fig. S6. There is a significant long-term decrease in pH, and the pH minimum in deep water is now made lower by the hydrate-sourced CO2. 183 8 DRAFT#3 GRL 184 A 185 B 186 4 Surface Water Omega (Aragonite) 1400 IS92a 1200 C4.7 C1.7 800 P CO2 (ppmv) 1000 600 400 3.5 3 2.5 2 IS92a C4.7 C1.7 1.5 200 1 0 5000 10000 15000 0 5000 Time (AD) 187 10000 15000 Time (AD) 188 189 2.6 0 IS92a C4.7 C1.7 C4.7 C1.7 1 Depth (km) 2 SCO (mM) 2.5 2.4 2 3 IS92a 2.3 Z 4 C4.7 C1.7 sat Z cc 2.2 5 0 190 191 C 5000 10000 15000 0 Time (AD) 5000 10000 15000 Time (AD) D 192 Figure S3. Comparisons of predicted atmospheric CO2 (panel A), Omega of the low-latitude surface 193 ocean (panel B), total CO2 of the deep ocean and the positions of Zsat and Zcc (i.e., CCD) for the two 194 tested vales of c in eq (S13) and the IS92a emissions alone. 9 DRAFT#3 GRL 195 196 A197 B 4 Yamamoto Emissssions C4.7 C1.7 1000 800 2 PCO (ppmv) 1200 600 400 Surface Water Omega (Aragonite) 1400 3 2.5 2 Yamamoto Emissions C4.7 C1.7 1.5 1 200 0 198 3.5 5000 10000 0 15000 5000 10000 15000 Time (AD) Time (AD) 0 Yamamoto Emissions C4.7 C4.7 C1.7 C1.7 Depth (km) 1 2 3 Z sat 4 Z cc 5 0 5000 10000 15000 Time (AD) 199 200 C 201 D 202 Figure S4. Comparisons of predicted atmospheric CO2 (panel A), Omega of the low-latitude 203 surface ocean (panel B), total CO2 of the deep ocean and the positions of Zsat and Zcc (i.e., CCD) 204 for the two tested vales of c in eq (S13) and the IS92a plus Yamamoto et al. [2014] 205 gas-hydrate-based emissions. 206 10 DRAFT#3 GRL 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 B 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 Deep-Water Oxygen (mM) Deep-Water Oxygen (mM) A 215 0.15 0.1 IS92a 0.05 0.15 0.1 Yamamoto Emissions C4.7 C1.7 0.05 C4.7 C1.7 0 0 0 5000 10000 15000 0 Time (AD) 216 5000 10000 Time (AD) 217 Figure S5. 218 tested vales of c in equation (S13) and the IS92a plus Yamamoto et al. [2014] gas-hydrate-based 219 emissions. Comparisons of predicted mean oxygen concentrations in the deep ocean for the two 220 221 222 223 224 11 15000 DRAFT#3 GRL 8.1 3 8 2.8 SCO (mM) pH 7.9 2 7.8 2.6 Surface pH 2.4 7.7 IS92a Yamamoto et al. 2X Deep Total CO 2.2 7.6 7.5 2 0 A 2 IS92a Yamamoto et al. 2X 5000 10000 15000 Time (yr) 225 0 5000 10000 15000 Time (yr) B 226 8 0 Deep pH Critical Horizons IS92a Yamamoto et al. 2X 7.9 (km) cc 4 7.5 7.4 5 0 228 3 Z 7.6 C 2 &Z 7.7 sat pH 7.8 227 Zsat (km) Zcc (km) 1 5000 10000 15000 0 Time (yr) 5000 10000 15000 Time (yr) D 229 230 Figure S6. Predicted evolution of the surface ocean pH (low latitude) – panel A, deep water ΣCO2 – 231 panel B, deep water pH – panel C, and the positions of the calcite saturation horizon (Zsat) and the 232 carbonate compensation depth (Zcc) as driven by a doubling of the Yamamoto et al. [2014] release. 233 234 12 DRAFT#3 GRL 235 References 236 Beaudoin, Y.C. et al. (2014), Frozen Heat: A UNEP Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates, Vol. 1, 237 United Nations Environmental Programme, GROD-Arendal, 77 pp. 238 239 Boudreau, B. P., Middelburg, J. J., Hofmann, A. F. and Meysman, F. J. R. (2010), Ongoing transient 240 Boudreau, B.P. (2013), Carbonate dissolution rates at the deep ocean floor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 241 1-5, doi:10.1029/2012GL054231. 242 Scheffer, M., Brovkin, V. and Cox, P.M. (2006), Positive feedback between global warming and 243 atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10702, 244 doi:10.1029/2005/\GL025044. 245 Yamamoto, A., Yamanaka, Y. and Abe-Ouchi, A. (2014), Ocean oxygen depletion due to 246 decomposition of submarine methane hydrate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5075-5083, 247 doi:10.1002/2014GL060483. in carbonate compensation, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 24, GB4010. 248 249 13