Running head: TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN Tornados in Michigan Jessica Stewart, Anna Cunningham, Ryan Peggar, Tonya Thompson Ferris State University 1 TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 2 Abstract Tornadoes are an example of a natural disaster that can occur in any area at any time. Natural disasters, such as tornadoes, can kill, inflict human suffering, destroy property, and can harm the environment (Veenema, 2007, p. 327).Tornadoes are unpreventable and uncontrollable. There are many factors that need to be considered when looking at the severity of damage a tornado can cause. Some factors to consider are “community preparedness, sophistication of communication systems, and the use of public safety announcements and education on how to respond correctly to the first signs of danger” (Veenema, 2007, p. 328).This type of natural disaster can have impact on the healthcare system because of the direct or indirect cause of injury, psychological effects, and death. Tornadoes are unpredictable, so planning for them is limited.Several steps can be taken to help prepare if a tornado were to occur, but never can be predict the severity of the effects or damage it can cause. TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 3 Tornadoes in Michigan Tornadoes are a devastating natural disaster that can occur in many areas of the United States. The state of Michigan is just as likely to have tornados occur as the states in line with “tornado alley”. The term “tornado alley” is sometimes used to identify the area of the United States in which more tornadoes strike than in any other place in the world (Weather Almanac). According to Veenema, “approximately 1,000 tornadoes occur annually in the United States” (2007, p. 334). ”Because weather related events are ubiquitous and can occur without warning, humans have had little recourse but to prepare to respond to the wrath of the environment in which they live” (Veenema, 2007, p. 327). Summary of Tornadoes in Michigan According to the Disaster Center, Michigan ranks 20 out of the 50 United States for frequency of Tornadoes, 5 for number of deaths, 8 for injuries, and 22 for cost of damages (Disaster Center, n.d.). The damage caused by tornadoes is scored using the Fujita scale. The Fujita Tornado Damage Scale was developed in 1971 by T. Theodore Fujita of the University of Chicago (NOAA, n.d.) This scale consists of six different levels of tornadoes. Fujita 0 is the least severe and signifies Gale winds that are less than 73 miles per hour (MPH) causing light damage (NOAA, n.d.). The highest level of tornado is Fujita 5 which produces an estimated wind of 261-318 MPH and causes incredible damage (NOAA, n.d.). There are only two recorded F5 tornadoes in Michigan and they occurred in 1953 and 1956 (Tornado History Project, 2012). The tenth deadliest tornadoes between the years 1950-2011 occurred in Flint, MI, on June 8, 1953 (NOAA, 2011). This tornado was one of the two F5 tornadoes to take place in Michigan. This tornado was responsible for 157 fatalities (NOAA, 2011). TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 4 The vast majority of tornadoes in Michigan range between F2 tornadoes and F0 tornadoes (Tornado History Project, 2012). The second highest ranking tornado, the F4, has not taken place since 1977 (Tornado History Project, 2012). This information demonstrates that the level of severe tornadoes has decreased over the years. While the number of tornadoes fluctuates over the years, the severity of damage caused by tornadoes has decreased over time. There has not been a tornado that has accounted for more than five fatalities since 1977 (Tornado History Project, 2012). Risk for Tornadoes in Michigan Although Michigan is not one of the states in “tornado alley”, there is history of a significant amount of tornados that have occurred. Between 1951 and 2010 there have been 953 tornadoes in the State of Michigan accounting for approximately 260 deaths and 844 injuries (Tornado History Project, 2012). The risk for tornadoes occurring in Michigan has neither decreased nor increased. The number of tornadoes in Michigan has fluctuated over the years and occurrences vary from year to year. For instance, in 2010 there were 27 tornadoes leading to one fatality and 15 injuries (Tornado History Project, 2012). However, in 2009 there were only three tornadoes in Michigan and no injuries or fatalities were recorded (Tornado History Project, 2012). The trend of increasing and decreasing in number of tornadoes from 0 to 39 has been recorded since 1951. The average number of tornadoes in Michigan in one year is 16 (Michigan State Police Emergency Management Division, n.d.). The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) compiles data and statistics on various weather events, including tornadoes. On average, according to the SPC, about 1300 tornadoes occur in the U.S. every year. Michigan’s average yearly tornado count from 1990-2011 was 16 tornadoes annually (NCDC, 2012). Precise counts of tornadoes are TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 5 difficult to obtain because they are very brief weather events and recording them is difficult. Also, tornado spotting and recording methods have changed substantially over the past decade and as a result, current official tornado records are believed to be incomplete (Edwards, 2012). Therefore, it is difficult to identify reliable trends in the data, thus difficult to determine if level of risk is increasing or decreasing. Does global warming cause more tornadoes? Climatologists have in the past theorized that global warming will lead to more severe weather, which in turn cause tornadoes (Choi and Fisher, 2003). The SPC rightly points out that “global warming” does not directly cause tornadoes, as tornadoes are a product of thunderstorms (Edwards, 2012). So then the SPC asks: does global warming influence tornado occurrences? The SPC asserts that at this time, the answer to that question is not known. They cite a National Science and Technology Council report that states: "Trends in other extreme weather events that occur at small spatial scales--such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, and dust storms--cannot be determined at the present time due to insufficient evidence" (Edwards, 2012). This is because climate trends occur over many years and over large areas of the world, whereas tornadoes are very brief weather events. However, the SPC goes on to point out that climate models can indicate changes in three of the ingredients of thunderstorms (moisture, instability, and wind shear) (Edwards, 2012). However, when considering global warming, the results are mixed. Global warming may increase moisture, while wind shear would probably decrease. The SPC then concludes that with the insufficient evidence, along with inconsistent tornado reporting, it is not possible to say whether the risk for tornadoes is increasing or decreasing (Edwards, 2012). Health Implications TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 6 Health implications related to disastrous tornadoes can impact the population in many ways. Tornadoes can directly and indirectly cause injuries and death. The extreme high winds of a tornado turn objects into flying debris and can cause direct harm such as head injuries, soft tissue injuries, and secondary injuries such as wound infections can occur. (Veenema, 2007, p. 334). According to Veenema, “tornadoes can have a wind velocity of up to 200 miles per hour and generate sufficient force to destroy even massive buildings” (2007, p 334). Indirect injuries occur at times when people are trying to reach shelter, such as falling down stairs or a burning candle starts a fire due to power outage from the tornado (Daley, 2005). Heart attacks and strokes can occur due to previous medical conditions and the stress of a tornado. The destruction path tornadoes leave behind can cause stress-related disorders. These disorders can be caused from the loss of shelter, loved ones, and belongings (Veenema, 2007, p.334). Everyone is at risk of injury during a tornado but some groups of the population are at a greater risk. People living in mobile homes were at a greater risk of suffering from injuries or death from a tornado then those seeking shelter in permanently anchor-based houses. (Daley, 2005) Those that found shelter in a motor vehicle were less likely to suffer injuries then those searching shelter outside under bridge ways and ditches. (Daley, 2005) The elderly were an age group more likely to suffer from injuries during a tornado due to debility and not being alerted soon enough. (Daley, 2005) The safest shelter was found to be the basement or a storm shelter. Tornadoes have a huge impact on the health care system. The destruction caused from tornadoes creates an overflow of hospital admissions and emergency department outpatient visits. (Daley, 2005) Hospitals must activate there disaster plan to adjust to the increased flow of patients. Some health care workers might have to stay at the hospital after their shifts have been TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 7 completed to help because other employers might not be able to report to work due to road conditions. Prevention and Mitigation There is no way to prevent the occurrence of tornadoes, but there are measures one can take to prevent injury and fatality that may result from the devastation of tornadoes. Households should develop a disaster plan in order to be prepared for tornado activity. One of the most important aspects of a disaster plan includes identifying a safe room within the home (NESEC, n.d.). A safe room should be located on the lowest level of the home and should be an area that does not have windows (NESEC, n.d.). Additionally, this area should not be in a location in which heavy household furniture is located directly above it which may fall and injure or trap people (NESEC, n.d.). Trailers, mobile homes, and RVs are not safe locations for safe rooms and households that reside in these homes should develop a plan to get shelter at a nearby location that does offer structural safety (NESEC, n.d.). Household disaster plans can help reduce the risk of bodily injury and death. Each household should also develop a disaster supply kit that contains enough supplies for a minimum of three days. Important items include flashlights, battery powered radio, water, nonperishable foods, and heavy clothing and padding to protect each person from debris and heavy objects (American Red Cross, 2009). Household tornado drills should be conducted to ensure that all family members are familiar with what to do in the event of a tornado (American National Red Cross, 2009). Individuals should also know what their community’s warning system consists of such as sirens (American National Red Cross, 2009). The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) defines mitigation as “the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters” (FEMA, 2011, para. 1). TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 8 Communities that build storm shelters and provide alarm systems to inform members of tornado activity demonstrate mitigation (NESEC, n.d.). Other very important aspects of mitigation include developing building codes that require structurally sound building plans to prevent collapse and entrapment, ensuring that schools conduct routine tornado drills, and requiring businesses to post signs with disaster plans for those locations (NESEC, n.d.). Training for first responders and medical personnel also is essential for mitigation (Government of Dane County, 2009). Conclusion In conclusion, these “rapidly whirling, funnel-shaped air spirals that emerge from a violent thunderstorm and reach the ground” have potential to cause great harm to people and destroy an area (Veenema, 2007, p. 334). The risk for tornadoes in Michigan has neither decreased of increased. Throughout time, the number of tornadoes has fluctuated. However, the number of F3-F5 tornadoes has decreased significantly since the 1950s. Although there is no way to truly predict when these violent storms are going to occur, one can only be prepared if the event were to occur and know how to take action to stay safe. History has proven that tornadoes can occur in the state of Michigan, and with the unpredictable weather in the area, there is potential for a tornado to strike again. TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 9 References American Red Cross. (2009). Be Cross Ready: Winter Storm Safety Checklist. Retrieved from: http://www.arcwestmi.org/Portals/0/Documents/Administrative/WinterStorms.pdf American National Red Cross. (2009). Be Red Cross Ready: Tornado Safety Checklist. Retrieved from: http://www.redcross.org/wwwfiles/Documents/pdf/Preparedness/checklists/Tornado.pdf Choi, A., & Fisher, A. (2003). The impacts of socioeconomic development and climate change on severe weather catastrophe losses: Mid-Atlantic region (mar) and the U.S. Climatic Change, 58, 140-170. Daley, W., Brown, S., Archer, P., Kruger, E., Jordan, F., Batts, D., & Mallonee, S. (2005). Risk of tornado-related death and injury in Oklahoma, May 3, 1999. American Journal Of Epidemiology, 161(12), 1144-1150. Disaster Center. (n.d.). Michigan Tornadoes. Retrieved from: http://www.disastercenter.com/michigan/tornado.html Edwards, R. (2012). National Weather Service (NWS), Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The online tornado FAQ Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2011, November 3). Mitigation. Retrieved from: http://www.fema.gov/government/mitigation.shtm Government of Dane County. (2009). Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. Retrieved from: http://danedocs.countyofdane.com/webdocs/PDF/ems/mitigation_plan/Dane%20County %20Chapter%201%20Introduction.pdf Michigan State Police Emergency Management Division. (n.d.). Michigan Tornado Safety. Retrieved from: http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp-tornado_tips_8781_7.pdf TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 10 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). (2012). U.S. tornado climatology. Retrieved from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate /severeweather /tornadoes.html. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (n.d.). Fujita Tornado Damage Scale. Retrieved from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f-scale.html National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2011, August 19). 2011 Tornado Information. Retrieved from: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_tornado_information.html The Northeast States Emergency Consortium. (n.d.). Tornadoes. Retrieved from: http://www.nesec.org/hazards/tornadoes.cfm Tornados: a preparedness Guide Including Safety Information for Schools (1992, September). In U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved March 19, 2012, from http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/edu/safety/tornado.pdf Tornado History Project (2012). Tornadoes in Michigan. Retrieved from: http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/Michigan Veenema, T. G. (2007). Disaster Nursing and Emergency Preparedness for chemical, Biological, and Radiological Terrorism and Other Hazards (2nd ed.). N.p.: Spring Publishing Company. TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 11 Grading Rubric for The Group Project: Natural or Environmental Disaster A. Introduction B. Summary of a type of major natural or environmental disaster that includes the severity of damage C. Discussion as to whether the risk for this disaster is increasing or decreasing D. An analysis of the health implications related to this disaster that include the population at risk (affected population), the risk of morbitity and mortality, and the potential impact on the health care system E. Provision of prevention and/or mitigation measures that are supported with the literature Below Expectation (2 points) The introduction is below average or missing. The focus of the paper is not clear as well as what will be discussed in the text of the paper (9 points) There is below average summary of a major natural or environmental disaster that does not include the severity of damage and is not supported with the literature. (9 points) There is a below average discussion of whether the risk for this disaster is increasing or decreasing. The position is not supported with the literature. (9 points) There is a below average analysis of the health implications related to this disaster and the population at risk, the risk of morbidity and mortality and the potential impact on the health care system. The analysis is not supported with the literature. ( 9 points) There is below average provision of prevention and/or mitigation measures that are supported with the literature. These measures are not supported with the literature. Needs Improvement (3 points) There is an average introduction to the paper. The focus of the paper may be somewhat unclear as well as what will be discussed in the text of the paper (12 points) There is an average summary of a major natural or environmental disaster that includes the severity of damage. The summary may not be clearly supported with the literature. (12 points) There is an average discussion of whether the risk for this disaster is increasing or decreasing. The position may not be clearly supported with the literature. (12 points) There is an average analysis of the health implications related to this disaster and the population at risk, the risk of morbidity and mortality and the potential impact on the health care system. The analysis is not clearly supported with the literature. (12 points) There is an average provision of prevention and/or mitigation measures. These measures are not clearly supported with the literature. Meets Expectations (4 points) There is a good introduction to the paper that includes a clear focus to the paper and what will be discussed in the text of the paper Exceptional (5 points) There is an excellent introduction to the paper that includes a very clear focus of the paper and what will be discussed in the text of the paper (14 points) There is a good summary of a major natural or environmental disaster that includes the severity of damage and is supported with the literature. (14 points) There is a good discussion of whether the risk for this disaster is increasing or decreasing. The position is clearly supported with the literature. (13 points) There is a good analysis of the health implications related to this disaster and the population at risk, the risk of morbidity and mortality and the potential impact on the health care system. The analysis is clearly supported with the literature. (15 points) There is an excellent summary of a major natural or environmental disaster that includes the severity of damage and is supported with the literature. (15 points) There is an excellent discussion of whether the risk for this disaster is increasing or decreasing. The position is clearly supported with the literature. (15 points) There is an excellent analysis of the health implications related to this disaster and the population at risk, the risk of morbidity and mortality and the potential impact on the health care system. The analysis is clearly supported with the literature. (13 points) There is a good provision of prevention and/or mitigation measures that are supported with the literature (15 points) There is an excellent provision of prevention and/or mitigation measures that are supported with the literature TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN F. Conclusion or Summary G. Data & Information H. APA Format; Spelling & Grammar; Clarity of ideas (2 points) There is a below average summary or conclusion related to the key points in the paper. All new information is introduced or conclusion is missing. (14 points) Less than 3 resources beyond the textbook are used to support your plan. Less than 50% are current within the last 5 years. (4 points) APA format is below average; >15 errors in grammar or spelling; Ideas are not clearly presented 12 (3 points) There is an average summary or conclusion related to the key points in the paper. Mostly new information is introduced. (4 points) There is a good summary or conclusion related to the key points in the paper. Some new information may be introduced. (5 points) There is an excellent summary or conclusion related to the key points in the paper. No new information is introduced. (16 points) A minimum of 3 resources beyond the textbook are used to support your plan. 50% are current within the last 5 years. (18 points) A minimum of 4 resources beyond the textbook are used to support your plan. 75% are current within the last 5 years. (8 points) APA format is good; 5-10 errors in grammar or spelling; Ideas are clearly presented (20 points) A minimum of 5 resources beyond the textbook are used to support your plan. All are current within the last 5 years. (10 points) APA format is excellent; <5 errors in grammar or spelling; Ideas are clearly presented (6 points) APA format is average; 11-15 errors in grammar or spelling; Ideas are almost always clearly presented Ryan, Tonya, Jessica & Anna – What can I say, other than your paper demonstrates excellence in content and research. Your group selected a very relevant and critical topic for populations all over Michigan and the country/world. The affects of this type of disaster and its relationship to nursing and health care is of concern. Your work and writing is current, exact, and utmost informative. The grammar, spelling, and writing style and technique as a group should have resounded as one voice, and for the most part it did. The one issue that I caution you about is the number of direct quotes and block quotes that you used in your paper. If you review APA, use only direct quotes when there is no other way to say or interpret what you read. Otherwise you should be synthesizing the information and paraphrasing – not direct quoting. In a paper of this size 2 or 3 would be acceptable, more than that and it is not your writing, it is someone else’s and you just pieced them together. Be aware of this for the future, in all classes. TORNADOES IN MICHIGAN 13 The major concern that I have for your paper is the APA formatting. As far as the formatting, it was good, but there were many oversights and imperfections with sentence spacing and the incorrect placement of periods. If you would have reviewed your paper for consistency, you may have picked up on it and would not have lost so many formatting points. You should all be very proud of your teamwork and collaboration on this project. Excellent work, individually, and as a cohesive team! Paper score = 94%